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Slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. While the 2014 FIFA World Cup will mostly focus on the players that are on show, there are also a few other things that plenty of people will be talking about in the coming weeks. This is a place devoted to giving you deeper insight into the news, trends, people and technology behind Bing. The Bing Prediction engine has been busy churning out predictions for users in the US in Bing and Cortana, providing projections for reality TV shows, the NBA amateur draft, and most recently, the World Cup.
Bing Predicts is an initiative that uses machine-learned models to analyse and detect trends from web and social activity as well as a host of other data for differing events. Because the Scottish Referendum is a ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ event with no historical precedence it brings its own challenges for data analysis (and is one of the reasons we are applying our test model to this event). Algorithmically, we detect terms that are pro-independence and compare the aggregate sentiment against phrases which are pro-union to arrive at a prediction for whether the referendum will have a “yes” or “no” vote.
As well as a prediction, when we look at the search queries from Scotland in the past 6 months we can see some interesting patterns in what people have been searching for.


This is our test phase for Bing Predicts in the UK and we hope it is informative and interesting.
For popularity-based contests like American Idol, a spinoff of the UK’s original Pop Idol, web and social signals can highly correlate with popularity voting patterns and thus allows the engine to make accurate projections on who will be eliminated each week and who the eventual winner will be.
On one extreme, one can think of it as a Pop Idol-like contest but the key differences are that (1) individuals are more likely to freely share their true opinion on their favorite Idol contestant than they are on their political view in a public forum like Twitter and (2) eligible voters don’t perfectly overlap with users of the web (e.g. For the referendum analysis, the US engineering team is partnering with Kate Newton, one of our UK based data experts in the Bing team who has been utilising Microsoft’s own marketplace search insights tool, Bing Ads Intelligence, to research search query sentiments around the Scottish independence vote.
Our sentiment detector also identifies neutral keywords which potentially capture the segment of undecided voters. We are watching the debate with interest and look forward to being able to see how our data stacks up come the 19th September.
In the most recent season of Idol last spring, the models correctly predicted the winner in late March about 8 weeks before the actual finale. For the prediction, we start with the trends and sentiment determined from the web and social data, and we then adjust for biases and try to understand the true opinion expressed by a population most representing the actual voters themselves.


Information is continually ingested, with the prediction updated regularly, to best capture the latest “yes” or “no” vote.
While Neymar will look to impress on the pitch, off it all eyes will be on his girlfriend Gabriella Lenzi. On the other end of the spectrum, predicting the World Cup required the incorporation of other prior information such as team strengths since popularity alone doesn’t dramatically help a football team to win or lose (some fan bases may object to this assertion but it’s largely true). This mainly involves determining which way a percentage of undecided voters are going at the last minute. Antonella Roccuzzo and Lionel Messi have known one another since they were kids but did not start dating until 2008.



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