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Oil and natural gas import reliance of major economies projected to change rapidly - Today in Energy - U.S. Petroleum & Other LiquidsCrude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural GasExploration and reserves, storage, imports and exports, production, prices, sales. ElectricitySales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions.
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Conversely, other major economies are likely to become increasingly reliant on imported liquid fuels and natural gas.
While the discussion above focuses on economies that are net importers of both oil and natural gas, many economies are net exporters of one or both of these fuels, as shown in the quadrant diagram below. First up is the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which highlights a couple of key trends through some simple graphics.
Yes, the most obvious observation is that the OECD (the developed nations) appear to be lagging the most in terms of economic growth. The second chart from the IMF report underscores how commodity prices not only trend with industrial and manufacturing activity, but also with equities. Th IEA released the Clean Energy Progress Report for 2013 this week, which is a whopping 154 pages long. This reliance on fossil fuels, and specifically coal, is reflected most clearly through the shift in global industrial energy consumption over the past decade.

Next up we visit the EIA and its Annual Energy Outlook, which is being released on a staggered basis.
Global production of biofuels, coal-to-liquid, and gas-to-liquid fuels totaled 2.1 million barrels a day in 2011, making up 2% of the total of all liquid fuels.
But these numbers are tiny compared to total global consumption of petroleum and other liquids. However, by 2040 this is expected to have shifted to 65 million barrels a day for the non-OECD, compared to a minorly minor rise in the OECD to 47 million barrels. Matt Smith spent his twenties working in investment management in London, before swapping his bowler hat for a banjo and moving to Louisville, KY. Energy Information Administration, 2013 International Energy Outlook (IEO) and 2014 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Early Release for U.S. While this analysis focuses on the mid-term 2020 timeframe, IEO projections extend to 2040.
China, India, and OECD Europe will each import at least 65% of their oil and 35% of their natural gas by 2020—becoming more like Japan, which relies on imports for more than 95% of its oil and gas consumption.
In China and India, oil demand growth from emergent middle classes will likely outpace domestic production, while OECD Europe will likely become more import reliant as a result of declining oil production in the North Sea. As noted in the 2013 IEO, China will experience the largest absolute growth in liquid fuels consumption, growing by about 46% by 2020 and doubling by 2040 from 2010 levels, as it moves from an industrial manufacturing economy to a more service-oriented economy with greater automobile saturation.
EIA expects India to have the fastest growth rate in liquid fuels consumption from 2010 to 2020 (3.0% per year) and the second-largest absolute growth (behind China), primarily driven by diesel fuels used in transportation, irrigation, manufacturing, and electricity generation. EIA expects demand for oil products in OECD Europe to plateau as most countries will see their population remain flat. Economies in the Middle East (most of which are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), Russia, Africa, and Canada are net exporters of both oil and natural gas (bottom left in graph).
OECD Latin America (top left, consisting of Mexico and Chile) is an overall oil exporter but relies on imported natural gas (primarily from U.S.
While a country can only import up to 100% of consumption, there is no limit to the extent exports can exceed consumption.
Asia Pacific consumption has grown by 62% in 13 years and is the global driver of increasing consumption. Note China's big increase in consumption sinec 2001 and it's slowdown in 1997 after the Asian financial crisis - China is the global "driver". This first one is economic growth illustrated through painting by numbers – the darker the blue, the stronger the growth.

Iran’s problems are due to sanctions, Sudan due to its border war with South Sudan, and Venezuela due to underinvestment in its oil industry.
Something to consider as we see equities and commodities diverging of late…one of them has to be wrong. Here are two charts plucked from the depths of it, with the first illustrating how coal-fired power generation will continue to be a dominant force this decade – a sentiment echoed in other IEA reports. Demand in the OECD will continue to be driven at the margin by price, while non-OECD demand will be driven by economic growth. When he is not reading, writing (or dreaming) about financial markets, he can be found enthusing about music, red wine, spicy food, or his family. Chart recreated based on a Bloomberg New Energy Finance graphic using International Energy Agency data. China will also experience the largest growth in natural gas demand because the government is promoting gas as a preferred fuel to help alleviate air pollution. Oil output from the North Sea, the largest source of European production and the location of the Brent International price benchmark, reached its peak production level in 1996, and EIA expects an average annual decline of 2.9% from 2010 to 2020. The Middle East, Russia, and Africa all export more than 2.4 times their domestic oil consumption. Also notice that Russia has decreased after heavy industry closed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1980s. EIA projects overall natural gas production to decline about 2.6% annually from 2010 to 2020 before returning to 2010 levels in 2040. Brazil will also join this group in the near future when it ramps up production in its offshore oil fields. Europe has declined - driven by stable Western European consumption along with the decline of eastern European and Russia heavy industry. The USA has grown slightly, but less than trend GDP growth of some 3% per annum - this suggest conservation and less reliance of energy intensive industry. India's consumption has doubled in the last ten year - and is expected to keep growing like China at high rates for the foreseeable future. Australia's natural gas export market is projected to increase markedly as planned LNG export terminals come on line.

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