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04.04.2014
Today I tried a split test during a Lean Change workshop to see which canvas they liked working with. One of the models that is the underlying inspiration to Lean Change is Kotter’s 8-Step change model. Once I started taking a more organic approach to create a transformation or change plan, I found that right type of canvas had a way of presenting itself. As a hint, if the people you’re talking to have a background in Lean or understand Lean better, starting with an A3 or a Toyota Kata improvement canvas might be a better option.
The next release of the book is going to have many more examples of canvases as well as some other goodies you can only find out about by subscribing for updates from Happy Melly Express! Jason LittleAuthor, Lean Change Management at LeanintuitI began my career as a web developer when Cold Fusion roamed the earth.
In 2008 I attended an experiential learning conference (AYE) about how people experience change and since then, I’ve been writing, and speaking, all over the world about helping organizations discover more effective practices for managing organizational change. The image in the post is one that a previous client designed which is the one that I used with this new client.
Latest PostsSuccessful Agile Transformation through Community Building on April 15, 2016 Alternatives to Agile Scaling Frameworks on March 29, 2016Scaling Agile is a hot topic nowadays…well, most of the early adopters in Agile have already moved on from this but many organizations in the late majority are looking to scaling frameworks to help them be more Agile. Removing the Mumbo-Jumbo from Change Management on March 21, 2016A couple of weeks ago Thomas Cagley interviewed me for his SPaMCAST podcast.
How do we know that recent climate change is attributable to human activities rather than natural causes?
The process starts when short wave radiation, emitted from the sun, penetrates the Earth’s atmosphere and arrives at its surface. Water vapour, Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and Ozone are the main naturally occurring GHGs. In addition to warming of the Earth's surface, there has been an increase in heatwaves, warming of deep oceans, fewer frosts, retreat of glaciers and sea ice and a rise in sea level during the 20th century of approximately 17 cm.
Throughout history, the Earth has experienced cold and warm periods, including ice ages and interglacial periods (warm periods).
Complex natural fluctuations still affect the Earth's surface temperature and climate over long timescales. The current global concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (approaching 380 parts per million) are the highest in the last 650,000 years.
The present atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has not been exceeded for the past 650,000 years, and possibly not for 20 million years. However, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, some 250 years ago, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have increased dramatically. The observed changes in climate, especially temperature increases since about 1970, cannot be explained solely by natural causes such as solar activity. When only natural factors, such as volcanic aerosols and solar activity, are included in computer model simulations of the climate in the 20th century, the simulations do not explain the observed warming in the second half of the century. Carbon, in various forms, continuously circulates between the living world, the atmosphere, oceans and the Earth's crust. Plants grow by absorbing carbon dioxide from the air or water and converting it to plant tissue through photosynthesis. Each year human activity adds several billions of tonnes of carbon in the form of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. It only takes a small change in the amount of carbon entering the atmosphere to upset the balance. Proof that more carbon dioxide is being added to the atmosphere than removed is the fact that concentrations of the gas continue to rise.
During the last ice age, which was at its maximum about 70,000 years ago, surface temperatures were on average about 5°C lower than today, and much colder in the polar regions.
More fires and droughts are expected in some regions of the world and more intense rainfall and resultant flooding in other areas.
Thermometers have recorded air temperature at weather stations or surface seawater temperature from ships for many decades, with almost global coverage extending back to 1861. Computer-based climate models use mathematical formulae to represent the important physical and chemical processes that drive the world's climate. Simulations that include estimates of natural and human influences can reproduce the observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century, including the climate change that has occurred during the past 50 years.
Climate models are good at simulating most climatic variables that are needed for studying global and continental climate change.
Our climate is the result of the interaction of the Sun's radiation with the atmosphere, oceans, polar ice and the land. Economists and other experts have developed a number of scenarios or possibilities for how the world might develop over the next century based on a set of assumptions, such as how fast population might increase and how quickly renewable energy sources might replace fossil fuels. The challenge facing us now is to determine how much we need to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions to minimise the risk of dangerous climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report says that sea level is likely to rise by an additional 18 to 59 cm by the year 2100, but this does not include possible changes in big ice sheets such as Greenland and the Antarctic that could lead to more rapid sea level rise.
As the Earth's surface warms, the oceans slowly absorb heat and expand, causing the sea level to rise.
Once carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere, it stays there for between 50 and 200 years. The level of action required to address the problem depends on the degree of climate change we are prepared to accept. During the 20th century, the climatic influence of natural factors probably increased (a warming effect) up to about 1950 due to a period of low volcanism and a small rise in solar radiation.


More heatwaves could result in heat stress and heat-related deaths in humans and livestock, and damage to crops. Fewer cold and frosty days will reduce cold stress and cold-related deaths in humans and livestock, and reduce frost damage, but may extend the range of pests and diseases. More intense and sporadic rainfall will increase flooding and associated loss of life, property and economic productivity.
More frequent or intense droughts will increase loss of crops, livestock, fisheries and wildlife, and decrease river flows and water quality. Changes in rainfall patterns and reduced soil moisture could reduce water supplies for agriculture, domestic and industrial uses, energy generation and biodiversity.
In 2002 the UK Climate Impacts Programme provided climate change prediction data at a 50km grid resolution, which have been used to identify the expected changes in Torbay’s climate. In Torbay the average annual temperature will be up to 4°C higher by 2080 than it was in 1990. If we take immediate effective action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the impending impacts of climate change upon society and the natural environment can be reduced. Large volcanic eruptions can blast huge amounts of sulphur dioxide into the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere).
Conversion of sulphur dioxide to sulphuric acid aerosol in the stratosphere takes some months, so maximum cooling occurs up to a year after the eruption.
When Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in 1991 it blasted up to 26 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a variation in normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. During the El Niño phase of ENSO the Pacific trade winds and tropical currents weaken, and the warm water in the western Pacific is displaced to the central Pacific. In the opposite phase of ENSO, La Niña, the ocean surface in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean cools. Recognising the problem of global climate change, in 1988 the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the threat of human-induced climate change. Any effect that cosmic rays could have on the climate is not yet very well understood but, if there is one, it is likely to be small. Experiments done in a laboratory hint that cosmic rays could play a role in the development of tiny particles that could in turn play a part in the formation of clouds.
It has been proposed that this process would act to enhance the influences of the Sun on the climate. However, observations of clouds and galactic cosmic rays show that the possible link between cosmic rays and clouds only produces a small effect.
PDF-XChange Viewer lets you view PDF files on your computer or online just like other PDF readers can, but with "Typewriter Mode", you can type directly on any PDF page! I was using this for a long time but recently switched to their free PDF-Xchange EDITOR, which is also free but has more editing functionality. Oddly enough, a few days later, I had an opportunity to try another experiment using storytelling.
Approximately half of this radiation is immediately reflected and returned to space, while the other half is absorbed, causing the temperature of the land and oceans to increase.
These are accompanied by synthetic chemicals, foremost Chlorofluorocarbons, Hydrofluorocarbons, Perfluorocarbons and Sulphurhexafluoride that until recently were extensively used as aerosol can propellants and refrigerants in air conditioning units and freezers. Ice core, tree ring and other measurements tell us that average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were likely to have been the highest in at least the past 1300 years. Many species of plants and animals have changed their location or the timing of seasonal activities in ways that provide further evidence of climate change.
Over the past million years, these natural climate changes were due to variations in Earth's orbit that affect the amount of sunlight reaching its surface. However, simulations using sophisticated computer-based climate models confirm that climate change during the past 50 years was mainly caused by human activities that have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, while the variations in the Sun's output, aerosols and land use have had smaller impacts. The rate of increase in carbon dioxide during the industrial era is very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10,000 years. This rate and magnitude of warming are significant in the context of the past 400,000 years. Ice core records show that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere varied between 180 and 280 parts per million (ppm) due to glacial cycles. Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas), deforestation and agricultural practices have increased carbon dioxide concentrations by more than a third (to approximately 380 ppm). Reconstructions of climate data for the past 1000 years indicate that this recent warming is unusual and is unlikely to have resulted from natural causes alone. The warming in the second half of the century can only be explained if human-induced changes in greenhouse gases are included in the models.
This absorption occurs when carbon dioxide in the air dissolves in the top layer of sea water and through photosynthesis by marine plants. A little over half of this carbon dioxide remains there, while the rest is absorbed by plants and the oceans. The burning of fossil fuels by humans adds about 6.5 billion tonnes of carbon each year in the form of carbon dioxide.
Furthermore, scientific techniques reveal that this additional carbon dioxide originates from fossil fuel combustion.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report says that sea level is likely to rise by 18 to 59cm by 2100, but this does not include possible changes in big ice sheets such as Greenland and the Antarctic that could lead to more rapid sea level rise.


Instruments on satellites have monitored infrared radiation for many years, which is then converted to temperature to provide global records back to 1979.
Many processes contribute to our climate, including the absorption and emission of heat by materials such as gases and water, reflection of heat from different surfaces such as snow and trees and the circulation of the oceans and atmosphere.
In 2000, a set of greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios for the 21st century were developed for use in climate model simulations. It is very likely that increasing temperatures in the 20th century contributed to this sea level rise through thermal expansion of seawater and widespread loss of glaciers.
This thermal expansion of the ocean will be a major contributor to sea level rise during future centuries. The amount of energy received by the Earth varies due to changes in the Sun's activity and changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. Measured solar activity over the last few decades has not significantly changed and cannot explain the continued warming trend. This would lead to a 50% reduction in summer rainfall and a 20% increase in winter rainfall as well as an increase in sea level of up to 90 centimetres.
It may take many years before the cooling influence of the volcanic aerosol disappears completely.
Cosmic rays are fast moving particles which come from space, and release electric charge in the atmosphere. We know that when the Sun is more active its magnetic field is stronger and this deflects cosmic rays away from the Earth.
Even if cosmic rays were shown to have a more substantial impact, the level of solar activity has changed so little over the last few decades the process could not explain the recent rises in temperature that we have seen.
I thought I'd notice some limited functionality in the free version or something and switch back to Viewer, but so far it's been better, as I did want more editing functions.
It has everything, what you can find in Foxit or Adobe Reader, but it's more stable and faster. The bumps and bruises I collected along the way helped me realize that helping organizations adopt Agile practices was less about the practices, and all about change. Ice ages historically have extended over about 90,000 years and the warmer interglacials have lasted about 10,000 years. For the past 10,000 years global atmospheric carbon dioxide has been quite stable at between 260 and 280 ppm, and level at about 280 ppm from 1000 to 250 years ago. Events, such as fires, which release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, are known as ‘sources'. Warming of a few degrees may seem minor compared with day-to-day or seasonal variations in temperature.
The climate change projected in the 21st century would occur at a time that is already one of the warmest for hundreds of thousands of years, with current levels of carbon dioxide not exceeded for the past 650,000 years, and not likely exceeded during the past 20 million years.
While the models still have shortcomings, there has been enormous progress over past years in our understanding of important climate processes and their representation in climate models. Climate models can reproduce present climatic features reasonably well, along with past climatic changes such as the last Ice Age and the climate change of the 20th century.
This is also because the deep ocean and the polar ice caps have massive thermal inertia, so they warm and cool more slowly than the atmosphere. Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases are responsible for the bulk of the warming experienced in recent decades.
Changes to our climate on this scale will have wide ranging impacts upon agricultural practices, water resources, coastal defences, transport, public health, wildlife, landscape, and the composition and productivity of Torbay’s economy. These particles reflect energy from the Sun back into space, preventing some of the Sun's rays from heating the Earth. This cooling offset the warming effects of both El Niño and human-induced greenhouse gases from 1991 to 1993. As a result warm water accumulates in the western equatorial Pacific, to the north-east of Australia, heating air in contact with it. This in turn warms the air in contact with it which rises, lifting tonnes of moisture that condenses in the atmosphere forming massive cloud banks. So the argument is that a more active Sun would lead to fewer cosmic rays reaching the Earth, resulting in fewer clouds and therefore a warmer Earth.
Infra red radiation is less capable of passing through the Earth’s atmosphere and can become trapped by greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas concentrations changed with the temperature variations and caused about half of the magnitude of the climate changes. The oceans and growing trees remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and are known as ‘sinks'.
The carbon from carbon dioxide absorbed by a tree may be stored as wood for hundreds of years.
However, in global climate terms it is much larger than any of the climatic changes experienced during the past 10,000 years.
Avoiding this level of warming by the year 2100 will require substantial global emissions reductions within the next 20-40 years. Or the carbon may become part of a leaf that dies and decomposes, with the carbon returning to the atmosphere relatively quickly.



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