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China has the world's largest population, and in the 1970s managed to achieve one of the fastest fertility declines in human history. PRB demographer Kristin Bietsch calculated three scenarios of what population might look like in 2050 (see Figure 1). The high scenario (red line) is based on the idea that the total fertility rate (TFR) in China will increase to two children per woman in 2016 (a highly unlikely scenario given current desires for small families). A more realistic projection is represented by the green line, where the TFR would gradually increase to around two children in 2050—a similar-looking trajectory to our current projection of China through 2030. The bottom line: The difference in 2050 between the current projection and gradual increase scenario is 23 million people, less than 2 percent higher than PRB's projection under the one-child policy.
Figure 2 shows the age distribution in China for 2015 and 2050 if fertility increases immediately to two children per woman. 80% of road traffic accidents occur in middle-income countries, which have only 52% of registered vehicles.
The Spectrum Policy Modeling System consolidates previous models into an integrated package.
The Country Data Package is an optional download which includes the demographic data for all countries based on WPP 2012. It has been a long time since anything has been posted here, but it is because we are busy working on the Android version of CSEntry.
The first release will be targeted mostly at phone users, as it will be one-question-per-screen. Job Description: ICF has an opening for a Data Processing Specialist with the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) project.
The new version has a few new functions: dateadd, datevalid, onchangelanguage, seekmax, and seekmin. Dateadd and datevalid were both requested by users, and seekmax and seekmin will be very useful for batch editing applications. A number pad control has also been added, which is useful for CAPI applications run on tablets.
Download the new version here, and as always, you can access older versions on the Software page.
On another note, view this forum posting for information about an online CSPro e-Learning course offered by the Statistical Services Centre at the University of Reading. Closing in a few days is a job position for a data processing specialist for Timor-Leste’s 2015 population census. Oxford Policy Management is searching for a data processing consultant to work in Africa, Asia, and other locations. The Official Statistics portfolio supports the modernisation of national statistical offices and governments’ wider national statistical systems. The Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation is looking for a qualified candidate to develop a CSPro data entry system for a study in Kigali, Rwanda. Proposals for the position are due on 5 April, and the proposed start date for the short-term assignment is 6 May. The Foundation is looking for a candidate with several years experience working with CSPro. A cheat sheet detailing the CSPro language can now be found on the Reference page, or viewed directly here. View the contents of this blog by using the RSS feed or sign up for the CSPro News mailing list. The Spectrum suite of tools includes all of the following policy models in a single, user-friendly program. DemProj projects the population for an entire country or region by age and sex, based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. FamPlan projects family planning requirements needed to reach national goals for addressing unmet need or achieving desired fertility. A program to project the changes in child survival in accordance with changes in coverage of different child health interventions. AIM projects the consequences of the HIV epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV, new infections, and AIDS deaths by age and sex; as well as the new cases of tuberculosis and AIDS orphans.
RAPID projects the social and economic consequences of high fertility and rapid population growth for such sectors as labor, education, health, urbanization, and agriculture. TIME is a suite of TB analytic tools used for the epidemiological, impact and cost-effectiveness analysis and other rational steps of strategic TB policy and program design. Examine the impact of intervention scale-up on new infections, AIDS deaths, number on ART and total cost. RAPID (Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on Development) is a projection model that highlights the impact of rapid population growth (high fertility) on a countries ability to meet its desired social and economic development objectives. 1906: Availability of panchromatic black and white film and therefore high quality color separation color photography. PAINTING OF THE WEEK - Ruins of the Holyrood Chapel by Moonlight, oil on canvas, 1824, Louis Daguerre.
G+ #Read of the Day: The Daguerreotype - The daguerreotype, an early form of photograph, was invented by Louis Daguerre in the early 19th c.
The first photograph (1826) - Joseph Niepce, a French inventor and pioneer in photography, is generally credited with producing the first photograph. Easy Peasy Fact:Following Niepcea€™s experiments, in 1829 Louis Daguerre stepped up to make some improvements on a novel idea. The policy was previously relaxed January 2014, but in response to the country's aging population, the Chinese government has proposed an update allowing two children per couple.
The country's one-child population policy has resulted in a number of unique demographic events and transitions. The current projection (blue line) is PRB's projection under the old one-child policy for the population size of China. This high scenario would peak only about five years later than the current scenario, at around 1.46 billion. If population increases gradually according to this scenario, it would also peak around 2030 at 1.43 billion people. Even with this increase, the age structure of China will change dramatically in the next 35 years, with a more than doubling of the retired-age (65 and older) population, and even a decrease in the number of children (those under age 15).
DemProj projects the population for an entire country or region by age and sex, based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. FamPlan projects family planning requirements needed to reach national goals for addressing unmet need or achieving desired fertility.


AIM projects the consequences of the HIV epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV, new infections, and AIDS deaths by age and sex; as well as the new cases of tuberculosis and AIDS orphans. The Goals Model helps efforts to respond to the HIV epidemic by showing how the amount and allocation of funding is related to the achievement of national goals, such as the reduction of HIV prevalence and expansion of care and support. This file is considered optional since Spectrum will prompt the user to download data as needed when creating projections.
We have made good progress, and hopefully we can release an alpha version of this in a month or two. Census Bureau’s International Programs Center for Technical Assistance will conduct a CSPro workshop in Washington, DC from October 28 – November 8, 2013. In September there will be a workshop about Gender Statistics for Data Users (September 3 – October 4, 2013). This program, the Operator Statistics Viewer, is written in C#, and as always, the source code is available upon request. Apply for the position, funded by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) by visiting this link. To help national statistical offices achieve their objectives, our expertise includes institutional reform and modernisation of national statistical systems, survey design and implementation, statistical quality and international statistical standards, local and regional statistics, statistical capacity building, and statistical modelling.
Much of the work could be handled remotely, but one or two trips to Rwanda may be required. Census Bureau’s International Programs Center for Technical Assistance will conduct an Intermediate CSPro workshop in Washington, DC from May 20 – 31, 2013. A full set of demographic indicators can be displayed for up to 50 years into the future. It can be used to set realistic goals, to plan for the service expansion required to meet program objectives, and to evaluate alternative methods of achieving goals. AIM is used by UNAIDS to make the national and regional estimates it releases every two years. This program is used to raise policymakers' awareness of the importance of fertility and population growth as factors in social and economic development. Talbot was active from the mid-1830s, and sits alongside Louis Daguerre as one of the fathers of the medium. Niepcea€™s photograph shows a view from the Window at Le Gras, and it only took eight hours of exposure time!The history of photography has roots in remote antiquity with the discovery of the principle of the camera obscura and the observation that some substances are visibly altered by exposure to light. Again employing the use of solvents and metal plates as a canvas, Daguerre utilized a combination of silver and iodine to make a surface more sensitive to light, thereby taking less time to develop. It can be used to set realistic goals, to plan for the service expansion required to meet program objectives, and to evaluate alternative methods of achieving goals.
AIM is used by UNAIDS to make the national and regional estimates it releases every two years. This install file includes the program application and all necessary data except for the individual demographic country files.
The Country Data Package is useful should the user like to install all the country data during a single session or if a reliable Internet connection is not available during Spectrum usage. If you would like to be notified of the alpha release, please sign up on the beta software page.
As with the old Pocket PC version, you will design your application on the desktop and then deploy it to your Android device to run the program. To date, we have completed more than 300 surveys in more than 90 countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the former Soviet states.
This workshop, for beginning or intermediate users of CSPro, is entitled Data Processing Solutions Using CSPro.
Later that month there will be an Introduction to Survey Sampling workshop (September 30 – October 11, 2013). This workshop, for intermediate or advanced users of CSPro, will introduce features of the program that streamline the creation of dynamic and powerful applications. The program uses assumptions about the proximate determinants of fertility and the characteristics of the family planning program (method mix, source mix, discontinuation rates) to calculate the cost and the number of users and acceptors of different methods by source. Porta (1541-1615), a wise Neapolitan, was able to get the image of well-lighted objects through a small hole in one of the faces of a dark chamber; with a convergent lens over the enlarged hole, he noticed that the images got even clearer and sharper.
Though he is most famous for his contributions to photography, he was also an accomplished painter and a developer of the diorama theatre. As far as is known, nobody thought of bringing these two phenomena together to capture camera images in permanent form until around 1800, when Thomas Wedgwood made the first reliably documented although unsuccessful attempt. The program uses assumptions about the proximate determinants of fertility and the characteristics of the family planning program (method mix, source mix, discontinuation rates) to calculate the cost and the number of users and acceptors of different methods by source. This data can be downloaded directly from Spectrum (Internet connection required) when creating projections, or by downloading and installing the optional Country Data Package. Since the Demographic data does not normally change, installation of data will only need to occur once and will work with subsequent installed versions of Spectrum 5.x.
Features include an option to associate names with operator IDs, the ability to set targets and view progress towards those targets, and many ways to visualize the data from operator logs in tabular and graph form.
Participants will learn about ways to automate data processing tasks, how to design CAPI applications for enumeration on tablets, how to implement hotdecks for data editing, how to create advanced tables, and how to use CSPro’s web dissemination tools. Schulze mixes chalk, nitric acid, and silver in a flask; notices darkening on side of flask exposed to sunlight.
A daguerreotype, produced on a silver-plated copper sheet, produces a mirror image photograph of the exposed scene. A companion model, EasyProj, supplies the data needed to make a population projection from the estimates produced by the Population Division of the United Nations. The demographic data was removed from the general Spectrum 5.x install file in order to decrease the size of the install file. Participants will also learn from each other about how other organizations handle data processing tasks.
A companion model, EasyProj, supplies the data needed to make a population projection from the estimates produced by the Population Division of the United Nations. The alchemist Fabricio, more or less at the same period of time, observed that silver chloride was darkened by the action of light. Chemistry student Robert Cornelius was so fascinated by the chemical process involved in Daguerrea€™s work that he sought to make some improvements himself. It was only two hundred years later that the physicist Charles made the first photographic impression, by projecting the outlines of one of his pupils on a white paper sheet impregnated with silver chloride. It was commercially introduced in 1839, a date generally accepted as the birth year of practical photography.The metal-based daguerreotype process soon had some competition from the paper-based calotype negative and salt print processes invented by Henry Fox Talbot.


And in 1839 Cornelius shot a self-portrait daguerrotype that some historians believe was the first modern photograph of a man ever produced.
The photos were turned into lantern slides and projected in registration with the same color filters.
In 1802, Wedgwood reproduced transparent drawings on a surface sensitized by silver nitrate and exposed to light. Nicephore Niepce (1765-1833) had the idea of using as sensitive material the bitumen, which is altered and made insoluble by light, thus keeping the images obtained unaltered.
Long before the first photographs were made, Chinese philosopher Mo Ti and Greek mathematicians Aristotle and Euclid described a pinhole camera in the 5th and 4th centuries BCE.
He communicated his experiences to Daguerre (1787-1851) who noticed that a iodide-covered silver plate - thedaguerreotype -, by exposition to iodine fumes, was impressed by the action of light action, and that the almost invisible alteration could be developed with the exposition to mercury fumes. In the 6th century CE, Byzantine mathematician Anthemius of Tralles used a type of camera obscura in his experimentsIbn al-Haytham (Alhazen) (965 in Basra a€“ c. It was then fixed with a solution of potassium cyanide, which dissolves the unaltered iodine.The daguerreotype (1839) was the first practical solution for the problem of photography. In 1841, Claudet discovered quickening substances, thanks to which exposing times were shortened. More or less at the same time period, EnglishWilliam Henry Talbot substituted the steel daguerreotype with paper photographs (named calotype).
Wilhelm Homberg described how light darkened some chemicals (photochemical effect) in 1694. Niepce of Saint-Victor (1805-1870), Nicephorea€™s cousin, invented the photographic glass plate covered with a layer of albumin, sensitized by silver iodide. The novel Giphantie (by the French Tiphaigne de la Roche, 1729a€“74) described what could be interpreted as photography.Around the year 1800, Thomas Wedgwood made the first known attempt to capture the image in a camera obscura by means of a light-sensitive substance. Maddox and Benett, between 1871 and 1878, discovered the gelatine-bromide plate, as well as how to sensitize it. As with the bitumen process, the result appeared as a positive when it was suitably lit and viewed. A strong hot solution of common salt served to stabilize or fix the image by removing the remaining silver iodide.
On 7 January 1839, this first complete practical photographic process was announced at a meeting of the French Academy of Sciences, and the news quickly spread. At first, all details of the process were withheld and specimens were shown only at Daguerre's studio, under his close supervision, to Academy members and other distinguished guests. Paper with a coating of silver iodide was exposed in the camera and developed into a translucent negative image. Unlike a daguerreotype, which could only be copied by rephotographing it with a camera, a calotype negative could be used to make a large number of positive prints by simple contact printing.
The calotype had yet another distinction compared to other early photographic processes, in that the finished product lacked fine clarity due to its translucent paper negative. This was seen as a positive attribute for portraits because it softened the appearance of the human face. Talbot patented this process,[20] which greatly limited its adoption, and spent many years pressing lawsuits against alleged infringers. He attempted to enforce a very broad interpretation of his patent, earning himself the ill will of photographers who were using the related glass-based processes later introduced by other inventors, but he was eventually defeated.
Nonetheless, Talbot's developed-out silver halide negative process is the basic technology used by chemical film cameras today.
Hippolyte Bayard had also developed a method of photography but delayed announcing it, and so was not recognized as its inventor.In 1839, John Herschel made the first glass negative, but his process was difficult to reproduce.
The new formula was sold by the Platinotype Company in London as Sulpho-Pyrogallol Developer.Nineteenth-century experimentation with photographic processes frequently became proprietary.
This adaptation influenced the design of cameras for decades and is still found in use today in some professional cameras. Petersburg, Russia studio Levitsky would first propose the idea to artificially light subjects in a studio setting using electric lighting along with daylight. In 1884 George Eastman, of Rochester, New York, developed dry gel on paper, or film, to replace the photographic plate so that a photographer no longer needed to carry boxes of plates and toxic chemicals around.
Now anyone could take a photograph and leave the complex parts of the process to others, and photography became available for the mass-market in 1901 with the introduction of the Kodak Brownie.A practical means of color photography was sought from the very beginning. Results were demonstrated by Edmond Becquerel as early as 1848, but exposures lasting for hours or days were required and the captured colors were so light-sensitive they would only bear very brief inspection in dim light.The first durable color photograph was a set of three black-and-white photographs taken through red, green and blue color filters and shown superimposed by using three projectors with similar filters. It was taken by Thomas Sutton in 1861 for use in a lecture by the Scottish physicist James Clerk Maxwell, who had proposed the method in 1855.[27] The photographic emulsions then in use were insensitive to most of the spectrum, so the result was very imperfect and the demonstration was soon forgotten. Maxwell's method is now most widely known through the early 20th century work of Sergei Prokudin-Gorskii. Included were methods for viewing a set of three color-filtered black-and-white photographs in color without having to project them, and for using them to make full-color prints on paper.[28]The first widely used method of color photography was the Autochrome plate, commercially introduced in 1907. If the individual filter elements were small enough, the three primary colors would blend together in the eye and produce the same additive color synthesis as the filtered projection of three separate photographs. Autochrome plates had an integral mosaic filter layer composed of millions of dyed potato starch grains.
Reversal processing was used to develop each plate into a transparent positive that could be viewed directly or projected with an ordinary projector. The mosaic filter layer absorbed about 90 percent of the light passing through, so a long exposure was required and a bright projection or viewing light was desirable.
Competing screen plate products soon appeared and film-based versions were eventually made.
A complex processing operation produced complementary cyan, magenta and yellow dye images in those layers, resulting in a subtractive color image.
Kirsch at the National Institute of Standards and Technology developed a binary digital version of an existing technology, the wirephoto drum scanner, so that alphanumeric characters, diagrams, photographs and other graphics could be transferred into digital computer memory. The lab was working on the Picturephone and on the development of semiconductor bubble memory. The essence of the design was the ability to transfer charge along the surface of a semiconductor. Michael Tompsett from Bell Labs however, who discovered that the CCD could be used as an imaging sensor.



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