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admin 08.10.2015

Decline in oil and gas exports and increasing cost of food imports resulted in Egypt’s trade deficit with the rest of the world growing to ?12 billion in 2012 [2]. This is the first in a series of posts telling the story of key countries through the lens of energy, population and economy. Figure 1 Oil and gas production less consumption provides a proxy for exports (and imports) [1]. Figure 3 Egypt’s energy consumption has increased 11 fold since 1970 as the population has doubled (Figure 4) and per capita energy consumption has increased 5 fold (Figure 6). Figure 5 The population pyramid of Egypt, with burgeoning numbers of young people, is typical of countries in the developing world [5]. Figure 7 Cross plotting per capita GDP with per capita energy consumption shows how the growth in productivity of individuals is closely linked to growth in their energy consumption.
Figure 8 In 2003, the Egyptian government undertook economic reforms and since then bilateral trade grew rapidly but faltered in 2008 [6]. Figure 10 While Egypt has bilateral trade in agricultural products with many countries, the three largest trading partners are the USA, Russia and Ukraine [7]. This entry was posted in Energy and tagged debt, economy, egypt, energy, food, gas, gdp, hydro, oil, population.
For instance, who in the world is happy with lowering the salary and celebrating the small step towards sustainability? Part of my plan is to look at many countries and then to start making comparisons, for example Egypt, Syria, Turkey, Libya and Algeria.
I can’t find the reference now, but I remember reading a short while back about a group of sociologists who built a computer model to simulate human economic interactions. On the other hand it is nice to know that there’s at least one computer model that replicates observations.
Authors like Naguib Mafouz were born before WW1 and their best work was done before WW2 – he got the Nobel Prize for literature in 1988. Personally, if I were running the country, I would aim to merge with the East of Libya – where most of the oil is. David Rutledge, in light of the comments by Alfred, do you really think Egypt with 80 million people is better off than when it had 20 million people in 1950? I suspect the Arab Spring was grounded in socio economic factors and spilled over to tribal and political factors. There can in my view be only two basic explanations for this.One is that they are so ill informed in respect to the realities of energy and other natural resources that they believe the money they are lending is actually going to be repaid with interest.
The other is that they know the loans are money down a rat hole but that they don’t dare say so or do anything differently because as individuals they are small cogs in a monstrously big machine.
If I had any money I would make very sure to keep it as far as possible away from the hands of bankers who lend to countries such as Egypt for fear of losing it. And if I had any friends in such a country I would be doing everything I could to help them get out while getting out is still at least possible. I can say as an agricultural professional that food production can be expanded to feed the world for another few decades but only if the actual material inputs are avail able. The entire world taken as a whole is in overshoot but it is not going to manifest equally in all places and on the same time frame.Large portions of Africa are in the throes of terminal Malthusian overshoot any given year.
There will be not just millions of refugees but tens of millions and the rest of the world is not going to be in a position to accept them even if it wanted to.
One avenue for possible change in the transportation sector is through the use of gas in transportation fuel production. CH4 emission factors specify average fugitive methane emissions associated with production and transportation of each fossil fuel reported for the Abundant Gas scenario.
However, population has ballooned from 36 million in 1970 to 81 million in 2012 and energy consumption has swollen in line with population growth [2]. Debt : GDP stands at a manageable 81% but Egypt can ill afford to allow this to grow indefinitely [3].
Oil exports have dwindled to zero and the Egyptian government has warned that gas exports may also cease this year. In recent years decline has stabilised, perhaps due to natural gas liquids (NGL) from the rapid expansion of gas production. A very large number of underemployed, educated young people, lies at the heart of social unrest in that country (Figure 5). This is one of the most important messages I expect to emerge from this series on energy population and economy of selected countries.
This chart is a time series of data points beginning at 1970 bottom left and ending at 2012 top right.


Since then exports have been declining resulting in the current account balance creeping more deeply into the red, in large part due to the fall in oil and gas exports (Figure 1). In recent years, there has been a sharp fall in imports from the USA compensated by a sharp rise in imports from Russia and Ukraine. Reduce the population by a factor of 10, and place the remainder on a strict energy and other resources diet.
They populated it with people with the same amount of money and the same level of ability, fed them the same career and investment opportunities and set the computer running. I may have been born there, but that was a very long time ago and it was really another place. Egypt may have many more schools and teachers than it did when I last lived there in 1962, but the quality is no longer there. He was murdered in Cairo by someone who considered the fiction he wrote half a century earlier offensive. One of my objectives here is to try and stimulate informed debate about energy and society. It is worthwhile remembering that before the British took over, Egypt was throwing its weight about and occupied much of today’s Greece, Palestine, Syria and Saudi Arabia. One link on the FT this weekend brought me a few hundreds hits – that was on Blackout Britain. Many agree that the Bakken and eagle Ford liquids plays will peak and decline within a number of years – devil in the detail.
Some women have cooked the placenta in a stew, mixed it into a smoothie, or even taken it raw to tap into its powerful effects. Egypt needs a plan to boost exports and to use its energy resources to produce higher value GDP. The combined primary energy production has been on a plateau just above 90 mbpd for several years. It is not possible to generate meaningful GDP without energy, and growth in energy supplies or increasing efficiency is essential for economic growth. Somewhat worryingly for Egypt the efficiency of energy use to generate GDP has not increased since 1970, if anything it has fallen to $1528 per toe per capita.
This view is borne out by the fact that Egypt’s trade in agricultural products (excluding cotton) with the rest of the world stood at a $6 billion deficit in 2012 [7]. One can only guess that this reflects prices and perhaps manoeuvring of the former Soviet Union for greater influence in The Middle East and North Africa. There is oil and gas production, a large refining sector, tourism, agriculture and the military.
Or are they building CCGTs and providing electricity to parts of the population for the first time? I mean, when you go back to London after 10-20 years away, you quickly realize that it has not really changed that much. We lived a short distance from a military airport (Almaza) and the then presidential compound.
We had lived like princes in Egypt and moving to a middle-class English existence was something that my parents never managed to adapt to. The wood that the Ancient Egyptians used for building boats with came from places like Lebanon, Syria and Cyprus. Do they want prosperity or some form of blissful Medieval ideal where life expectancy was 40 and infant mortality huge?
Most readers of the FT seem to think that the US will soon be sending so much gas to the EU that the Russians are not needed, for example. Religion is a huge red-herring and has been much used by outsiders to screw up the Egyptians. For many who feel squeamish about this or want to reap the benefits of placenta for more than just a day or two, there is another option: encapsulation. With debt:GDP = 81%, the loss of oil and gas export revenues combined with the prospect of mounting energy imports leaves Egypt in a similar fix to the UK where an escalating trade deficit must be financed by increasing debt. The EIA reports promising new discoveries awaiting development but it remains to be seen if these are sufficient to maintain production at current levels [4]. This is large enough that I suspect that any measure of social welfare for Egypt will have improved over this time period. I’d guess the haves have quite a lot and the have nots will be unemployed and dependent upon state handouts. They may get excellent marks at school, but I consider them quite ignorant compared to myself at their age.


We had a tank under a mango tree across the street – with a one-armed sergeant who liked to show us kids his tank.
Cairo was largely a quick-food society, because cooking only made sense in large quantities. I know it sounds crazy to most people here, but that is what the MSM leads them to believe.
I am not saying he is not scary, just that he is as corrupt his predecessors and everyone can see that. But the US seems to be building LNG export terminals, I just don’t see them ever being used.
Surprisingly, GDP has not been severely impacted by the 2011 revolution although the rate of GDP growth may have slowed a little.
The Egyptian economy, therefore, is merely doubling the value of the energy inputs, and while I have not yet checked the data, I imagine that mature developed economies will lever much more value out of the energy consumed. The sudden expansion of the food trade deficit will reflect the global increase in food prices that has underpinned social unrest in many countries. And so, while the have nots are probably better off than they were 40 years ago I’d bet the gap has also widened.
We used to avidly read books by loads of local authors as well as translations into Arabic of the classics – from French, Russian and English. Shaded areas are ranges of projections found in the literature obtained from the IPCC AR5 database37.
I have absolutely no idea how Egypt will survive with 80+ million people in an age of declining oil, gas and tourism. A As a source of rich nutrients, the placenta was considered a gift from the baby by many cultures.
Furthermore, they have blown all their chances at industrialising like China by allowing imports of manufactured goods without getting anything deals in return. Across the globe, the placenta has been used medicinally throughout history a€“ from hormone replacement to the treatment of skin conditions.
Egypt could be a fantastic exporter of vegetables and fruit to Europe – but the EU will not allow it. A Will placenta capsules help with my breast milk supply?Prostaglandin, contained in the placenta in high levels, stimulates the shrinking of the uterus.
Middle Eastern wars were relatively innocent in those days, although my father nearly perished.
It is ridiculous that places like the Netherlands should use their gas for heating up hothouses to grow crap produce when the sun is for free in Egypt. It also has small amounts of oxytocin, an element that reduces birth stress, and brings on the contraction of the mammary cells so they ooze milk. Only the driver and his mate (Deeb and Salah) escaped because they were able to escape through the side not under attack. A The first and still one of the few ever studies on using placenta as a lactagogon gave incredible results. 181 out of 210 women who were given dried placenta to increasemilk supply had positive results and saw an increase in their milk supply.
The efficacy of increasing milk production with dried placenta has been backed up with scientific research, which gave women dried human placenta vs. Ia€™ve been told the placenta is a bio-hazard.Uninformed people call the placenta a biohazard. All of my equipment is used solely for encapsulation and is disinfected with a hospital quality cleaner that is effective against HBV and HIV (the viruses that cause Hepatitis B and AIDS), and meets OSHA requirements for blood spill clean-up. I am careful to go beyond OSHAa€™s rigid requirements to ensure total safety everyone involved.I delivered my baby some time ago and my placenta is in the freezer. Is it too late to encapsulate it?Although it is best to process the placenta within 72 hours, all hormones and some nutrients are still viable and beneficial for up toA one year, if theplacenta is fully frozen.
Soon after the placenta is birthed, create a little mini-fridge for it by putting one frozen pack on the bottom of the bag, then the placenta, then the second frozen pack and, then, do up the zipper with just the cord coming out of the corner of the zipped up bag.



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