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Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe.
Time series of seasonal (red dots) and annual average (black line) of global upper ocean heat content for the 0-700m layer since 1955.
While ocean heat content varies significantly from place to place and from year-to-year (as a result of changing ocean currents and natural variability), there is a strong trend during the period of reliable measurements. Average of monthly snow cover extent anomalies over Northern Hemisphere lands (including Greenland) since Nov 1966.
One way climate changes can be assessed is by measuring the frequency of events considered "extreme" (among the most rare of temperature, precipitation and storm intensity values). A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm).
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom).
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Glacier melting in the Himalayas is virtually certain to disrupt water supplies within the next 20 to 30 years. Ongoing water shortages, notably in southern and eastern Australia, are likely to get worse by 2030. Nearly all European regions are expected to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change. Increasing temperatures and decreases in soil water in the eastern Amazon region would lead to replacement of tropical forest by savannah. Warming in western mountains is very likely to reduce snowpack, bringing more floods in winter and reduced water supplies in summer. Reductions are likely in the thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and the extent of sea ice and permafrost.
Sea level rise is likely to worsen floods, storm surges and coastal erosion, with impacts on the socio-economic wellbeing of island communities. The supply of water is very likely to increase at higher latitudes and in some wet tropics, including populous areas in east and southeast Asia.
Many ecosystems are likely to be challenged beyond their capacity to adapt over the course of the century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances such as wildfires, and other aspects of modern-day global change. Crop yields are likely to increase at higher latitudes for global average temperature increases of up to 1-3C (depending on the crop), and then decrease beyond that.
Coasts are very likely to be exposed to increasing risks due to climate change and sea level rise, and the effect will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas. The benefits and costs of climate change for industry, settlement, and society will vary widely by location and scale. Projected climate change is likely to affect millions of people, particularly those with low capacity to adapt, through increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature.
The global surface temperature is based on air temperature data over land and sea-surface temperatures observed from ships, buoys and satellites.
Increasing heat content in the ocean is also consistent with sea level rise, which is occurring mostly as a result of thermal expansion of the ocean water as it warms. The Climate Extremes Index (CEI) value for the contiguous United States is an objective way to determine whether extreme events are on the rise.
The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence).
The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution.


Coupled with increasing demand, this is likely to result in large increases in the number of people at risk of water scarcity. Ecologically important regions such as the Great Barrier Reef and Kakadu National Park are likely to lose a significant part of their wildlife before then, by 2020. Central and Eastern European countries could face less summer rainfall, causing higher water stress.
It is very likely to decrease over much of the mid-latitudes and dry tropics, which are presently water-stressed areas.
In the second half of this century, ecosystems on land are likely to become a net source of carbon rather than a net absorber. It is likely that corals will experience a major decline due to increased bleaching and mortality due to rising seawater temperatures. Some of the effects in temperate and polar regions will be positive, and others elsewhere will be negative. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.
There is a clear long-term global warming trend, while each individual year does not always show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. The inset shows global mean sea level rise since 1993 - a period over which sea level rise has accelerated. Much of the sea level rise to date is a result of increasing heat of the ocean causing it to expand. Glaciers have been retreating worldwide for at least the last century; the rate of retreat has increased in the past decade. The figure to the left shows the the number of extreme climate events (those which place among the most unusual of the historical record) has been rising over the last four decades.
The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
It is likely to affect livelihoods, the report by the International Panel on Climate Change says. Heavily-populated coastal regions, including the deltas of rivers such as the Ganges and Mekong, are likely to be at risk of increased flooding. Some coastal communities are very likely to see an increased risk of coastal storms and flooding. Drier areas are likely to see salinisation and desertification of agricultural land, with falling crop yields and livestock productivity reducing food security.
Cities with a history of heat waves are likely to experience many more, with potential health impacts, especially for the elderly. Changes to natural ecosystems are likely to impact migrating birds, mammals and higher predators adversely. There is strong evidence that water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously compromised.
At lower latitudes, especially the seasonally dry tropics, crop yield potential is likely to decrease for even small global temperature increases, which would increase risk of hunger.
These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Ninos, La Ninas, and the eruption of large volcanoes.
Only a few glaciers are actually advancing (in locations that were well below freezing, and where increased precipitation has outpaced melting). The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years. Projected reductions in the area suitable for growing crops, and in the length of the growing season, are likely to produce an increased risk of hunger. Economic development is likely to be impacted by the combination of climatic change, urbanisation, and rapid economic and population growth. Temperature rises of 1C-2C are likely to bring benefits to cooler areas, such as New Zealand, in the form of longer growing seasons and reduced energy demand. Rising sea levels, severe weather and storm surges, combined with population growth in coastal areas, are very likely to increase economic losses. Specific ecosystems and habitats are expected to be vulnerable, as climatic barriers to species invasions are lowered.


Instances of extreme rainfall are likely to increase in frequency and intensity, raising the risk of floods.
Global agricultural production potential is likely to increase with increases in global average temperature up to about 3C, but above this it is very likely to decrease. Many millions more people are expected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s, especially in densely populated and low-lying settlements which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence. The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are those in coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring. Climate change is likely to have some mixed effects, such as the expansion and contraction of the range of malaria in different regions. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.
Notably, the 20 warmest years have all occurred since 1981, and the 10 warmest have all occurred in the past 12 years. The progressive disappearance of glaciers has implications not only for a rising global sea level, but also for water supplies in certain regions of Asia and South America. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors. Forecast changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to reduce crop yields overall, increasing the risk of hunger. Greater warming is likely to bring a net negative impact - such as increased risk of drought and fire. Southern European countries are very likely to see reduced water supplies, lower crop production, more wildfires and health impacts from increased heatwaves.
Sea level rise is very likely to bring flooding to low-lying regions such as the coast of El Salvador, Guyana and the Rio de la Plata estuary. Increases in the frequency and severity of floods and droughts will have implications on sustainable development. Increased frequency of droughts and floods would affect local production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.
The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia, but small islands face the highest relative increase in risk. Poor communities can be especially vulnerable because they tend to be concentrated in relatively high-risk areas, have more limited coping capacities, and can be more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies. In some places, climate change is likely to bring some benefits to health such as fewer deaths from cold exposure.
The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The presence of lethal diarrhoeal diseases associated with floods and droughts is expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia and rises in coastal water temperature could exacerbate cholera in South Asia.
Northern countries are likely to benefit from increased crop yields, forest productivity, and food supplies from the North Atlantic.
Increasing sea temperatures are likely to impact coral reefs and south-east Pacific fish stocks. Detrimental impacts would include those on infrastructure and traditional indigenous ways of life while beneficial effects would include reduced heating costs and more navigable northern sea routes.
Water volumes stored in glaciers and snow cover are very likely to decline, reducing summer and autumn flows in regions where more than one sixth of the world population currently live.
Where extreme weather events become more intense, the economic costs of those events will increase, and these increases are likely to be substantial in the areas most directly affected. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences. Degradation of coral reefs and mangroves is likely, with impacts on local fisheries and tourism. Changes in rainfall patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are projected to significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation. For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. Rising temperatures, coupled with over-fishing, will decrease the supply of fish from large lakes, with important impacts on food supplies.



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