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If this estimate is considered then the operating profits from PC operations imply that Apple generates more profit than all the top 5 PC vendors combined. The real problem for the PC vendors is not that they have such low margins–they’ve had low margins for decades.
So yes, you could hardly sell fewer Win8 devices by having more choices, but it wouldn’t change the basic story that the “PC” market is delivering less value to customers who no longer need new gear for those jobs, and are diverting spending to new applications with “Post PC” products — a larger number of Microsoft mobile device sales would only make it harder to see that change. So yes, “media tablets” are not PCs, but Slates and hybrids based on “full PC OSs” (of which Windows appears to be the sole example) are PCs. Agree with you totally that there aren’t enough non-PC Windows machines to worry about how they should be classified. Another way of looking at it might be that Gartner and IDC are only counting devices of the WinTel dynasty.
Gartner predicts the big growth opportunity is something it calls ultramobiles; which seems to be MacBook Air, hybrid tablet PCs in the Ultrabook class with touchscreens.
It certainly makes the PC drop-off look a lot less severe if you toss in another what… 40 million?
But as somebody who’s been a laptop user for a decade, and watches my wife mostly thriving with an iPad, I note that they serve very different purposes. If Microsoft wants its Slate to get traction, they’ll need to create tools that are optimal first for convenient, low-cost, lightweight tablet functions, and forget about carrying all the legacy baggage in the effort to leverage their supremacy on the desktop. So I think tablets will keep their separate identification despite hybrids and despite Microsoft’s best efforts to claim “no compromises” in a single OS. You can assert that people WANT touchscreens all you like, just like MS has done for the past year.
Touchscreens at $300 — several times the cost if they were a high-volume feature — is a warning that there isn’t really active competition for them. I sure wish we had better corporate-vs-individual data but methinks most corporate purchases are based on similar job functions as existed a year or two ago. This chicken-and-egg might cure with time, or inhouse developers might just find the iPad the cheaper, easier and more robust solution for job functions that require high mobility. I doubt that any of these companies could put out a good high end machine and get any margin at all. By avoiding commoditization, Apple has been able to grab almost all of the high end market, thus giving them the volume to maintain a decent (though not great) margin.
I understand that basic microeconomic theory says that if these margins were low, opportunity cost of doing computers instead of only iPhones would made Apple to build only the latter. When you poor most of your resources into building the least expensive machines that you can, and retain only a pittance of profit, it is very difficult to move upscale.
Bundle that with brand perception, and Apple is most likely to continue to draw the oxygen out of the traditional PC market. When you have $140,000,000,000 sitting around earning less than 1%, the opportunity cost is relative to THAT. My only quibble with this is that mgt bandwidth is also a resource and more scarce at Apple than capital. Agree Dell’s site has grown to be a mess, but if you are patient and do some research, you can usually find good values.
It is interesting how Apple is sucking the profit out of this sector too, but the ecosystem question is more interesting.
They are still shipping a TON of Windows licenses for ATMs, power plants, airport check-in terminals and the like. Your characterization that “Apple is sucking the profit out of this sector” is essentially the opposite of Horace’s characterization that profits are a measure of the value that the company creates for users who buy those machines as a matter of choice.
Apple is taking most of the profit out of the share of revenue that goes to the mfrs + OS vendors.
The way that Apple is sucking out the profit is they are selling almost all high-end (high-profit) PC’s since they shipped the Intel Mac. There are only a limited number of users who will pay $1000+ for a PC and Apple has almost all of them. For me, not so much offensive as off-topic, repeating a tired old battle that never changes and so never gives us insight into how it will matter more or less in the future.

Which I guess is at least annoying to wade through on a site dedicated to “collaborative and peer reviewed analysis” of the future of mobile computing. I suppose the candor is appreciated, though not sure how a discussion of the Mac (and how it operates with other devices) is off topic? Yes, civility is important and no, I was not saying this was the sort of dreck one can easily find at TheVerge or similar. I do not presume to ask you to drop this, but please know that I will not be responding further to you on this line.
Getting back on the subject, it seems to me that it needs to be remembered that a Mac IS a PC anymore. I think many will be lead astray by ideas that people in emerging markets are not as wealthy, and therefore will not be able to afford Macs. You’re using “full-featured” as a propaganda word, a troll word, because like I said, Windows 8 has fewer tablet PC features than iOS, and Windows 8 also has fewer tablet PC apps, and the Windows tablet apps cover fewer app categories. Also, Apple’s iOSing of the OS X ecosystem (not the UI, the App Store et al) shows that they learned its own lesson. But I do want to have only one device at a time: If I’m in my desktop, why should I have to use my iPad? Go ahead and acknowledge that Microsoft is the king of the hill in PC profits, but you cannot distribute their earnings among their customers for the sake of analysis. The biggest reason Apple’s profitability is so high is that their ASP blows away the rest of the field.
Joe, an Apple customer has to “buy” OSX similarly to how an HP customer has to buy Windows. My intent on pushing the same line is not to diminish the Apple value-add but rather to understand it better. Yes, Apple “just knows” about their future in post-PC but there are many years until the Mac is irrelevant and as the exchange between obarthelemy and Chaka10 highlight, it has a lot to do with the iOS value proposition. It will also be interesting to see how the Wintel OEM industry learns to exist in a world where their main product shifts from the high volume cars to lower volume trucks of the Steve Jobs metaphor. Somebody who is much more expert on the implications of the phrase “value stack” should add their thoughts here.
But I’ll note that in Econ101 land, a commodity is a product that has no excess profit. Also in Econ101, a monopolist maximizes profits by setting a higher price than the cost of producing one more unit (which is close to zero for software).
Would you consider iOS penetration into the large scale enterprise a potential leverage for greater adoption of the Mac in the enterprise? The barrier is that there are only a few hundred firms using these types of services — they are enormously complex in their own right (limiting the number of users) and the workflow necessarily interacts with many similar products. The difference is, as pointed out in other places, the rest of the parts are largely bought from the same vendors.
Problem seems to be the focus on margin rather than cash flow, and a graph on Mac vs Windows rather than Mac vs a bunch of PC makers shows that making hardware is low margin business.
So by your suggestion if a PC vendor licenses Linux (or Android, as many do in their mobile divisions) and since they would pay nothing for software then we would have division by zero in our calculations. Serving all Windows Mobile devices, Xilisoft Windows Mobile Ringtone Maker owns great capability of making MP3 ringtone from other media files as your Windows Mobile device ringtone. The market data has been showing unit shipment declining for some time with the latest quarter having perhaps the steepest decline for two decades. This is not as good as its performance in the phone market, where Apple has about 72%, but it’s not bad.
I’m not claiming either that the methodology is sensible for any purposes other than selling studies to PC manufacturers, or that it is clearly-delineated. But mostly, it seems it was just Gartner’s way of avoiding the confrontation that the latest data made inevitable. Yeah, maybe Gartner will shut up about “media tablets” except for the very low-cost or explicit home-kiosk content machines such as the Kindle Fire.
Touch-based PCs seem to be adding $300 to the overall price, not the $100 originally speculated. There just AREN’T mature corporate verticals where good touchscreen apps have been built yet, and nobody can make the case that Office — essentially the only significant touch-ready app — is better on a tablet than a conventional notebook.

I’m pretty sure Apple is very aware of this, and manages a balanced mix of what to build maximizing return. And it may get even better if Apple turns it into a tablet that runs Final Cut and Logic and Xcode and Quartz Composer and Aperture and AutoCAD. The other PC makers have been relegated to $400 PC’s that are being replaced wholesale by iPads.
Dropbox, my web server, email attachment, and yes, just an exposed file system that any number of iOS apps can provide. I just started looking at the market this way and it may not be something that I can do on an ongoing basis. Somebody else can make a virtually identical object and has almost identical costs, so if there WERE 2? of profits, the new competitor could sell for 1? less and siphon off all the first company’s business. Macs are valuable to these structures because they benefit from simplified support; Apple uses high quality design at least in part as a way to signal reliability and support.
Each night, updates to customer, vendor analytics and 3rd-party data is loaded into a SQL database, and analyses are run in batch. Think Fitzcarraldo as a metaphor for the likely outcome of moving a huge object, just to get back where you started but with damaged goods, huge expense and dispiriting failure. Merge, clip, split, add video effects, watermark, subtitle, soundtrack, etc to better enjoy it. Apple is not immune to a gradual erosion of Mac volumes, but they have positioned themselves for growth with devices and content commerce and services.
If the Mac didn’t exist yet, Apple would be planning it, designing a workstation based on the iPad. All the other options I found, including at the Apple store, were priced 3000+ (without monitor).
Creating the devices keeps them ahead and when they are well managed, that enables them to suck out most of the profit because the people who need to be ahead (Hollywood and Silicon Valley types) are willing to pay more for that. Typically, people have terabytes of music, terabytes of video, gigabytes of photos and books.
Maybe someone has 20 GB to play with and doesn’t want to spend time every day rotating all his media libraries through his mobile device. If you add back just Microsoft’s profit to the PC manufacturers, it changes the picture significantly. It is you who is making a giant technical mistake, not Horace making a business analysis mistake. Smart folders and dynamic play lists are there in iTunes to rotate your media in the background.
Thinking that the Mac is not needed is like saying “now that everybody has Web browsers, do we still need Web servers?” iOS and all its apps are built on Macs. There are probably a few dozen explicit links to Windows and Office and the downstream workflow is ALSO only provided in Windows. The 800 lb difference is that one pays cost for their OS and the other pays twice as much as cost. All of the software bits can be seen with your eye if you put the hardware under a microscope.
You’re not expected to have a Mac and no iPad, same as you are not expected to have a Web server and no Web browser. You can’t buy that kind of large scale influence, and Apple gets it for less than free because they get paid to provide it.
Now, start to make ringtone for your device and hear the ringtone you love when there's a call!
It can be unplayed podcasts, unread books, or the one you were in the middle of on another device.

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