New york city 2014 snow storm,hornby train sets 1980,thomas and friends spin and fix train set,how to train your dragon dagur - Review

admin 12.06.2014

I got up early as the sun came up to photograph the Upper West Side as it woke up from the much-hyped Hercules. The Northeast was under attack from brutally cold weather today as a winter storm swirled up the coast, creating blizzard conditions on Cape Cod, disrupting government work in Washington and leaving New York City under a foot of snow.Winter storm Janus stretched from Kentucky to New England but hit hardest along the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor between Philadelphia and Boston.
Cape Cod was under a blizzard warning through Wednesday afternoon.Boston and Philadelphia ordered schools closed on Wednesday, following the lead the day before of many districts in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Virginia, West Virginia and Kentucky. Amtrak told passengers on its busiest line, the Northeast Corridor between Washington and Boston, to expect fewer trains.
Nonetheless, overnight temperatures in the single digits were expected in Philadelphia and New York, with wind chills dipping into the negative teens. Police said the storm might have claimed more lives: A preliminary investigation showed wet conditions played a role in a two-vehicle crash that killed two people in Prince George's County, Maryland, and a tractor-trailer that jackknifed on Interstate 81 in Frederick County, Virginia, ran off the highway and hit a tree, killing the driver. A total of three waves of arctic air will blast across the Midwest and Northeast and into next week. Aside from high winds, incoming snow and plummeting temperatures, commuters in the New York area should expect travel delays on the roads out of the city. Governor Andrew Cuomo has issued a snow warning in New York City, with an anticipated three to seven inches of snow to hit the five boroughs. Please note that gratuitous links to your site are viewed as spam and may result in removed comments.
New York City Dads GroupNavigating Fatherhood TogetherNYC Dads Group is part of a national organization dedicated to helping fathers socialize and support one another.
After the weather bogeymen frightened the bejeezus out us all, mom would scurry us down to the Pathmark so we could purchase every last loaf of bread, carton of eggs and gallon of milk we could find. Well, before your fiber-optic digital hoohaas arrived, we had to have these oversized potato mashers screwed onto the roof of our houses. All the children started staying in at night, zombifed by that there 100 channels of tee-vee. So for days we’d hear all this “storm of the century” jabber on the airwaves, and you know what? Forecast accuracy in predicting where a hurricane will go has improved dramatically over the past 20 years, with official NHC track errors for 1 - 5 day Atlantic forecasts improving by more than a factor of two (Figure 1). Schools also were closed on Wednesday in Rhode Island, Connecticut, upstate New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, northern Virginia and the District of Columbia.
Although snow has already started to fall in some areas, forecasts are reporting that an onslaught of a foot or more is expected to hit the city this evening.
Long Island has already been issued a blizzard warning, with some schools in the area taking precautionary measures and closing early. Cuomo has also asked commuters to take public transportation today in order to keep as many cars as possible off the roads.


The storms were blamed for at least 10 deaths in western New York, mostly from exposure and heart attacks, including several people who were shovelling snowReutersLori Weishaar shovels snow from around her car in Buffalo, New York. Why we’d toss the French toast onto the streets so our rear-wheel-drive cars could get some traction. Sometimes they’d magically transmit the most wholesome of entertainment like post-Somers Three’s Company and pre-McGinley Love Boat. These would transmogrify invisible electrostatic streams of Technicolor goodness into a big honkin’ cathode ray tube that was housed in a wooden crate the exact size, shape and weight of one of those Acme safes Road Runner was always dropping on Wile E. They were glued to the front of the tube instead of doing some good ol’ fashioned rabblerousing out, like looting the Crazy Eddie while hopped up on hormones and Pop Rocks.. Not that it could anyway, what with all the chemicals from the Big Mac clamshell containers we tossed in there.
Improving hurricane intensity forecasts, though, has proved to be very difficult--there has been very little improvement in official NHC intensity forecasts over the past 20 years (Figure 2).
However, when New Yorkers woke up the next morning and wiped the sleep from their eyes, they hardly missed a beat thanks to the good men and women working all night removing snow. Federal workers in Washington who got a snow day on Tuesday were getting a two-hour delay on Wednesday. Even more precipitation is predicted to fall overnight, and a high of 17 degrees is being predicted for tomorrow so prepare yourselves and button up. Even if it was tinted smog gray and filled with filthy Three-Card Monte hustlers in Times Square. That bit of “meteorology” and the hair spray fog from Studio 54 punching a hole in the ozone resulted in the adults sitting around all day, warming their hands around a mug of tepid Chock Full o’ Nuts, complaining about how the weathermen had overhyped yet another storm that never materialized. But instead of thanking our lucky stars, we’d just grumble about those nincompoop forecasters who got us riled up for nothing. His work has been featured in Canada’s Globe and Mail, the New York Daily News, The Huffington Post and landfills worldwide.
However, the models used to predict hurricane intensity have steadily improved over the past six years, and this improvement may herald the arrival of significantly improved hurricane intensity forecasts in the coming years. Ah, they don’t oversaturate afternoon programming with genuine cartoon violence like that anymore, Junior.
A good portion of this credit goes to the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), a ten-year project that began in 2009 with the objective of reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 20% over five years (by 2014) and by 50% over ten years (by 2019.) Figure 1. The sticking of the tin foil through the vents in the back of the box to sneak a peek of a partially descrambled Playboy Channel movie.
Over the past 15 years, 1 - 5 day track forecast errors have been reduced by approximately 50%. If we consider the HWRF model alone, its improvement over the five-year period ending in 2014 has been 20% (Figure 3), meeting the HFIP goal of a 20% improvement in hurricane intensity models in a five-year period.


The 2015 numbers may be skewed because of the relatively few number of forecasts made last year, as NHC made forecasts as far out as five days for only four storms, two of which proved difficult to forecast--Danny and Joaquin.
This allowed a few ugly forecasts to have an unrepresentative influence on the yearly stats. Perhaps most encouraging, the HWRF model showed significant progress in 2015 in making the most important intensity forecasts there are--ones of rapid intensification (RI). The model's probability of detection of an RI event increased, and the false alarm rate went down, compared to forecasts from previous years.Figure 3. Intensity forecasts from NOAA's HWRF model for Atlantic tropical cyclones for the 2015 version of the model have shown a 20% improvement, meeting the 5-year improvement goal for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), a ten-year project that began in 2009 with the objective of reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 20% over five years (by 2014). In July of 2016, the HWRF model is scheduled to receive a major upgrade to its code to improve the boundary layer and surface physics and vertical wind structure.
The model will also increase the size of the "zoomed-in" region where its highest-resolution calculations are performed immediately surrounding a hurricane, and HWRF will be connected to a separate hurricane wave model which will allow the two models to interact and improve the forecasts of both models. I look forward to seeing if the HFIP program can meet its goal of a 50% improvement of hurricane intensity forecasts by 2019; I think 2016 will be a crucial test. Even if this goal is not met, HFIP has shown its worth in training a new generation of hurricane scientists. Many of these researchers will be moving into operational weather forecasting in the next few years in support of NOAA's latest modeling effort, the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS).Figure 4.
Skill of computer model intensity forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2015, compared to a "no skill" model called "Decay-SHIFOR5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane intensity forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to maintain its current behavior.) The official NHC intensity forecasts were close in skill to three of their four main intensity models.
These four models were the dynamical Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting (HWRF) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) models, which subdivide the atmosphere into a 3-D grid around the storm and solve the atmospheric equations of fluid flow at each point on the grid, and the statistics-based Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM) and Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (DSHIPS, the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) The GFDL model did poorly in 2015. Note also that NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF) made lousy intensity forecasts relative to climatology and persistence except at 5 days; these models are generally disregarded by NHC when making intensity forecasts. Our first-ever PWS Owner Appreciation Week, running through next Wednesday, May 11, pays tribute to our backyard observer-members.
On Thursday, WU’s Madeline Rae introduced us to GoodGreen House, located in central New York between Binghamton and Ithaca, where Jeff White and Liz Smith use a PWS to keep track of conditions both outside and inside the working greenhouse that also serves as their home. Earlier this year, Madeline spotlighted Koe Kellen, a firefighter in northern Illinois whose PWS helps Koe and his fellow volunteers assess fire risk.There’s still time for you to participate in our PWS giveaway. By taking a quick quiz, you’ll have a shot at winning one of 10 personal weather stations or 500 WU T-shirts.



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