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Japan has dipped back into its fourth recession in five years despite the most massive quantitative easing experiment the world has ever seen. Slow economic growth and low inflation has the European Central Bank considering another dose of quantitative easing. Chinaa€™s central bank may be on hold after its two-day devaluation in August wreaked havoc on global markets. This growing divergence in central bank policy around the world has created a great imbalance in the global economic order, which establishes the very real potential for a rising dollar to trigger the next global financial crisis. The divergence in economic growth and central bank policies has caused the dollar to break out in a big way.
The rising dollar is a big problem for the massive amount of dollar denominated debt held outside of the US.
Low interest rates in the US have led to an explosion of borrowing in dollars around the worlda€”especially in emerging markets. Companies and governments in emerging markets have borrowed in dollars because of the ultra low interest rates available, but they earn the money to pay back those loans in local currencies.
It doesna€™t matter how profitable a business is if the local currency is falling relative to the US dollar. The rising dollar could force international borrowers into a very messy process of deleveraging.
She is the author of a cookbook called "Melt: The Art of Macaroni and Cheese,"A published by Little, Brown, and Company. One place online where Stiavetti has decided to be less active about promoting herself is Facebook. Facebook is by far the world's biggest social network, with almost a billion people using it every single day. Because, she says, only about 1% of those 8,000 fans see the status updates, recipes, and photos she puts on Facebook. To make matter worse, Facebook has been charging page owners to run ads, which is in essence buying followers. Facebook said it was changing the algorithm so that it would highlight higher quality news stories and show fewer silly photos. But the immediate effect of the change was to drastically reduce the reach of the kinds of Facebook brand pages maintained by people like Stiavetti, e-commerce companies, and national brands.
Spokespeople for several companies told us that the "reach" of their Facebook posts declined by as much 80% after the changes.
Like Stiavetti, the people running those pages assumed Facebook actually changed its algorithm not to have the News Feed show higher quality A news stories, but to force Facebook page operators to buy ads from Facebook if they wanted reach. In an email to Business Insider, a Facebook spokesperson said that was not the motivation behind the News Feed change. The problem for Facebook is that appearances are reality a€” and to Facebook page managers, small like Stiavetti or big like several national retailers we spoke to, it appears that Facebook is shaking them down for bigger ad spends.
And a new report from the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences finds that by as early as the end of this decade, the city will be a far warmer, stormier, less-pleasant place to live than it is now.
Well while the pace of growth in Germany is to be welcomed, and particularly the fact that it is appears to be finally feeding into wage gains for German workers, the country's history of chronic inflation phobia could yet scupper hopes of a sustainable recovery in the region.
The problem is as follows: Since the onset of the euro crisis the economies of member states have been diverging. The key point to note is that high unemployment is generally considered a good reason to think that an economy has room to grow at a relatively rapid pace without causing inflation to rise to worrying levels. Such large differences between countries would normally result in very different central bank interest rates.
Higher wages are good news for German consumers, but they will be equally welcomed by struggling states in Europe's periphery as stronger German demand could provide a boost to exports and reduce the competitive advantage that lower labour costs have given to German products and services. For evidence of this, you need only look at the government's ultra-conservative response to the collapse in its borrowing costs over recent months.
Last month the German government sold 5-year bonds with a negative nominal yield a€” meaning that in effect people are paying the government to borrow a€” for the first time in its history. While we are unlikely to see exactly the same scenario play out in Europe, extremely low yields on safe government debt could well start to channel investment into other higher-yielding (and at least notionally "safe") assets such as property in core countries.
AlreadyA Germanya€™s central bank president Jens Weidmann has been warning that property prices in the country are showing signs of being overvalued, although he stopped short of calling it a bubble. If the state chose to use the tax windfall to swell its coffers even more it might help to cool domestic demand somewhat. Moreover, even if it were to succeed in cooling German economic growth and inflation it would mean that the gap between the core and the periphery would last for longer. A more positive alternative scenario is that the government could try to soak up the additional investment demand through issuing bonds.


Unfortunately, there is precious little evidence that German policymakers are even willing to consider such a strategy. Donald Trump has been relentless in condemning Jeb Bush, calling him a€?low energya€? and a€?incompetent.a€? While the insults hit a soft spota€”Bush acknowledged as much Wednesday when he called for a€?high energy leadershipa€?a€”ita€™s the competitors who arena€™t attacking him he might have to worry about the most.
Over the past month, John Kasich has been moving in on Busha€™s turf, gaining ground in the must-win state of New Hampshire. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump leading the Granite State pack with 27 percent of the support, with Kasich at 11 percent and Bush one point behind in third place. Kasich is placing almost all of his eggs in the New Hampshire basket, believing a win there could propel him far beyond that primary, while Bush is running a national campaign.
Both have based their campaigns on their records, an appeal to a broader electorate, compassion for the poor and displaced, and an overall uplifting message about the potential for the future.
A Both men have long records of support for the anti-abortion movement and both come from key swing states.
But in an attempt to derail Kasicha€™s New Hampshire-centered strategy, Busha€™s supporters and surrogates might start to question this upstarta€™s conservative credentials and his viability in a Republican primary.
The Ohio chief executive has defended the Medicaid expansion as a moral issue, to the dismay of fellow Republicans (including those in his own legislature) while also opposing the law that made it possible. While Kasich has tried to focus on budgetary and other economic issues, even his pro-life credentials have come under scrutiny from anti-abortion groups. Kasicha€™s record of balancing the budget in Congress and erasing deficits as governor, and his recent electoral victories in must-win Ohio set him apart from Huntsman, who served in the Obama administration as ambassador to China before launching his presidential bid. Why are you asking me for personal information?We collect personal information including your contact and demographic information for the purposes of identification, account administration and display of personalised content and advertising. Well while the pace of growth in Germany is to be welcomed, and particularly the fact that it is appears to be finally feeding into wage gains for German workers, the country’s history of chronic inflation phobia could yet scupper hopes of a sustainable recovery in the region.
Higher wages are good news for German consumers, but they will be equally welcomed by struggling states in Europe’s periphery as stronger German demand could provide a boost to exports and reduce the competitive advantage that lower labour costs have given to German products and services. For evidence of this, you need only look at the government’s ultra-conservative response to the collapse in its borrowing costs over recent months.
Already Germany’s central bank president Jens Weidmann has been warning that property prices in the country are showing signs of being overvalued, although he stopped short of calling it a bubble. With the ECB undertaking asset purchase programmes, the cost of credit in large, growing economies like Germany is only likely to fall from here.
Meanwhile, major central banks around the world are still engaging in enormous quantitative easing programs to jump-start their economies. The PBOC doesna€™t want to risk losing its bid to have the yuan included in the IMF currency basket. It becomes more expensive to repay the loan with every uptick in the dollar and sinks the company further into debt. The publication explores developments overlooked by mainstream news to help you understand whata€™s happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. Over the past few months my engagement has slowed to less than a trickle a€“ a tiny fraction of what it was at the beginning of the year.
He saidA the most likely reason "organic" posts from Facebook pages weren't getting seen was that, during the holiday season, retailers are buying lots of ads for the News Feed, and those are crowding out the non-paid content. Low unemployment suggests that an economy is operating close to its potential, meaning that an increase in the rate of growth would likely mean that prices would start being pushed up. In Germany and Austria, unemployment is hovering around levels that economists tend to consider the "natural rate", where further drops would likely imply higher wage growth (as employers have to offer more money to entice workers) and rising prices. Within the monetary union, however, they are all reliant on rates set by the European Central Bank, which means that during periods of economic divergence (as we have now) policy is likely to be too tight for the weakest economies and too loose for the strongest. Stronger growth in Germany has seen negotiated salaries rising at the fastest pace in two decades as workers appear to be shrugging off their reputation for wage restraint. Yet to realise these benefits, Merkel's government will have to allow inflation in the country to rise a€” potentially even above the ECB's target of "close to but below 2%". Markets are practically begging Germany to issue debt but it seems that the need to appear prudent is getting in the way of sensible policy. Between 1998 and 2001 the Clinton administration also decided to run a budget surplus in the face of very strong investor demand for safe government bonds. That in turn suggests that, in the absence of direct government intervention, the prices of a range of assets (including property) could well continue to rise. In theory it could decide to increase taxes, for example on property transactions, in order to drain money from the economy and prevent it from overheating. However, it would also be likely to exacerbate the contraction of government bond supply as demand for Bunds fails to drop at the same rate as the debt is being paid down. If growth fails to pick up elsewhere in the region the ECB could be compelled to continue or even increase its QE programme to bring inflation back towards target causing the cycle to start all over again.


If it used even a portion of those funds to invest in struggling peripheral European economies (either directly or through increasing funding of supranational investment funds) it could help increase growth across the region, helping to bring those economies back into line with Germany and reducing the pressure on itself to take the burden of adjustment. Without it, however, Merkel and her government remain the biggest risk to the prospects of a European recovery. The Ohio governor is positioning himself as moderate Republicansa€™ viable alternative to Bush, with a more current resume and less baggage, while refraining from going after his Florida rival. As long as Trump outpaces the field by a wide margin there, the race for the number two spot figures to be the most competitive. Unlike the other contenders, Kasich has been supportive of the Common Core education standards that Bush backs, and has been similarly open to some kind of legalization pathway for undocumented immigrants.
Jeb Bush speaks during a forum sponsored by Americans for Peace, Prosperity and Security, Thursday, Aug. Each has emphasizeda€”in a year in which political outsiders seem to be getting most of the love from the conservative grassrootsa€”his experience in government: Bush as a two-term governor, and Kasich as a current governor and previously a fiscally conservative chairman of the House Budget Committee who did battle with Democrats in Washington. While rivals like Scott Walker and Bobby Jindal have criticized him for his position, Kasich hasna€™t backed away from it. John Kasich speaks during the first Republican presidential debate at the Quicken Loans Arena Thursday, Aug.
After suffering relentless attacks from the frontrunner for several weeks, he has been fighting back.
These gains now also seem to be feeding through to expectations for the future as well with German consumer confidence hitting a 14-year high on Thursday.
Last year the German government ran a budget surplus equivalent to 0.4% of GDP despite being able to borrow at interest rates below 1% for 30-year bonds.
However, it would also be likely to exacerbate the contraction of government debt supply as demand for it fails to drop at the same rate as it is being paid down. If growth is fails to pick up elsewhere in the region the ECB could be compelled to continue or even increase its QE programme to bring inflation back towards target causing the cycle to start all over again.
Now, when I post to my Facebook page for The Culinary Life, only 100 people see those posts (on average). Ita€™s terrible that Facebook has decided to hide our work from your eyes after youa€™ve already expressed interest in seeing it.
By stark contrast, unemployment in Spain and Greece remains above 20% a€” an extraordinarily high level that implies an uptick in growth would have very little impact on average wages. Some academics argue that by doing so and shrinking the outstanding stock of government debt the US government played a part in inflating a housing bubble as investors began channelling funds that would have gone to government bonds into mortgage securities. At least some of this money could be driven into the very asset classes that the state is trying to cool, worsening the problem rather than resolving it. Bush and Trump arena€™t really going after the same voters, but he and Kasich are definitely doing so.A  In a field this crowded, the true threat comes not from the polar opposite candidate, but the one trying to be most like you.
He was Jon Huntsmana€™s principal strategist in the former Utah governora€™s failed 2012 presidential bid. Wade a€?the law of the landa€? when asked about the issue before quickly moving on to the next question. Although the brawl with Trump has gotten him into some troublea€”he got bogged down on the controversial term a€?anchor babiesa€? last weeka€”it has also injected some much needed life and vigor into his campaign.
It could also become a distraction and open the door to some of his rivals, like Kasich, or even Marco Rubio or Carly Fiorina. By stark contrast, unemployment in Spain and Greece remains above 20% — an extraordinarily high level that implies an uptick in growth would have very little impact on average wages.
At least some of this money could be driven into the very asset classes that the state is trying to cool worsening the problem rather than resolving it.
We are not large brands selling products; the vast majority of food bloggers are moms, dads, husbands, wives, hobbyists,A students, writers a€” everyday folks who just want to invite you into our kitchens. As was the case with Huntsman, Weavera€™s Republican credentials are under scrutiny, notwithstanding his assistance in John McCaina€™s 2000 New Hampshire win.
Given that I dona€™t make any money from the stories and photos I post a€“ please note there are not any ads on my site a€“ paying hundreds of dollars a month to access you, the fans who willingly liked my page, is just not possible. In addition, Kasich is one of the few Republican governors whose state didna€™t opt out of the Medicaid expansion provisions in the Affordable Care Act.



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