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The 2nd half of December might turn colder as the SOI continues to drop and the EPO possibly goes negative a long with the PNA. We need that SE ridge to weaken or move away and a visit from the polar vortex and then we'll be in business. Buffalo on track to set a record for latest measurable snowfall and Philly on track to set latest date to have first 32 degree temperature. 12" of new snow at Sugarloaf Mountain ski resort with amazing conditions per my friend who lives up there. From the info I have seen it looks like the last half of January may be our most wintry period this season and the storm tracks this weekend certainly indicate a more active pattern with some potential.
I cant imagine getting 4 feet of snow from the fantasy storm, imagine 46 inches for me from one storm haha, and talk about a big variance, Westchester gets 15 inches haha, funniest map I ever saw and for sure that will never materialize.
Considering the uncertainty of the solution here, I'm just going to go with this ambiguous title which reflects the uncertainty. Keeping my fingers crossed this isn't nearly as bad as it has the potential to be with high winds, torrential rains, water logged ground and fully leafed trees. 12z Canadian still running but looks like entire area is in line for 10"+ qpf, per the 12z run.
Latest recon on Joaquin showing rapid intensification with MSLP as low as 990mb with 55kt surface wind gusts. There are cases when a hurricane is so intense that its own circulation trumps other steering factors, especially when upper airflows are weak.
Looks like this weekend into next week will bring our first real shot of cold like temperatures.
Yet the hour by hour right below it has 0% chance through 6 pm, at which point it begins to increase slowly, peaking at 47% chance by 2 am.
Just light rain and drizzle since 10am, radar not impressive at all considering the forecast of 1"+.


Once February comes around the longer term pattern appears to go back more toward a typical el nino where the northern states and northeast are mild.(relatively speaking). But the models hinting at and picking up storms at various points is encouraging as there's the possibility of one of these eventually verifying.
I remember storm after storm where western and south central CT were in the bull's eye. I got so spoiled in December I didn't realize this month has been that much above normal.
Same reason as to why the GFS is east, although that model usually has a bias to do that this many hours out.
Its position in the southeast US and counter-clockwise circulation will make the steering winds flow in a south to north or southeast to northwest direction and this, coupled with high blocking in southeast Canada, should make Joaquin track to the northwest and eventual landfall. However, that won't be the case here with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane, if it even makes it there.
Like Robbs and I have been saying, the STJ is going to start cranking as we head deeper into December thanks to the strong el nino.
I read a story last night there was a transformer that blew out near Middletown-Goshen area and the Western half of the county was without power for quite some time last night.
There was the two footer in Monmouth County while northern NJ didn't see a single snowflake. How about the two footer in Monmouth County while northern NJ didn't see a single snowflake. The snow gradients were unbelievable and very well forecast so while you were getting multiple feet, just west of you it dropped off dramatically. The question is whether that energy tug is stronger than the pull west by the upper level low in the southeast US. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the upper level low winning the tug of war and Joaquin goes west and makes landfall.


Is it a weaker-offshore, stronger-pulled by the front solution like I think it was with Sandy??? The shear would have to subside to allow Joaquin to reach hurricane force, although it has managed to intensify today even with shear.
With this storm ( if the models keep it ), there will not be any snow with it because there is simply no cold air around thanks to the +NAO.
The storm that gave you 34" topped out with some 4 foot totals just to your east, and there were some spots on north central LI that also had three feet. Having said that, the models are having difficulty picking up on all the factors at play and, hence, there is a very wide range of track solutions on the table.
I had a two footer elevation snowstorm some years ago and a 5 minute drive from here had bare ground. I remember there was one run of the Nam which had my area in the bull's eye and showed four foot totals. Or is the strength of Joaquin a non-issue in terms of its chances of getting pulled to the East Coast by the frontal system? I've come to realize how much variance there is snowfall amounts over relatively short distances. Most thought the Nam was on drugs but then those 4 foot totals happened and exactly where the subsequent Nam runs showed it, about 50-60 miles to my east. That storm had some tropical moisture interacting with it and so the precip numbers were excessive.



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