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Required information is not filled in: Information about the starting date of the publishing schedule is missing. World energy use continues to increase steadily in the Reference Scenario, but at a slower rate than projected in WEO-2007 report, mainly due to higher energy prices and slower economic growth. Total energy consumption disaggregated by fuel type is a driving force indicator describing the development of energy sources and the corresponding levels of consumption. Total primary energy consumption (supply) or gross inland energy consumption is calculated as the sum of the gross inland consumption of energy from solid fuels, oil, gas, nuclear and renewable sources. The development and running of the WEM requires access to huge quantities of historical data on economic and energy variables. In common with all attempts to describe future market trends, the energy projections presented in the Outlook are subject to a wide range of uncertainties energy markets could evolve in ways that are much different from either the Reference Scenario or the Alternative Policy Scenario. The worrying fact to me however is that when you look at BP’s projections for 2035, the non fossil fuels contribution is only expected to go up by 4%. Power, industrial and transport are the 3 main sectors which account for bulk of the energy consumption in the world.
If you are interested in the data tables, from where these charts have been derived, here goes.. The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices. One of our underlying problems is that energy costs have risen faster than most workers’ wages since 2000. Based on recent patterns in China, we would expect fuel consumption to be increasing by about 7.5% per year.
Part of China’s problem is that some of the would-be buyers of its products are not growing. Of course, some of the recent slumping demand of Ukraine and Russia are intended–this is what US sanctions are about. The United States is often portrayed as the bright ray of sunshine in a world with problems. Looking at oil separately (Figure 8), the data indicates that for the world in total, oil consumption grew by 0.8% in 2014. If oil producers had planned for 2014 oil consumption based on the recent past growth in oil consumption growth, they would have overshot by about 1,484 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE), or about 324,000 barrels per day.
We can also look at oil consumption for the US, EU, and Japan, compared to all of the rest of the world. Looking at the two parts of the world separately (Figure 11), we see that in the last three years, growth in coal consumption outside of US, EU, and Japan, has tapered down.
Another way of looking at fuels is in a chart that compares consumption of the various fuels side by side (Figure 12). Consumption of oil, coal and natural gas are all moving on tracks that are in some sense parallel. We know that commodity prices of many kinds (energy, food, metals of many kinds) have been have generally been falling, on an inflation adjusted basis, for the past four years. It stands to reason that if prices of commodities are low, while the general trend in the cost of producing these commodities is upward, there will be erosion in the amount of these products that can be profitably produced, and hence, that can be purchased. It seems to me that the lower commodity prices we have been seeing over the past four years (with a recent sharper drop for oil), likely reflect an affordability problem.
For a while, the lack of affordability could be masked with a variety of programs: economic stimulus, increasing debt and Quantitative Easing. If the price of a commodity, say oil, is low, this is a problem for a country that exports the commodity. Even if subsidies are not involved, lower tax revenue will very often affect the projects an oil exporter can undertake.
The concern I have now is that with low oil prices, and low prices of other commodities, a number of countries will have to cut back their programs, in order to balance government budgets. My concern is that low commodity prices will prove to be self-perpetuating, because low commodity prices will adversely affect commodity exporters.
In my view, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 occurred indirectly as a result of low oil prices in the late 1980s. None of the issues I raise would be a problem, if our economy had a reverse gear–in other words, if it could shrink as well as grow. Businesses in poor financial condition and workers who have been laid off tend to default on loans.
The number of elderly and disabled tends to grow, even as the working population stagnates or falls, making the funding of pensions increasingly difficult.
What we seem to be seeing is an end to the boost that globalization gave to the world economy.
Globalization brings huge advantages, in the form of access to cheap energy products still in the ground. Wages in the newly globalized area tend to rise, negating some of the initial benefit of low wages. Wages of workers in the area developed prior to globalization tend to fall because of competition with workers from parts of the world getting lower pay. Eventually, more than enough factory space is built, and more than enough housing is built.
Demand for energy products (in terms of what workers around the world can afford) cannot keep up with production, in part because wages of many workers lag thanks to competition with low-paid workers in less-advanced countries. It is quite possible that at some point in the not too distant future, demand (and prices) will fall further.
In my view, low prices and low demand for commodities are what we should expect, as we reach limits of a finite world. We Could Be Witnessing the Death of the Fossil Fuel Industry—Will It Take the Rest of the Economy Down With It? Resilience is a program of Post Carbon Institute, a nonprofit organization dedicated to helping the world transition away from fossil fuels and build sustainable, resilient communities. The Institute for Energy Research is a not-for-profit organization that conducts intensive research and analysis on the functions, operations, and government regulation of global energy markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) annually estimates global fossil-fuel consumption subsidies that measure what many developing countries spend to provide below-market cost fuel to their citizens. The IEA is a creation of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which represents the developed nations of the world.
According to the IEA, global fossil fuel consumption subsidies are over 4 times higher than global renewable subsidies.[iii]  IEA’s estimate for global renewable subsidies (biofuels and renewable electricity) in 2013 is $120 billion, higher than the $100 billion they reached in 2012. One of our underlying problems is that energy costs that have risen faster than most workers’ wages since 2000. It stands to reason that if prices of commodities are low, while the general trend in the cost of producing these commodities is upward, there will be erosion in the amount of these products that can be purchased. Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes. Why do these clowns always think that the current situation wasn't the desired outcome all along? To a significant extent, the US’s slowing energy consumption is intended–more fuel-efficient cars, more fuel efficient lighting, and better insulation. This is the only suggestion in this entire essay  that "efficiency" may have something to do with it.
Did it ever occur to this guy that fewer and fewer people are needed each day to provide for the entire world's population. Hell yeah we are past peak energy demand, when you have squeezed the guts out of the broadest class of consumers in the country, there are not nearly as many people flying and driving and building and shopping and repairing, and doing all those energy consuming and GDP building kinds of things. The author fails to consider one very important factor that is suppressing global energy demand: a slow down in global growth. This period of collapsed economies should have been used by Obola (as he promised in his first electoral campaign) to"get America off oil" (and the rest of the world too). One of our underlying problems is that energy costs have risen faster than most workers’ wages since 2000. Part of China’s problem is that some of the would-be buyers of its products are not growing. I have used the same scale (maximum = 3.5 billion metric tons of oil equivalent) on Figure 3 as I used on Figure 2 so that readers can easily compare the European’s Union’s energy consumption to that of China. Of course, some of the recent slumping demand of Ukraine and Russia are intended–this is what US sanctions are about.
To a significant extent, the US’s slowing energy consumption is intended–more fuel-efficient cars, more fuel-efficient lighting, and better insulation. People buy goods that they want or need, with one caveat: they don’t buy what they cannot afford. Notice that the three “layers” in the middle are all countries whose economies are fairly closely tied to commodity exports. None of the issues I raise would be a problem, if our economy had a reverse gear–in other words, if it could shrink as well as grow.
Many have focused on a single problem area–for example, the requirement that interest be paid on debt–as being the problem preventing the economy from shrinking. While no thinking person can doubt that any finite resource that is relentlessly consumed will eventually decline, I always believed it more likely that the decline would happen over a long period – a long bumpy plateau, followed by a gradual and bumpy descent. I wouldn’t put too much hope in maintaining your investments, diversified as they may be. A little – I see many today blends the gasoline with biofuels that has a lower energy content.
If the point is that a given amount of oil at different EROEI levels is the same then the question is totally irrelevant and lacks any meaningful connection to what happens to the population and economy at those levels – besides the changes to the gasoline you put in the tank. Makes the argument that producers could (will?) start drawing down the fraclog and basically keep Bakken output plateaued through 2015. I do think there might be some issues with the data he used though, and I posted my response. But I agree that your numbers on the required rigs are probably in the right ball park, if well profiles keep where they are right now.
Beam said “I always believed it more likely that the decline would happen over a long period – a long bumpy plateau, followed by a gradual and bumpy descent. My biggest question is can we hold this global system together that supports all our delocalized locals in a descent. I personally am thinking we will enter a bumpy descent that can limp along for a few years mainly because this bumpy descent can be made to look like lackluster growth by the powers to be. China’s local governments have managed to accumulated a debt pile worth 35% of GDP via off-balance sheet, high-cost loans which are now being swapped for low interest muni bonds in an effort to reduce debt servicing costs and extend WAM. I agree that it is quite unlikely that it is caused by worsening wells, but probably by operator (in-)action.
And then in a few years or so when oil makes gasoline expensive again, of course, it will be everyone ELSE’s fault.
Other contributing factors are policy changes such as for example the US Energy Independence and Security Act, which mandates vehicle fuel economy improvements. Due to strong economic growth, China and India account for 51% of incremental world primary energy demand in 2006-2030.
It is also called Total primary energy supply or Gross inland energy consumption and represents the quantity of all energy necessary to satisfy inland consumption.
Therefore, the share of each fuel in total energy consumption is measured in absolute value, but presented in the form of a percentage. WSSD, 2002 aims to achieve a sustainable energy future, including diversified energy sources using cleaner technologies. The relative contribution of a specific fuel is the ratio between the energy consumption originating from that specific fuel and the total gross inland energy consumption. Most of the data are obtained from the IEA's own databases of energy and economics statistics.
The reliability or WEM projections depends both on how well the model represents reality and on the validity of the assumptions it works under.
The statistics of IEA which provide a major input to the WEO, cover 130 countries worldwide. For e.g oil accounts for over 90% of the energy consumption in the transport sector (for obvious reasons, it wont be possible to switch to other fuel types overnight).
The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices.
The symptoms we should expect are similar to the patterns we have been seeing recently (Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)). China’s energy consumption by fuel, based on data of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
European Union Energy Consumption based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 Data. When China was added to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it used only about 60% as much energy as the European Union.
Former Soviet Union energy consumption by source, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy Data 2015.


United States energy consumption by fuel, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014.
But part of this reduction in the growth in energy consumption comes from outsourcing a portion of manufacturing to countries around the world, including China. World energy consumption by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
If this entire drop in oil consumption came in the second half of 2014, the overshoot would have been about 648,000 barrels per day during that period. World coal consumption by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. Coal consumption for the US, EU, and Japan separately from the Rest of the World, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. World energy consumption by fuel, showing each fuel separately, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. This is actually a fairly large percentage gain compared to the recent shrinkage that has been taking place. To a significant extent affordability is based on wages (or income levels for governments or businesses).
Figure 13 shows a graph prepared by the International Monetary Fund of trends in commodity prices. This affordability problem arises because for most people, wages did not rise when energy prices rose, and the prices of commodities in general rose in the early 2000s. Eventually these programs reach their limits, and prices begin falling in inflation-adjusted terms. Arguably I could have included more countries in this category–for example, other OPEC countries could be included in this grouping. As these countries try to fix their own problems, their own demand for commodities will drop, and this will affect world commodity prices. A person can see from Figure 1 how much the energy consumption of the Former Soviet Union fell after 1991.
At the same time, the government’s ability to collect taxes falls, because of the poor condition of businesses and workers. Thus, world economic growth is slowing, and because of this slowed economic growth, demand for energy products is slowing. World CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. From the point of view of businesses, there is also the possibility of access to cheap labor and access to new markets for selling their goods. There is widespread belief that as we reach limits, prices will rise, and energy products will become scarce. In 2006, she became interested in the likely financial impacts of oil limits on insurance companies and other financial institutions, and started writing about that issue.
In 2013, IEA found that fossil fuel consumption subsidies totaled $548 billion, 4 percent lower ($25 billion less) than in 2012.[1][i] According to IEA, this decrease is due to lower international energy prices. IEA’s subsidy study found that many developing countries artificially lower energy prices to their citizens, paying the difference from their government resources.[ii] These wealth transfers are differentiable from subsidies that are intended to support uneconomic energy sources such as wind and solar technologies toward commercialization.
In contrast to fossil fuel consumption subsidies, renewable fuel subsidies often take the form of tax credits for investment or production, or premiums over market prices to cover the higher production costs compared to traditional fuels. And they clearly show a increase in energy demand as living standards all over the world rise, especially from the 3rd world part and azia. Further, when you look at the curves, if you remove coal, which is the largest percentage, all other fuel types are going up at an accelerating rate. And with amost eveyone's job being to make things more efficient, this can only lead to more unemployment (leisure).
The parasites in banking and finance have bled the economy of any driving force, in favor of globalization.
This is evidenced by the fact that - even with oil prices being suppressed by the Saudi dogmeat family - demand is still running at reduced levels compared to the 2000s. It might take a while to get back to the levels of the 2000s but it will quickly expose the fragility of constrained energy supply, particularly of oil. Delocalisation was used to boost revenues of "big industry" thereby depressing jobs and wages in the West ( EU,USA,Japan ).
China’s energy consumption by fuel, based on data of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
Arguably I could have included more countries in this category–for example, other OPEC countries could be included in this grouping. At the same time, the government’s ability to collect taxes falls, because of the poor condition of businesses and workers.
Big systems with lots of inertia generally don’t change course instantaneously, unless some disruptive new technology causes a sudden paradigm shift.
But it won’t happen so fast or be so severe as to warrant dropping out of the system and retreating to a safe house in the wilderness. I have real life experience in growing my core crops, I have the seed, I can teach other people who are tough enough to do the work how to grow enough food to survive. These profiles have changed remarkably downwards over the last few months, so that is not a given. I feel there are many activities and lifestyles we can weed out of the system that are poor uses of resources and not to mention destructive socially.
What I mean by delocalized is nearly all locals are no longer self-resilient or self-sustainable. The most important ones are food production, liquid fuel availability, and systematic stability from confidence.
Once threatened the system becomes destabilized and because of our vast global overshoot very vulnerable to collapse. This is part of a wider effort on China’s part to deleverage an economy laboring under $28 trillion in debt.
I know you watch this stuff pretty closely and would have some issue with the NDIC fraclog, etc. Still, it was a surprise to me that such a strong effect is visible, and it will be interesting to see how quickly that reverts back with supposedly rising oil prices. Of the global increase in oil demand 43% comes from China, 20% from the Middle East and 19% from India.
The consumption of fossil fuels (such as crude oil, oil products, hard coal, lignite and natural and derived gas) provides a proxy indicator of resource depletion, CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution levels (e.g. Moreover, there is a number of sub-negotiations and declarations concerning more sustainable ratio in balance between a global energy supply and consumption of different energy types.
A significant amount of additional data from a wide range of external sources is also used.
Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars.
I see evidence of this in the historical energy data recently updated by BP (BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015).
It seems to me that the patterns in BP’s new data are also of the kind that we would expect to be seeing, if we are hitting limits that are causing low commodity prices. Regardless of cause, and whether the result was intentional or not, the United States’ consumption is not growing very briskly.
Thus, the mismatch we have recently been seeing between oil consumption and supply appears to be partly related to falling demand, based on BP’s data. Carbon taxes in some countries (but not others) further tended to push manufacturing to coal-intensive manufacturing locations, such as China and India. Now we are at a point where prices of oil, coal, natural gas, and uranium are all low in inflation-adjusted terms, discouraging further investment. Governments very often get a major share of their tax revenue from taxing the profits of the companies that sell the commodities, such as oil. Of course, in such a situation exports may fall more than consumption, leading to a rise in oil prices. For long-industrialized countries, globalization also represents a workaround to inadequate local energy supplies. Oil subsidies make up over half of the total fossil fuel consumption subsidies, while electricity makes up 24 percent, natural gas 22 percent and coal less than 1 percent. In contrast, the United States and other developed countries offer support to energy production in the form of tax credits, loan guarantees or use mandates, which are not included in IEA’s fossil fuel consumption subsidy calculations since they are directed towards production rather than consumption of the fuel. Thus, the mismatch we are have recently been seeing between oil consumption and supply appears to be partly related to falling demand, based on BP’s data. We see before us national deflation on a grand scale, nothing but service jobs, payday loans, failing retail, and an overfed military-police complex to beat order into the ruins that represent our national plantation-state. Consumption in that same "West" has been kept going through massive credit creation by the (central) banks and governmental deficit spending. It seems to me that the patterns in BP’s new data are also of the kind that we would expect to be seeing, if we are hitting limits that are causing low commodity prices. Regardless of cause, and whether the result was intentional or not, the United States’ consumption is not growing very briskly. Thus, the mismatch we have recently been seeing between oil consumption and supply appears to be partly related to falling demand, based on BP’s data.
With the falling percentage growth rate, growth is more or less “linear”–similar amounts were added each year, rather than similar percentages. I was still early in my career in corporate America, and there were some in PO forecasting imminent collapse, while others believed in a long decline scenario. Dropping out of the economic system in anticipation of an immediate collapse didn’t seem prudent then, and the intervening years have proven that assessment to be correct. It does warrant diversifying ones investments, taking some reasonable precautions wrt to hard assets and most importantly, keep ones antennae up to shifts in the winds of current events. My business takes me to Asia frequently, and the changes there for the average Joe have been quite profound. I feel a descent will initiate some kind of crisis that will focus our attention on mitigation and adaptation to descent and all the other predicaments we face. There are some on this board that like to mention the third world subsistence farmers but they are in many cases surrounded or near population overshoot.
This deleveraging effort goes far beyond local government debt, as Beijing is now moving to allow for more corporate defaults as the country moves to liberalize its financial markets.
I suspect some aspect of contango trade in JAN-APR affected this: choking, days offline, etc.
If Jane were likely to drive, say, a Prius C because gasoline taxes reflected something close to the social cost of oil (pollution, AGW, defense, scarcity, etc) then she’d likely get a lot of miles per unit of gasoline.
The parameters of the demand-side modules' equations are estimated econometrically, usually using data fro the period 19971-2002. Recently, however, maintaining the very high caliber of IEA statistics has become increasingly difficult, in many cases because national administrations have faced growing problems in maintaining the quality of their own statistics. In the last 20 years, we greatly ramped up globalization, but we are now losing the temporary benefit globalization brings. Even with this slow growth, it raised hydroelectric energy consumption to 6.8% of world energy supply.
With recent growth, other renewables amounted to 2.5% of total world energy consumption in 2014. If the price of oil or other commodity that is exported drops, then it will be difficult for the government to collect enough tax revenue. Adding more countries to this category would make the portion of world consumption tied to countries depending on commodity exports even greater.
Ultimately, the issue becomes whether a world economy can adapt to falling oil supply, caused by the collapse of some oil exporters. The protocol aimed to reduce carbon emissions, but because it inadvertently encouraged globalization, it tended to have the opposite effect. This is what we would expect, if the world is running into affordability problems, ultimately related to fuel prices rising faster than wages. Many economies are gradually moving into recession–this is what the low prices and falling rates of energy growth really mean. According to the IEA, the United States does not have any consumption subsidies for oil, coal, or natural gas. If the price of oil, or other commodity that is exported drops, then it will be difficult for the government to collect enough tax revenue. Why in the world, when we are all working so hard towards that end, are we not thinking about accommodating it? Many economies are gradually moving into recession–this is what the low prices and falling rates of energy growth really mean. The imminent collapse group believed in a near term zombie apocalypse that would render all BAU endeavors moot. I’ve been fortunate to have had a rewarding career that has put me in good position to survive a long “down” period, much better than if I’d dropped out of the system 15 years ago. And 150+ rigs to get serious growth going (and in that cases services prices go up also…so need some serious price increase for oil).


It is only the global that keeps this population overshoot from disrupting the local subsistence. As a result, their share in primary energy demand rises from 51% to 62%.In 2030, disparities in per capita energy consumption among regions remain stark. The degree of the environmental impact depends on the relative share of different fossil fuels and the extent to which pollution abatement measures are used. Kiev Declaration " Environment for Europe" (2003) aims at supporting further efforts to promote renewable energy supply to meet environmental objectives. The share of each fuel in total energy consumption is presented in the form of a percentage. Shorter periods are sometimes used where data are unavailable or significant structural breaks are identified.
We find we again need to deal with the limits of a finite world and the constraints such a world places on growth. This doesn’t do much to offset slowing growth or outright declines in many other countries around the world. Adding China to the World Trade Organization in 2001 further encouraged globalization. This doesn’t do much to offset slowing growth or outright declines in many other countries around the world.
I still don’t believe there will is an imminent zombie apocalypse, although I do believe we could see a market correction that could result in a step down for the world economy that could be protracted. Except, of course, unless we count the last twenty or more years as part of that long decline. I still believed we are cooked with climate change but who knows with such a large and complex system.
Middle East countries see a rapid increase in per-capita energy demand over the Outlook period, Russia still has the highest per-capita energy consumption, at 7.0 toe, in 2030. Natural gas, for instance, has approximately 40 % less carbon content than coal and 25 % less carbon content than oil and contains only marginal quantities of sulphur.
EU policy context Total energy consumption disaggregated by fuel type provides an indication of the extent of environmental pressure caused (or at risk of being caused) by energy production and consumption.
To tae into account expected changes in structure, policy or technology, adjustments to these parameters are sometimes made over the Outlook period, using econometric and other modeling techniques. A networked economy can work in ways that does not match our intuition; this is why many researchers fail to see understand the nature of the problem we are facing. In my opinion, the author is right : globalisation is a temporary solution to boost profits for the few and now the limits are reached.
Our fragile economic and financial system must have solid confidence to facilitate the liquidity that is needed to maintain dispersed global production, distribution, and exchange.
Personally I think we are done now and if people cultivated mine and other’s doomer views found all over the net all confidence would be lost.
The level of nuclear energy consumption provides an indication of the trends in the amount of nuclear waste generated and of the risks associated with radioactive leaks and accidents. The relative shares of fossil fuels, nuclear power and renewable energies together with the total amount of energy consumption are valuable in determining the overall environmental burden of energy consumption in the EU. The projections are made with the use of the World Energy Model 2004 developed by Internation Energy Agency. In regions such as transition economies, where most data are available only from 1992, it has not been possible to use econometric estimations.
If this happens, the exporting country is faced with another problem–laid-off workers without jobs. It destroyed our buying power, created massive credit bubbles, devalued our currencies and now overcapacity kicks in everywhere.
If this happens, the exporting country is faced with another problem–laid-off workers without jobs.
Despite all the many signals of distress, even those during the near total collapse that occurred in the 2007-2008 timeframe, I never got the feeling that we were coming up on the end of the road. Increasing consumption of nuclear energy at the expense of fossil fuels would on the other hand contribute to reductions in CO2 emissions. In such cases, IEA results have been prepared using assumptions based on cross-country analyses or expert judgment. But a couple of years ago it suddenly occurred to me that something dramatically bad was in the works, it was as much an intuitive feeling as it was an evaluation of fact.
Renewable energy consumption is a measure of the contribution from technologies that are more environmentally benign, as they produce no (or very little) net CO2 and usually significantly lower levels of other pollutants. Everything I’ve learned and experienced over the last two years of intense study has convinced me that we are on the very edge of dramatic times.
The incineration of municipal waste is generally made up of both renewable and non-renewable material and may also generate local air pollution. The main exogenous assumptions concern economic growth, demographics, international fossil fuel prices and technological developments.
This is particularly useful in the adjustment process and in sensitivity analyses of specific factors. However, emissions from the incineration of waste are subject to stringent regulations including tight controls on quantities of cadmium, mercury and other such substances. With these goals in mind, each Member State will by June 30th 2010 submit a National Renewable Energy Action Plan to the Commission. The WEM makes use of wide range of software, including specific database management tools, econometric software and simulation programmes. Having an education in Public Relations and an intuitive sense of all the methods used to influence public opinion, I see a monumental effort by TPTB to keep the population pacified, because the truth were it widely known would lead to mass panic and the end of this world as we know it.
Similarly, the inclusion of both large and small-scale hydropower provides only a broad indicator of environmentally benign energy supply. Also electricity consumption and electricity prices dynamically link the final energy demand and power generation modules.
While small-scale hydro schemes generally have little environmental impact, large-scale hydro can have major adverse impacts (flooding, impact on ecosystems, water levels, requirements for population resettlement).
Then regional energy balance which includes the total primary energy consumption was calculated. Description of the Modules Final Energy Demand The OECD and non-OECD regions have been modelled in the following sectoral and end-use detail: Industry which is separated into six sub-sectors. So, like you, I monitor this and many other sites daily, every day, looking for signals that might give me a head start on battening down the hatches for the coming storm.
It is possible that hydrogen-based energy systems and carbon-sequestration technologies, which are now under development, could dramatically reduce carbon emissions associated with energy use. I’m lucky to have a brother close by who is equally aware of these topics, and some friends who are starting to recognize how bad things are getting. More detail description of the module can be found in the methodology of the Final Energy consumption by sectors.
But these technologies are still a long way from ready to be commercialized on a large scale, and it is always difficult to predict when a technological breakthrough might occur. Electricity generation is calculated using the demand for electricity and taking into account electricity used by power plants themselves and system losses. New generating capacity is the difference between total capacity requirements and plant retirements using assumed plant lives. Fossil fuel prices and efficiencies are used to rank plants in ascending order of their short-run marginal operating costs, allowing for assumed plant availability.
The marginal generation cost of the system is calculated, and this cost is then fed back to the demand model to determine the final electricity price.
Renewable module The projections of renewable electricity generation were derived in a separate model.
It has been assessed the future deployment of renewable energies for electricity generation and the investment needed for such deployment. For a detail description of this model - developed by Energy Economics Group (EEG) at Vienna University of Technology in co-operation with Wiener Zentrum fur Energie, Umwelt und Klima - see Resch et al. The development of renewables is based on an assessment of potentials and costs for each source (biomass, hydro, photovoltaics, solar thermal electricity, geothermal electricity, on- and offshore wind, tidal and wave). OPEC conventional oil production is assumed to fill the gap between non-OPEC production and non-conventional and total world oil demand. The derivation of non-OPEC production of conventional oil uses a combination of two different approaches. Along-term approach involves the determination of production according to the level of ultimately recoverable resources and a depletion rate estimated by using historical data. In particular, Europe gas market, whereas oil is modelled as a single international market. Once gas production from each net-importing region is estimated, taking into account ultimately recoverable resources and depletion rates, the remaining regional demand is derived and then allocated to the net-exporting regions, again according to recoverable resources and depletion rates. Production in the net-exporting regions is consequently calculated from their owm demand projections and export needs. Coal module The coal module is a combination of a resources approach and an assessment of the development of domestic and international markets, based on the international coal price.
Production, imports and exports are based on coal demand projections, and historical data on a country basis. Investment on the demand side WEM energy consumption, end-use prices and income are used as an input to the calculations for the investments on the demand side.
These estimates are mostly based on a co-operative effort between the Argonne Laboratory in the United States and the IEA. Projections of investment needs in the fuel supply chain are based on the methodology reported in the World Energy Investment Outlook 2003.
Key model assumptions for the reference case The central projections derived from a Reference Scenario. Major new energy policy initiatives will inevitably be implemented during the projection period, but it is difficult to predict which measures will eventually be adopted and how they will be implemented, especially towards the end of the projection period. Although the Reference Scenario assumes that there will be no change in energy and environmental policies through the projection period, the pace of implementation those policies and the way they are implemented in practice are nonetheless assumed to vary by the fuel and region. For example electricity and gas market reforms are assumed to move ahead, but at varying speeds among countries and regions. In all cases, the share of taxes in energy process is assumed to remain unchanged, so that retail process are assumed to change directly in proportion to international prices.
Similarly, it is assumed that there will be no changes in national policies on nuclear power.
As a result, nuclear energy will remain an option for power generation only in those countries that have not officially banned it or decided to phase it out. The WEO population growth rate assumptions are drawn from the most recent UN populations' projections contained in World population Prospects: the 2002 Revision. The assumed price paths assumed in the table presented below should not be interpreted as forecasts. Rater, they reflect IEA judgment of the prices that will be needed to encourage sufficient investment in supply to meet projected demand over the Outlook period. In general, it is assumed that available end-use technologies become steadily in use and the overall intensity of energy consumption will depend heavily on the rate of retirement and replacement of the stock of capital. Since the energy-using capital stock in use today will be replaced only gradually, most of the impact of technological developments that improve energy efficiency will not be felt until near the end of the projection period. Most cars and trucks, heating and cooling systems and industrial boilers will be replaced by 2030.
The very long life of this type of energy-capital stock will limit the extent to which technological progress can alter the amount of energy needed to provide a particular energy service.
Retiring these assets before the end of their normal lives is usually costly and would, in most cases, require major new governmental initiatives - beyond those assumed in the Reference Scenario.
Refurbishment can, however, achieve worthwhile improvements in energy efficiency in some cases.
Technological developments will also affect the costs of energy supply and the availability of new ways of producing and delivering energy services.
Power generation efficiencies are assumed to improve over the projection period, but at different rates for different technologies. Towards the end of the projection period, fuel cells based on hydrogen are expected o become economically attractive in some power generation applications ad, to a much smaller extent, also expected to improve, lowering the unit production costs and opening up new opportunities for developing resources. But the Reference Scenario assumes that no new breakthrough technologies beyond those known today will be used before 2030.
The World Alternative Scenario WEO also considers Alternative policy Scenario to analyze how the global energy market could evolve were countries around the world to adopt a set of policies and measures that they are either currently considering or might reasonably be expected to implement over the projection period. The purpose of this scenario is to provide insights into how effective those policies might be in addressing environmental and energy-security concerns.



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