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Fossil fuels continue to dominate total gross energy consumption in EU-27, but their share is declining: from 83% in 1990 to 77% in 2009.
EEA (2009) - Review and analysis of emissions' life cycle analysis studies in the field of conventional and renewable energy generation technologies. The share of fossil fuels (coal, lignite, oil and natural gas) in gross inland consumption declined slightly from 83 % in 1990 to 77% in 2009 in the EU-27. What are the trends concerning the share of solid fuels in total gross inland consumption in Europe?
The share of natural gas in total gross inland consumption increased from around 18 % in 1990 to 24.6 % in 2009. What are the trends concerning the share of crude oil and petroleum products in total gross inland consumption?
The share of oil (crude oil and petroleum products) increased until 1998, from around 38 % in 1990 to almost 40% in 1998.
What are the trends concerning the share of nuclear energy in total gross inland consumption? Total energy consumption or gross inland energy consumption represents the quantity of energy necessary to satisfy the inland consumption of a country. The level, the evolution as well as the structure of the total gross inland energy consumption provide an indication of the extentA  environmental pressures caused by energy production and consumption are likely to diminish or not. The consumption of fossil fuels (such as crude oil, oil products, hard coal, lignite and natural and natural A gas) A has a number of negative effects on the environment and human health , CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution levels (e.g. A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050 (COM(2011) 112 final)Presents a roadmap for action in line with a 80-95% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2050. Energy Efficiency Plan 2011 (COM(2011) 109 final)Proposes additional measures to achieve the 20 % primary energy saving target by 2020.
Energy 2020 a€“ A strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy (COM(2010) 639 final)Energy efficiency is the first of the five priorities of the new energy strategy defined by the Commission. Council adopted on 6 April 2009 the climate-energy legislative package containing measures to fight climate change and promote renewable energy. Second Strategic Energy Review; COM(2008) 781 finalStrategic review on short, medium and long term targets on EU energy security.
With its "Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050" the European Commission is looking beyond these 2020 objectives and setting out a plan to meet the long-term target of reducing domestic emissions by 80 to 95% by mid-century as agreed by European Heads of State and governments. The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices. One of our underlying problems is that energy costs have risen faster than most workers’ wages since 2000.
Based on recent patterns in China, we would expect fuel consumption to be increasing by about 7.5% per year. Part of China’s problem is that some of the would-be buyers of its products are not growing.
Of course, some of the recent slumping demand of Ukraine and Russia are intended–this is what US sanctions are about.
The United States is often portrayed as the bright ray of sunshine in a world with problems. Looking at oil separately (Figure 8), the data indicates that for the world in total, oil consumption grew by 0.8% in 2014. If oil producers had planned for 2014 oil consumption based on the recent past growth in oil consumption growth, they would have overshot by about 1,484 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE), or about 324,000 barrels per day.
We can also look at oil consumption for the US, EU, and Japan, compared to all of the rest of the world. Looking at the two parts of the world separately (Figure 11), we see that in the last three years, growth in coal consumption outside of US, EU, and Japan, has tapered down. Another way of looking at fuels is in a chart that compares consumption of the various fuels side by side (Figure 12). Consumption of oil, coal and natural gas are all moving on tracks that are in some sense parallel.
We know that commodity prices of many kinds (energy, food, metals of many kinds) have been have generally been falling, on an inflation adjusted basis, for the past four years. It stands to reason that if prices of commodities are low, while the general trend in the cost of producing these commodities is upward, there will be erosion in the amount of these products that can be profitably produced, and hence, that can be purchased. It seems to me that the lower commodity prices we have been seeing over the past four years (with a recent sharper drop for oil), likely reflect an affordability problem.
For a while, the lack of affordability could be masked with a variety of programs: economic stimulus, increasing debt and Quantitative Easing. If the price of a commodity, say oil, is low, this is a problem for a country that exports the commodity. Even if subsidies are not involved, lower tax revenue will very often affect the projects an oil exporter can undertake. The concern I have now is that with low oil prices, and low prices of other commodities, a number of countries will have to cut back their programs, in order to balance government budgets. My concern is that low commodity prices will prove to be self-perpetuating, because low commodity prices will adversely affect commodity exporters.
In my view, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 occurred indirectly as a result of low oil prices in the late 1980s. None of the issues I raise would be a problem, if our economy had a reverse gear–in other words, if it could shrink as well as grow. Businesses in poor financial condition and workers who have been laid off tend to default on loans. The number of elderly and disabled tends to grow, even as the working population stagnates or falls, making the funding of pensions increasingly difficult. What we seem to be seeing is an end to the boost that globalization gave to the world economy. Globalization brings huge advantages, in the form of access to cheap energy products still in the ground. Wages in the newly globalized area tend to rise, negating some of the initial benefit of low wages. Wages of workers in the area developed prior to globalization tend to fall because of competition with workers from parts of the world getting lower pay. Eventually, more than enough factory space is built, and more than enough housing is built. Demand for energy products (in terms of what workers around the world can afford) cannot keep up with production, in part because wages of many workers lag thanks to competition with low-paid workers in less-advanced countries.
It is quite possible that at some point in the not too distant future, demand (and prices) will fall further. In my view, low prices and low demand for commodities are what we should expect, as we reach limits of a finite world. Resilience is a program of Post Carbon Institute, a nonprofit organization dedicated to helping the world transition away from fossil fuels and build sustainable, resilient communities.
One of our underlying problems is that energy costs have risen faster than most workers’ wages since 2000. Part of China’s problem is that some of the would-be buyers of its products are not growing.
I have used the same scale (maximum = 3.5 billion metric tons of oil equivalent) on Figure 3 as I used on Figure 2 so that readers can easily compare the European’s Union’s energy consumption to that of China. Of course, some of the recent slumping demand of Ukraine and Russia are intended–this is what US sanctions are about. To a significant extent, the US’s slowing energy consumption is intended–more fuel-efficient cars, more fuel-efficient lighting, and better insulation.
People buy goods that they want or need, with one caveat: they don’t buy what they cannot afford.
Notice that the three “layers” in the middle are all countries whose economies are fairly closely tied to commodity exports.
None of the issues I raise would be a problem, if our economy had a reverse gear–in other words, if it could shrink as well as grow. Many have focused on a single problem area–for example, the requirement that interest be paid on debt–as being the problem preventing the economy from shrinking.
While no thinking person can doubt that any finite resource that is relentlessly consumed will eventually decline, I always believed it more likely that the decline would happen over a long period – a long bumpy plateau, followed by a gradual and bumpy descent. I wouldn’t put too much hope in maintaining your investments, diversified as they may be. A little – I see many today blends the gasoline with biofuels that has a lower energy content. If the point is that a given amount of oil at different EROEI levels is the same then the question is totally irrelevant and lacks any meaningful connection to what happens to the population and economy at those levels – besides the changes to the gasoline you put in the tank. Makes the argument that producers could (will?) start drawing down the fraclog and basically keep Bakken output plateaued through 2015.
I do think there might be some issues with the data he used though, and I posted my response.
But I agree that your numbers on the required rigs are probably in the right ball park, if well profiles keep where they are right now. Beam said “I always believed it more likely that the decline would happen over a long period – a long bumpy plateau, followed by a gradual and bumpy descent.
My biggest question is can we hold this global system together that supports all our delocalized locals in a descent. I personally am thinking we will enter a bumpy descent that can limp along for a few years mainly because this bumpy descent can be made to look like lackluster growth by the powers to be.
China’s local governments have managed to accumulated a debt pile worth 35% of GDP via off-balance sheet, high-cost loans which are now being swapped for low interest muni bonds in an effort to reduce debt servicing costs and extend WAM. I agree that it is quite unlikely that it is caused by worsening wells, but probably by operator (in-)action.
And then in a few years or so when oil makes gasoline expensive again, of course, it will be everyone ELSE’s fault. This indicator considers the total energy consumption by transport in Petajoules (PJ) from 1990 onwards. Energy consumption is an important driver of environmental pressure, most notably climate change.


Although climate policy and the Kyoto protocol are important drivers in reducing fossil fuel consumption (and air quality policy to a lesser extent), this indicator is primarily concerned with energy policy. The EU has set itself the following targets: by 2020 there should be a 30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, from 1990 levels, in the context of a global agreement and a 20 % unilateral reduction.
If the 2030 policy framework, proposed in January 2014, is accepted later this year, these targets will be built upon.
Two key documents published by the European Commission in 2011 outline possible strategies for the transport sector, compatible with the 2050 target. The impact assessment which accompanied the 2011 Transport White Paper (EC, 2011a) suggests that a 70 % reduction in oil consumption by transport from 2008 levels should be achieved by 2050.
Results of the review of the Community Strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles.
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions "A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030". This Communication p resents an integrated policy framework with binding EU-wide targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions and the development of renewable energy sources and with objectives for energy efficiency improvements for the period up to 2030. Since Eurostat data is being used to process statistics, the Eurostat methodology is to be referred to for data collection and specification (see Eurostat, ITF and UNECE, 2009). Data trends within individual countries are difficult to ascertain as energy consumption data often shows unexpected volatility from year to year. This briefing is part of the EEA's report The European Environment - State and Outlook 2015. The share of renewable energy sources more than doubled over the period, from 4.3% in 1990 to 9 % in 2009. Renewable energy consumption is a measure of the contribution from technologies that are, in general, more environmentally benign, as they produce no (or very little) net CO2 and usually significantly lower levels of other pollutants. The trend reversed in 2009 when the gross inland energy consumption in these countries decreased by 1% compared to 2008 due to the economic crisis.
This trend is mainly due to Turkey that absorbs 78% of the gas consumption of these countries. It is calculated as the sum of the gross inland consumption of energy from solid fuels, oil, gas, nuclear and renewable sources, and a small component of a€?othera€™ sources (industrial waste and net imports of electricity). The share of each fuel in total energy consumption is presented in the form of a percentage.
The indicator displays data disaggregated by fuel type as the associated environmental impacts are fuel-specific. It shows how the sectors responsible for Europe's emissions - power generation, industry, transport, buildings and construction, as well as agriculture - can make the transition to a low-carbon economy over the coming decades. The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices. The symptoms we should expect are similar to the patterns we have been seeing recently (Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)).
China’s energy consumption by fuel, based on data of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
European Union Energy Consumption based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 Data.
When China was added to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it used only about 60% as much energy as the European Union. Former Soviet Union energy consumption by source, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy Data 2015. United States energy consumption by fuel, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014.
But part of this reduction in the growth in energy consumption comes from outsourcing a portion of manufacturing to countries around the world, including China. World energy consumption by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. If this entire drop in oil consumption came in the second half of 2014, the overshoot would have been about 648,000 barrels per day during that period.
World coal consumption by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. Coal consumption for the US, EU, and Japan separately from the Rest of the World, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. World energy consumption by fuel, showing each fuel separately, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
This is actually a fairly large percentage gain compared to the recent shrinkage that has been taking place. To a significant extent affordability is based on wages (or income levels for governments or businesses). Figure 13 shows a graph prepared by the International Monetary Fund of trends in commodity prices. This affordability problem arises because for most people, wages did not rise when energy prices rose, and the prices of commodities in general rose in the early 2000s. Eventually these programs reach their limits, and prices begin falling in inflation-adjusted terms. Arguably I could have included more countries in this category–for example, other OPEC countries could be included in this grouping. As these countries try to fix their own problems, their own demand for commodities will drop, and this will affect world commodity prices.
A person can see from Figure 1 how much the energy consumption of the Former Soviet Union fell after 1991. At the same time, the government’s ability to collect taxes falls, because of the poor condition of businesses and workers. Thus, world economic growth is slowing, and because of this slowed economic growth, demand for energy products is slowing.
World CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. From the point of view of businesses, there is also the possibility of access to cheap labor and access to new markets for selling their goods.
There is widespread belief that as we reach limits, prices will rise, and energy products will become scarce.
In 2006, she became interested in the likely financial impacts of oil limits on insurance companies and other financial institutions, and started writing about that issue.
China’s energy consumption by fuel, based on data of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
Arguably I could have included more countries in this category–for example, other OPEC countries could be included in this grouping. At the same time, the government’s ability to collect taxes falls, because of the poor condition of businesses and workers. Big systems with lots of inertia generally don’t change course instantaneously, unless some disruptive new technology causes a sudden paradigm shift.
But it won’t happen so fast or be so severe as to warrant dropping out of the system and retreating to a safe house in the wilderness. I have real life experience in growing my core crops, I have the seed, I can teach other people who are tough enough to do the work how to grow enough food to survive. These profiles have changed remarkably downwards over the last few months, so that is not a given. I feel there are many activities and lifestyles we can weed out of the system that are poor uses of resources and not to mention destructive socially. What I mean by delocalized is nearly all locals are no longer self-resilient or self-sustainable. The most important ones are food production, liquid fuel availability, and systematic stability from confidence. Once threatened the system becomes destabilized and because of our vast global overshoot very vulnerable to collapse. This is part of a wider effort on China’s part to deleverage an economy laboring under $28 trillion in debt. I know you watch this stuff pretty closely and would have some issue with the NDIC fraclog, etc. Still, it was a surprise to me that such a strong effect is visible, and it will be interesting to see how quickly that reverts back with supposedly rising oil prices.
Transport modes included are bunkers (sea), air transport (domestic and international), inland navigation, rail and road transport.
The growth of energy consumption in the transport sector is hampering efforts to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions and, to date, measures to reduce energy consumption by transport have not had the desired effect.
Other related issues are addressed in TERM002 (Transport Emissions of Greenhouse Gases), TERM003 (Transport Emissions of Air Pollutants) and TERM031 (Uptake of Cleaner and Alternative Fuels).
Additional targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % by 2030, and increase the renewable energy share by at least 27 %, also by 2030 will be set. These are the a€?Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050a€™ (EC, 2011a) and the third decennial transport White Paper, a€?Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area a€“ Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport systema€™ (EC, 2011b). To assess whether total energy consumption by transport is growing, time series data for energy consumed was obtained from Eurostat. Energy consumption is calculated based on fuel sales and reported on through a common questionnaire. The EEA is an official agency of the EU, tasked with providing information on Europe's environment.
Renewable energy can, however, have impacts on landscapes and ecosystems (for example, potential flooding and changed water levels from large hydro power) and the incineration of municipal waste (which is generally made up of both renewable and non-renewable material) may also generate local air pollution. Turkey represented in 2009 62% of the total gross inland energy consumption of non-EU EEA member states. This is due to switching from coal to gas which occurred in the power generation sector (but not exclusively), triggered by environmental concerns and economic reasons (price differential between coal and gas in 1990s). Renewables were the fastest growing energy source between 1990 and 2009 due primarily to environmental and security of supply concerns and climate change policies. The relative contribution of a specific fuel is measured by the ratio between the energy consumption originating from that specific fuel and the total gross inland energy consumption calculated for a calendar year.
The consumption of fossil fuels (such as crude oil, oil products, hard coal, lignite and natural and derived gas) provides a proxy indicator for resource depletion, CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution levels (e.g.


Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars.
I see evidence of this in the historical energy data recently updated by BP (BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015).
It seems to me that the patterns in BP’s new data are also of the kind that we would expect to be seeing, if we are hitting limits that are causing low commodity prices. Regardless of cause, and whether the result was intentional or not, the United States’ consumption is not growing very briskly.
Thus, the mismatch we have recently been seeing between oil consumption and supply appears to be partly related to falling demand, based on BP’s data.
Carbon taxes in some countries (but not others) further tended to push manufacturing to coal-intensive manufacturing locations, such as China and India. Now we are at a point where prices of oil, coal, natural gas, and uranium are all low in inflation-adjusted terms, discouraging further investment.
Governments very often get a major share of their tax revenue from taxing the profits of the companies that sell the commodities, such as oil.
Of course, in such a situation exports may fall more than consumption, leading to a rise in oil prices. For long-industrialized countries, globalization also represents a workaround to inadequate local energy supplies.
It seems to me that the patterns in BP’s new data are also of the kind that we would expect to be seeing, if we are hitting limits that are causing low commodity prices.
Regardless of cause, and whether the result was intentional or not, the United States’ consumption is not growing very briskly. Thus, the mismatch we have recently been seeing between oil consumption and supply appears to be partly related to falling demand, based on BP’s data.
With the falling percentage growth rate, growth is more or less “linear”–similar amounts were added each year, rather than similar percentages.
I was still early in my career in corporate America, and there were some in PO forecasting imminent collapse, while others believed in a long decline scenario. Dropping out of the economic system in anticipation of an immediate collapse didn’t seem prudent then, and the intervening years have proven that assessment to be correct. It does warrant diversifying ones investments, taking some reasonable precautions wrt to hard assets and most importantly, keep ones antennae up to shifts in the winds of current events. My business takes me to Asia frequently, and the changes there for the average Joe have been quite profound.
I feel a descent will initiate some kind of crisis that will focus our attention on mitigation and adaptation to descent and all the other predicaments we face.
There are some on this board that like to mention the third world subsistence farmers but they are in many cases surrounded or near population overshoot. This deleveraging effort goes far beyond local government debt, as Beijing is now moving to allow for more corporate defaults as the country moves to liberalize its financial markets. I suspect some aspect of contango trade in JAN-APR affected this: choking, days offline, etc.
If Jane were likely to drive, say, a Prius C because gasoline taxes reflected something close to the social cost of oil (pollution, AGW, defense, scarcity, etc) then she’d likely get a lot of miles per unit of gasoline.
Improvements to energy efficiency are still encouraged (from the a€?20-20-20a€? target of increasing energy efficiency by 20 % by 2020) but no new target has been proposed (EC, 2014a). Data for various fuels was downloaded for a€?bunkersa€™ (sea), air (domestic and international), inland navigation, road and rail transport.
However, oil pipeline dataA is lacking for the majority of countries, making it less reliable. However, despite increased support at the EU and national level, their contribution in total gross inland consumption remains low at 9% in 2009. For instance, natural gas, for instance, has approximately 40 % less carbon than coal per unit of energy content, and 25 % less carbon content than oil, and contains only marginal quantities of sulphur (see Figure 3 below). In the last 20 years, we greatly ramped up globalization, but we are now losing the temporary benefit globalization brings. Even with this slow growth, it raised hydroelectric energy consumption to 6.8% of world energy supply.
With recent growth, other renewables amounted to 2.5% of total world energy consumption in 2014. If the price of oil or other commodity that is exported drops, then it will be difficult for the government to collect enough tax revenue. Adding more countries to this category would make the portion of world consumption tied to countries depending on commodity exports even greater. Ultimately, the issue becomes whether a world economy can adapt to falling oil supply, caused by the collapse of some oil exporters. The protocol aimed to reduce carbon emissions, but because it inadvertently encouraged globalization, it tended to have the opposite effect. This is what we would expect, if the world is running into affordability problems, ultimately related to fuel prices rising faster than wages.
Many economies are gradually moving into recession–this is what the low prices and falling rates of energy growth really mean.
Many economies are gradually moving into recession–this is what the low prices and falling rates of energy growth really mean. The imminent collapse group believed in a near term zombie apocalypse that would render all BAU endeavors moot.
I’ve been fortunate to have had a rewarding career that has put me in good position to survive a long “down” period, much better than if I’d dropped out of the system 15 years ago.
And 150+ rigs to get serious growth going (and in that cases services prices go up also…so need some serious price increase for oil).
It is only the global that keeps this population overshoot from disrupting the local subsistence. Data for bunkers covers the quantities of fuel delivered to sea going vessels of all countries. Occasionally, data used in older time-series may change due to revisions in the methodology used. This slight increase is partly due to the fact that there was a widening of the gas a€“ coal price differential that benefited to coal and led to a switch from gas to coal in power generation. In 2009, the consumption of natural gas decreased sharply with the economic crisis, at the same rate as total gross inland consumption (-5.5%) (see Figure 2). In 2009, the consumption of oil decreased by 5.4% due to the economic crisis which led for the first time to a decrease in transport demand (see ENER 16).
The degree of environmental impact depends on the relative share of different fossil fuels and the extent to which pollution abatement measures are used. There are other environmental pressures coming from energy production: air pollution, land a€“use changes and crop-escape (that could result in large scale introduction of invasive species) from biomass, surface and groundwater pollution, ecosystem services and biodiversity loss, etc. We find we again need to deal with the limits of a finite world and the constraints such a world places on growth.
This doesn’t do much to offset slowing growth or outright declines in many other countries around the world. This doesn’t do much to offset slowing growth or outright declines in many other countries around the world. I still don’t believe there will is an imminent zombie apocalypse, although I do believe we could see a market correction that could result in a step down for the world economy that could be protracted. Except, of course, unless we count the last twenty or more years as part of that long decline. I still believed we are cooked with climate change but who knows with such a large and complex system. Increased use of solid fuels has also implications for European import dependency as around 44% of the coal based gross inland consumption was imported in 2009, mostly hard coal a€“ around 95% (see also ENER 12 for details).
Natural gas use also has implications for European import dependency as around 64% of the gas-based gross inland consumption was imported in 2009 (see also ENER 12 for details).
Natural gas, for instance, has approximately 40 % less carbon than coal per unit of energy content, and 25 % less carbon content than oil, and contains only marginal quantities of sulphur.The level of nuclear energy consumption provides an indication of the trends in the amount of nuclear waste generated and of the risks associated with radioactive leaks and accidents.
The pressure on the environment and human health from energy consumption can be diminished by decreasing energy consumption and switching to energy sources that have a lower impact on the environment and human health.While nuclear power produces less greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollution over the life cycle compared to conventional sources,A there is a risk of accidental radioactive releases, and highly radioactive waste (for which no generally acceptable disposal route has yet been established) is accumulating. A networked economy can work in ways that does not match our intuition; this is why many researchers fail to see understand the nature of the problem we are facing.
Our fragile economic and financial system must have solid confidence to facilitate the liquidity that is needed to maintain dispersed global production, distribution, and exchange. Personally I think we are done now and if people cultivated mine and other’s doomer views found all over the net all confidence would be lost. The increased penetration of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) does not reduce the dependency on imports, but helps in diversifying suppliers.
Increasing consumption of nuclear energy at the expense of fossil fuels would on the other hand contributes to reductions in CO2 emissions.Renewable energy consumption is a measure of the contribution from technologies that are, in general, more environmentally benign, as they produce no (or very little) net CO2 and usually significantly lower levels of other pollutants. If this happens, the exporting country is faced with another problem–laid-off workers without jobs. If this happens, the exporting country is faced with another problem–laid-off workers without jobs. Despite all the many signals of distress, even those during the near total collapse that occurred in the 2007-2008 timeframe, I never got the feeling that we were coming up on the end of the road.
But a couple of years ago it suddenly occurred to me that something dramatically bad was in the works, it was as much an intuitive feeling as it was an evaluation of fact.
Everything I’ve learned and experienced over the last two years of intense study has convinced me that we are on the very edge of dramatic times. Having an education in Public Relations and an intuitive sense of all the methods used to influence public opinion, I see a monumental effort by TPTB to keep the population pacified, because the truth were it widely known would lead to mass panic and the end of this world as we know it. So, like you, I monitor this and many other sites daily, every day, looking for signals that might give me a head start on battening down the hatches for the coming storm. I’m lucky to have a brother close by who is equally aware of these topics, and some friends who are starting to recognize how bad things are getting.



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