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admin | How To Get Even With Your Ex | 21.06.2015
On the left, too, Senator Bernie Sanders has built his own movement with millions of voters, and $210 million in fund-raising, by using online tools as simple as email to seek support. Live from the Journamalists Self-Made Gehenna: Yes, reading Dana Milbank of the Washington Post is like drinking bilge water.
In physics, where we have some understanding of underlying reality, it is often (not always) legitimate to extrapolate a curve beyond measurements because we have good reasons to believe certain properties about the extrapolating function.
Suppose I take data points from the left hand side of the Laffer curve and fit a nice little line through them (or hell, let's add some more functions --- a line plus a log, or a line plus a square root).
The question he tried to dismiss, but couldna€™t help reveling in: what about that Trump taco bowl tweet? For Americans opposed to Trump, ita€™s tempting to believe that his base is a shrinking part of America; that these are the death throes of racial reaction.
Back in 1978, when I first came to AEI, Tom Mann and I set up a series of small, off the record dinners with some new members of Congress.
For the Republicans, in the aftermath of this election wea€™re gonna see a pitched battle across these different boundaries a€” the anti-leadership populist base, the radical conservatives, and the establishment leadership.
Reince has already deleted that tweet, but Ia€™m sure its replacement will be just as risible. Historically, even the 'anti-amnesty' politicians who opposed comprehensive immigration reform stressed that immigrants were welcome in America as long as they came (and stayed) legally. If you had told me a decade ago that this would happen--that a decade that saw the number of undocumented immigrants fall would nevertheless see the Republican machine fail to convince any of their voters that immigrants who play by the rules are an asset--I would simply not have believed you. From a political-economy perspective there was never much reason for native-born whites to fear immigrants from Mexico and elsewhere. Contrary to popular conception, Cruza€™s quixotic mission wasna€™t driven by ideological fervor but by ruthless ambition.
And how much would you regard that curve as cause-and-effect, with "Doing Business" rating the cause and GDP per capita level the effect, and how much as effect-and-cause or both being results of other factors? Reading Patrick Healy and Jonathan Martin of the _New York Times_ is like drinking bilge water. Reading Patrick Healy and Jonathan Martin of the New York Times is like drinking bilge water.
Coyote thinks about the Road Runner, but really: TV is where campaigns are made (along with, yes, online donation soliciting, but that's been true for years).
That social reality is forced (by god?) to match a particular function, which happens to be an exponential plus a whole lotta noise?
It might be justifiable IF you have some sort of (validated) theory of what's generating the distribution of data. Is Cochrane then happy with my confident prediction that if we tax at a rate of 90% we can raise massive amounts of revenue and, hell, let's ramp up the tax rate to 150% and raise revenue like there is no tomorrow?
He has a long record that needs to be examined and I think ita€™s important for us to take seriously the statements hea€™s made in the past. Or at least, hea€™s governed in that mode, with an agenda that sits safely in the mainstream.
This isna€™t the first time in our history that whites have worried about losing their pre-eminent status. From indulging anti-Obama conspiracy theories to attacking him as an enemy of the United States, conservatives chose to nurture resentment and anxiety and distill it into something potent.
Over many years, they've adopted strategies that have trivialized and delegitimized government. First, there's an anti-establishment, anti-leadership populist base that is driven by identity politics and culture and a visceral reaction against leaders of all sorts. Ita€™s irresponsible to reflect on Trumpa€™s candidacy without considering the unprecedented way in which he dominated media coverage from the beginning of his campaign, which was worth the equivalent of $2 billion in paid advertising. And if it doesna€™t--democracy is never a guarantee that the voters will get it right according anyonea€™s judgement.

Rather than attacking Trump as a liar, Cruz decided to instead pretend they were best friends.
Trump and Marco Rubio began to hammer home the accusation that it's in fact Cruz who has an unusual propensity to lie. I think you can't do much better than to look at this 2015 poll from the Public Religion Research Institute, which reveals a huge partisan gap on a pretty basic question--is racism against white people a bigger problem than racism against racial minority groups? If you had told me two decades ago that the Democratic Party which so feared competition from the workers of Mexico would embrace those same workers as an asset to the country if only they moved here, I would simply not have believed you.
There has to be an interest at stake--a better job gained, or a promise of eternal reward embraced--in order to actually push the train down the idea-selected track. And who is the Hugh Miller--Harvard Law School, Lafayette Escadrille, Croix de Guerre--to drive the policy-choice and policy-drafting machine forward? In 2013, the freshman senator rallied the conservative grassroots around a plan to build his email list, disguised as a strategy for repealing the Affordable Care Act. The senator was willing to throw his party and government into chaos for the sake of attaining greater fame and power. If the Internet could elect a president all by itself, we'd have had a President Paul by now, or be on our way to electing one this year. This sort of thing can work (under limited circumstances) in finance, or even in macroeconomics. I just want to emphasize the degree to which we are in serious times and this is a serious job. These somewhat better-off Americans have seen their friends and family fall into dependency, whether to drugs or alcohol or welfare. You can draw a direct line to the rise of Trump from the racial hysteria of talk radio--where figures like Rush Limbaugh, a Trump booster, warned that Obama would turn the world upside down. As a brand new member of the House, he had a full-blown theory of how Republicans could break out of their seemingly permanent minority, and build a majority. Throughout this campaign, Donald Trump has demonstrated that hea€™s too divisive and lacks the temperament to lead our nation and the free world. Any time a demagogic candidate wins a nomination, it suggests a potential failure of political institutions, including (but not limited to) the media. Therea€™s no institutional framework that can guarantee substantively good results, not least because politics largely involves disputes over what substantively good results are.
Bush, Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to think that immigrants strengthened America. If you had told me three decades ago that affirmative action had passed its high-water mark with the Carter administration, but that in a generation two-thirds of Republicans would think that discrimination against whites would be as big a problem as discrimination against African-Americans, I would simply not have believed you.
But some gutsy guy from Chiapas who wants to better himself, start a business, and is not too picky about obeying every rule and regulation of a government when the government's regulations tend to keep them down? Cruz assured the tea-party faithful that Republicans could force Barack Obama to rip up his signature legislative achievement by threatening to shut down the federal government--a notion roughly as plausible as Mexican taxpayers funding Trumpa€™s border-long monument to American xenophobia. But Cochrane has no quantitative theory of the casual relationship between law and GDP beyond this data summary, and so there is UTTERLY no reason to perform his extrapolation.
If everyone else had been behaving as rationally as these two, I suspect we would not be now looking forward to another six months of Donald Trump speeches. They are both sympathetic to this plighta€”which is why Trumpa€™s call for more help for veterans and seniors resonates with thema€”but also frustrated and angry. Trumpism will enter the firmament of modern politics, a powerful current that will shape the future of the Republican Party, and the Democratic one too. This is something Ia€™ve written about a lot from the earliest points of the campaign, so wea€™ll move along for now.
Then in March, Trump coined the perfect rebuttal to 'TrustTED' a€” by simply deeming him 'Lyin' Ted.' It was simple, juvenile name-calling.
Not all of the white voters who have switched parties are motivated by anti-Latino sentiment.

They ought to have been the favored poster boys of the Republican Party as it imagines itself. They've delegitimized President Obama, but they've failed to succeed with any of the promises they've made to their rank and file voters, or Tea Party adherents. He delegitimized the Congress and the Democratic leadership, convincing people that they were arrogant and corrupt and that the process was so bad that anything would be better than this. Hillary Clinton has proven that she has the strength to keep us safe in an uncertain world and a lifelong record of fighting to break down the barriers--economic and social--that hold working families back.
In the background of the picture, under a purplish tumbled sky flecked with sinister white like driven foam, flanking Willie, one on each side, were two figures, Sadie Burke and a tallish, stooped, slow-spoken man with a sad, tanned face and what they call the eyes of a dreamer. How many of those colleagues found themselves in debates like the one Cruz suffered in Marion? He attacked John McCain and Megyn Kelly and Muslims, all of which happened or was endlessly discussed on TV.
But whenever he leaves, hea€™ll do it as a new icon of a familiar movement in American life. And then when I began to look at who the outsider and insurgent candidates were, it just seemed to me that Trump and Cruz were the two most likely to emerge.
While Donald Trump seeks to bully and divide Americans, Hillary Clinton will unite us to create an economy that works for everyone. But all along, this has been part of a deliberate strategy from Cruz to position himself for the presidency. He so reveled in calling every other Republican a liar a€” and now has been tagged as the ultimate liar himself.
The man was Hugh Miller, Harvard Law School, Lafayette Escadrille, Croix de Guerre, clean hands, pure heart, and no political past. Accusing people of racism is the fastest way to shut down a conversation and ensure implacable opposition.
How many tried to explain the nature of divided government to earnest constituents, only to be told, a€?You are the problem, politiciana€™? He went out and recruited the candidates, and gave them the language to use about how disgusting and despicable and horrible and immoral and unpatriotic the Democrats were. Cruz realized that many GOP voters now deeply distrusted their party elites, and he was only too happy to cater to their preconceptions.
After that, he thought, he'd be perfectly positioned to pick up 'the lion's share' of the billionaire's supporters. He was a fellow who had sat still for years, and then somebody (Willie Stark) handed him a baseball bat and he felt his fingers close on the tape. It's ridiculous when Official Washington gets up on their high horses about decorum, especially when most of them don't exactly have the Queen's manners themselves.
He knew that aggressively attacking GOP leaders would both distance himself from the establishment and help brand himself as trustworthy in his own right a€” all the better to make him the nominee. So when Cruz showered praise upon Trump, it was for completely self-serving reasons a€” he was being exactly the disingenuous politician he constantly accuses his rivals of being. It might be justifiable IF you have some sort of (validated) theory of what's generating the distribution of data. This sort of thing can work (under *limited* circumstances) in finance, or even in macroeconomics. Over many years, they've adopted strategies that have trivialized and delegitimized government. I think when Republicans had their stunning victory in 2010, Cantor et al thought they could now co-opt these people.

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