Basically, I need to give them some simple answer that is least likely to raise eyebrows when they’re trying to publish. The post Stan talk in Seattle on Tuesday, May 17 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
The post Leicester City and Donald Trump: How to think about predictions and longshot victories? There’s been a lot of discussion in the sports and political media about what happened here. The 14th best team in the EPL is roughly equivalent to the 20th best team in MLB or the NBA or the NFL, in terms of distance from the top. There are a bunch of quotes out there from various pundits last year saying that Trump had zero chance of winning to the Republican primary. In contrast, if I make accurate predictions, ok, fine, I’m supposed to be able to do that.
Basically, I applied a bit of auto-peer-review to my own hypothetical blog post on Adams and Trump, and I rejected it!
I think the chance of a Sanders-Trump matchup is so low that we dona€™t have to think too hard about this one! A big difference between EPL and Tyson-Douglas is that there were only two potential winners of the boxing match.
Mark Palko points us to this op-ed in which psychiatrist Richard Friedman writes: There are also easy and powerful ways to enhance learning in young people. The post Happy talk, meet the Edlin factor appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. At the end of eight weeks, students who had been encouraged to view their intelligence as changeable scored significantly better (85 percent) than controls (54 percent) on a test of the material they learned in the seminar. Just like the original Jaws 2, this story features neither Richard Dreyfus nor Steven Spielberg.
Match the resonses of large nationally representative sample to supporting these policy items. I let this languish in my inbox for awhile until Kahan taunted me by letting me know he’d posted the solution online. But before I give you our guesses, and before I tell you the actual answers (courtesy of Kahan), give it a try yourself. If you finish early, feel free to click on the random ass pictures that I’ve inserted to prevent you from inadverently spotting the answers before completing the test!
OK, as I said, it’s tricky to do the scoring because Kahan switched some of the colors on us, but if you go back to the top image and compare, you’ll see that we got 8 out of 10 correct!
Indeed, if you go with Kahan’s absurdly complicated scoring scheme, we got a perfect score of 14.75!
The post Big Belly Roti on Amsterdam Ave and 123 St appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
We may all have our biases, but I’m curious about cutting through those to what useful investigation of the data tells us.A  What does the research behind these say?A  Is that research good, or does it fall prey to low power and that pesky overgrown garden you keep writing about?
The topic is interesting in itself and is of particular importance to me because nearly every day I’m thinking about what I can do to keep Stan team members happy and productive, and we do have some mix of structure we can impose and extrinsic rewards we can give out. Finally, the relation between common sense, individual experiences, and statistical evidence is unclear here. Jim Greiner writes: The Access to Justice Lab is a startup effort, initially supported by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation with sufficient funds for three years, headed by Jim Greiner at Harvard Law School. Regular readers will know that Bill James was one of my inspirations for becoming a statistician. The post Bill James does model checking appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Total Baseball has Glenn Hubbard rated as a better player than Pete Rose, Brooks Robinson, Dale Murphy, Ken Boyer, or Sandy Koufax, a conclusion which is every bit as preposterous as it seems to be at first blush. To a large extent, this rating is caused by the failure to adjust Hubbard’s fielding statistics for the ground-ball tendency of his pitching staff. Mon: Bill James does model checking Tues: Whata€™s the motivation to do experiments on motivation? The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Paul Alper pointed me to this news article about an economist who got BUSTED for doing algebra on the plane. This dude was profiled by the lady sitting next to him who got suspicious of his incomprehensible formulas. All jokes aside, though, this made me realize how different plane travel is than it used to be. No, the change I’m talking about is in the interactions with the strangers sitting next to me. The post Drive-by appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Someone sent me this question: As a social and political science expert, you analyze data related to everything from public health and clinical research to college football. The post Doing data science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. The post The Puzzle of Paul Meehl: An intellectual history of research criticism in psychology appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. It is not unusual that (e) this ad hoc challenging of auxiliary hypotheses is repeated in the course of a series of related experiments, in which the auxiliary hypothesis involved in Experiment 1 (and chal-lenged ad hoc in order to avoid the lattera€™s modus tollens impact on the theory) becomes the focus of interest in Experiment 2, which in turn utilizes further plausible but easily challenged auxiliary hypotheses, and so forth. But somehow, even though Meehl was saying this over and over again, we weren’t listening. I’m a reporter for *** [newspaper], currently looking into a fun article about a recent study, and my old professor *** recommended I get in touch with you to see if you would give me a comment on the statistics in the study.
It’s a bit of fun, really, but I want to approach it with real scientific analysis, so your voice in the piece would be great. That was all, but then I just received an email from Dan Kahan pointing to a long post by Asheley Landrum attacking the study on various grounds, including the points above.
For the general issue of how reporters can write about this sort of science paper, see the templates here. I replied that I meant no condemnation, implicit or otherwise, of the desire to reduce inequality. The Wait Wait thing is no big deal—they could well have mentioned this study only for the purpose of mocking it. In an otherwise pointless comment thread the other day, Dan Lakeland contributed the following gem: A p-value is the probability of seeing data as extreme or more extreme than the result, under the assumption that the result was produced by a specific random number generator (called the null hypothesis).
I could care less about p-values but I really really like the identification of a null hypothesis with a random number generator. The statistical framework of this paper is frequentist: we consider the statistical properties of hypothesis tests under hypothetical replications of the data. Our claim is that researchers are doing #3, but the confusion is that, when we say this, researchers think wea€™re accusing them of doing #4. It might seem unfair that we are criticizing published papers based on a claim about what they would have done had the data been different.


Yesterday, in the context of a post about news media puffery of the latest three-headed monstrosity to come out of PPNAS, I promised you a solution. The post A template for future news stories about scientific breakthroughs appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. But I do have a suggestion, a template for how reporters can handle PPNAS studies in the future, a template that respects the possibility that these papers can have value. A spray can improve your memory, claims a paper just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is a prestigious journal but in recent years has had its credibility questioned after its publication of several articles with seriously flawed statistical analyses on topics ranging from suicide rates to life expectancy to air rage to hurricane naming. Do the memory-boosting effects of chlorine imply that you should be spending more time inhaling the spray at your local pool? A spray can improve your memory, claimed a much-publicized paper published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Since then, two laboratories have conducted independent replications of the study, and these were just published in the journal Psychology Research Replications.
At the time of its publication, the conclusions of the chlorine-memory study could only be considered tentative because its hypotheses and data analysis plan for their study had not been not preregistered. Asked about the failed replications, Smith says, “We thought we found something there, but apparently we were overconfident.
Sara Yossarian of Harvard Medical School, who had no affiliation with the original study or the replications, says, “The unsuccessful replications confirm my original skepticism. If chlorine really has no memory-boosting effects, does this imply that you should spend less time at your local pool? Asked about the failed replications, Smith says, “We stand by our originally-published finding.
SCO is among a number of companies that provide services and products based on the UNIX operating system.
Ann Quindlen has written a piece tying the sorry conditions of the site that was once the twin towers to the resulting actions and responses taken by this administration. I have been saying that we will be able to declare victory in the Iraq theatre when the Iraqi governmentA‚A  asks us to leave.
The church-affiliated organization Obama worked for covered Greater Roseland, which comprises four of the 77 official community areas of Chicago: Roseland itself, Pullman, West Pullman, and Riverdale.
In 1985, freshly graduated from Columbia University and working for a New York business consultant, Barack Obama decided to become a community organizer. Then he got a call from Jerry Kellman, an organizer working on Chicago's far South Side for a community group based in the churches of the region, an expanse of white, black and Latino blue-collar neighborhoods that were reeling from the steel-mill closings.
Obama, only 24, struck board members as "awesome" and "extremely impressive," and they quickly hired him, at $13,000 a year, plus $2,000 for a car--a beat-up blue Honda Civic, which Obama drove for the next three years organizing more than twenty congregations to change their neighborhoods. Despite some meaningful victories, the work of Obama--and hundreds of other organizers--did not transform the South Side or restore lost industries.
Hey, you've been in office for nearly two years and what have you done to shore up the deficits - cut spending programs, stop war funding, reduced earmarks?A  No.
Section 2340 makes plain that the infliction of pain or suffering per se, whether it is physical or mental, is insufficient to amount to torture. Laws of the Territory of Hawaii ACT 96 To Provide For The Issuance Of Certificates Of Hawaiian Birth was in effect from 1911 until 1972 and allowed someone who was born outside the Hawaiian Islands to be registered as though he were born in Hawaii. Meanwhile, it has been brought to light that the "Birther" lawyers have quite a sterling reputation - one sanctioned for legal malpractice (that is not an easy thing to accomplish, judging by the SCO vs. This whole thing is starting to remind me of the Terry Schaivo debacle, where even though the doctors who actually look.at her and examined her all said she's brain dead. She fills her sketchbooks with monsters that may or may not be real, she’s prone to disappearing on mysterious "errands", she speaks many languages - not all of them human - and her bright blue hair actually grows out of her head that color.
In that case, the question is mostly just an academic one, because anything we do will come up with more-or-less the same answer. We might be close to the edge of parameter space, or there might be some bimodal situation where two (or more) parameters can combine in two (or more) different plausible ways, and the evidence from the data isn’t yet enough to conclusively rule one of those out.
Now obviously a whole bunch of things have to break right for for a 75-87 team to have the best record in baseball the next year.
The bookies arena€™t giving odds on SOME team with a (equivalent to) 75-87 record or worse winning the most games next year a€“ but for one specific team. Douglasa€™s win was surprising because he was assumed to be completely outclassed by Tyson, and then this stunning thing happened.
Beyond that I think it makes sense to look at a€?precursor dataa€?: near misses and the like. For example, there is intriguing evidence that the attitude that young people have about their own intelligence a€” and what their teachers believe a€” can have a big impact on how well they learn. Dweck and colleagues gave a group of low-achieving seventh graders a seminar on how the brain works and put the students at random into two groups.
It all started when Dan Kahan sent me the following puzzle: Match the resonses of large nationally representative sample to supporting these policy items. Considering how adaptable analytics expertise is, what kinds of careers available to one with this skillset? In this fashion a zealous and clever investigator can slowly wend his way through a tenuous nomological net-work, performing a long series of related experiments which appear to the uncritical reader as a fine example of a€?an integrated research program,a€? without ever once re-futing or corroborating so much as a single strand of the network. It directly targets their demographic of people who are rich enough to fly a lot but not rich enough to fly first class, and who think that inequality is the cause of the worlda€™s ills. And why the implication that NPR listeners cannot distinguish good scientific articles from bad ones that agree with listenersa€™ values?
Simple classical test based on a unique test statistic, T , which when applied to the observed data yields T(y).
To put it another way, researchers assert that they are not doing #4 and the implication is that they are doing #2. But this is the (somewhat paradoxical) nature of frequentist reasoning: if you accept the concept of the p-value, you have to respect the legitimacy of modeling what would have been done under alternative data. It's about a little company who thought they could, but didn't stop to consider if they should.
He has been written off as the next Michael "Brownie" Brown, the Bush guy who never should have been running FEMA, and as it turns out, apparently wasn't, if you are big on quality results. It's a poor analogy.A‚A  Terrorism has been around forever, it has just been referred to by different names.
I knew the song from the first Crowded House album, and only last year found that Neil had recorded the song a few years before while still playing with Split Enz.
According to the 2000 census, the population of Greater Roseland was 107,800 compared to Wasilla's 5500. Though he liked the idea, he didn't understand what the job involved, and his inquiries turned up few opportunities.
Kellman was looking for an organizer for the new Developing Communities Project (DCP), which would focus on black city neighborhoods. But it did change the young man who became the junior senator from Illinois in 2004, and it provides clues to his worldview as he bids for the Democratic presidential nomination.
She was trying to round up votes for a bailout package that shes claims to believe is essential for the stability of the American economy.


I thought that Conservatives HATED when lawyers used international laws to show that something we do here is or is not constitutional. Under that law, someone simply would have presented herself to the Hawaiian authorities and declared that the child was born in Hawaii. A person couldn't just go into the Secretary of Hawaii's office, hold up the baby Kunta Kente style, and get a certificate issued on the spot declaring that the baby was born in Hawaii. There are no plane tickets or other documents showing MommaBoma was anywhere other than Hawaii.
Everybody Using UNIX case), one got her law degree online, and another was disbarred in California, Texas, and Florida. Yet the idiots Republicans though they knew better, and started accusing everyone, doctors and lawyers and judges, of lying because, well, we're Republican, and we know better.
In those cases, plotting the distribution should clearly show that something is up, but what do we do about it in terms of giving a point estimate? 5000-1 may be low, but 50-1 is absurdly high given there actually are quality differences between teams, and there are quite a few of them. Leicester is a pro soccer team and nobody thought they were outclassed by the other teamsa€”on a€?any given Sundaya€? anyone can wina€”but it was thought they were doomed by the law of large numbers.
For example if therea€™s not much data on the frequency of longshots winning the championship, we could get data on longshots placing in the top three, or the top five. Carol Dweck, a psychology professor at Stanford University, has shown that kids who think that their intelligence is malleable perform better and are more motivated to learn than those who believe that their intelligence is fixed and unchangeable. The experimental group was told that learning changes the brain and that students are in charge of this process. The puzzle of Paul Meehl is that everything we’re saying now, all this stuff about the problems with Psychological Science and PPNAS and Ted talks and all that, Paul Meehl was saying 50 years ago.
Some of the more horrible examples of this process would require the combined analytic and recon-structive efforts of Carnap, Hempel, and Popper to unscramble the logical relation-ships of theories and hypotheses to evidence. For example, I† might correspond to choices of control variables in a regression, transformations, and data coding and excluding rules, as well as the decision of which main effect or interaction to focus on. In the present paper we focus on possibility #3, arguing that, even without explicit fishing, a study can have a huge number of researcher degrees of freedom, following what de Groot (1956) refers to as a€?trying and selectinga€? of associations. They cana€™t always call Andrew Gelman at Columbia University for a quote, and they typically wona€™t have the technical background to evaluate these papers by themselves. The current Islamic form of the cancer has been growing as a movement since the 1950's, and since it never seemed to affect us, we never got around to doing anything about it. She can't, and doesn't want to, pass the bill without a substantial number of Republican votes.
There is the "sworn affidavit" from GramaBoma, but has anyone seen, verified, and validated that document????? And would anybody please tell me why Allan Keyes has ANY credibility in the Republican party. This is the type of arrogance that lead this party into the shithole in 2006, and will destroy any chance of gaining a permanence of the temporary victories in 2010, if they do come at all.
That is the question that haunts her, and she’s about to find out.When beautiful, haunted Akiva fixes fiery eyes on her in an alley in Marrakesh, the result is blood and starlight, secrets unveiled, and a star-crossed love whose roots drink deep of a violent past.
One way to think about Leicestera€™s odds in this context would be to say that, if they really are the 14th-best team, then maybe there are about 10 teams with roughly similar odds as theirs, and one could use historical data to get a sense of whata€™s the probability of any of the bottom 10 teams winning the championship.
Therea€™s a continuity to the task of winning the championship, so it should be possible to extrapolate this probability from the probabilities of precursor events. The control group received a lesson on memory, but was not instructed to think of intelligence as malleable. What about emerging opportunities, or sectors that you believe could use more data experts?
Meanwhile our eager-beaver re- searcher, undismayed by logic-of-science considerations and relying blissfully on the a€?exactitudea€? of modem statistical hypothesis-testing, has produced a long publication list and been promoted to a full professorship. SCO has been suing lots of companies for various things, but the reason I'm writing about this now is because it looks like they may be trying to sepoeana a blogger.
It metastasized in the body of the world, and then found weaknesses in the immune system that is supposed to protect the body that is the US of America, and infect us with its malignant cells.
Obama is in the process of refining this position, as he must, because so much has changed from four years ago, that the old Democratic paradigm on this conflict does not match the facts on the ground. Although these statutes address a substantially different subject from Section 2340, they are nonetheless helpful for understanding what constitutes severe physical pain. Leicester was the 14th-best team in the league last year in terms of points (and they were better than that in terms of goal differential, which is probably a better indicator of underlying quality). In terms of his contribution to the enduring body of psychological knowledge, he has done hardly anything.
Obama was not in charge of the 107,800, but only served as a liason to 20 congregations within that population, maybe two to three thousand people (my estimate - I could be way off). You would think she would say, "let's pass this emergency measure now, in the best interests of the country, and talk about who is to blame later." Instead, Pelosi began her speech with a highly partisan tirade against "Bush" and "Republican" economic policies, which were allegedly to blame for this situation.
Peace Ita€™s on Cedar between Belmont & Tulare Streets, on the West side of the street. They treat severe pain as an indicator of ailments that are likely to result in permanent and serious physical damage in the absence of immediate medical treatment.
Then, as is now, you would have to provide evidence, as much as you could produce in the day, that you were indeed born on the islands. Yet, when the Republican Governor of Hawaii Linda Lingle declares that she's seen the original and declares Obama a natural born citizen, well, this inconvenient fact is shrugged off.
Anyway, the idea that ita€™s a 5000 to 1 shot for the 14th best team in one year to win the league in the next is obviously absurd on its face. His true position is that of a potent-but-sterile intellectual rake, who leaves in his merry path a long train of ravished maidens but no viable scientific offspring. Such damage must rise to the level of death, organ failure, or the permanent impairment of a significant body function. Janice Okubo, director of communications for the Hawaii Department of Health, says a€?If you were born in Bali, for example, you could get a certificate from the state of Hawaii saying you were born in Bali. Violence has almost completely subsided - it looks like the imminent civil war so many were looking forward to has been cancelled. It will be a show that promises to take you back to the past to revisit the days of innocence. These statutes suggest that "severe pain," as used in Section 2340, must rise to a similarly high level a€” the level that would ordinarily be associated with a sufficiently serious physical condition or injury such as death, organ failure, or serious impairment of body functions a€” in order to constitute torture. The Iraqi army is finally able to handle the task of securing stability and neutralizing the appeal of the various militias. The government appears to be finding its mojo, finalizing deals that will open the oil taps and create badly needed revenue (BTW this is one of the three benchmarks that hadn't been met in the U.S. Thus, the adjective "severe" conveys that the pain or suffering must be of such a high level of intensity that the pain is difficult for the subject to endure.



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