As first reported in ScenceDaily, geographers have projected temperature increases due to greenhouse gas emissions to reach a not-so-chilling conclusion: climate zones will shift and some climates will disappear completely by 2100. The eastern United States has a mild, humid, temperate climate, while the western United States has a dry climate, right? Well, according to climate models, global warming could change our current world climate zones, which would affect where crops are grown and even drive some plant and animal species to extinction, all in the next 100 years.
The American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report. BACKGROUND: A new study by researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Wyoming predicts that by the year 2100, many of today's familiar climates will be replaced by climates unknown in today's world, if current rates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions continue. ABOUT THE STUDY: The climate modeling study translates CO2 and other greenhouse gas emission levels into climate change. CARBON IN THE AIR: Carbon, in the form of CO2, is a greenhouse gas continually released into the atmosphere as a direct result of human activities.
ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING: Global warming refers to an increase in the earth's average temperature -- which has risen about 1 degree F over the past 100 years. The Responding to Climate Change Global Challenge Steering Group is made up of experts in the field from across the network. For the past 100 years, there has been a widespread scientific effort to monitor and understand the Earth’s climate system. Climate records from deep oceanic sediments and wind-blown deposits span the last several million years, while gases trapped in ice-cores reveal the climate of the past 740,000 years. During the glacial-interglacial Milankovitch cycles, temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), a powerful greenhouse gas, recorded in the ice sheets of Antarctica have been nearly in lockstep (Figure 2).
Changes in the Earth’s orbit and concentrations of greenhouse gases principally drove the temperature oscillations that marked the glacial-interglacial cycles during the past three million years. Abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system crosses a threshold, triggering a rapid transition to a new climate state. In the geologic record, the most notable rapid climate change occurred approximately 12,800 years ago, marking the beginning of the 1,200-year cool period known as the Younger Dryas. The rapid climate change of the Younger Dryas and the event around 8,200 years ago were not uncommon in the past. With respect to the Southwest, temperatures in Arizona and New Mexico have also been rising, particularly since the mid-1970s.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s, the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and other human activities have contributed to rapid increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane. At no other time in the last 700,000 years has atmospheric concentrations of CO2 or methane been as high as they are presently (Figure 2). At numerous times in the geologic past, the Earth’s astronomical position reduced the amount of solar energy striking the atmosphere, causing massive ice sheets to grow.
The climate system evolves in part due to changes in external factors that affect the amount of solar radiation available to drive the climate. To identify how and to what degree human actions alter the climate, it is important to understand the principal drivers of climate. The amount of solar radiation that strikes the top of the Earth’s atmosphere is not constant. Changes in the amount of insolation incite feedbacks, or secondary changes in the climate system that either amplify or suppress climate change.
While the Earth’s astronomical position changes over long time periods, the emission of radiation from the Sun also changes, but on short time cycles lasting 11 years.
The Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) stated that the changes in solar radiation are not the major cause of the observed temperature changes in the second half of the 20th century unless those changes have caused unknown large feedbacks in the climate system.2 However, the IPCC also stated that more research is needed before the magnitude of solar effects on climate can be stated with certainty.
Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and water vapor, are naturally part of the Earth’s atmosphere. The greenhouse gas effect functions by trapping in the atmosphere heat from the Sun’s radiation.
For the past 650,000 years or so, the atmospheric concentrations of the potent greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) has wiggled up and down between approximately 180 and 300 parts per million (ppm), with the pre-industrial concentration referenced as 280 ppm. Global climate models suggest that the GHG effect will help cause the average global temperature to increase between 3–8 degrees F, with the best estimate approximately 5 degrees F, when CO2 concentrations are double what they were prior to the industrial revolution in the mid to late 1700s, or at approximately 560 ppm. In June 1991, on an island in the Philippines, Mount Pinatubo erupted and ejected millions of tons of gases, water, and tiny solid particles called aerosols as high as 20 miles into the atmosphere. The Pinatubo eruption shot material high enough into the atmosphere that trade winds spread the material around the globe. There are many feedback mechanisms in the climate system that moderate the magnitude of climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to help understand the effect of the feedbacks on the climate system.
With a new analysis of land regions, ETH climate researcher are challenging the general climate change paradigm that dry regions are getting drier and wet regions are getting wetter. Based on models and observations, climate scientists have devised a simplified formula to describe one of the consequences of climate change: regions already marked by droughts will continue to dry out in the future climate. In their analysis, the climate scientists made use of measured data compiled solely on land, such as rainfall, actual evaporation and potential evaporation. The evaluation shows no obvious trend towards a drier or wetter climate across three-quarters of the land are. Some regions which should have become wetter according to the simple DDWW formula have actually become drier in the past a€“ this includes parts of the Amazon, Central America, tropical Africa and Asia. Nevertheless, the 'wet gets wetter' rule is largely confirmed for the Eastern United States, Northern Australia and northern Eurasia. A clear change in salinity has been detected in the world's oceans, signalling shifts and an acceleration in the global rainfall and evaporation cycle.
During the day, storms develop more frequently over drier land surfaces surrounded by wetter areas than elsewhere.
Projections of rainfall changes from global warming have been very uncertain because scientists could not determine how two different mechanisms will impact rainfall. A local water expert says more work needs to be done to understand the state's past atmospheric conditions to determine how climate change will affect water resources.


Researchers from Aarhus University, Denmark, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA, have developed a new approach to measure the combined exposure of species to both climate and land use change. Current rates of climate change could trigger instability in a major Antarctic glacier, ultimately leading to more than 2m of sea-level rise.
Sharks swim around a platform off Mexico's east coast as scientists drill deep into the ocean floor, extracting the remains of the asteroid widely blamed for the demise of the dinosaurs. Emissions from farms outweigh all other human sources of fine-particulate air pollution in much of the United States, Europe, Russia and China, according to new research. As climatologists closely monitor the impact of human activity on the world's oceans, researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology have found yet another worrying trend impacting the health of the Pacific Ocean. Jack just as a matter of idle curiosity, how much CO2 will you and your friends pump into the air to get to, be in , and go home from that march? This is our ultimate challenge NO!!Your ultimate challenge is to grow a brain and use it to see what ignorant hypocrites you are. I thought this was all Settled Science, the ice caps were going to be gone by now and the earth would be warming?Still confused by the IPCC report that showed temperatures rising before CO2 levels rose, concluding that warming is caused by rising CO2 levels. AkiBola muttered I thought this was all Settled Science, the ice caps were going to be gone by now and the earth would be warming? There are 7,000,000,000 people on this planet, with every one of them starting fires with just about every one burning coal, cutting down rainforests for livestock, and every one processing food.The boundary between the atmosphere and outer space is called the Karman Line, which is about 62 miles above the seas level.
Here is a little interesting quote from the NYT."Worse, trees emit reactive volatile gases that contribute to air pollution and are hazardous to human health. Tropical highlands and polar regions may be the first to disappear, and large swaths of the tropics and subtropics will reach even hotter temperatures. With levels of CO2 continuing to rise, Williams suggests areas of the world that currently have a tropical climate will be much warmer and drive vegetation and animal life north. Williams said the same thing will happen, potentially driving plant and animal species into extinction if they can't adapt to the changes fast enough. The new global climate models for the next century forecast the complete disappearance of several existing climates currently found in tropical highlands and regions near the poles, while large swaths of the tropics and subtropics may develop new climates unlike anything seen today. It uses average summer and winter temperatures and precipitation levels to map the differences between climate zones today and in the year 2100.
A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, and a rise in sea level, for example, as polar glaciers melt.
Some of them are imaging the Earth, recording data that is used to track weather and climate.
This data has helped document recent climate change and has also enabled scientists to dive deeper into the geologic record to uncover past climatic conditions. These and other records detail numerous glacial-interglacial cycles of the past three million years that are believed to be instigated by changes in solar energy striking the Earth's surface. Since changes in past temperatures generally precede changes in CO2 by several centuries, many scientists believe that CO2 acted as an amplifier and not an instigator of temperature changes. A climate system with thresholds behaves similarly to a tipping bucket that is balanced over a pivot—the bucket remains upright until one too many water droplets topples it. Ice core analyses indicate the period began with cooling occurring in a few, decade-long intervals, whereas the end was marked by an increase in regional temperature of about 15 degrees F over 10 years.4 In the geologic records, warming is often more rapid than cooling. Scientists hypothesize mammoth lakes impounded by the North American ice sheet were able to drain catastrophically into the north Atlantic Ocean during the retreat of the massive ice sheet.
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide during the last several decades - the Mauna Loa or Keeling curve. The cause of these cooling periods, and the subsequent warmer periods that followed, was a change in the amount of solar energy available to power the climate system. These factors are called forcings and include solar variations, cycles in the Earth’s position in space, volcanic eruptions, and changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Schematic of the Earth's orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles) that moderate insolation and drive the ice age cycles. During the course of a year, for example, the Earth’s orbit around the Sun and its tilt alter the amount of incoming solar radiation, or insolation, which cause seasons.
The insolation and feedbacks work in concert to control the timing of large-scale climatic swings. In 1978 and 1980, satellites were launched in part to measure variations in solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere2.
These gases act as powerful amplifiers of temperature, helping elevate the average temperature in the lower atmosphere to a comfortable 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
The eruption killed hundreds of people and altered global climate for the next several years. Studies that have analyzed GCM results suggest that the combined affect on the climate system of the important positive and negative feedbacks is an amplification of temperature5. This was demonstrated by a team of ETH climate researchers led by Peter Greve, lead author of a study recently published in Nature Geoscience. The data derived from various sources was combined by Greve and his co-authors a€“ this allowed them to extract trends in terms of a region's humidity and dryness.
On the other hand, there are dry areas that have become wetter: parts of Patagonia, central Australia and the Midwestern United States.
The arctic ice cap has lost lots of mass & it appears its re-icing cycle is constrained. Considering the fact it's only an hour drive to outer space, with 7 Billion people contained in that marginal volume, how can you guys honestly say we have no impact?
These emissions are crucial to trees a€” to protect themselves from environmental stresses like sweltering heat and bug infestations. Geographer Jack Williams says, based on his new analyses of climate forecasting models, we're headed for major change -- fast. Williams believes these changes would lead to the spreading of Malaria northward, more catastrophic natural disasters and overall greater human health risks.
The most severely affected parts of the world span both heavily populated regions, including the southeastern United States, southeastern Asia, and parts of Africa, as well as known hotspots of biodiversity, such as the Amazonian rainforest and South American mountain ranges.
The concentrations of atmospheric CO2 has already increased by about 30% since the dawn of the industrial revolution in the 19th century.


Some of this rise is due to the greenhouse effect: certain gases in the atmosphere trap energy from the sun so that heat can't escape back into space.
These cycles are known as Milankovitch Cycles and they are characterized by global cool periods with major glaciations that recur about every 100,000 years, followed by shorter-lived warm periods. Changes in carbon dioxide concentrations (blue) track closely with changes in temperature (red) during these cycles, but carbon dioxide levels are now higher than at any time during the past 650,000 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is greater than a 90 percent probability that CO2 variations strongly amplified climate but did not trigger the end of glacial periods. The ample evidence in the geologic record for rapid climate change suggests that a gradual change, such as an increase in CO2 or the melting of polar ice, may cause a large and rapid jump in temperature.
All of these phenomena change the radiation balance which has a direct influence on climate. Over longer time periods as well, cyclical changes in the Earth’s astronomical position change the amount of insolation, which causes major shifts in the climate. In the past two million years, the major ice ages have generally occurred when summer insolation striking the high northern latitudes is low.
Without greenhouse gases, the average near-surface conditions would be cold enough to freeze water, at approximately 0 degrees F. This trapping effect causes the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface to be warmer than it would be without the gases (Figure 2). Changes in temperature, however, are slower than increases in CO2 concentrations; if CO2 reached 560 in 75 years, a 5-degree F temperature change would occur in subsequent years. A year later, the global temperature was about 1 degree F lower than it otherwise would have been, while the Northern Hemisphere temperature was depressed by about 1.5 degrees F3. With respect to temperature, positive feedbacks tend to amplify warming, while negative feedbacks suppress it.
However, there is considerable spread in the magnitude of this change5, and this remains an important area of study. Traditional analyses use metrics that can comprehensively describe climate characteristics above the ocean, but is problematic over land.
This can be misleading, as it cannot do justice to the complexity of the underlying systems. According to this report, scientists now say AGW causes more antarctic ice because of the winds.
The predicted changes also anticipate dramatic ecological shifts, with extensive effects on large segments of the Earth's population. Most of this increase comes from the use of fossil fuel -- coal, oil and natural gas -- for energy, but approximately one-quarter of it can be attributed to changes in land use, such as the clearing of forests and the cultivation of soils for food production. Without the greenhouse effect, the earth would be too cold for humans to survive, but if it becomes too strong, the earth could become much warmer than usual, causing problems for humans, plants and animals. They combine with modern observations to reveal numerous long periods of glaciations, shorter-lived warmer times, regional temperature swings of 15 degrees F within a decade, and current warming that has made most regions warmer now than at any other time in the past 1,000 years. During these cycles, the minimum global average temperature has been about 9 to 11 degrees F cooler than the maximum temperature.
They also cause secondary changes known as feedbacks, such as an increase or decrease in the size of ice sheets and the cloud cover, which in turn magnifies or lessens climate change. During the past few million years these changes cool the climate, instigating glacial advances, while at other times the climate is warmer and ice sheets and glaciers are smaller. Sunspots and faculae are related so that a high number of sunspots are accompanied by a high number of faculae, and the net effect is greater solar radiation.
Had Pinatubo not been located in the tropical region, the atmospheric circulation patterns would not have spread the sun-blocking material around the globe and temperatures would not have been lowered as much.
Without these additions, the IPCC states, the effect of aerosols from other sources has a negative effect on the energy balance, which slightly suppresses the warming caused by other controls on climate such as greenhouse gases and solar radiation variations4. While this fact was mentioned in said studies, scientific and public discourse has overlooked this aspect so far.
What were you thinking, did it come from dumb media hype or a proper peer reviewed climate science article ?AkiBola went on Still confused by the IPCC report that showed temperatures rising before CO2 levels rose, concluding that warming is caused by rising CO2 levels. Perhaps the increase in ice extent along with ice mass melting will reduce temperatures in my area in summer only a few months away.It is no fun having days of 45 deg C with minimal respite in between (sigh) of 'only' 35 deg C !I notice many focus on ice but don't delineate volume vs extent vs mass, especially MR166 who, having been informed of this disparity STILL refuses to include the dichotomy in his short posts, just like ryggesogn2 as if they are related. Natural sources of atmospheric carbon include gases emitted by volcanoes, and respiration of living things.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. The satellite measurements, in addition to naked-eye observations that document the number of sunspots as far back as 400 years, suggest that sunspots and faculae wax and wane on an 11-year cycle. Sources of aerosols include carbon soot from the burning of fossil fuels, mineral dust from activities like plowing fields and overgrazing, and biomass burning that includes natural fires and human-caused deforestation fires4.
These feedbacks contribute to uncertainties in future climate change and make pinpointing the exact warming difficult.
In their new study, the ETH researchers in the group headed by Sonia Seneviratne's, professor for land-climate dynamics, take into account the specific climatic properties of land surfaces, where the amount of available water is limited when compared with the ocean.
They are actually helping the earth to cool down by convection method of heat transmission. AWWA Research Foundation, Denver, Colorado and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, Colorado. Might I earnestly advise:-Please be smart & link directly to the report instead of claiming such obtuse report exist ? We are expanding more and more dry land surface by urbanization, deforestation and deserts formation causing climate change and power crisis.Man-made not gas-made.



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