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09.02.2016
It may be hard to believe, but before the end of this century, 70 percent of today’s occupations will likewise be replaced by automation.
Baxter is an early example of a new class of industrial robots created to work alongside humans.
We have preconceptions about how an intelligent robot should look and act, and these can blind us to what is already happening around us.
First, it can look around and indicate where it is looking by shifting the cartoon eyes on its head. That may be true of making stuff, but a lot of jobs left in the world for humans are service jobs. The rows indicate whether robots will take over existing jobs or make new ones, and the columns indicate whether these jobs seem (at first) like jobs for humans or for machines. And yet for more complicated chores, we still tend to believe computers and robots can’t be trusted.
While the displacement of formerly human jobs gets all the headlines, the greatest benefits bestowed by robots and automation come from their occupation of jobs we are unable to do. Before we invented automobiles, air-conditioning, flatscreen video displays, and animated cartoons, no one living in ancient Rome wished they could watch cartoons while riding to Athens in climate-controlled comfort. To reiterate, the bulk of new tasks created by automation are tasks only other automation can handle. It is a safe bet that the highest-earning professions in the year 2050 will depend on automations and machines that have not been invented yet. This postindustrial economy will keep expanding, even though most of the work is done by bots, because part of your task tomorrow will be to find, make, and complete new things to do, new things that will later become repetitive jobs for the robots.
The real revolution erupts when everyone has personal workbots, the descendants of Baxter, at their beck and call. Everyone will have access to a personal robot, but simply owning one will not guarantee success.
Kevin Kelly (kk.org) is senior maverick of Wired and the author, most recently, of What Technology Wants. Where we love is home - home that our feet may leave, but not our hearts.Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr. When it comes to developing character strength, inner security and unique personal and interpersonal talents and skills in a child, no institution can or ever will compare with, or effectively substitute for, the home's potential for positive influence. The more one does and sees and feels, the more one is able to do, and the more genuine may be one's appreciation of fundamental things like home, and love, and understanding companionship.
The ache for home lives in all of us, the safe place where we can go as we are and not be questioned. Be grateful for the home you have, knowing that at this moment, all you have is all you need. We know that when people are safe in their homes, they are free to pursue their dream for a brighter economic future for themselves and their families. I believe that being successful means having a balance of success stories across the many areas of your life. Setting up user accounts is easy, but you must remember to set up your own computer administrator account first. On the Pick an account type page, click the type of account you want to assign, and then click Create Account.
This description and procedure applies only to users of Windows XP Home Edition and to users of Windows XP Professional configured to link the computer to a workgroup. After robots finish replacing assembly line workers, they will replace the workers in warehouses. To demand that artificial intelligence be humanlike is the same flawed logic as demanding that artificial flying be birdlike, with flapping wings. Designed by Rodney Brooks, the former MIT professor who invented the best-selling Roomba vacuum cleaner and its descendants, Baxter is an early example of a new class of industrial robots created to work alongside humans.
Priced at $22,000, it’s in a different league compared with the $500,000 total bill of its predecessors.
In 1895 the building was a manufacturing marvel in the very center of the new manufacturing world. I ask Brooks to walk with me through a local McDonald’s and point out the jobs that his kind of robots can replace. Humans can weave cotton cloth with great effort, but automated looms make perfect cloth, by the mile, for a few cents. A trivial example: Humans have trouble making a single brass screw unassisted, but automation can produce a thousand exact ones per hour.
We don’t have the attention span to inspect every square millimeter of every CAT scan looking for cancer cells.


This is the greatest genius of the robot takeover: With the assistance of robots and computerized intelligence, we already can do things we never imagined doing 150 years ago. Two hundred years ago not a single citizen of Shanghai would have told you that they would buy a tiny slab that allowed them to talk to faraway friends before they would buy indoor plumbing. Now that we have search engines like Google, we set the servant upon a thousand new errands. The one thing humans can do that robots can’t (at least for a long while) is to decide what it is that humans want to do. It led a greater percentage of the population to decide that humans were meant to be ballerinas, full-time musicians, mathematicians, athletes, fashion designers, yoga masters, fan-fiction authors, and folks with one-of-a kind titles on their business cards.
In the coming years robot-driven cars and trucks will become ubiquitous; this automation will spawn the new human occupation of trip optimizer, a person who tweaks the traffic system for optimal energy and time usage. Rather, success will go to those who innovate in the organization, optimization, and customization of the process of getting work done with bots and machines. OK, it can have my old boring job, because it’s obvious that was not a job that humans were meant to do. I really miss being away from home, being in my own bed, seeing my animals and siblings, having my moms cookies. You can't truly be considered successful in your business life if your home life is in shambles.
Speedy bots able to lift 150 pounds all day long will retrieve boxes, sort them, and load them onto trucks.
To train the bot you simply grab its arms and guide them in the correct motions and sequence.
It is as if those established robots, with their batch-mode programming, are the mainframe computers of the robot world, and Baxter is the first PC robot. The only reason to buy handmade cloth today is because you want the imperfections humans introduce. We don’t have the millisecond reflexes needed to inflate molten glass into the shape of a bottle. We can remove a tumor in our gut through our navel, make a talking-picture video of our wedding, drive a cart on Mars, print a pattern on fabric that a friend mailed to us through the air. Crafty AIs embedded in first-person-shooter games have given millions of teenage boys the urge, the need, to become professional game designers—a dream that no boy in Victorian times ever had. This is not a trivial trick; our desires are inspired by our previous inventions, making this a circular question.
With the help of our machines, we could take up these roles; but of course, over time, the machines will do these as well. Your fleet of worker bots do all the weeding, pest control, and harvesting of produce, as directed by an overseer bot, embodied by a mesh of probes in the soil.
We can’t imagine our children becoming appliance designers, making custom batches of liquid-nitrogen dessert machines to sell to the millionaires in China. Geographical clusters of production will matter, not for any differential in labor costs but because of the differential in human expertise.
You'll find what you need to furnish it - memory, friends you can trust, love of learning, and other such things. The names of the user accounts you set up appear listed on the Welcome screen and individually on each account holder’s Start menu. Today automation has eliminated all but 1 percent of their jobs, replacing them (and their work animals) with machines. This upheaval is being led by a second wave of automation, one that is centered on artificial cognition, cheap sensors, machine learning, and distributed smarts. Fruit and vegetable picking will continue to be robotized until no humans pick outside of specialty farms. Any job dealing with reams of paperwork will be taken over by bots, including much of medicine. To see how far artificial intelligence has penetrated our lives, we need to shed the idea that they will be humanlike. Previous industrial robots couldn’t do this, which means that working robots have to be physically segregated from humans. It is likely to be dismissed as a hobbyist toy, missing key features like sub-millimeter precision, and not serious enough.
We no longer value irregularities while traveling 70 miles per hour, though—so the fewer humans who touch our car as it is being made, the better.
Much tax preparation has gone to computers, as well as routine x-ray analysis and pretrial evidence-gathering—all once done by highly paid smart people. Likewise no human, indeed no group of humans, no matter their education, can quickly search through all the web pages in the world to uncover the one page revealing the price of eggs in Katmandu yesterday.


We don’t have an infallible memory to keep track of every pitch in Major League Baseball and calculate the probability of the next pitch in real time.
We are doing, and are sometimes paid for doing, a million new activities that would have dazzled and shocked the farmers of 1850. When automatic self-tracking of all your activities becomes the normal thing to do, a new breed of professional analysts will arise to help you make sense of the data.
One day your task might be to research which variety of heirloom tomato to plant; the next day it might be to update your custom labels.
I got a kitten about a year ago and now Im going on the road so I wont see him for a while.
Pharmacies will feature a single pill-dispensing robot in the back while the pharmacists focus on patient consulting.
Even those areas of medicine not defined by paperwork, such as surgery, are becoming increasingly robotic. The typical factory robot is imprisoned within a chain-link fence or caged in a glass case.
But as with the PC, and unlike the mainframe, the user can interact with it directly, immediately, without waiting for experts to mediate—and use it for nonserious, even frivolous things. Now the capabilities of Baxter and the approaching cascade of superior robot workers spur Brooks to speculate on how these robots will shift manufacturing in a disruption greater than the last revolution.
Every time you click on the search button you are employing a robot to do something we as a species are unable to do alone. Each successful bit of automation generates new occupations—occupations we would not have fantasized about without the prompting of the automation.
And of course we will need a whole army of robot nannies, dedicated to keeping your personal bots up and running.
Our human assignment will be to keep making jobs for robots—and that is a task that will never be finished.
Next, the more dexterous chores of cleaning in offices and schools will be taken over by late-night robots, starting with easy-to-do floors and windows and eventually getting to toilets.
It’s cheap enough that small-time manufacturers can afford one to package up their wares or custom paint their product or run their 3-D printing machine. Looking out his office window at the former industrial neighborhood, he says, “Right now we think of manufacturing as happening in China. Rather they are dreams that are created chiefly by the capabilities of the machines that can do them.
Technology is indiscriminate this way, piling up possibilities and options for both humans and machines. Those who once farmed were now manning the legions of factories that churned out farm equipment, cars, and other industrial products. The highway legs of long-haul trucking routes will be driven by robots embedded in truck cabs. This isolation prevents such robots from working in a small shop, where isolation is not practical.
Previous workbots required highly educated engineers and crack programmers to write thousands of lines of code (and then debug them) in order to instruct the robot in the simplest change of task. But as manufacturing costs sink because of robots, the costs of transportation become a far greater factor than the cost of production. Optimally, workers should be able to get materials to and from the robot or to tweak its controls by hand throughout the workday; isolation makes that difficult.
You might no longer think of it as a job, at least at first, because anything that seems like drudgery will be done by robots. Today, the vast majority of us are doing jobs that no farmer from the 1800s could have imagined.
Turns out the real cost of the typical industrial robot is not its hardware but its operation. Using force-feedback technology to feel if it is colliding with a person or another bot, it is courteous. Industrial robots cost $100,000-plus to purchase but can require four times that amount over a lifespan to program, train, and maintain. The costs pile up until the average lifetime bill for an industrial robot is half a million dollars or more.



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