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Something that might make for an interesting discussion is with using composite profiles across multiple days, how far back to go, how can we quantify when market conditions have changed enough that past auction information for the same price area is no longer relevant.
Originally Posted by darthtrader » Also, I thought Ant said Dalton has a new book coming out next year.
The left hand side shows 4 day activity of markets auctioning below the current value area.
Also in Bracket 1, we have an area of confluence shown by the overlapping value low pivot line.
Single print price levels indicate swift price rejection due to the lack of time spent at that price level. Understanding what type or types of day the market is showing is important as one can design strategies around it. Key levels I will watch is the previous day high and single print starting level shown in the first chart. I am slightly bearish though due to the reaction of the Nikkei today breaking a very very key support level of 15,000. I think we are pretty limited software wise with MP because anyone who puts it out has to pay the monthly CBOT fee. With tradestation I still think the best option is to get ninjatrader which is free, feed TS data and then get the finalg version for $250 one time fee. Market Profile is one of the most powerful market analytical tools currently available for investors and traders. This course provides a comprehensive overview of Market Profile concepts and their application.
This course provides traders with an unmatched practical and insightful Market Profile Education. The course is designed and presented in a manner that simplifies the Market Profile structure and its elements. Many individual traders have yet to discover and utilize the power of Market Profile concepts and charts. Only a small percentage of individual Forex traders have discovered the analytical power of the profile. Forex is the world's largest and most liquid financial market, and Market Profile is our tool to trade it. Market Profile Charts and Concepts are a powerful analytical tool that can be applied to any electronically traded market.
Some traders mistakenly believe that since the Forex spot market is not traded on a central exchange, the Market Profile Concepts can't be applied to the Forex market.
In buying or selling any financial instrument, it is extremely helpful for a trader or investor to know and understand where value is in the market relative to the current market price.
Once a Forex trader discovers the power and benefits of understanding market value they will be amazed that they were ever able to trade without it.
The three-dimensional view of market action and the capability of organizing market data in a normal distribution pattern allows investors and traders to gain a tremendous insight into the market.
Any currency pair on the Forex spot market is continually moving between a state of balance and imbalance in the market. These important developments often create rewarding opportunities in the market and are not evident or identifiable on other types of charts. Selecting an appropriate location for a protective stop is often a challenging task for many Forex traders.
Unlike traditional technical analysis and charting techniques where only price movements are measured by using technical indicators, the Market Profile theories provide the trader with a wealth of information about the underlying structure and strength of the market.
Today's strategic planners, having created as much value as they could by cutting costs, are looking now to grow domestic markets, as well as build new markets and revenues in such countries as Brazil, China, India, Malaysia and Mexico.
Studies show that in most cases, being first to the market provides a significant and sustained market-share advantage over later entrants. Pioneers with a distinctive presence in the marketplace need to be in a position to react, or even better, anticipate potential entrants and increase the barriers to their entry. Whether a late entrant or a pioneer seeking to foil newcomers, it helps to have a thorough understanding of the entry and defensive strategies available, a good sense of timing and a game plan for decision-making.
Competitive strategies typically depend on the market environment and the positioning and product portfolio of the existing players.
Develop new channels of distribution to access new markets or better penetrate existing ones.
In addition to choosing the appropriate marketing strategy, it is crucial to determine the timing of the introduction of any new product.
2) the necessary marketplace education and testing forces the pioneer to spend heavily on advertising and promotion. Are there higher returns on market share and investments to offset the pioneer's increased costs and relatively higher risks? Does the pioneering advantage manifest itself in return-on-investment metrics apart from market share?
A recent analysis of the evolution of wireless markets in Europe indicates that first entrants are also market leaders in most countries.
In addition to coverage and related quality of service, another huge barrier to entry for new entrants is the issue of number portability. 2) A new technology may have changed the cost equation, so that a new entrant can offer similar or better service at a lower cost. 3) The new entrant may have developed a new way to access the market, with an innovative distribution strategy. 4) The latecomer may simply be pricing aggressively, targeting selected segments by taking advantage of the incumbent's tendency to average pricing across all segments. The pioneering advantage is also limited in a cluttered market: If there are many available brands, consumers react by becoming confused. Moving beyond such issues, what can later entrants do to overcome any inherent market-share disadvantage? An example is Orange, the late-entry cellular service provider in Britain, which successfully nudged aside the pioneers.
Later entrants can also succeed by attacking high-growth markets particularly when there is a significant shift in the industry.
Another strategic option for the later entrant is micro-segmenting the customer base -- that is, targeting high-value customers who are able and willing to pay a higher price for the product or service relative to the cost incurred in catering to that segment.
Innovators have also been successful in entering markets with a significantly better technology. Even as new entrants attempt to redefine the business or formulate niche strategies to attack profitable industries and market segments, pioneers can fight back to retain their competitive advantage. Pioneers can also attempt to lock up the key channels of distribution, making it difficult for new entrants to get access to the market. Finally, a responsive and flexible organization may be the most productive route, especially when the structure of an industry changes drastically or there is a seismic shift in the regulatory environment. The underlying parameters for all these strategies are that companies should be aware of the market dynamics and have an organization that is flexible with the right culture to adapt, not only reacting to potential competition but also proactively developing their strategies. An example of a good blocking strategy is Vodafone's decision to lower its prices in key market segments to match those of its new competitor, Orange, thereby reducing the price differential between the two companies.
Managers should have a feel for the marketplace, to correctly estimate the switching barriers for customers and set the price differential accordingly. Another example in the wireless industry is the case of cellular companies in the United States. Having thoroughly analyzed the various strategies adopted by successful pioneers and later entrants, we have developed a framework both can employ to formulate strategies for growth, penetration or share retention, as the case may be. The first component in our framework involves developing an understanding of the dynamics of the market. Several qualitative and quantitative tools are available to assist in evaluating these critical issues. The second component of the framework involves conducting an internal assessment of your company's capabilities and product offerings.
At the completion of external and internal assessment, a company is ready for the final component of the framework: the actual development of the product strategy.
Gurumurthy Kalyanaram, Gurumurthy Kalyanaram is the Director of Master's Programs in the School of Management at the University of Texas, Dallas.
A Not-So-Elementary Exploration of Brand Insights+b Trend Watch: What Keeps CEOs Up at Night? Articles published in strategy+business do not necessarily represent the views of the member firms of the PwC network. Also on the economic calendar today we have Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed Beige book at 2pm. Hypo 3 sellers push down through overnight low 4325.50 and continue lower to test the 4300 century mark before two way trade ensues. On the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am followed by a 52- and 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am. On the economic calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions at 11:30am. Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4242.50 and sustain trade above it setting up a secondary leg to target 4270 before two way trade ensues.
Also on the economic calendar today we have Personal Consumption Expenditure and the final February reading of U.
Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Index at 9am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm. Hypo 4 sellers move below 4166.50 and sustain trade below it setting up a liquidation move down to 4140 before two way trade ensues. Last Friday was a normal variation up day with a P-shaped structure, suggesting a short squeeze took place.
Hypo 3 gap and go higher.  Buyers take out overnight high 4220 and then 4230 early, sustaining trade above the latter level to set up a secondary leg up to 4239 before two way trade ensues. Hypo 4 strong buyers take out overnight high 4169.75 early on and sustain trade above 4177 setting up a move to target 4200.
Also on the economic calendar today we have Leading Indicators at 10am, oil inventories at 11am, and a 30-Year TIPS auction at 1pm.
Thus a downward bias may allow a trader to look at the 13500 level for any VSA or other setups.

Both upside and downside IB range extension occurs on a neutral day in which longer term traders are expressing conflicting views amongst each other. I tried to find every option available and those + esignal are the only real options but your going to have to pay for this service one way or another. It provides valuable market activity information that is not available on any other type of chart. It introduces traders and investors to the power of the profile and the many benefits that can be gained from it.
It includes a total of 16 Lessons (each lesson is an hour for a total of 16 hours of instruction) , 8 Quizzes, and 8 Training Activities. It breaks down market development into basic parts, thus making it easy for beginners and new traders to understand and interpret market action. This course is designed to offer Forex traders with an overview of the valuable information and the many benefits that can be gained through the use and application of profile charts.
Market profile charts are the only charts available that can help Forex traders identify when prices move far from value. Keppler, a Pioneer in the Development and Application of Forex Profile Strategies, has developed a set of unique and innovative trading strategies to capture lucrative opportunities in the Forex Market. The conceptual framework of the profile design allows for a comprehensive and basic analysis of the market without numerous technical indicators and complex tools. Market Profile makes it possible for a Forex trader to identify both long term and short term value in the market.
The profile makes it possible to monitor the balance points for the currency and transitions between balance and imbalance in the market as they occur. The profile shape and structure allow traders to identify and spot trading opportunities that are not apparent on any other chart.
Frequently, Forex traders are stopped out of a trade only to find the market turn and move in the direction of their trade after they have been stopped out. Using the power of the profile, a Forex trader can gain a much greater understanding of market activity and the market forces behind the activity. Still, later entrants can succeed by adopting distinctive positioning and marketing strategies. For example, a pioneer may be in a position to reduce its price and decrease the value of the business for a new entrant, or it can block entrance entirely by controlling key distribution channels.
As markets mature in the home base, companies traditionally look outside to more lucrative markets. This is especially true in high-tech industries, in which product life cycles are short and it is difficult for late entrants to catch up and extract reasonable returns. Companies such as the Hewlett-Packard Company and the 3M Company, which generate growth through innovation, garner more than 60 percent of their revenues from products introduced over the most recent three-year period.
A 1995 study by Gurumurthy Kalyanaram and others in Marketing Science suggests that the new entrant's forecasted market share divided by the first entrant's market share equals, very roughly, one divided by the square root of order of entry of the new entrant. Yes, after substantial research and development investments, being early in the market is rewarding.
Customers would have to get a new cellular number when they switch carriers since they cannot take the same phone number with them as is done in land line networks.
In some industries and some geographic areas, pioneers have lost market-share advantage relatively quickly. For a start, when consumer learning is limited, the pioneering advantage is likewise bound to be limited.
First, the later entrant should differentiate itself substantially in the minds of the consumers. At best, one study has found that the market-share advantage for the early entrants comes from higher trial penetration.
Orange entered the market almost 30 months after the first entrant, Vodafone, and nine months after One-2-One, and with technology similar to One-2-One's. What worked for Orange in Britain, for example, will not work for new entrants in Scandinavia. Such shifts can be due to changes in regulation, or technological breakthroughs that improve the product, or breakthroughs that improve the process of manufacturing and delivering the product.
For example, the competitive-access providers (now Competitive Local Exchange Carriers, or CLECS), in order to provide local telecommunications services, basically skimmed the best customers of the regional Bell operating companies by offering a lower price.
Usually, however, technological innovation gives a company an edge for only a time, since incumbents catch on fairly quickly. Pioneers can take advantage of this by using effective signaling mechanisms as a deterrent.
In several industries and countries, however, it is not possible to get exclusive distribution rights. In the telecommunications industry, for instance, the 1996 Telecommunications Act has fundamentally changed the rules of the game, leaving almost all the markets open for competition. While doing this, Vodafone kept its average price in the market constant and extracted more rent from customers who were not targeted by the competition. These companies have undertaken a suite of counterattacks, including innovative service packages and special deals on the equipment for one-year contracts, thereby increasing the switching barriers for the customers.
In the wireless industry, customers are repeat purchasers, since their contract terms typically last for only one year and the cost of handsets is dropping rapidly. Product or service development is an iterative process between developers and researchers, one involving marketplace feedback. Strategic elements here include segmentation, positioning and decisions on marketing instruments.
Reviews and mentions of publications, products, or services do not constitute endorsement or recommendation for purchase. I love Dalton's idea that volume slows price down, which makes perfect sense if your looking at volume by price. There was also fundamental reason behind this move due to the assassination of former Prime Minister Bhutto. Notice the IB range extension is equivalent both to the upside and downside with a close in the middle of the range. I know Darthtrader uses MarketDelta for his MP charts, but is there anything else that you would recommend? The course provides an opportunity to learn how to view and analyze the market using real time market data generated by market participants. Market Profile tools make it possible for traders to immediately track what is happening in the market as it happens. The course discusses how Market Profile charts organize market activity and allow us to identify points of control, areas of distribution, value areas, acceptance and rejection of price levels. Moreover, Market Profile tools can offer a significant edge and great benefits for the individual Forex trader. Only a small percentage of Forex traders have discovered the analytical power of the profile. While it is true that there is no central exchange for the Forex market, the profile provides a formidable and invaluable tool for the Forex trader. Once a trader understands and learns to use the profile they discover a new world in the Forex market. Market profile is the only charting technique that can actually identify value in the marketplace for any currency pair.
The support and resistance levels on the profile chart are derived based on actual market activity and value parameters. The profilea€™s development and path of movement immediately unveils the existence of a directional trend or a sideways market . In this course, Forex traders will have an opportunity to learn how to spot a selling or a buying tail, auction points, points of control, fair price, minus developments and ledges. The profile structure makes it possible for a Forex trader to select and base their protective stops on key structural elements in the profile. Sometimes the risk and the investment required to penetrate international markets may not be worth the return. In most cases, if you are entering second or later in such a market, you should do so immediately after the pioneer. If a product or service provides enough satisfaction, consumers do not want to risk switching to a new product. Research shows that the pioneers enjoy a higher return on investment in both consumer and industrial goods.
Also, a peculiarity of this industry is that the quality of service is primarily determined by coverage.
In general customers do not like to change their phone number, especially in Europe, where customers receive calls in their mobile phones. Such positioning can be accomplished through substantial changes in either the product or promotion strategies.
If the later entrant can generate greater trial market share, then its disadvantage can be overcome. A good example of this is the competition among the International Business Machines Corporation, Compaq Computer and Dell Computer in the personal-computer market. There, the incumbent's monopolies are not driven by profits from the wireless industries, and thus they price their wireless services below the average price for the rest of Europe.
The classic example is MCI's success in penetrating the long-distance market and winning a regulatory battle with the AT&T Corporation.
This was possible because the regional companies had adopted an average price scheme partly dictated by the Federal Communications Commission.
Given that this is the case, new entrants should support their innovations with effective positioning, appropriate pricing and aggressive advertising. For example, pioneers can cut price, signaling to potential new entrants that it is a low-cost industry and it will be difficult for them to survive.
Pioneers can also offer special types of enhanced customer service packages or reward programs to make it harder for key customers to switch.
This has forced both the regional Bell operating companies and the long-distance carriers such as AT&T and MCI to revise their strategies. This situation could enable a late entrant to compete effectively by developing a good network infrastructure and by gaining access to good distribution networks. Bass, the Bass model (1969, 1987), and the Booz-Allen & Hamilton model (1997) are highly useful for forecasting market size and growth.

Once a product is defined and the positioning determined, it is important to understand the economics of manufacturing. Its almost as if the market runs out of firepower to push through the value area if it takes extreme $TICK readings in order to get to the top. This course demonstrates how Market Profile concepts can easily be applied to Forex trading.
They are able to identify and capture many opportunities that are simply not visible on traditional charts.
As a result, these support and resistance levels are more easily and reliably identified by a Forex trader. When prices seek to find a new value area after each trend, the market develop around a fair price. Moreover, participants will be able to immediately see when prices rise above a value area high or drop below a value area low.
This allows the Forex trader to strategically and properly identify protective stop locations for each trade. Even though you have a huge advantage in being first, you can lose it in the blink of an eye over pricing or service or lagging technology.
Sometimes, however, they get complacent or are not in a position to cater to the growing or shifting demands of the marketplace.
Still, this strategy is likely to result in reduced margins for the new entrant compared with other players in the market, unless the new entrant's cost of production is relatively cheaper.
Many heavy equipment manufacturers are targeting newly emerging markets that will need tractors and cranes for building. Focusing on existing markets, where your company has a good understanding of the environment, can prove less risky and bring quicker successes.
For example, when picture phones were introduced in the late 1970's, the market did not respond because consumers could not find occasions to use the product.
For example, the Chrysler Corporation redefined perceptions of its minivans by introducing Caravan, a two-door van.
Finally, later entrants can position themselves as variety enhancers, rather than as replacements or substitutes for the pioneers. It has not only invested heavily in the network over the first two years of introduction, but also developed aggressive pricing strategies.
This is a significant barrier to entry for new players, especially since entering the industry requires a high capital investment.
Aging pioneers in other industries have also followed the strategy of attack as best defense, targeting potential new entrants' home bases -- be it geographic or product markets.
But as these companies, which offer a service similar to cellular but based on a different technology, build their networks and offer enhanced services, they will inevitably begin to attract cellular customers unless cellular companies can offer similar features in the long run.
This is evident from the fact that the incumbents in several countries have not been able to sustain their lead and the differences between early entrants and second entrants are decreasing rapidly. Competitive assessment on the other hand, is primarily done by conducting extensive secondary research on the key players.
In a competitive environment in which a technology edge is short-lived, try to think beyond simply making a good product in an economical way. Again, there are some important tools available to facilitate scenario planning and decision making. This shift in market balance on the 5th day of trading is significant with A period leaving a single print tail. Forex traders will have an opportunity to learn how to spot selling and buying tails, key auction levels, points of control, fair market price, market value parameters and areas of underdevelopment.
Forex traders will have an opportunity to learn how to spot selling and buying tails, key auction levels, points of control, fair market price, market value parameters and areas of underdevelopment.
The profile provides an organized structure and a logical basis for understanding and interpreting Forex market developments. When there is an increase or decrease in buying, prices move out of equilibrium, prices break away from equilibrium and trend higher or lower until a new balance is achieved. The appropriate location of a protective stop reduces potential losses and enhances the risk management process for each trade. If you are a pioneer, what can you do to prevent share erosion when a new player enters the market? New entrants can take advantage of gaps in the offerings of these aging pioneers, or find innovative ways to market their product or service. The enhanced product can compete directly with existing products, or it can be positioned to attract a smaller segment of the existing market.
Faced with intense competition and maturation in the local markets in the United States, regional Bell operating companies such as BellSouth are expanding into emerging markets such as Brazil. This can be accomplished by repositioning the product or service through marketing, advertising, packaging and so on. The figures are consistent with the results in Exhibit I since the second entrant has about 70 percent of the pioneer's market share. The Ford Corporation's Windstar, expected to be a marquee van, substantially lost its glamour to the Caravan. Orange seized a third of Britain's total market's first quarter 1996 growth by offering about a 30 percent savings to end users, compared with Vodafone and Cellnet.
So the key source of differentiation for new entrants in such situations is going to be creative marketing, innovative advertising, new service packages and superior customer service. As Fuji penetrated the photographic film market in the United States, for example, the Eastman Kodak Company's strategy was to attack Fuji in its home market.
For example, in Britain, Vodafone had an 18-month advantage over its prime competitor, Cellnet, with similar technology.
Our experience indicates that more than 60 percent of relevant information can be found in public sources and that the challenge lies in the gathering and synthesis of this information. Companies need to evaluate and develop non-product-related sources of differentiation, such as customer service, innovative ways to access end-users, creative marketing partnerships with other services such as frequent flyer programs, and so on. Ragu Gurumurthy, Ragu Gurumurthy is a principal in the communications, media and technology practice at Booz-Allen & Hamilton.
Ill get into identifying trade location with market profile then going into VSA for entry decision making.
The course presents actual examples of Forex trades using profile concepts and basic technical tools.
The whole process of price action is driven by the laws of supply and demand.This dynamic is clearly visible on the profile chart making it possible to forecast range extensions and potential price targets with remarkable accuracy. In addition, the improved product or service can sometimes attract new customers that are not the current target for the existing product or service. For instance, Dell Computer went after the mass market by having customers place their orders directly with Dell by phone, fax or computer.
Whenever consumers think of photocopying for example, Xerox is the name that jumps to mind.
So new entrants have to invest significantly to achieve this same coverage -- an effort that is capital intensive and time consuming. When the General Motors Corporation decided to reposition its Oldsmobile, it changed not only its product but also its advertising copy. The pricing strategy was effective enough to compensate for Orange's relatively poor network coverage.
This is especially true since the incumbents offer a relatively poor level of customer service, a concern to end users. Compaq reduced the cost by changing the manufacturing process and having superior logistics.
So, it is important for pioneers to understand their end-user segments and to adopt a differential pricing scheme to extract optimal rent from each of the segments. Three years after the launch of Cellnet, however, the difference in market share in annual net additions between Vodafone and Cellnet is only 11 percent.
The ability to identify when prices rise above a value area high or drop below a value area low can provide significant trading opportunities in the Forex market.
For example: potential satellite-based wireless service providers are currently offering a new feature called global coverage.
This direct channel revolutionized the method of selling computers to the end users, including corporate clients.
Limited demonstration of usage or prototypes is possible in software products, and test usage is possible in automobiles. Dell, in addition to using an efficient manufacturing process and superb logistics, invented the mail-order or direct channel to access end users, who by now were comfortable with personal computer technology. Vodafone has been able to retain its lead in the recent past only by fighting back efficiently on the customer-service dimension and by developing creative service-bundling strategies. Subscribers are just not willing to go through another learning curve, when there is already a robust supplier of service.
Also, distributing the product through new channels such as direct marketing (think of the Lands' End catalogue or the Mary Kay cosmetics parties) or a home-shopping-network channel would place the product in the hands of more consumers. This course is designed to offer Forex traders an opportunity to understand and learn how to apply the Profile Forex Advantage. Another frequent constraint is access to property to build the towers, since the first entrants have already seized the ideal sites for coverage. This, in turn, may require the later entrant to invest larger amounts in network infrastructure to gain similar coverage. Other useful approaches for product strategy are the lead-user technology proposed by Eric Von Hippel, and the "wargaming" simulation analysis methodology developed by Booz-Allen.
Given these hurdles, it can take two to three years before a challenger achieves coverage competitive with the incumbent's.
Thus, based on the market, internal and product strategic assessments, an optimal strategy can be formulated.

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