30.10.2013

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Many people have heard about the fiscal cliff and the devastating toll it will take on our economy if we in fact go over the edge.
After the 2012 presidential election, I’ve had a tendency not to listen to the news sites.
When it came to the fiscal cliff, naturally I tried to use the same methodology by glimpsing into the crystal ball of Intrade. The business channels and news sources could be blowing everything out of proportion for the sake of ratings. The most relevant fiscal cliff bet that I could locate on Intrade is whether or not the US Economy will go into a recession in 2013. Because of tax adjustments, people will make about 4% less, business will lay thousands of people off, consumers will stop spending money, home short sales will cease to exist, etc. When a Republican speaks and blames the other party for not negotiating, the market proceeds to tank. Visiting the site, I wasn’t able to find any mention of the fiscal cliff on the home page.


According to recent polls, 60% of those asked have no idea what the fiscal cliff is or what will happen if the government doesn’t agree on a deal by the end of the year. Many economists believe that our economy will produce negative GDP levels if we do in fact plummet off of the cliff and remain so for an extended period of time. The economy is not growing as fast as we would all like, but it is recovering none the less. They often start as a single photo of one person; parts of the photo are then extracted or manipulated in Photoshop and made popular by Internet communities like Reddit. Polls predicted that Obama would barely squeeze out a victory in the battleground states, edging past Romney by fractions of a point. Based on the current percentages, most betters do not think that we will go into a recession. Unemployment is slowly dropping, housing is on the road to recovery and most major events (election, fiscal cliff) are behind us. They allowed Icahn and Ackman to argue with each other for well over ten minutes on the topic of Herblife.


Because of tax increases and the expiration of certain tax breaks, the average American will bring in about 3.8% less in 2013. Just like you said, our economy continues to survive and everything else rotates in and out.
Something completely unknown and unexpected could bring our economy down again, but there’s no point trying to predict those type of events. For the last several weeks, the market has been a victim of politics, regardless of which side is taken. As I clicked on the last possible category, I realized that there is no mention of the fiscal cliff – the most important factor facing our economy at present.



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