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21.10.2013
How Do I change my Name on Facebook – Before sometimes back it was not possible to change name on Facebook once you have created while registration but now Facebook has made big changes to user account settings and allow their users to change name on Facebook with their nickname or whatever. I personally created a Facebook page at the end or last year and created a name with my blog name but after sometimes I realize that it was tough to be connected with visitors with blog name or the name which was not for human i mean Howtoblogz but at that time changing your name on Facebook was not possible. Normally people knows each other with their real name or nick name but sometimes we accidentally update wrong name while registration on such websites. If you are changing anything about your name you will need to go through the following steps to first change your name on you social security card. The social security lady told me that if in a year or two I am tired of having 2 last names I can change it to either one. I had my paperwork filled out to do that, but the ss lady convinced me to keep Smith Dorobek as 2 last names! I changed my last name and was excited for it, I love having a unique last name and letting go of my past. Thanks for sharing this, I got remarried 7 months ago and finally got all my work accounts updated just yesterday. What I ultimately learned out of the whole ordeal was to name my kids the name I wanted them to go by as a first name and when they get married they will have an easier time with getting things how they want them to be. I did the same as a lot of other commenters… made my maiden name my middle name and took his last name. I will admit it will be so strange to write my new last name for a while, but I feel it shows my commitment to him and the marriage. Also, I totally didn't know about all of the info about traveling with a child who has a different last name than you… so interesting! I started my first student teaching position right after we got back from our honeymoon, so it was a great time to switch.
Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed (or to completely turn that feature off). While the RCP scenarios do appear to account for some of these effects by estimating very little increase in total radiative forcing from 2000 through 2011, the average CMIP5-simulated surface temperatures nevertheless continue to rise over this period (Figure 1). Figure 2: 2007 IPCC report model ensemble mean (black) and 95% individual model run envelope (grey) vs. Essentially Christy is focusing on the black line in Figure 2 while ignoring the grey model envelope. Ultimately while Christy infers that the discrepancy between the data and average model run over the past decade indicates that climate sensitivity is low, in reality it more likely indicates that we are in the midst of a 'hiatus decade' where heat is funneled into the deeper oceans where it is poised to come back and haunt us.
Although the two show very similar rates of near-surface warming, Christy pooh-poohed the accuracy of the surface temperature record and played up the accuracy of his own UAH TLT record. Christy adds that using the same thermometer, on the same spacecraft, adds to measurement accuracy.
All in all, it is entirely plausible that there are remaining biases in the UAH data which  Christy and co. Despite the premise of the article - that global warming can't be blamed for short-term temperature changes - Christy nevertheless loses focus on long-term global warming and emphasizes local temperature changes.
Figure 5: 1970-1990 aerosol loading of the atmosphere over the lower 48 United States and estimated associated surface air temperature change. Figure 6: Observed total surface temperature change over the lower 48 United States from 1930 to 1990.
To summarize, in this interview Christy has exaggerated the discrepancy between model averages and data, failed to explore the many potential reasons behind that short-term discrepancy, failed to consider the envelope of model runs, neglected the many 'fingerprints' of human-caused global warming, ignored the vast and continued heating of the oceans and planet as a whole, and focused on short-term temperature changes without examining the causes of those changes or putting them in a global context. Unfortunately when we look at the totality of the evidence for human-caused global warming and associated future impacts, the big picture is not nearly so rosy as the one Christy's selective vision paints. Despite its title 'poised to come back and haunt us' does not describe the heat coming back, which is correct; It doesn't. As far as I can see, tying any single weather event to global warming is a bit like tying an individual smoker's lung cancer to his or her smoking habit - you can't really do it.
Likewise, I expect the global warming signal in the weather - the loading of dice, or the training of the boxer, so to speak - becomes clear when one reviews aggregates of increasingly large weather events. Indeed, if I am not mistaken that is the sort of thing Hansen et al 2011 (reviewed on Skeptical Science here) or the Cuomo & Rahmstorf 2012 paper (press release republished here) set out to quantify.
One of the co-authors is a known AGW denier, so I have a strong feeling this is a case of "lies, damn lies, and statistics".
I can't access the full paper (behind a paywall), but the language in the press release appears to be a lot stronger than the language in the paper abstract. So I suspect in the first place that McKitrick is pulling a "Forbes" and overstating the findings of the paper in the press release. Second, if McKitrick's assertion is that climatologists do not account for land-use changes in either modelling or teasing out different forcings from the empirical data, it appears he is incorrect: from this rebuttal on Skeptical Science we are linked to NASA GISS summary of radiative forcings which quite obviously takes land-use changes into account. To be fair, it doesn't follow that newer GCMs do a great, or even a good, job of accounting for land-use changes.
If memory serves the IPCC also has a summary table of radiative forcings, including land-use changes.
The first place I would look is the sign of the socio-economic influence on local temperature.
I don't have a background in statistics, but I'm sure someone who does (and can access the full paper) can easily find any flaws, trickery, and obfuscation therein. I read the U of Guelph press release on the McKittrick paper, and I have to say it made me laugh. Just look at how succesful "simple sconomic models" have been in predicting what they are supposed to predict - the economy. What is it going to take before you guys finish your scientific mental masturbation and finally figure out that you need to get mean? We believe Earth and its ecosystems—created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence —are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. We believe abundant, affordable energy is indispensable to human flourishing, particularly to societies which are rising out of abject poverty and the high rates of disease and premature death that accompany it.
We believe mandatory reductions in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, achievable mainly by greatly reduced use of fossil fuels, will greatly increase the price of energy and harm economies. We believe such policies will harm the poor more than others because the poor spend a higher percentage of their income on energy and desperately need economic growth to rise out of poverty and overcome its miseries. We deny that Earth and its ecosystems are the fragile and unstable products of chance, and particularly that Earth’s climate system is vulnerable to dangerous alteration because of minuscule changes in atmospheric chemistry. We deny that alternative, renewable fuels can, with present or near-term technology, replace fossil and nuclear fuels, either wholly or in significant part, to provide the abundant, affordable energy necessary to sustain prosperous economies or overcome poverty. We deny that such policies, which amount to a regressive tax, comply with the Biblical requirement of protecting the poor from harm and oppression.


I do not consider it an ad homenim attack when someone publicly declares that his mind is made up, and he cannot be confused by the facts. Dana, I notice that you use Gavin Schmidt's RC data for you comparison instead of the official AR4 chart. I have deleted the FAR, SAR and TAR graphic from Figure TS.26 in Figure 1 because they make the diagram more difficult to understand and because they are already presented elsewhere in AR4.
Despite items (1) and (2) above, there is very good agreement between the smoothed data in TS.26 and the adjusted HadCRUT3 data presented in Figure 1, particularly for the 1995-2005 period. It should be noted that AR4 uses a 13-point filter to smooth the data whereas HadCRUT uses a 21-point filter but these filters are stated by AR4 to give similar results.
The smoothed curve is significantly below the estimates for the A2, A1B and B1 emissions scenarios. The emissions scenarios and their corresponding temperature outcomes are clearly shown in the AR4 chart. The RC chart shows real world temperatures compared with predictions from models that are an "ensemble of opportunity".
I suggest that Figure TS.26 from AR4 is useful for comparing real world temperature data with the relevant emissions scenarios. If you mean figure 2, I should point out that the CMIP5 model runs are publicly available and it is straightforward to download them and recreate the plot and find that the conclusions are exactly as Gavin suggests. Now if you feel that the AR4 diagram tells a different story then there are two possibilities (i) The IPCC have made a serious error in analysing the output of their GCM runs or (ii) perhaps there is some subtlety that explains the apparent difference between the two diagrams that you do not understand. I tell my students that science is best peformed the way a chess player plays chess, you don't play the move that maximises your immediate gain, you play the move that mimises your opponents maximum advantage.
I'd be happy to answer any questions you have about Figure 2, or at least my version of it (which is essentially identical). At the risk of drifting off-topic, but in response to the above reference to McKitrick, Steve Mosher has recently been putting the boot in to Ol' Ross over at Curry's.
We see this sort of post written by you often when the cherry picking , distortions and misrepresentations of fake skeptics are exposed.
So before this thread goes too far off topic by addressing your "suggestions", how about you please start a constructive dialogue by directly speaking to Christy's misrepresentations, cherry picking and fallacious claims outlined in the main post?
It takes a bit of a mind warp, but as Dr Trenberth pointed out to me, if the physics underlying climate change is as solid as we believe it to be, and the evidence is as solid as it seems, then there is nothing in the world which can properly be interpreted in the absence of the fact of climate change. If the physics implying climate change are wrong, then there should be many other experimental and engineering things we see and do which also don't work. A climate denier does more than deny climate: The denier is claiming physics really doesn't know what it is doing.
It would be a basic violation of physical law if dumping this amount of carbon into the atmosphere did NOT cause increase in energy. All I was stating was that this is hard to show, statistically speaking, at the level of individual weather events, for the same reason that it's hard (perhaps not even possible) to show a causal chain between tobacco smoking and lung cancer incidence when examining individual patients in isolation. Of course, elsewhere on this site caerbannog has shown that with a tiny handful of weather stations one can produce a temperature series much like the global GISS series, so linking AGW with individual weather events may not be nearly as difficult as I imagine. Climate without global warming and the anthropogenic forcing as seen in the data is like biology without evolution - nothing makes sense without that key piece. Regarding your, "I would be happy to answer any questions about Figure 2." That's very kind of you and I would be pleased if you would answer one, which is more of a request than a question. Posting the data for your version of Figure 2 on the SkS resource library would be very useful.
I also concur that Figures 2 and TS.26 both tell the same overall story, namely, real-world temperatures are following the 2-sigma levels from the model ensemble. Figure 2 hides the 2-sigma trend in real-world temperatures in a mass of grey, whereas the TS.26 shows this discrepancy very clearly.
There is little need for me to criticise Christy, plenty of people on this website are well able to do that.
The mass of grey in figure 2 is the 2-sigma region, I cannot see how much more clearly it could be depicted than that. No, if you want to determine if there is a model-observation discrepancy you need to look at the data itself.
The observations are currently between the 1-sigma and 2-sigma boiundaries (actually more or less half way). Note that in 1998 the observations were skirting the other side of the 2-sigma region even more closely. While the observations are nearish the 2-sigma region, that doesn't mean that this is statistically surprising in any way. This is essentially an ad-hominem, questioning the source of some information rather than the content.
Would it make any difference if we used the version of the diagram that I created from the same model runs? The loose way in which you treat facts if they can be distorted to appear to support your position is very disturbing. Long back as an upright teenager, I had made a decision to never change my name after I got married.
By now ya'll already know that I am back in school and that homework has become a big part of my life. This has been one of my favorite linkups that I am involved in mostly because it involves marriage and relationships. Bring this form and your original or certified copy of your marriage license to your local social security office.
You can find more on the wedding after math here: thank you cards, changing your last name, and the super simple wedding scrapbook. I loved starting a new family with him, and for me personally, that meant me taking his family name. I think after 3 years the passport is the only thing I still need to change.The bank always messes it up. I will be teaching my girls to keep their own names or do what you did if marrying a trade down last name – or trade it if they want and they think they are trading up. Being a bit of a feminist too I just, to me it's romantic, I want us to have the same surname and I want our children to have the same name as me too. I am changing my last name, it means a LOT to him and honestly its something that I will cherish. His parents are divorced and remarried (dad is now divorced again) and mine have been married for 35 years going on 36… together for 40. For me, its how I was raised so its the norm for me, however I know a lot of married women that kept their last name.


I think that when the time comes for me to get married, I will try to make my maiden name a second middle name, or even have two last names.
Coming from divored parents it's confusing for the kids in school To have different last names than their parents, mine was simple, I love my family but I never liked my last name and I thought it was ugly, and I really liked my husbands name so I totally dropped it! Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp.
I think a small correction to this article (erase 'where it remains only temporarily,' would help prevent a misleading concept getting established.
If more growth leads to lower temperatures, then he may have discovered that aerosol emissions have a local impact, but are (AFAIK) modelled as a global term in climate models.
The entire paper is accessible for me using that link, though I now realize it's because I'm accessing the URL from a university (so anyone else in an academic setting should be able to access it as well; it appears to auto-detect if your IP is from a subscriber institution).
With present technologies, fossil and nuclear fuels are indispensable if energy is to be abundant and affordable. Reducing greenhouse gases cannot achieve significant reductions in future global temperatures, and the costs of the policies would far exceed the benefits. Therefore, I include the AR4 TS.26 chart below in order to compare Gavin's diagram with actual global temperatures and the discrepancy highlighted by Christy. Furthermore, this curve is below the error bars for these scenarios, yet Gavin shows this data to be well within his error bands. Scenarios A2, A1B and B1 are included in the AR4 chart – scenario A1B is the business-as-usual scenario. Consequently, Gavin Schmidt states, "Thus while they do span a large range of possible situations, the average of these simulations is not 'truth" [My emphasis]. To the contrary, Gavin uses a chart which compares real world temperature data with average model data for which he states does not represent "truth" I suggest that this is not much of a comparison. It is evident that Christy is correct in highlighting a possible discrepancy and there is certainly a discrepancy between the data presented by you and that presented in the official AR4 charts. Indeed, the idea of trying to "prove climate change" or attribute this or that phenomenon to climate change kind of misses the point.
If climate drives weather (which I conclude it does) and the climate is changing, it follows that every weather event will be affected by the climate change. Once again this tends to hide the discrepancy between real-world temperatures and model projections.
This scenario should be shown in any projections diagram because it is a very useful benchmark for comparing the accuracy of the projections.
Once again this tends to hide the discrepancy between real-world temperatures and model projections". I simply liked it too much.When A and I were getting married, we never discussed about it because we both knew how important my name was to me!
From what I gather, there are 3 main camps on the issue: take his name, hyphenate names, or keep your last name. Obviously you don’t want to make brand hew accounts with your new name because then you would loose all of your previous miles. My husband thinks it’s so dumb and tedious, but I love keeping every part of my identity.
Now, if my maiden name had been special in any way I might have had to improvise along the lines of what you did. Also, on my dad's side of the family, out of him and his 4 siblings, only my dad and my Uncle Mike are the guys.
I felt that if I would have kept my last name, it would be like I was not fully committed to the marriage. There is no convincing scientific evidence that human contribution to greenhouse gases is causing dangerous global warming.
Having the numerical data in an easily accessible form (Excel or csv) would allow easy cross-checking for errors, etc.
Please note that AR4 Figure TS.26 and my version of it in Figure 1 clearly show the error bars.
But I also moved countries within a month of getting married, so in the UK a lot of my bank etc that are still there are in my surname and probably will be for some time. I was happy and she didn't feel like I was just throwing away something that was meaningful to her {really, how meaningful can Marie with no family connection be?}. My lady said I could do whatever I wanted too… she told me I could add another middle name if I wanted! So if you have not changed your name then change it now and update your Facebook account settings. My adjusted HadCRUT3 data points are typically higher than those presented in AR4 Figure TS.26. He thought I wrote it mistakenly out of habit, and when I asserted it certainly was not, tried to talk me out of it, offered a new form and when I still didn’t buzz, looked pissed. Since then, I have lost count of how many raised eyebrows and wounded egos my not changing my last name has caused. Even though actually it was just because I liked my name very much and being super lazy tried to avoid all the extra work of visiting the passport office, bank, post office, changing the official transcripts and emails and I don’t even know what else, time again it was imposed upon me that it was the deed of a terribly stupid and headstrong feminist who has no real notion of what feminism is and tries to defy every social norm. Oh, and don't get me started on how hard it was to convince the nurse who checked me in for an emergency c-section that I really did legally have two middle names.
Those initial hours of laziness from not having to run around to change my name were replaced by anxiety of meeting new people in the next get-together. And the questions always followed in the lines of –Each family is identified by a common name. It’s like you are deliberately trying to set yourself apart from the family!If we need a common name to identify our family why not combine both names? Maybe our children will use both names.Is your husband okay with it?Why wouldn’t he be?
Defying male ego – the fragile inflated thing that breaks and bursts at the slightest nudge.
Really?For a time I used to worry about - after making so much progress socially, economically and politically why must a woman still be subjected to such a sexist and outdated custom to make decisions when she gets married? It’s about our lives, as husband and wife together and everything should be about how we build it.



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