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This chapter examines the range of human consequences of, and responses to, global environmental change.
This complex causal structure makes projecting the human consequences of global change a trickier task than is sometimes imagined. Building these scenarios, identifying the most probable ones, and assessing their outcomes would be an overwhelming analytic task. In our judgment, understanding human responses is key to understanding the human consequences of global change.
People and social institutions may respond to environmental change as it is experienced (post facto) or as it is anticipated.
Changes in society that incidentally affect human responses to global change are important both directly and because they could become tomorrow's deliberate responses. Response to global change may be coordinated, as through the policies of governments or trade associations aimed at eliciting the same action from many actors, or uncoordinated, as with independent actions of households or small firms.
Figure 4-1 elaborates on Figure 2-2 to show how human action can intervene at any point in the cycle of interaction between human and environmental systems to protect against threats to what humans value.
The term mitigation is generally used to describe interventions on the human causes side of the diagram. For example, global warming is the direct result of a change in the earth's radiative balance; humans can mitigate global warming by any actions that slow the rate of change or limit the ultimate amount of change in the radiative balance. Mitigation of ozone depletion might, in principle, involve release of substances that interact chemically with CFCs, producing compounds with benign effects on the stratospheric ozone layer (type E), limiting emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other gases that deplete ozone (type P), or developing alternative methods of cooling buildings that do not rely on CFCs (type H). Another type of adaptive response is to prevent or compensate for losses of welfare that would otherwise result from global change. Yet another type of response, sometimes called anticipatory adaptation, aims to improve the robustness of social systems, so that an unchecked environmental change would produce less reduction of values than would otherwise be the case.
All social systems are vulnerable to environmental change, and modern industrial societies have different vulnerabilities from earlier social forms. An important consequence of global environmental change is conflict, because global change affects what humans value, and different people value different things.
One of the most heated policy debates about responses to a global change is between advocates of immediate efforts to mitigate global warming and those who would postpone such action. In one view, the wise course of action on global warming is to conduct research on the phenomenon but not to take action to slow or mitigate it until the phenomenon is better understood.
Social science can help illuminate the nature of environmental controversies and evaluate ways of managing them. Social scientists specializing in conflict have developed generalizations that might be more thoroughly applied to environmental conflict. More research seems warranted to use existing knowledge about conflict to illuminate the ways social conflict may result from global environmental change.
Research on Conflict Resolution and Management Social scientists have also identified a number of approaches for resolving or managing policy disputes, some of which are beginning to be studied in the context of environmental conflicts. The nature of technological conflicts suggests, however, that over the long term, management is a more realistic goal than stable resolution.
I hope you're having a wonderful day, that you're refreshed & full of energy after your little angel slept all night & now getting on with whatever it is that you really want to be doing!
If (by some miracle) the baby didn't wake up then chances are you woke up and then lay there worrying for ages about the fact that the baby hadn't woken up! November 4 By: BroncommentWhat do dancing around the kitchen like a crazy person, pounding the pavement in your running shoes, swimming 20 laps or busting out 10 press ups all have in common?
When babies and children move they learn about themselves and the world around them and the more they learn, the more they want to move.
She’s playing on her floor under the play gym and decides to reach out and bat at the bright shiny mirror dangling just above her head. Seeing her favourite teddy just out of reach gives her the momentum to roll over onto her tummy as she happily grabs it.
October 19 By: BroncommentAn easy way to build more tummy time into your baby's day is to vary the way you carry him or her.
If your baby is unsure of movement or being tummy down, you can use your arm to angle him a bit more so that his back is closer to your tummy and he is lying more on his side. As he gets stronger you can decrease the angle so that he is properly tummy done and you can also give less support to his head as he gets stronger and more able to hold it up on his own. By being in a tummy down position your baby is able to practice using the muscles at the back of his body which are really important for helping him to lift his head up, sit with a straight back, crawl and eventually walk.
October 11 By: BroncommentHaving a baby has to be one of  the most exciting, wonderful and life - enhancing, yet terrifying things to do. There are enough parenting books (to fill a library) with advice about everything to do with raising the “perfect” child.
Never before experienced tiredness, hormones playing havoc with your emotions together with the well-meaning opinions and ‘what I did with my baby’ suggestions, mean it's easy to become confused, frustrated or upset. If your baby doesn’t react the way that the book, relative or health visitor says he should, it can often be easier to give up and avoid that activity for good.
Tummy time is one of the activities that is often avoided because it can seem like it’s just too difficult to get right. I'm Bron, an experienced children's physiotherapist & the sugar-addicted mum to 2 crazy - lovely little girls.
I'm passionate about helping parents & caregivers understand how their kids develop & how to help their little one grow & learn, focusing on their baby's unique needs.
AARP Massachusetts is working with Generations Incorporated [2], proud affiliate of AARP Experience Corps [3]SM, to give AARP members the chance to get involved in a special intergenerational mentoring program.  Generations Incorporated, a highly regarded 24 year-old nonprofit organization in Boston, will match you with a child who needs help to develop his or her literacy skills. Telling the time involves a combination of many different skills and concepts; from spatial reasoning to mathematics, it can be a difficult task for any child to master.
For the slightly older child, the Shape Sorting Clock is a slightly more suitable colourful and interactive model. If you want to make more of a game of telling the time, then Little Labsa€™ Time Game is the one for you. If you manage this site and have a question about why the site is not available, please contact us directly. Help your child to be responsible for his own actions and be able to offer a humble apology when needed.
Kinsights provides parents with a safe place to seek answers to their questions while also helping them track their childa€™s health information. In consequence, people have migrated or changed their ways of living as polar ice advanced and retreated, endured crop failures or altered their crops when temperature and rainfall patterns changed, and made numerous other adjustments in individual and collective behavior. We begin by developing the concept of human consequences and showing why, to understand them, it is critical to understand the variety of human responses to global change. One way in which the actions that cause global change are different from most of these is that the effects take decades to centuries to be realized. It is misleading to picture human impacts as if global change were like a meteorite striking an inert planet, because social systems are always changing and are capable of anticipation. Assume that four sets of scenarios are developed for the futures of the natural environment, social and economic organization, values, and policies.
Rather than trying to set a research agenda for that task, we undertake in this chapter a less demanding but still very difficult task: to focus on human responses to global change broadly conceived.
We do not mean to downplay the importance of certain kinds of research that do not focus explicitly on responses. We consider the following analytic distinctions useful for thinking about the range of responses available. For instance, people can build dikes to keep out rising seas or reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate global warming.
For example, gasoline taxes, which were not initiated with the global environment as a consideration, could be increased to cut CO2 emissions. Both types of response can be either anticipatory or post facto; both can affect global change either deliberately or incidentally. Mitigation includes all actions that prevent, limit, delay, or slow the rate of undesired impacts by acting directly or indirectly on environmental systems. Such actions are sometimes generically called adaptation, but there are important distinctions among them. This debate arose within the committee, even though we were not charged with recommending strategies for response to global change. The nature and extent of global warming in the future is highly uncertain because of incomplete knowledge of the relevant properties of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and other relevant systems.
One pits Third World countries against the developed countries that are now becoming concerned with limiting use of fossil fuels and restricting the felling of tropical forests. True, some of the disagreements might fade with better knowledge about the global environment and the likely effects of different feasible responses.
This research would investigate the ways environmental changes may affect organized social groups and their resource bases and would hypothesize links between those effects and conflict.

Relatively little is known about the structure of particular conflicts about global change at the local, national, and international levels or about which means will be most effective in dealing with them. In your dreams. And my wish for all of us parents holding it together with caffeine and chocolate. I'm too worried that if I get up and go to check, then they really will wake up so I lie there thinking about everything else and getting annoyed that I'm wasting precious sleep time by not being able to sleep! If you find yourself on the living room floor at 8.30 in the morning after a night of getting up every hour or so to feed the baby, change the baby, just check the baby is still breathing and now you’re surrounded by baby stuff plus one crying baby and not a clue what to do next, remember you are not alone. Just place one arm down the front of your baby with his head resting on your arm (easier to look at the picture than try to describe!) Hold him close to start with as this will make him feel safe and secure.
It can quickly become overwhelming (especially as you will never have time to read them all).
Luckily, there are a number of toys available that are designed to make the process of learning to tell the time a bit easier for both parent and child. This board game incorporates all the basic lessons and skills of telling the time, both for analogue and digital clocks. Until very recently, people have responded to global phenomena as if they were local, have not organized their responses as government policies, and have not been able to respond by deliberately altering the course of the global changes themselves. We then offer a framework for thinking about human responses and discuss the pivotal role of conflict. This fact causes many concerned people to consider taking action now to protect the values of those who might be affected by global environmental change in years to come.
So, for example, an estimate of the number of homes that would be inundated by a one-meter rise in sea level and the associated loss of life and property may be useful for alerting decision makers to potentially important issues, but it should not be taken as a prediction, because humans always react. Joining together all combinations of one scenario from each set, and adding assumptions about people's immediate responses, would generate an extensive set of grand scenarios. We do not discuss ways to improve forecasts of the state of the natural environment; that topic is outside the range of human dimensions.
Policy makers and others are now faced with a variety of options, some of which involve anticipatory action and some of which depend on awaiting the experience of global change. Human actions can also affect human responses to global change incidentally to their intended purposes. Studies of the incidental effects of such actions might inform decision makers about what could happen without deliberate intervention and about which present policies might make societies more robust in the face of global change.
Moreover, coordinated and uncoordinated responses can be connected to each other, in that coordinated actions by governments and industries can create new options for uncoordinated actors, prohibit responses, or raise or lower their costs. They can intervene in the proximate causes (type P), by regulating automobile use or engine design to cut carbon dioxide emissions or limiting the use of certain nitrogen fertilizers to reduce nitrous oxide emissions.
One type of response, which can be called blocking, prevents undesired proximate effects of environmental systems on what humans value.
It can be distinguished, at least in theory, from type H mitigation in that it does not necessarily alter the driving forces of global change. Although these complex sociotechnical systems contain great flexibility through the operation of global markets, they may have vulnerabilities that reveal themselves in the face of the changes that these systems have helped create. The far side of vulnerability is also little studied: When a system fails to resist environmental pressure, under what conditions does it return to its previous state? It is wasteful for society to expend resources to prevent changes that will not occur anyway. Human systems can adjust to global climate changes much faster than they are likely to occur. It makes no sense to act like the generals who built the Maginot Line for the wrong war or to construct dikes for cities whose populations will have moved or dams to water crops that will be grown elsewhere. Further research may identify more effective and less costly interventions than those now available.
Actions that can be postponed will be less burdensome because of continuing economic progress. It is in the nature of exponential growth processes that the earlier the growth rate decreases, the greater the final effect. Mitigation in the face of possibly catastrophic outcomes is like taking out insurance against flood and fire.
Humans are now conducting large-scale uncontrolled experiments on the global environment by changing the face of the earth and the flows of critical materials at unprecedented rates. The discount-rate argument is specious in the general case because the costs and benefits of postponing action are not always commensurable. A good example is investments in energy efficiency that provide an excellent return on investment even with narrow economic calculations. The Third World position, of course, is that other countries used fossil fuels and undeveloped frontiers for their economic development, and fairness dictates that the poorer nations now have their turn. As it became clear that expected global warming over the next 50 years could not cause the breakup of the West Antarctic icecap, the flood-prevention rationale for slowing greenhouse gas emissions became considerably weaker.
And even when new knowledge reduces uncertainty, controversies persist because not only facts, but also important interests and values, are at stake. Defining an environmental conflict as either one of understanding or one of interests and values affects which groups and arguments are considered legitimate in policy debates (Dietz et al., 1989). A first step is to construct an analytical framework for identifying the possible routes from particular environmental changes to particular types of conflict. This work suggests that institutions responsible for decisions about global change will also have to manage conflict. Therefore, we recommend increased empirical research, including both field studies and laboratory-simulation studies, to clarify the sources and structures of particular environmental conflicts and to test the efficacy of alternative techniques for their resolution and institutions for their management.
However, if you manage to snag a decent piece of equipment, you may be able to muster interest in even the most disinterested of time-tellers. Ita€™s up to your child to sort the hours so they fit into the correct places on the clocka€™s face. Thata€™s not to mention hourglasses and sundials, which while not essentials, are certainly nice additions for the more ambitious parent! Children have to work out the time on the analogue clock, before the owla€™s eyes open to reveal the answer in numbers. The next section examines three cases that illustrate many of the major factors influencing the human consequences of global change.
But because of uncertainty about how global environmental systems work, and because the people affected will probably live in circumstances very much different from those of today and may have different values, it is hard to know how present-day actions will affect them. Before the sea level rises, people may migrate, build dikes, or buy insurance, and the society and economy may have changed so that people's immediate responses--and therefore the costs of global change--may be different from what they would be in the present.
The human consequences of global change could then be defined as the difference between the state of humanity at the end of one grand scenario and the state of humanity at the end of a base case or reference scenario with a different natural-environment component. Neither do we devote much attention to improving forecasts of social and economic organization or of human values, even though these topics clearly belong to the social sciences and are critical to understanding the effects of global change. The impact-assessment tradition involves projecting the human consequences of a range of natural-environment scenarios under given assumptions about human response. For example, European settlement of the Americas gave Europeans and, later, others access to a wider variety of food crops, making human survival less dependent, at least in principle, on a small number of staples that might be vulnerable to altered growing conditions caused by environmental change. It may involve direct interventions in the environment (type E in the figure) to counteract the effects of other human actions, direct interventions in the proximate human causes (type P), and interventions in the human systems (type H) that drive global change, intended to have an indirect or downstream effect on the proximate causes. They can intervene in human systems (type H) and indirectly control the proximate causes, by investing in research on renewable energy technologies to replace fossil fuel or providing tax incentives for more compact settlements to lower demand for transportation.
Examples include evacuation from areas stricken with flood or drought, food shipments or financial assistance to those remaining in such areas, and development of synthetic substitutes for products previously obtained from extinct species.
For instance, modern societies have become highly dependent on fossil fuels and vulnerable to a serious disruption of supply or distribution systems. They may express a desire--or even claim a right--to influence the choices of people or governments continents away.
The projected doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will take place about 80 years from now. Technological and social changes often eliminate problems without any specific mitigation efforts by changing the offending technology or making it obsolete.
For example, it has recently been suggested that adding iron to the oceans to fertilize phytoplankton that would absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere may be a way to address the greenhouse effect (Martin et al., 1990). If people living in the 1890s had invested in preventing today's environmental problems, their expense on our behalf would probably have been made on the wrong problems, and it would have been an inequitable transfer of resources from a poorer generation to a richer one. Bringing down the birth rate in India to two children per couple in 1995 rather than in 2005 can make a difference of 300 million people by the time the Indian population stabilizes (Meadows, 19851.
By the time it becomes clear that a response is needed, it may be too late to prevent catastrophe if the change is proceeding rapidly. It is prudent to limit the pace and extent of such experiments because of the likelihood of unanticipated consequences.
Some important and meaningful tradeoffs can be made on economic grounds, for instance, between investing in renewable energy development and in directly limiting the burning of fossil fuels.

Such actions can achieve the benefits of mitigation at no extra cost, while providing other benefits.
Many analysts believe that if large-scale climate change results from human activities, the poorer countries are likely to suffer most because they lack resources they could use to adapt. A response such as dike building seems much more appropriate when the sea threatens only a few areas. Informed people disagree because the remaining uncertainty leaves room for judgment, because they may assume different scenarios about the future of society, and because an outcome that harms what one person values may enhance what another values. These institutions will need to provide accurate information, but should not expect information to resolve conflict. A combination of robust, clunky build, bright colours and fun noises, Tick Tock Musical Clock plays music, makes sounds and has twistable parts for a baby to play with. Theya€™ll learn which hour goes where and once complete, you can use the colourful minute and hour hands. Alongside a helpful booklet with step-by-step guides to a€?telling the timea€™, this board game is the complete package.
This is a fun, interactive way to test what theya€™ve learnt and most importantly of all, can be used while theya€™re on their own. The following sections describe the human systems that are affected by or respond to global change, and how they interrelate.
By this definition, a particular change in the natural environment has different consequences depending on the scenarios assumed for society, values, and responses.
We bypass these issues because the need for improved social, economic, and political forecasting is generic in the social sciences, and addressing this broad need would take us far beyond our charge to focus on human-environment interactions.
The tradition of post hoc case analysis involves assessing the actual human outcomes after past environmental changes land given the responses that actually occurred), in the hope of drawing more general conclusions. World markets have subsequently reduced the number of major staple foods so that, in practice, people may eat no larger a variety of foods than before (Plotkin, 1988). If global climate change produces sufficient warming and drying (drought) on a regional scale, it may threaten the region's crops; development and adoption of drought-resistant crops or crop strains can break the connection between environmental change (drought) and famine by preventing crop failure.
Farmers, regions, and countries that rely on a range of crops with different requirements for growth may or may not produce less greenhouse or ozone-depleting gases than monoculturists.
They also support much larger and denser populations than ever before; such populations may be vulnerable to ecological changes affecting the viability of their food supplies. And the people or countries subjected to those claims may resist, especially when they feel that changing their behavior will mean suffering. By contrast, financial markets adjust in minutes, administered-market prices in weeks, labor markets in years, and the economic long run is usually reckoned at no more than two decades.
For example, boilers no longer explode on trains because they no longer use steam engines; horses are no longer the main polluters of urban streets. That proposal, whatever its ultimate feasibility or desirability (Lloyd, 1991), demonstrates that improved understanding of biogeochemical systems might generate promising new proposals for mitigating global change. It probably makes no more sense for the current generation to sacrifice to benefit a future, even wealthier generation.
To achieve the same effect by starting later would impose greater restrictions on the people living at that time.
Even if catastrophe is unlikely, mitigation that slows the rate of change makes it more likely that adjustments can be made in time. If species are valued for themselves, their loss is irretrievable; even if they are valued only for what benefits they may have for humanity, species loss may be irretrievable. Like natural mutations, most of these experiments are probably destined to fail, and there is only one global environment to experiment on.
And if it became clear what each policy option--at the local, national, and international levels--would accomplish if enacted, some of them could easily be rejected. Case analyses of past social conflicts can be used to assess hypotheses drawn from such analytic frameworks. The institutions will need to make a place for the stakeholders to be represented from the earliest stages of the decision process, ensure openness in processes of policy decision, include mechanisms for the main actors to have access to relevant information from sources they trust, and use the conflicting perspectives and interpretations of current knowledge and uncertainty to inform the ongoing debate (National Research Council, 1989b; Stern, 1991). Ita€™s sure to become one of your childa€™s favourite toys and, as they grow, youa€™ll be able to use it to introduce time-telling into everyday play. Since the owl tells them the right answer each time, ita€™s a great way to get them to practice telling the time without mum or dad there to push them along. We conclude by offering some general principles for research and some research implications. We offer only limited discussion of how future global change might proximally affect what humans value, because the variety of possible global changes and the uncertainty about the effects of each make it far too difficult to go into detail. Research in these traditions, combined with analysis of human response, can offer valuable insights into the human consequences of global change. High taxes on gasoline in Europe and Japan, enacted for reasons unrelated to the global environment, encouraged development and purchase of small, fuel-efficient automobiles that incidentally slow the pace of global warming. Similarly, loss of stratospheric ozone threatens light-skinned humans with skin cancer, through exposure to ultraviolet radiation; avoidance of extreme exposure to sun and application of sunscreens help prevent cancer, although they do not mitigate the destruction of the ozone layer.
But polycultures are more robust in the face of drought, acid deposition, and ozone depletion. The further global change proceeds, the more likely it seems that it will be a source of conflict, including international conflict, over who has a right to influence the activities implicated as causes, who will pay the costs of responding, and how disputes will be settled.
The implication for action is that what individuals and organizations do on their own in anticipating climate change may be sufficiently successful that organized, governmental responses will be superfluous. Concern about the greenhouse effects of fossil fuel burning will prove premature if development of fusion or solar energy technology can replace most fossil fuel use over the next 50 years. Improved understanding of social systems has reasonable potential to discover other classes of effective response.
It is therefore easier to mitigate the effects of exponential growth the sooner the effort is made. This is clearly the case for nonhuman organisms, such as tree species that can adjust to climatic change by migrating, as seedlings move to more favorable locations. Other environmental values, such as loss of the life-supporting capacity of wetlands or large bodies of water, may also be irretrievable; often we do not know until the values are lost. As the extent of human intervention in the global environment continues to increase, so does the strength of this argument. If current economic activity destroys the life-support systems on which human life depends, what investment at compound interest could ever recoup this cost? Instead, we review basic knowledge about how human systems respond to external stresses, in the context of discussing human responses.
By bringing about technological change, these taxes also incidentally have helped make it easier for all countries--even those without high gasoline taxes or companies that produce fuel-efficient automobiles--to respond to the challenge of global warming with improved energy efficiency . Tropical deforestation threatens species with extinction by eliminating their habitats; creation of forest preserves would provide many species sufficient habitat to survive, while doing little to slow net deforestation. The impact of climate change will reach people through slow price increases for the factors of production; in reasonably well-functioning markets, economic actors adapt readily to such changes. It assumes that expenditures made now could otherwise be invested at compound interest in improvements in human well-being. Such species have a maximum rate of migration, so can adjust to climatic change below that rate. The argument supports mitigation efforts that slow ongoing human interventions in the environment, but generally not those that would stop greenhouse warming by new interventions in the global environment.
Economic arguments also cannot deal with some things--including the balance of nature--on which people place intrinsic or spiritual value. In short, the debates are not only about the workings of human and environmental systems, but also about political and economic interests, conflicting values and faiths, differing assumptions about the future, and different judgments about resiliency in the face of the unexpected. Similarly, families and communities that have both agricultural and nonagricultural income are harmed less by the same threats than purely agricultural groups.
They invent industrial processes that economize on scarce inputs, find substitutes, purchase energy-efficient equipment when energy prices are rising, and so forth. If the growth rate for such investment exceeds the average rate at which environmental problems develop, people will be better off in the future if they do not spend on mitigation now. To the extent people want to preserve such values, mitigation is the only acceptable approach. In the past, such adjustments have contributed to human progress, and there is every reason to expect that pattern to continue.
Moreover, economic accountings systematically undervalue things--such as genetic resources--for which there are few property rights or for which economic value is only potential.

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