We started the analysis with historical data on 10000 customers, 500 of whom were defaulters, i.e.
In this data, there are 200 customers whose income is not greater than 1.2 times their loan instalment. Because of their high level of automation and the ease of translating decision tree models into SQL for deployment in relational databases the technology has also proven to be easy to integrate with existing IT processes, requiring little pre-processing and cleansing of the data. The one stop resource for Analytics & Big Data: careers, tools, techniques and industry updates! 4-5 Decision Process Not all decision makers are managers, but all managers need to be good decision makers. 4-6 Decision Making and Problem Solving Decision making The process of choosing from among various alternatives. 4-7 Programmed Versus Non-programmed Decisions Programmed decisions Decisions that are reached by following an established or systematic procedure.
4-8 Intuitive Decision Making Emotional attachments that can hurt decision makers: Fastening on unsubstantiated facts and sticking with them. 4-9 Rational Approaches to Decision Making Rational approaches to decision making attempt to evaluate factual information through the use of some type of deductive reasoning. 4-11 The Optimizing Approach: Limitations People have clearly defined criteria, and the relative weights they assign to these criteria are stable. 4-13 Rational Approaches to Decision Making Optimizing Selecting the best possible alternative. 4-16 Conditions for Making Decisions Situation of Certainty The decision maker can calculate the precise outcome for each alternative. 4-17 Conditions for Making Decisions Situation of uncertainty Situation that occurs when a decision maker has very little or no reliable information on which to evaluate the different possible outcomes.
4-19 Timing the Decision The need for a decision must be recognized to time the decision well. 4-25 Making Creative Decisions Several techniques can be used to foster creative decision-making within an organization. 4-26 The Creative Process 1.Preparation – Investigate to fully understand the problem and all relevant issues pertaining to the problem. 4-27 Establishing a Creative Environment Instill trust – eliminate the fear of failure of an idea. 4-30 Gordon Technique Only the group leader knows the exact nature of the real problem under consideration. 4-31 Nominal Group Technique Highly structured technique for solving group tasks; minimizes personal interactions to encourage activity and reduce pressures toward conformity. 4-32 Brainwriting Technique in which a group is presented with a problem situation and members anonymously write down ideas, then exchange papers with others, who build on the ideas and pass them on until all members have participated. 4-34 Model for Creative Decision Making Source: Bruce Meyers, unpublished paper, Western Illinois University, 1987.
4-35 A management information system (MIS) is an information system used by managers to support the day-to-day operational and tactical decision making needs of managers. Making a good decision is hard, but, in the Land of OR, one can embark on a journey to find the right choice.
Children begin with the Guide who has them gather their Options, curious little creatures who represent the answer to the questions we are asking. After a long course through the Canyon of WHY and crossing the stream of IF THEN, we enter the Gully of Others, where final options are selected and decisions can then easily be made. As a lover of rhyme, rhythm and reason, Katie continues to share with others her passion for teaching, creating greater awareness and living a conscious life through these children’s books. Denise Mealy is a former web content provider who stays at home to change diapers and write books. We’ve curated a list of some truly wonderful and entertaining bug books for kids ages 4 to 99. Elizabeth Briggs, author of Future Shock, highlights some of the best non-dystopian YA sci-fi books.
Lauren Wolk is an award-winning poet, artist, and author of the adult novel Those Who Favor Fire. This month’s best selling kids series from The Children’s Book Review’s affiliate store is leveled early reader series retells classic scenes from Star Wars, World of Reading: Star Wars. This month Lady Midnight, by Cassandra Clare, is in our hand-picked list from the Best Selling Young Adult HardCover books listed on The New York Times.
I not only loved all these books, I know I’ll go back and re-read them in the future to study exactly how these skillful writers strike the delicate balance I’m always looking for between laugh-out-loud funny and reach-for-the-Kleenex poignant. Emily Winfield Martin’s delightful book, The Wonderful Things You Will Be, dreams of what children will someday grow to be. Award-winning author Donna Gephart crafts a compelling dual narrative about two remarkable young people: Lily, a transgender girl, and Dunkin, a boy dealing with bipolar disorder. A Curious Tale of the In-Between will appeal to young people who like ghost stories and the supernatural and who have issues of loss and unsolved mysteries in their own lives.
Management styles vary from individual to individual, by institution, and what industry is involved. The major categories of management styles can be divided up into autocratic, paternalistic, and democratic.


The paternalistic management style is closely related to the autocrat; this individual can be dictatorial when needed. The democratic management style allows for direct participation in decision-making by the employees and subordinates.
I was looking for some info on different management styles, i’m glad to find your website as I don’t think my style is working! One kind works on increasing the purity of the resulting nodes while the other works on ensuring maximum statistically significant difference from the parent node. During the data exploration stage of a project decision trees are a quickly and effective way of understanding impact of various variables as well identifying the important variables.
Sometimes trees can help interpret model results that could otherwise be difficult to understand. People act on the basis of a simplified abstraction (influenced by personal perceptions and biases) of the real world.
Satisficing Selecting the first alternative that meets the decision maker’s minimum standard of satisfaction. Approaches for dealing with uncertainty Maximax approach Selecting the alternative whose best possible outcome is the best of all possible outcomes for all alternatives; sometimes called the optimistic or gambling approach to decision making. Some ways managers react: The manager that quickly decides runs the risk of making bad decisions.
It has an impact on: Selection of performance measures Alternatives Choice criteria in the decision process Ethics are a set of moral principles or values that govern behavior.
Implies an evaluative framework consisting of ethical considerations influencing behavior toward actions and decisions that are judged to be right and away from those judged to be wrong. Creativity Coming up with an idea that is new, original, useful, or satisfying to its creator or to someone else. Led by the Guide, children follow mythical creatures rendered in beautiful, southwest-style illustrations. The clever directions spelled out throughout about this important life skill will make it a valuable teaching tool for parents.
Be sure to check out the Travel Guide provided for parents to talk about the journey with their young readers; and be sure to get to know the characters in this Character Guide. With a zest for the fantastic and an ability to create worlds no one has ever seen, he brings a new life to children’s books. Her days are filled with Word documents, books and sloppy kisses (from dogs and baby alike).
If she could have dinner with any author, dead or alive, it would be a toss up between J.K. For example, the music or entertainment industry, with its glitzy and glamorous lifestyles, may differ markedly from a marketing and advertising agency! There could also be sub-categories or even further grouping by type, such as two main management styles of either autocratic or permissive. The paternalistic manager may pay more attention to the social needs and morale of workers. Management flow charts can distinguish between democratic and permissive management styles. In the end we identified 3 smaller groups of population with default rates of 50% or above. Most algorithms look at all possible split options and calculate the most effective option using one of the many methods commonly used. A real life business ituation could involve thousands of variables and decision trees are a quick and easy way of reducing this to a more manageable number. For example, the target market for Yamaha motorcycles will be males between a certain age group and income band. It is widely used in business especially in situations where the interpretation of results is more important than the accuracy. Problem solving Determination of the appropriate responses or actions necessary to alleviate a problem. People have the ability to evaluate each alternative with respect to all the criteria and arrive at an overall rating for each alternative.
People do not attempt to optimize but will take the first alternative that satisfies their current level of aspiration (satisficing).
Level of aspiration Refers to the level of performance a person expects to attain and it is impacted by the person’s prior successes and failures.
Situation of Risk Reasonably accurate probabilities based on historical data and past experiences often an be calculated.
Maximin approach Comparing the worst possible outcomes for each alternative and selecting the one that is least undesirable; sometimes called the pessimistic approach to decision making. The manager that listens to problems and promises to act might also not make a decision when required.
Suggests an evaluative framework that is guided by hedonism: One behaves in ways that increase pleasure and decrease pain.
Innovation Process of applying a new and creative idea to a product, service, or method of operation.
Followers of the Gordon Technique maintain that this technique generates better-quality ideas.


Transaction-processing systems substitute computer processing for manual recordkeeping procedures. The scenery resembles canyons and the desert, and the creatures are vibrant shades of blue, turquoise, pink and purple. And it’s so much easier to talk about big decisions when following such adorable little characters. Rose and Her Amazing Nose is a picture book that does just this: it teaches kids the importance of accepting themselves. Additionally, we are all individual human beings, raised in different cultural and economic environments, as well as individual differences in family upbringing. As the name implies, this management style individual can be “daddy-like”, or a symbolic father-figure.
There is more of a delegation of authority and proper leadership skills are critical, and workers may have more of a sense of responsibility, since they are playing a more direct role in decision-making. The participative style may take input from subordinates, but ultimately managerial decision making is that of the managers. Based on this, it is clear that if a customer’s income is not greater than 1.2 times the instalment amount they have to pay, they are likely to default on the loan.
If the target variable is continuous for example of something happening probability (0 to 1) or income etc we use the reduction in variance test or the F test.
Applying decision trees using the prediction of neural net as the target variable can generate rules that provide broad understanding of the neural net model. Use decision trees when time is of essence.Finally, whenever available, use decision trees for initial data exploration in any project. People have the self-discipline to choose the alternative that rates the highest (they will not manipulate the system). Individual aspirations concerning a decision fluctuate upward and downward depending on the value of the most recently identified alternatives. Under such conditions, the decision maker can use expected value analysis to reach a decision. The manager who never seems to have enough information, frets and worries over even the simplest decisions. Combinations of and improvements on ideas that have been previously presented are encouraged. The illustrations are especially charming, bringing the wide-open desert and canyons to life. The autocrat tends to make all the decisions without any reference or need for subordinate input. They may listen to the views, opinions, and feedback of employees, but the ultimate decision-making capacity lies with “pater” (Latin for “father”). The big drawback with this management style is the ability, training, skills, and general over-all aptitude of knowing how to delegate individuals to perform the tasks required of them.
Having an affinity for romantic stories and finding such information more significant than other hard evidence. As his name implies, the great and mysterious Yabbut whispers in children’s ears and says that there is always an excuse to not journey through the canyon to find a good decision. A very unique and enjoyable read for the whole family, and a valuable reminder to all of us to make good decisions and avoid the dreaded Yabbut.
The autocrat tends towards a dictatorial form of leadership and management, but may on occasion allows subordinates some freedom in performing their work.
The paternal management style may encourage worker loyalty at times, but still suffers from of the disadvantages of the autocrat. Obviously someone who is computer-illiterate (although rare in the 21st century!) cannot be delegated a computer programming or systems analysis job-task.  Those who are interested in management styles might consider coursework from a leadership masters degree program at an accredited university, for example Online masters of public administration. The laissez-faire manager sets the tasks, and allows workers complete freedom to complete the task.
Suggestions to overcome emotional attachments include: Becoming aware of biases and allowing for them. Adults will chuckle at the name and nod along, since we are all familiar with the sneaking, clever Yabbut.
The directive autocrat management style simply expects all orders to be executed without question or input.
There is even Management By Walking Around (MBWA), where managers simply gather information as proactive listeners. The autocrat management style can be effective when over-seeing a large number of unskilled workers, or in times of company crisis.
Each of the management styles can be adopted or combined to fit the business or management environment the individual works in.



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