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CapTherm has been conducting in-depth studies to determine the effect operating temperature has on operating efficiency and power consumption in high-powered electronics and semiconductors. Given our core products’ capacity for reducing energy consumption for our customers, CapTherm is already well-positioned to be a facilitator of greater sustainability. CapTherm’s sustainability strategy unfolds in the way we do business and is reflected through our company infrastructure.
Our corporate governance framework prompts us to select responsible suppliers, outsourcers and distributors. CapTherm uses a refrigerant with zero Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) and zero Global Warming Potential (GWP). Global warming from the increase in greenhouse gases has become a major scientific and political issue during the past decade. WITHIN THE PAST YEAR COVER STORIES OF BOTH Time and Newsweek have featured global warming from the greenhouse effect and ozone depletion from industrial chemicals.
The greenhouse effect, despite all the controversy that surrounds the term, is actually one of the most well-established theories in atmospheric science. It is helpful to break down the set of issues known as the greenhouse effect into a series of stages, each feeding into another, and then to consider how policy questions might be addressed in the context of these more technical stages. The first term represents engineering effects, the second standard of living, and the third demography in this version, which is expanded from the original. Other greenhouse gases like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), CH4, nitrogen oxides, tropospheric ozone, and others could, together, be as important as CO2 in augmenting the greenhouse effect, but some of these depend on human behavior and have complicated biogeochemical interactions. Furthermore, because the slow removal of CO2 from the atmosphere is largely accomplished through biological and chemical processes in the oceans and decades to centuries are needed for equilibration after a large perturbation, the rates at which climate change modifies mixing processes in the ocean (and thus the CO2 residence time) also needs to be taken into account. We cannot directly verify our quantitative predictions of greenhouse warming on the basis of purely historical events (31); therefore, we must base our estimates on natural analogs of large climatic changes and numerical climatic models because the complexity of the real world cannot be reproduced in laboratory models.
The largest uncertainty in estimating the sensitivity of Earth's surface temperature to a given increase in radiative forcing arises from the problem of parameterization. The first verification method is checking the ability of a model to simulate today's climate.
A second verification technique is isolating individual physical components of the model, such as its parameterizations, and testing them against high resolution sub models and actual data at high resolution. A third method for determining overall simulation skill is the model's ability to reproduce past climates or climates of other planets. Overall validation of climatic models thus depends on constant appraisal and reappraisal of performance in the above categories. Most recent climatic models predict that a warming of at least 1deg.C should have occurred during the past century.
Despite this array of excuses why observed global temperature trends in the past century and those anticipated by most GCMs disagree somewhat, the twofold discrepancy between predicted and measured temperature changes is not large, but still of concern. Another decade or two of observations of trends in Earth's climate, of course, should produce signal-to-noise ratios sufficiently high that we will be able to determine conclusively the validity of present estimates of climatic sensitivity to increasing trace greenhouse gases. Climate changes resulting from greenhouse gas increases could also significantly affect water supply and demand.
Water quality will be diminished if the same volume of wastes are discharged through decreased stream flow. The second class of policy action, one that tends to be favored by many economists, is adaptation (63). In the case of water supply management, the American Association for the Advancement of Science panel on Climate Change made a strong, potentially controversial, but, I believe, rather obvious adaptive suggestion: governments at all levels should reevaluate the legal, technical, and economic components of water supply management to account for the likelihood of climate change, stressing efficient techniques for water use, and new management practices to increase the flexibility of water systems and recognizing the need to reconsider existing compacts, ownership, and other legal baggage associated with the present water system.
Finally, the most active policy category is prevention, which could take the form of sulfur scrubbers in the case of acid rain, abandonment of the use of chlorofluorocarbons and other potential ozone-reducing gases (particularly those that also enhance global warming), reduction in the amount of fossil fuel used around the world or fossil fuel switching from more CO2- and SO2-producing coal to cleaner, less polluting methane fuels.
In summary, a substantial warming of the climate through the augmentation to the greenhouse effect is very likely if current technological, economic, and demographic trends continue.
Clearly, society does not have the resources to hedge against all possible negative future outcomes.
Development of alternative, environmentally safer energy technologies is another example of a tie-in strategy, as is the development and testing of alternative crop strains, trading agreements with nations for food or other climatically dependent strategic commodities, and so forth. If we choose to wait for more scientific certainty over details before preventive actions are initiated, then this is done at the risk of our having to adapt to a larger, faster occurring dose of greenhouse gases than if actions were initiated today.
Incentives for investments to improve energy efficiency, to develop less polluting alternatives, control methane emissions, or phase out CFCs may require policies that charge user fees on activities in proportion to the amount of pollution each generates.
The bottom line of the implications of atmospheric change is that we are perturbing the environment at a faster rate than we can understand or predict the consequences.
We believe that, by solving basic cooling problems, we will definitely improve energy efficiency but will also open up the scope for much more flexible industrial design possibilities.
However, we also strive to implement sustainability practices throughout our internal company infrastructure, in concert with our internal stakeholders and shareholders and, externally, with our supplier relationships.
We are constantly driven to develop and commercialize cleantech innovation and we strive to create and internalize a culture for sustainability and energy conservation among all our stake and shareholders.
We aim to develop a corporate image that is in line with the products we develop and the value proposition they convey.
Instead of the traditional welding techniques we use ultrasonic welding equipment in most production steps, avoiding the traditional use of chemicals and fossil fuels. That infrared radiation is trapped by greenhouse gases and particles in a planetary atmosphere and that the atmospheric CO2 level has increased by some 25 percent since 1850 because of fossil fuel combustion and land use (largely deforestation) are not controversial; levels of other trace greenhouse gases such as methane and chlorofluorocarbons have increased by even larger factors. The intense heat, forest fires, and drought of the summer of 1988 and the observation that the 1980s are the warmest decade on record have ignited an explosion of media, public, and governmental concern that the long debated global warming has arrived--and prompted some urgent calls for actions to deal with it. For example, with its dense CO2 atmosphere, Venus has temperatures near 700 K at its surface. 2) have been made at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU).
Behavioral assumptions must be made in order to project future use of fossil fuels (or deforestation, because this too can impact the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere--it accounts for about 20% of the recent total CO2 injection of about 5.5 x 10 9 metric tons). 3) that show alternative CO2 futures based on assumed rates of growth in the use of fossil fuels (11).
Once a plausible set of scenarios for how much CO2 will be injected into the atmosphere is obtained the interacting biogeochemical processes that control the global distribution and stocks of the carbon need to be determined.
There is considerable uncertainty about how much newly injected CO2 will remain in the air during the next century, but typical estimates put this so-called "airborne fraction" at about 50%. Once we have projected how much CO2 (and other trace greenhouse gases) may be in the air during the next century or so, we have to estimate its climatic effect. In the mathematical models, the known basic physical laws are applied to the atmosphere, oceans, and ice sheets, and the equations that represent these laws are solved with the best computers available (32). Because the equations that are believed to represent the flows of mass, momentum, and energy in the atmosphere, oceans, ice fields, and biosphere cannot be solved analytically with any known techniques, approximation techniques are used in which the equations are discretized with a finite grid that divides the region of interest into cells that are several hundred kilometers or more on a side.
In order to make useful estimates of the effects of climatic changes, we need to determine the regional distribution of climatic change. 5 (34)], considerable uncertainty remains over the probability that these predicted regional features will occur. Of course, it is appropriate to ask how climatic models' predictions of unprecedented climatic change beyond the next several decades might be verified. Reproduction of the seasonal cycle is one critical test because these natural temperature changes are several times larger, on a hemispheric average, than the change from an ice age to an interglacial period or a projected greenhouse warming.
For example, one can check whether a parameterized evaporation matches the observed evaporation of a particular cell. Paleoclimatic simulations of the Mesozoic Era, glacial-interglacial cycles, or other extreme past climates help in understanding the coevolution of Earth's climate with living things. Also important are a model's response to such century-long forcings as the 25% increase in CO2 concentration and different increases in other trace greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution. The precise "forecast" of the past 100 years also depends upon how the model accounts for such factors as changes in the solar constant or volcanic dust as well as trace greenhouse gases in addition to CO2 (42). This rough validation is reinforced by the good simulation by most climatic models of the seasonal cycle, diverse ancient paleoclimates, hot conditions on Venus, cold conditions on Mars (both well simulated), and the present distribution of climates on Earth.
That, however, is not a cost-free enterprise because a greater amount of change could occur then than if actions were undertaken now to slow down the buildup rate of greenhouse gases. Given a set of scenarios for regional climatic change we must next estimate the impacts on the environment and society (46, 47). For example, a local increase in temperature of several degrees Celsius could decrease runoff in the Colorado River Basin by tens of percent (25, 48). In addition, irrigation demand (and thus pressure on ground-water supplies) may increase substantially if temperatures increase without concomitant offsetting increases in precipitation. The estimation of the distribution of economic "winners and losers," given a scenario of climatic change, involves more than simply looking at the total dollars lost and gained--were it possible somehow to make such a calculation credibly!
5 were to occur, then it would have disturbing implications for agriculture in the U.S and Canadian plains. The last stage in diagnosing the greenhouse effect concerns the question of appropriate policy responses. In light of rapid climate change, we need to reexamine the balance between private rights and the public good, because water is intimately connected with both. Prevention policies, often advocated by environmentalists, are controversial because they involve, in some cases, substantial immediate investments as insurance against the possibility of large future environmental change, change whose details cannot be predicted precisely. Rapid climatic changes will cause both ecological and physical systems to go out of equilibrium--a transient condition that makes detailed predictions tenuous. Is there, then, some simple principle that can help us choose which actions to spend our resources on? However, there would be in some circles ideological opposition to such strategies on the grounds that these activities should be pursued by individual investment decisions through a market economy, not by collective action using tax revenues or other incentives.
This strategy might differentially impact less developed nations, or segments of the population such as coal miners or the poor.
In 1957, Revelle and Suess (74) pointed out that we were undergoing a great "geophysical experiment." In the 30 years since that prophetic remark, CO2 levels have risen more than 10% in the atmosphere, and there have been even larger increases in the concentrations of methane and CFCs. Analyses of CO2, CH4, and other atmospheric constituents have been made in Greenland [A Neftel, H.
A number of authors addressed the problem of the cause of the increase in CO2 at the end of the last glacial period some 10,000 to 15,000 years ago; E.
A number of assessments in this decade have all reached the conclusion that increases in the CO2 concentration will almost certainly cause global warming. On century time scales, changes of a few degrees Celsius per centyury appear to have occurred. Studies of the adaptation of various sectors of society to past climatic variability can serve as a guide that helps to calibrate how societies might be impacted by specific greenhouse gas-induced climatic changes in the future, such studies include R.
Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply, Studies in Geophysics (National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC 1977); M. Much of the decision as to whether it is cost effective to wait or act against potential threats depends upon the discount rate used to value potential future losses. In the example of water supplies and climatic change, most of the local policy decisions facing urban water engineers or rural irrigation planners would be easiest to face if we had more credible specific regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation changes (48).
Conference statement, Thc Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 27 to 30 June 1988 (Environment Canada, Toronto, 1988). It is important to ask how long it might take the scientific community to be able to provide more credible time-evolving regional climatic anomaly forecasts from increasing greenhouse gases; S. In addition, all our products and supplies are in compliance with environmental ROHS, ReACH directives and our supply chain has been optimized to reduce and minimize our carbon footprint. For example, the National Energy Policy Act of 1988 to control carbon dioxide emissions was introduced by Senator Wirth in August 1988, and hearings were held on 11 August.
Although some identical instrumental records were used in each study, the methods of analysis were different.
Most typical projections are in the 0.5 to 2% annual growth range for fossil fuel use and imply that CO2 concentrations will double (to 600 ppm) in the 21st century (12, 12a).
Such processes involve the uptake of CO2 by green plants (because CO2 is the basis of photosynthesis, more CO2 in the air means faster rates of photosynthesis), changes in the amount of forested area and vegetation type, and how CO2 fertilization or climate change affects natural ecosystems on land and in the oceans (19).
Reducing CO2 emissions could initially provide a bonus by allowing the reduction of the airborne fraction, whereas increasing CO2 emissions could increase the airborne fraction and exacerbate the greenhouse effect (22). Then, we simply change in the computer program the effective amount of greenhouse gases, repeat our calculation, and compare it to the "control" calculation for the present Earth. Clearly, critically important variables, such as clouds, which control the radiation budget of Earth, do not occur on scales as large as the grid of a general circulation model. Will it be drier in Iowa in 2010, too hot in India, wetter in Africa, or more humid in New York; will California be prone to more forest fires or will Venice flood?
The principal reasons for the uncertainty are twofold: the crude treatment in climatic models of biological and hydrological processes (35) and the usual neglect of the effects of the deep oceans (36). Can society make trillion dollar decisions about global economic developments based on the projections of these admittedly dirty crystal balls? Also, "fast physics" such as cloud parameterizations can be tested by seasonal simulations or weather forecasts.
But this technique cannot guarantee that the complex interactions of many individual model components are treated properly. Indeed, the typical prediction of a 1deg.C warming is broadly consistent but somewhat larger than that observed (see Fig.
When taken together, these verifications provide strong circumstantial evidence that the current modeling of the sensitivity of global surface temperature to given increases in greenhouse gases over the next 50 years or so is probably valid within a rough factor of 2. Most researchers have focused on the direct effects of CO2 increases or used model-predicted maps of temperature and rainfall patterns to estimate impacts on crop yields or water supplies (29a, 30, 48, 49).
A study (53) of the vulnerability to climate change of various water resource regions in the United States showed that some regions are quite vulnerable to climatic changes (Table 1).
A number of climate models suggest that temperatures could increase and precipitation decrease simultaneously in several areas, including the central plains of the United States.
It also requires looking at these important equity questions: "who wins and who loses?" and "how might the losers be compensated and the winners charged?" For example, if the Cornbelt in the United States were to "move" north and east by several hundred kilometers from a warming, then a billion dollars a year lost in Iowa farms could well eventually become Minnesota's billion dollar gain. In extreme form, some believe in adaptation without attempting to mitigate or to prevent the changes in advance.


Regional transfers from water-abundant regions to water-deficient regions are often prohibited by legal or economic impediments that need to be examined as part of a hedging strategy for adapting more effectively to the prospect of climatic change even though regional details cannot now be reliably forecast (66). The sorts of preventive policies that could be considered are increasing the efficiency of energy production and end use, the development of alternative energy systems that are not fossil fuel-based, or, in a far-reaching proposal: a "law of the air" proposed by Kellogg and Mead (67).
The faster the changes take place, the less societies or natural ecosystems will be able to adapt to them without potentially serious disruptions.
In rebuttal, a market which does not include the costs of environmental disruptions can hardly be considered a truly free market. Of course, whether to act is not a scientific judgment, but a value-laden political choice that cannot be resolved by scientific methods.
The 1980s appear to have seen the warmest temperatures in the instrumental record, and 1988 saw a combination of dramatic circumstances that gained much media attention: extended heat waves across most of the United States, intense drought, forest fires in the West, an extremely intense hurricane, and flooding in Bangladesh. Hansen remarked that the greenhouse effect was "99%" likely to be associated with the recent temperature trends of the instrumental record. Contributions to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1988). Woodwell, congressional testimony before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, 23 June 1988 (Congr. Revelle in Changing Climate, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1983), pp.
These indude National Academy of Sciences, Changing Climate, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1983); (29a). One such example, the so called Younger Dryas glacial readvance, had a major ecological impact in Europe (4).
Dobson, in Proceedings of Conference on the Consequences of the Effect for Biological Diversity, R Peters, Ed. The report noted that the "first steps in developing international law and practices to address pollution of the air have already been taken. Contributions to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1988); S. Management, share and stakeholders all display various biographies that link to a background of sustainability and environmental consciousness.
There have also recently been controversial claims that a global warming signal has been detected.
At that hearing, there were sharply conflicting views about whether policy actions are premature given the many remaining scientific uncertainties (1,la). The primary explanation of the current Venus "runaway greenhouse" and the frigid Martian surface has long been quite clear and straightforward: the greenhouse effect (3) . Projections must be made of human population, the per capita consumption of fossil fuel, deforestation rates, reforestation activities, and perhaps even countermeasures to deal with the extra CO2 in the air.
The transition from ice age to interglacial climates provides a concrete example of how large natural climatic change affected natural ecosystems in North America. However, this bonus might last only a decade or so, which is the time it takes for the upper mixed layer of the oceans to mix with deep ocean water. For example, if added CO2 were to cause a temperature increase on earth, the warming would likely decrease the regions of Earth covered by snow and ice and decrease the global albedo.
Many such global climatic models (GCMs) have been built during the past few decades, and the results are in rough agreement that if CO2 were to double from 300 to 600 ppm, then Earth's surface temperature would eventually warm up somewhere between 1deg. Therefore, we seek to find a parametric representation or parameterization that relates implicitly the effects of important processes that operate at subgrid-scale but still have effects at the resolution of a typical general circulation model. Unfortunately, reliable prediction of the time sequence of local and regional responses of variables such as temperature and rainfall requires climatic models of greater complexity and expense than are currently available. The deep oceans would respond slowly--on time scales of many decades to centuries--to climatic warming at the surface, and also act differentially (that is, non uniformly in space and through time). Most climatologists do not yet proclaim that the observed temperature changes this century were caused beyond doubt by the greenhouse effect. Also of concern is the potential that temperature increases will alter the range or numbers of pests that affect plants, or diseases that threaten animals or human health (50, 50a). Although some macro-economists viewing this hypothetical problem from the perspective of the United States as a whole might see no net losses here, considerable social consternation could be generated by such a shift in climatic resources, particularly since the cause was economic activities (that is CO2 production) that directed differential costs and benefits to various groups.
The more rapidly the climate changed and the less accurately the changes were predicted (which go together), the more likely that the net changes would be detrimental.
First, engineering countermeasures: purposeful interventions in the environment to minimize the potential effects [for example, deliberately spreading dust in the stratosphere to reflect some extra sunlight to cool the climate as a countermeasure to the inadvertent CO2 warming (60)].
Such a strategy is based partly on the argument that society will be able to replace much of its infrastructure before major climatic changes materialize, and that because of the large uncertainties, we are better off waiting to see what will happen before making potentially unnecessary investments. They suggest that various nations would be assigned polluting rights to keep CO2 emissions below some agreed global standard.
Both the rate and magnitude of typical projections up to 2050 suggest that climatic changes beyond that experienced by civilization could occur. Quite simply, society should pursue those actions that provide widely agreed societal benefits even if the predicted change does not materialize. Furthermore, strategic investments are made routinely on non economic (that is, cost-benefit analyses are secondary) criteria even by the most politically conservative people: to purchase military security. However, is it more appropriate to subsidize poverty, for example, through artificially lower prices of energy which distort the market and discourage efficient energy end use or alternative production, or is it better to fight poverty by direct economic aid? Indeed, many people interpreted (prematurely, I believe) these events in 1988 as proof that human augmentation to the greenhouse effect had finally arrived (75). Ausubel, Climatic Change and the Carbon Wealth of Nations (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Working Paper WP-80-75, Laxenburg, 1980); _____A. Yohe in Changing Climate, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1983), pp. MacDonald, in Preparing for Climate Change, Proceedings of the First North American Conference on Preparing for Climatic Change: A Cooperative Approach, Washington, DC, 27 to 29 October (Government Institutes, Rockville, MD, 1988), pp. Changes of up to 1deg.C per century may also have occurred this millennium, but the rate of change did not yet approach the several degree Celsius change estimated for the 21st centuty. Weihe, in Proceedings of the World Climate Conference (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 1979). Gradwohl and R Greenberg, Saving the Tropical Forests (Island Press, Washington, DC, 1988). Hekstra, in Proceedings of Controlling and Adapting to Greenhouse Warming (Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, in press); M.
Thus, strategies to build flexibility in adapting to changing climate statistics seem appropriate for local or regional water supply planning. Several examples are cited in it, in particular the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone, Air, and Its Montreal Protocol signed in 1987. The majority of the processes we have chosen for manufacturing clearly display our mandate for sustainability and energy efficiency. Results from most recent climatic models suggest that global average surface temperatures will increase by some 2deg. Whether some amount of scientific uncertainty is "enough" to justify action or delay it is not a scientific judgment testable by any standard scientific method.
The greenhouse effect works because some gases and particles in an atmosphere preferentially allow sunlight to filter through to the surface of the planet relative to the amount of radiant infrared energy that the atmosphere allows to escape back up to space. These records have been criticized because a number of the thermometers were in city centers and might have measured a spurious warming from the urban heat island (7). These projections depend on issues such as the likelihood that alternative energy systems or conservation measures will be available, their price, and their social acceptability.
The record at Mauna Loa observatory shows that concentrations have increased from about 310 to more than 350 ppm since 1958. The initial warming would thus create a darker planet that would absorb more energy, thereby creating a larger final warming (26, 27). For example, a parameter or proportionality coefficient might be used that describes the average cloudiness in grid cell in terms of the mean relative humidity in that cell and some other measures of atmospheric stability. Even though the models have been used to estimate the responses of these variables, the regional predictions from state-of-the-art models are not yet reliable. Therefore, the oceans, like the forests, would be out of equilibrium with the atmosphere if greenhouse gases increase as rapidly as typically is projected and if climatic warming were to occur as fast as 2deg. In this case, simulation of overall climatic response to increased CO2 is likely to be inaccurate.
The relation between the observed century-long trend and the predicted warming could still be chance occurrences, or other factors, such as solar constant variations or volcanic dust, may not have been accounted for correctly during the past century--except during the past decade when accurate measurements began to be made. Moreover, even the perception that the economic activities of one nation could create climatic changes that would be detrimental to another has the potential for disrupting international relations--as is already occurring in the case of acid rain. These countermeasures suffer from the immediate and obvious flaw that if there is admitted uncertainty associated with predicting the unintentional consequences of human activities, then likewise substantial uncertainty surrounds any deliberate climatic modification. However, it appears quite likely that we are already committed to some climatic change based on emissions to date, and therefore some anticipatory steps to make adaptation easier certainly seems prudent (64). A "Law of the Atmosphere" was recently endorsed in the report of a major international meeting (68). The faster the climate is forced to change, the more likely there will be unexpected surprises lurking (69).
For instance, one of the principal ways to slow down the rate at which the greenhouse effect will be enhanced is to invest in more efficient use and production of energy. Perhaps targeting some fraction of an energy tax to help those immediately disadvantaged would improve the political tractability of any attempt to internalize the external costs of pollution not currently charged to energy production or end use. Should the rapid warming in the instrumental record of the past 10 years continue into the 1990s, then a vast majority of atmospheric scientists will undoubtedly agree that the greenhouse signal has been felt.
Helena, an island station in the Atlantic, which in the 1970s had a thermometer moved about 150 m down a mountain. A number of other biological factors could affect the CO2 concentration through feedback processes. Tirpak, Eds., The Potential Effects of a Global Climate Change on the United States Draft Report to Congress (Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, October 1988) vol. Because of uncertainty over details, an individual planner in a region may face difficulty in choosing exactly how to respond to the advent or prospect of rapid climate change.
The report states that "These are important first steps and should be activly implemented and respected by all nations.
Rather, it is a personal value choice that depends upon whether one fears more investing present resources as a hedge against potential future change or, alternatively, fears rapid future change descending without some attempt to slow it down or work actively to make adaptation to that change easier. In other cases thermometers were moved from cities to airports or up and down mountains, and some other measurements are also unreliable.
Furthermore, trade in fuel carbon (for example, a large-scale transfer from coal-rich to coal-poor nations) will depend not only on the energy requirements and the available alternatives but also on the economic health of the potential importing nations (9). Superimposed on this trend is a large annual cycle in which CO2 reaches a maximum in the spring of each year in the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum in the fall. Furthermore, this assumption forces us to ignore possible relations between CH4 and water vapor in the stratosphere, for example, which might affect polar stratospheric clouds, which are believed to enhance photochemical destruction of ozone by chlorine atoms. For example, enhanced photosynthesis could reduce the buildup rate of CO2 relative to that projected with carbon cycle models that do not include such an effect (23). Then, the important task becomes validating these semiempirical parameterizations because at some scale, all models, no matter how high resolution, must treat subgrid-scale processes through parameterization. However, successful reproduction of these seasonal patterns are not enough that strong validation can be claimed.
A model should reproduce to better than, say, 25% accuracy the flow of thermal energy between the atmosphere, surface, and space (Fig. For example, ecologists are concerned that the destruction rate of tropical forests attributed to human expansion is eroding the genetic diversity of the planet (51). The greatest impact would be in the western states and the Great Plains, less in the Northwest. Thus, it is quite possible that the unintentional change might be overestimated by computer models and the intentional change underestimated, in which case human intervention would be a "cure worse than the disease" (61). We could adapt to climate change, for example, by planting alternative crop strains that would be more widely adapted to a whole range of plausible climatic futures. The consensus about the likelihood of future global change weakens over detailed assessments of the precise timing and geographic distribution of potential effects and crumbles over the value question of whether present information is sufficient to generate a societal response stronger than more scientific research on the problems--appropriate (but self-serving) advice which we scientists, myself included, somehow always manage to recommend (70). More efficiency, therefore, would reduce the growing disequilibrium among physical, biological, and social systems and could buy time both to study the detailed implications of the greenhouse effect further and ensure an easier adaptation. Similarly, people purchase insurance as a hedge against plausible, but uncertain, future problems. In any case, consideration of these political issues will be essential if global scale agreements are to be negotiated, and without global scale agreements, no nation acting alone can reduce global warming by more than 10% or so (73). Unfortunately, if society chooses to wait another decade or more for certain proof, then this behavior raises the risk that we will have to adapt to a larger amount of climate change than if actions to slow down the buildup of greenhouse gases were pursued more vigorously today. Some of these are suggested to be a substantial positive feedback, perhaps doubling the sensitivity of the climate to initial greenhouse injections according to D.
Parkinson, An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling (University Science, Mill Valley, CA, 1986).
Meier et al., Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level (National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, 1985). Rosenberg, RESOURCES for the future Conference Proceedings, in press; The scenario with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory computer model for soil drying is more severe in central North America than that for other models, such as the Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Thompson [in The Global Possible: Resources Development and the New Century, R Repetto, Ed. But this should not necessarily deter strategic hedging at national or international levels.
However, there is no overall convention constituting a comprehensive international framework that could address the interrelated problems of the global atmosphere, or that is directed toward the issues of climate change".
That value choice can only be made efficiently by a society in which those involved in the decision-making process are aware of the nature of the scientific evidence. This trade in turn will depend upon whether those nations have adequate capital resources to spend on energy rather than other precious strategic commodities--such as food or fertilizer as well as some other strategic materials such as weaponry.


The fall minimum is generally thought to result from growth of the seasonal biosphere in the Northern Hemisphere summer whereby photosynthesis increases faster than respiration and atmospheric CO2 levels are reduced. The boreal species now in Canada were hugging the rim of the great Laurentide glacier in the U.S. On the other hand, although there is about as much carbon stored in the forests as there is in the atmosphere, there is about twice as much carbon stored in the soils in the form of dead organic matter.
Clouds can change in amount, height, or brightness, for example, substantially altering the climatic response to CO2 (28).
For comparison, the global average surface temperature (land and ocean) during the Ice Age extreme 18,000 years ago was only about 5deg.C colder than that today.
This typical projection, recall, is 10 to 60 times as fast as the natural average rate of temperature change that occurred from the end of the last Ice Age to the present warm period (that is, 2deg. That is, because the tropical forests are in a sense major banks for the bulk of living genetic materials on Earth, the world is losing some of its irreplaceable biological resources through rapid development. The warm, dry combination would increase depletion of streams and reduce viable acreage by nearly a third in the arid regions. Furthermore, the prospect for international tensions resulting from any deliberate environmental modifications is staggering, and our legal instruments to deal with these tensions is immature (62). Of course, if we do not know what is coming or we have not developed or tested the seeds yet, we may well suffer substantial losses during the transition to the new climate. However, if the greenhouse effects now projected prove to be substantial overestimates, what would be wasted by an energy efficiency strategy?
The judgment here is whether strategic consciousness, widely accepted across the political spectrum, needs to be extended to other potential threats to security, including a substantially altered environment occurring on a global scale at unprecedented rates. At a minimum, we can enhance our interdisciplinary research efforts to reduce uncertainties in physical, biological, and social scientific areas (76). Karl also pointed out that changes in the times of observations as well as urbanization effects have contaminated a number of U.S. Warrick, Eds., The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change and Ecosystems (Wiley, New York, 1986). The agricultural consequences of a number of model scenarios including hypothetical increases in yield resulting from direct CO2 fertilization and decreases due to heat stress or drought stress are assessed in (57). In other words, most local or regional water supply planners would not welcome the prospect of rapidly changing climate. It set forth a far-reaching action plan that would have major implications for government, industry, and populations. Mikkelson for efficient word processing and correcting several drafts of the manuscript very quickly. Forecasts of the distribution of variables such as soil moisture or precipitation pattern have even greater uncertainties. The public and governmental officials need to know which uncertainties are reducible, which may not be reducible, and how long it might take to narrow the reducible uncertainties. Therefore, increasing the amount of greenhouse gases increases the planet's surface temperature by increasing the amount of heat that is trapped in the lowest part of the atmosphere.
After September, the reverse occurs and respiration proceeds at a faster rate than photosynthesis and CO2 levels increase (13). Northeast some 10,000 years ago, while now abundant hardwood species were restricted to small refuges largely in the South. Reproduction of the change in daily variance of these variables with the seasons is another tough test (40).
Together, these energy flows comprise the well-established energy balance of Earth and constitute a formidable and necessary test for all models.
Substantial changes in tropical rainfall have been predicted on the basis of climatic models; reserves (or refugia) that are currently set aside as minimal solutions for the preservation of some genetic resources into the future may not even be as effective as currently planned (52). New supplies of water would be needed, threatening ground water and the viability of agriculture in these regions. Thus, acceptance of any substantial climate countermeasure strategies for the foreseeable future is hard to imagine, particularly because there are other more viable alternatives. But such adaptations are often recommended because of the uncertain nature of the specific redistributive character of future climatic change and because of high discount rates (65). Efficiency usually makes good economic sense (although the rate of investment in efficiency does depend, of course, on other competing uses of those financial resources and on the discount rate used).
But I believe enough is known already to go beyond research and begin to implement policies to enhance adaptation and to slow down the rapid buildup of greenhouse gases, a buildup that poses a considerable probability of unprecedented global-scale climatic change within our lifetimes.
92] suggest that there is a direct association between past atmospheric temperature and CO2 content. Although no general rules for any crop or region could be deterrnined from the EPA analysis (chap. Schelling, in Changing Climate Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee (National Academy Press, Washington, DC 1983), p. Energy 5 107 (1980)] described how damage from a sea level rise of 8 m could cost about 1 trillion 1980 dollars some 150 years in the future. Therefore, most planners would hold that if the rate of climate change could be slowed down and time bought to study the outcomes and to adapt more cheaply than this would be an appropriate recommended national-level strategic response. This report follows on the heels of the United Nations Commission on Environment and Development, known as the Brundand Commission Report, which argued that environment, development, and security should not be treated as separate issues, but rather as connected problems. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
Policy responses range from engineering countermeasures to passive adaptation to prevention and a "law of the atmosphere." One approach is to implement those policies now that will reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and have additional societal benefits. Uncertainties easily reducible in a few years might encourage waiting before implementing policy whereas uncertainties that are unreducible or difficult to reduce might suggest acting sooner. What is controversial about the greenhouse effect is exactly how much Earth's surface temperature will rise given a certain increase in a trace greenhouse gas such as CO2. Analyses of trapped air in several ice cores (14) suggest that during the past several thousand years of the present interglacial, CO2 levels have been reasonably close to the pre industrial value of 280 ppm. Because the rate of this decomposition depends on temperature, global warming from increased greenhouse gases could cause enhanced rates of microbial decomposition of necromass (dead organic matter) (24), thereby causing a positive feedback that would enhance CO2 buildup. The seasonal tests, however, do not indicate how well a model simulates such medium or slow processes as changes in deep ocean circulation or ice cover, which may have an important effect on the decade to century time scales during which the CO2 concentration is expected to double. On the other hand, farmers in the East, and particularly in the Southeast, might profit if the depletion of eastern rivers were relatively less severe than that in the West or the Plains. However, reductions in emissions of fossil fuels, especially coal, will certainly reduce acid rain, limit negative health effects in crowded areas from air pollution, and lower dependence on foreign sources of fuel, especially oil.
They suggest that previos CO2 concentrations of 600 ppm had warmed the globe by 3deg.C relative to today.
On the other hand, because a warming of Antarctica would almost certainly increase snowfall without raising temperatures sufficiently to create summer melt a doubling of thc snowfall over Antarcrica could lower sea level perhaps as much as 1 mm per year. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in a comprehensive study of potential scenarios of climate change for the United States (57), concluded that building of bulkheads and levies, pumping sand, and raising barrier islands to protect areas against a l-m rise in sea level by 2100 would cost $73 billion to $100 billion (cumulative capital costs in 1985 dollars).
10), crop yield changes from a few tens of percent advantages to 50% reductions were obtained. As a discount rate of 7% per year, which implies a doubling of an economic investment every 10 years, this hypothesized trillion dollar loss 150 years hence would only be "worth" some $33 million today, less than the value of a single power plant. The reason such time is needed at current levels of effort is that providing credible regional details will require the coupling of high resolution atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice models with ecological models that provide accurate fluxes of energy and water between atmosphere and land as well as nutrient cycling and chemical transformations that account for trace greenhouse gas buildup over time.
Schware, Climate Change and Society, Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1981).
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Whether the uncertainties are large enough to suggest delaying policy responses is not a scientific question per se, but a value judgment. Of course, in the short term new research results may temporarily increase uncertainty, but with major efforts such as the proposed Global Change program, accelerated progress will be more likely (2) . Furthermore, considerable methane is trapped below frozen sediments as clathrates in tundra and off continental shelves. A sustained global increase of more than 2deg.C above present would be unprecedented in the era of human civilization.
If the oceans are out of equilibrium with the atmosphere, then specific regional forecasts like that of Fig.
However, increases in the efficiency of irrigation management and technological improvements remain achievable, and would help substantially to mitigate potential negative effects. In addition, more energy efficient factories mean reduced energy costs for manufacturing and thus greater long-term product competitiveness against foreign producers (11, 12a). Ledbetter, Energy Efficiency: A New Agenda (The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington, DC, 1988). However, the uncertainties in these values are at least a few degrees Celsius in Earth's temperature or a factor of 2 in CO2 content; see S.
Schneider [Global Warming (Sierra Club Books, San Francisco, in press)] for a discussion of why the cooling scenario is improbable.
Of course, such a change would require that the calving rate in Antarctica does not increase.
In contrast, elavating beaches, houses, land, and roadways by the year 2100 would cost $50 billion to $75 billion (cumulative capital costs in 1985 dollars) [(57), chap. At a minimum, one robust conclusion could be drawn: climate changes of the magnitudes projected in most GCM results for the middle to the late part of the next century certainly will cause major redistribution of cropping zones and farming practiccs. Although an 8-m rise now seems a low probability, the discounting example remains instructive.
A dedicated effort to accelerate thc rate of progress could conceivably speed up the establishment of a consensus on regional issues, but at best 10 years or so will be necessary even with a dramatic effort. Therefore, in this article I discuss briefly many of the scientific questions surrounding the greenhouse effect debate.
Moreover, the 1980s appear to be the warmest decade on record; 1981,1987, and 1988 were the warmest years on these records (5,6). At the maximum of the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago, CO2 levels were roughly 25% lower than pre industrial values.
If climate were to change much more rapidly than this, then the forests would likely not be in equilibrium with the climate; that is, they could not keep up with the fast change and would go through a period of transient adjustment in which many hard-to-predict changes in species distribution, productivity, and CO2 absorptive capacity would likely occur (21). These clathrates could release vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere if substantial Arctic warming were to take place (17, 25). 5 will not have much credibility until fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models are tested and applied (38). Drying in the West could also markedly increase the incidence of wildfires, which in turn could act as agents of ecological change as climate changes.
However, other authors have argued that societies could cost effectively limit CO2 emissions as part of a conscious strategy to stabilize climate by major policy initiatives to increase energy end use and production efficiency; for example, application of the Edmonds and Reilly economic model to the energy future of China was attempted by W.
The same would have to apply for the melting and calving in Greenland, an ice sheet which, unlike Antarctica, has substantial melting at lower altitudes and low-latitude flanks. However, such efforts would clearly put future decision making on a firmer factual basis and help to make adaptation strategies more effective sooner.
Clearly, one hot year can no more prove that the greenhouse effect has been detected in the record any more than a few cold ones could disprove it. The data also reveal a close correspondence between the inferred temperature at Antarctica and the measured CO2 concentration from gas bubbles trapped in ancient ice (15). Already the ice core data have shown that not only has CO2 tracked temperature closely for the past 150,000 years, but so has methane, and methane is a significant trace greenhouse gas which is some 20 to 30 times more effective per molecule at absorbing infrared radiation than CO2. The development of such models is a formidable scientific and computational task and is still not very advanced. The 1990s, should they see a continuation of the sharp warming trend of the 1980s, will undoubtedly lead many more scientists to predict confidently that the increase in trace greenhouse gases has caused direct and clearly detectable climatic change.
However, whether the CO2 level was a response to or caused the temperature changes is debated: CO2 may have simply served as an amplifier or positive feedback mechanism for climate change--that is, less CO2, colder temperatures. Despite these uncertainties, many workers have projected that CO2 concentrations will reach 600 ppm sometime between 2030 and 2080 and that some of the other trace greenhouse gases will continue to rise at even faster rates. Chandler (Climatic Change 13, 241 (1988) which led to a debate over the appropriateness and applicability of that model to both supply and demand projections; B.
A rise of sea level seems highly probable, whereas disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or snow accumulation in each Antarcica are much more speculative, and such changes will in any case, occur more slowly in response to climate change.
This uncertainty arises because the specific biogeophysical mechanisms that cause CO2 to change in step with the climate are not yet elucidated (16).
Sea level rise only exacerbates the likelihood of catastrophic storm surges especially if warming increases hurricane intensity; K.
Methane concentrations in bubbles in ice cores also show a similar close relation with climate during the past 150,000 years (17). Erickson (personal communication) has suggested that CO2 may have been preferentially taken up by the oceans during the glacial age because of altered wind patterns [which he inferred from J. 43,1726(1986)], which would have encouraged the uptake of CO2 in regions of undersaturation in the oceans.
32, 2033 (1975)], who treat the feedbacks in the contest of simple energy balance climate models. Other suggestions for the cause of the correlation bertween CO2 and temperature on geologic time scales involves alterations to terrestrial biota; L. Takahashi, Eds., Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, Geophysical Monograph 29 (American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1984). Klinger [thesis, University of Colorado, Boulder (1988)] suggests that bogs with vast deposits of dead organic matter expanded during glacial times, storing much carbon as dead organic matter on land; later, during climatic warming and the retreat of ice, this dead organic matter was then able to reoxidize and cause CO2 buildup.
Brocker, Eds., The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric CO2 Natural Variations Archean to Present (American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1985), pp.



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