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Worldwide energy consumption grows by 53 percent between 2008 and 2035 in the Reference case, with much of the increase driven by strong economic growth in the developing nations especially China and India. Renewable energy is projected to be the fastest growing source of primary energy over the next 25 years, but fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy. Natural gas has the fastest growth rate among the fossil fuels over the 2008 to 2035 projection period. World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand.
From 2008 to 2035, total world energy consumption rises by an average annual 1.6 percent in the IEO2011 Reference case. Petroleum and other liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected higher oil prices erode their share of total energy use from 34 percent in 2008 to 29 percent in 2035. Projected petroleum consumption and prices are very sensitive to both supply and demand conditions.
World coal consumption increases from 139 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 209 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent in the IEO2011 Reference case. Electricity is the world's fastest-growing form of end-use energy consumption in the Reference case, as it has been for the past several decades. The transportation sector accounted for 27 percent of total world delivered energy consumption in 2008, and transportation energy use increases by 1.4 percent per year from 2008 to 2035.
The Black Tuesday on July 31st marked perhaps the greatest power outage in world history: the blackout occurred in 20 of India's 28 States and affected 3 of its 5 grids (Northern, Eastern and North-eastern). However, T&D losses and power theft still represent close to 20% of production, while capacity expansion falls systematically below the country's needs. Indeed, Tata and Adani have recently put on hold several GWs' worth of new coal-fired projects due to a lack of clarity for both coal supply and the regulatory environment around coal prices. India is turning progressively to imports to ensure its supply: with sky-rocketing coal imports, India joined the world's top 3 largest coal importers (India outranked Germany in 2006 and South Korea in 2011), and the share of imports in domestic consumption grew over the last ten years from 6% to 21% in 2011. This situation is a key challenge for a country with an expected economic growth of 7-8% over the next decade (source: IMF).
India is struggling to sort through a complicated situation mixing economic empowerment, access to energy, industrial policy and environment, as it moves towards its 12th Five-Year Plan (2012-2017) and beyond. Overall economic growth determines the extent of electricity demanded because of the all-pervasive use of electricity. Electricity is largely consumed by this sector for irrigation purposes, and for operation of electrical pump sets.


During FY11, the commercial sector accounted for around 7% of total electricity consumption.
T&D losses, distribution infrastructure, unaccountability in metering and billing, cross subsidies, etc. Though India is ranked among the world’s fastest growing coal miners, it has a long way to go. Regulatory Commissions) and the rationalisation of tariff structures, which have made capacity addition an easier task.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for world energy markets through 2035. The economies of China and India were among those least affected by the worldwide recession. Renewable energy consumption increases by 2.8 percent per year and the renewable share of total energy use increases from 10 percent in 2008 to 15 percent in 2035 in the Reference case. World natural gas consumption increases 1.6 percent per year, from 111 trillion cubic feet in 2008 to 169 trillion cubic feet in 2035. In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations drives the increase.
Higher economic growth in developing countries coupled with reduced supply from key exporting countries result in a High Oil Price case in which real oil prices exceed $169 per barrel by 2020 and approach $200 per barrel by 2035.
In the absence of policies or legislation that would limit the growth of coal use, China and, to a lesser extent, India and the other nations of non-OECD Asia consume coal in place of more expensive fuels.
Net electricity generation worldwide rises by 2.3 percent per year on average from 2008 to 2035. Much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia. With an estimated 600 million people without electricity, 50% of the population, this large-scale incident reveals the stress the Indian power system has been experiencing over the last decade. Power prices have been greatly subsidised for agricultural users and low-income households and tariffs have not increased significantly to cover for increased costs of fuels (and salaries) 1. The objectives fixed in the Five-Year Plans are rarely met: for the last three Plans, planned capacity fell short of estimated needs and the effective capacity installed dropped the realisation rate to 50%. Coal production expansion has failed to meet rising demand from the power sector, hampered by issues of bad domestic coal quality, limited coal washeries capacity, transportation infrastructure bottlenecks, large distances between production and consumption, and disputes between producers, IPPs and the Government over the regulation of coal prices amidst higher international prices.


In Indonesia, Australia and Africa, Indian companies are facing fierce competition with Chinese, Brazilian and other companies to ensure their coal supply. It is expected that the electricity demand will rise at an average rate of 5.5% over the next 20 years, which translates into a need of 420 GW of additional capacities for the power system, of which one third should be coal-fired plants - thus increasing coal demand for power by 50% to reach 760 kt in 2030 2.
The IEO2011 Reference case projection does not incorporate prospective legislation or policies that might affect energy markets. China alone, which only recently became the world's top energy consumer, is projected to use 68 percent more energy than the United States by 2035." said Acting EIA Administrator Howard Gruenspecht. They continue to lead world economic growth and energy demand growth in the Reference case.
Fossil fuels, however, continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide throughout the projection, and still account for 78 percent of world energy use in 2035 While the Reference case projections reflect current laws and policies as of the start of 2011, past experience suggests that renewable energy deployment is often significantly affected by policy changes.
Unconventional natural gas (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) supplies increase substantially in the IEO2011 Reference case—especially from the United States, but also from Canada and China.
Conversely, lower economic growth in developing countries coupled with increased supplies from key exporting countries result in a Low Oil Price case in which real oil prices fall to about $55 per barrel in 2015 and then gradually decline to $50 per barrel after 2030 where they remain through 2035.
China alone accounts for 76 percent of the projected net increase in world coal use, and India and the rest of non-OECD Asia account for another 19 percent of the increase. This issue coupled with high transmission and distribution losses and low power plant load factors, have left India's State Electricity Boards with a difficult financial situation for a long time. Presently, over half of the world coal trade occurs in the top 4 countries, all of which are in Asia. In 2008, China and India combined accounted for 21 percent of total world energy consumption. The State has been pro-active in implementing a liberalization policy since 1991, implementing laws on vertical unbundling, encouraging the creation of Independent Power Producers, lowering taxes to attract foreign investment and favouring "fast-track" generation projects. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 31 percent of world energy use in the IEO2011 Reference case (Figure 1).
This has led to significant changes in the power sector, with the emergence of several large IPPs in recent years, often linked to industrial groups: Tata, Reliance, JSW, GMR.
Delays are often due to long lead times and disputes over obtaining environmental clearances, but they are increasingly due to fuel shortages.



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