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By far, the biggest market on a global scale is the currency market.  It trades over Five billion dollars in notional value daily, making it also one of the most liquid markets in the world. The fact that Currency futures are all pegged against the US Dollar makes it imperative that anyone trading these has a solid understanding of the supply and demand imbalances that occur in the US dollar index ($DXY).  The Dollar Index is a basket of currencies that are measured against the US dollar.
As  a result of the Euro being such a big piece of the Dollar index pie the inverse correlation between the two is very strong. A key probability enhancer is to find areas where the $DXY will turn up after it has been declining or turn down after a rally.
In addition, the strength or weakness of the US Dollar also has ramifications in the commodities markets.  As I mentioned before, the key is to find the turning points in the Dollar index to give us a leading indication of where the commodities are likely to go. The first chart shows the supply and demand zones of the US Dollar Index with vertical lines on the dates where price turned. Online Trading Academy provides financial education services and is a leader in trader and investment education. Online Trading Academy provides financial education services and is a leader in investor and trader education. After leaving University in 1999, Sam thrust himself into the media world, working as an executive producer and part-time presenter for London’s Capital FM.
Under the guidance and mentorship of some of Online Trading Academy’s best instructors, Sam himself joined the teaching roster and forged his own unique style of trading.
I thought this would be a good title for my article because when a market like Gold starts to move up or down there seems to be a large following of capital from all parts of the world. Let’s look at some of the reasons for so much capital trying to follow this yellow brick road.
Gold has historically had lower volatility than other Commodity products and Stock Index Futures. Fortunately many of the world economies have not had to deal with inflation for many years. Buying Gold in the cash market can be done and has limited risk to only what you pay for the Gold.
You can also buy a Commodity Futures contract on Gold and take delivery at the expiration of the contract. There are many Gold mining companies (Commodity Producers), but what about another type of Commercial Gold trader, the world Central Banks? In this week’s article I will delve into what drives price movement in the Currency futures as well as many of the commodities markets.


The Biggest component is the Euro currency which represents close to 60% of the value of the index.
Finding these areas beforehand would give a trader an edge as to whether to aggressively be pursuing long or short entries in the Currency futures. In the two charts below we can see how having a better understanding of these concepts can help a trader change her results.
And speaking of situational awareness, if you’re currently trading without an edge it is tantamount to you flying blind, and who wants to do that? By no means do any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Roles in the record and film industry followed, where Sam conducted many promotional interviews and honed his presentation skills for nearly 7 years.
A devoted student of the Market, Sam’s focus is on strict risk management discipline, combined with a realistic approach to understanding the true nature of Price Action. Having an asset with lower volatility in your portfolio may help to see more consistent percentage gains along with potentially lower risk. However, economies are very cyclical and eventually we will all have to deal with it again. Once you purchase the Gold there are storage and insurance fees to maintain your Gold safely.
To hold the Gold contract until the expiration at which time you could take delivery of Gold you would need approximately 5 – 10% of the total contract value.
These are shares traded on Stock Exchanges that track the underlying Gold Futures contract. These Banks around the world buy large quantities of Gold to hold as another form of currency reserves.
Seasonal patterns are not without failure.  But if a market is not being affected by outside forces (weather, mining strikes, geo-political events etc) then the patterns have a better chance of working.
As we can see, the date where the Dollar index turned down coincides with finding a bottom and then starting a nice rally.
With a strong desire to work for himself, Sam left the media industry behind and spent an intense 18 months studying to become a professional Life Coach, embarked on various property investments and gave in to his childhood fascination with the money markets by training to become a trader with Online Trading Academy.
Fueled by a passion for the markets, Sam now teaches and presents for Online Trading Academy, welcoming and helping others into the rewarding world of trading. For centuries, especially during times of financial and geopolitical crisis investors and traders have sought Gold as a way to protect their capital assets in this physical Commodity.
If you were to look at Gold and compare it to an asset class, the most closely related would be the currency markets. At that time, Gold may be the investment of choice, adding to demand as it has shown to be the Commodity of choice to hedge against inflation. This is called margin and is used to cover any losses you incur while the Gold position is open.
The capital appreciation you may get from these Stocks might also be used for your purchase of Gold in the cash market.


According to the World Gold Council Central Banks around the world had 26,500 tonnes of Gold reserves in 2009.
As with most natural resources we are not running out of them, but merely need to go deeper into the earth to extract them. A month later as the Dollar Index fell into its demand zone notice that about the same day, Copper peaked and then turned down. The author expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.
Since his graduation, he has been a full-time trader, specializing in Stock Index Futures and Forex. Once you close the contract (sell it back after you buy it) then this margin is returned to your account (plus or minus any profits or losses) or used to purchase the Gold if you wish to take delivery.
This requires extra labor, machinery, time and other cost producing events to mine Gold today.
Of course as experienced traders and investors we all know we need to do our own analysis before investing in any market research report.
The author may or may not have positions in Financial Instruments discussed in this newsletter. During this time, many of the world economies were very strong, and for some countries their citizens were experiencing larger than usual income growth. Even as the price of Gold falls they are adding to their long positions of the precious metal. You can also trade the New Zealand Dollar, the Mexican Peso, and other emerging market currency in the futures market, but these contracts are not liquid so they would not be advisable to trade. You cannot take delivery of the physical Gold through ETF’s like you can in the Futures market, but you can use the cash from any capital appreciation in your GLD purchase to obtain Gold in the cash market.
Since the majority of Commodity and Stock prices are denominated in US Dollars Gold is a logical alternative for diversification in ones portfolio. While there were many other factors leading to this very large price rise, individual investors were finally able to enjoy the benefits of a Gold bull market. Is it possible that the miners of Gold could not keep up with this demand during the bull market? There was some unconfirmed speculation that some Gold miners had quit hedging as Gold prices rallied so strongly.
Usually this would be a warning sign of a market top, when commercial traders start thinking like speculators.



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