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When rumors started circulating that Jada Pinkett-Smith would not be returning to Gotham after the season one finale, many Gothamites were in shock and denial. How could Gotham’s resident bad girl and notorious nightclub owner not remain a fixture on Fox’s runaway hit? Since we didn’t actually see Fish Mooney being dragged off by a hungry shark, fans can keep hoping that she will reappear in Gotham when least expected, in true Fish Mooney style. Either way, Gotham season two promises a deliciously sinister storyline after the long hot summer. Fish Mooney’s death left a gaping hole in the hearts of fans and big bad shoes to fill in Gotham, shoes so big that it took an army of villains to fill them.
With all this terror ready to rain down on the unsuspecting citizens of Gotham, GCPD will need reinforcements. While Fish Mooney may not be returning for Gotham’s season two, fans can still see a little bit of her in former student. With four Emmy nominations under its belt, Gotham will return with season two on September 21 on Fox and everything will be just fine. David Cameron is clearly not interested in winning friends and gaining influence in Brussels.
As if to add injury to insult, on 28 February the European Parliament voted to impose a bonus cap on Europe’s bankers, setting a limit of 100% of base salary[7].
Much has been made of a recent Times poll showing a majority of Britons favoring a UK exit, but it is significant that fully 23% of respondents were undecided. While much has been made of Britons’ visceral rejection of all things from Brussels, much if not all of the dislike is focused on social issues and immigration, rather than economic complaints. Perverse or not, €300 billion is still a very great deal of money to lose, and European economies are not in a position to be leaving any money on the table.
British exports to the “rest of the world” have steadily increased and surpassed – by some measures – the percentage of exports to the EU.
There is another, political reason, why Europeans, particularly Germany, want Britain to stay and may be willing to give Mr.
No economy dominates, though Germany is clearly the most important and influential member of the club.
The balance in the Common Market is lost, and the stability provided by a “semi-independent” UK is replaced by either a too dominant Germany or a coalition of Mediterranean states to counterbalance the Teutonic giant.
Germany is well-aware of this negative perception and has been actively attempting to mitigate it.
Most commentators have asked, “Can Britain survive without Europe?” Perhaps the opposite question is more pertinent.
Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. A color-enhanced scanning electron micrograph of a water bear, which is probably the only creature on Earth that looks like a cannon wearing wrinkled khakis.
In 1933, the owner of a New York City speakeasy and three cronies embarked on a rather unoriginal scheme to make a quick couple grand: Take out three life insurance policies on the bar’s deepest alcoholic, Mike Malloy, then kill him. The water bear’s trick is something called cryptobiosis, in which it brings its metabolic processes nearly to a halt.
This hibernation of sorts isn’t happening for a single season, like a true bear (tardigrades are invertebrates). Mike the Durable did just fine in the freezing cold, but the temperatures the water bear endures in cryptobiosis defy belief.
At this temperature the movements of the normally frenzied atoms inside the water bear come almost to a standstill, yet the creature endures. Water bears don’t even necessarily inhabit extreme habitats like, say, boiling springs where certain bacteria proliferate. A newly hatched water bear, with DNA marked blue, which the tardigrade really shouldn’t be wearing after Labor Day. And so it could be that the water bear’s incredible feats of survival may simply stem from a tough life in the dirt. Ironically enough, these incredibly hardy creatures are very difficult to grow in the lab, but Goldstein has had great success where many others have failed. Thanks to this breakthrough, Goldstein and other scientists are exploring the possibility of utilizing the water bear as science’s next fruit fly, that ubiquitous test subject that has yielded so many momentous discoveries.
In addition, Thomas Boothby, a postdoctoral scientist working under Goldstein, is conducting research into how water bears are able to survive dried out at room temperature, with a mind to apply their magic to vaccines. I’d also propose that we harness the water bear’s powers to finally make cryonics possible way earlier than anyone could have expected. These show us almost human characteristics of the creatures, with the water bear, with its strange conical nose, appearing almost as if it is smiling after being magnified 500 times.
Another insect, called the springtail, bears an uncanny resemblance to a rabbit with its large ear-like feelers.The hexapod, which is found in leaf litter, can jump a hundred times their body length in one leap. The predatory arachnid gets its name from the fine hairs that cover its body, giving it the appearance of velvet.
The silkworm and spikey-looking processionary moth caterpillar also form part of the collection. In one image a maggot appears almost demonic with ita€™s red eyes and in another a harmless bluebottle fly larva bears fang-like teeth.
The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. Hopefully all of you have heard of Mike the chicken since you are are chicken lovers, but all i'm doing is diving deeper in depth for that.
This chapter examines the range of human consequences of, and responses to, global environmental change.
This complex causal structure makes projecting the human consequences of global change a trickier task than is sometimes imagined. Building these scenarios, identifying the most probable ones, and assessing their outcomes would be an overwhelming analytic task. In our judgment, understanding human responses is key to understanding the human consequences of global change.
People and social institutions may respond to environmental change as it is experienced (post facto) or as it is anticipated.
Changes in society that incidentally affect human responses to global change are important both directly and because they could become tomorrow's deliberate responses.
Response to global change may be coordinated, as through the policies of governments or trade associations aimed at eliciting the same action from many actors, or uncoordinated, as with independent actions of households or small firms. Figure 4-1 elaborates on Figure 2-2 to show how human action can intervene at any point in the cycle of interaction between human and environmental systems to protect against threats to what humans value. The term mitigation is generally used to describe interventions on the human causes side of the diagram. For example, global warming is the direct result of a change in the earth's radiative balance; humans can mitigate global warming by any actions that slow the rate of change or limit the ultimate amount of change in the radiative balance. Mitigation of ozone depletion might, in principle, involve release of substances that interact chemically with CFCs, producing compounds with benign effects on the stratospheric ozone layer (type E), limiting emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other gases that deplete ozone (type P), or developing alternative methods of cooling buildings that do not rely on CFCs (type H).
Another type of adaptive response is to prevent or compensate for losses of welfare that would otherwise result from global change. Yet another type of response, sometimes called anticipatory adaptation, aims to improve the robustness of social systems, so that an unchecked environmental change would produce less reduction of values than would otherwise be the case. All social systems are vulnerable to environmental change, and modern industrial societies have different vulnerabilities from earlier social forms. An important consequence of global environmental change is conflict, because global change affects what humans value, and different people value different things. One of the most heated policy debates about responses to a global change is between advocates of immediate efforts to mitigate global warming and those who would postpone such action.
In one view, the wise course of action on global warming is to conduct research on the phenomenon but not to take action to slow or mitigate it until the phenomenon is better understood. Social science can help illuminate the nature of environmental controversies and evaluate ways of managing them. Social scientists specializing in conflict have developed generalizations that might be more thoroughly applied to environmental conflict. More research seems warranted to use existing knowledge about conflict to illuminate the ways social conflict may result from global environmental change. Research on Conflict Resolution and Management Social scientists have also identified a number of approaches for resolving or managing policy disputes, some of which are beginning to be studied in the context of environmental conflicts. The nature of technological conflicts suggests, however, that over the long term, management is a more realistic goal than stable resolution.
Penguin, who learned everything he knows about infamy and disreputable behavior from Fish, will be back for more mayhem. Nygma, Selina Kyle, and resident good guys Alfred, Gordon, Bullock and of course Batman himself, Bruce Wayne.
On January 23rd, the British Prime Minister made a major foreign policy speech calling for a renegotiation of the United Kingdom’s relationship with Europe as well as an “in-out” referendum sometime after the next general election.[1] Mr. Cameron conditioned his remarks by expressing his continued support for Britain’s – modified – participation in Europe.
Cameron did not list which powers he would be negotiating to take back, nor what would happen if Europe refused to negotiate any revision at all. Bankers in the UK, which accounts for 40% of Europe’s financial services industry and is home to the only global financial center in Europe, were set to suffer disproportionately. Cameron is aware of the potential costs of an exit from the common market and he has been very clear that he personally does not want Britain to leave Europe. Even more telling, 61% of all respondents conditioned their response upon the deal any future British government might make: the British don’t want more Europe, but that doesn’t mean they don’t want any Europe at all.
While business leaders grouse about “excessive regulation” from EU bodies, the reality is that most people concede that British firms and the British economy have benefited mightily from the Common Market.
Cameron in a somewhat awkward position: the UK stands to lose up to €269 billion in trade – on aggregate – from departing the Common Market, but none of her trading partners will individually lose more than €70 billion, even if the EU as a whole would lose more the Britain. The economic damage to Britain’s partners goes beyond a simple calculation of export volume: British industries are heavily involved in Airbus and the parent company, EADS. Take away the United Kingdom, however, and the Common Market starts to look an awful lot like a continental version of the Prussian Zollverein of the late 19th Century. Such a shift in the internal dynamics of the Union could have profound and highly negative impacts on the future of the institution. The Germans want to be the good Europeans; and to an admirable extent, they have succeeded. It seems clear that both Britain and Europe stand to lose a very great deal from a divorce, no matter how accommodating it is. Depending on which data source you reference, the actual percentage can be higher or lower than 50%. This measure, which was part of the coalition agreement between Tories and Liberal Democrats in the current government, replaced the previous system whereby the Prime Minister – acting under the authority of the Crown – could dissolve Parliament at any time, thus precipitating a snap election at a time of political advantage to the incumbent. Except in the microscopic world beneath our feet, where there lives what is perhaps the toughest creature on Earth: the tardigrade.
In this state it can dehydrate to 3 percent of its normal water content in what is called desiccation, becoming a husk of its former self.
As far as scientists can tell, water bears can be dried out for at least a decade and still revivify, only to find their clothes are suddenly out of style. And that’s all the more incredible when you consider that the water bear indeed has a brain, a relatively simple one, sure, but a brain that somehow emerges from this unscathed. And a few of them once survived an experiment that subjected them to 10 days exposed to the vacuum of space. Therefore the term “extremophile” that has been applied to tardigrades over the years isn’t entirely accurate. I mean, would you rather stay in a Motel 6 in a lake of boiling acidic water or lounge around on a beach resort and drink algae cocktails? And, like so many great things in this world, it all began in a shed in England, where a regular old chap mastered their breeding to sell them to local schools for scientific experiments. The water bear’s small size means you can pack a ton of them into a lab, plus they reproduce quickly and have a relatively compact genome to work with. So much of the cost of these, you see, comes from chilling them as they’re shuttled around the world.
Then maybe in a few years we can resuscitate humans currently frozen in cryonic tubes and tell them that it’s actually 2149, but the world is still kind of a mess. Samples, which are invisible to the naked eye, are covered in gold leaf and then placed under the microscope.'Wea€™ve had an amazing response to the images.
What had happened is his owner, Lloyd, was sent out by his wife to retrieve a chicken to eat. He attempted to preen, peck, and crow, though with limited success, he made a gurgling sound with his throat.
In consequence, people have migrated or changed their ways of living as polar ice advanced and retreated, endured crop failures or altered their crops when temperature and rainfall patterns changed, and made numerous other adjustments in individual and collective behavior.


We begin by developing the concept of human consequences and showing why, to understand them, it is critical to understand the variety of human responses to global change. One way in which the actions that cause global change are different from most of these is that the effects take decades to centuries to be realized. It is misleading to picture human impacts as if global change were like a meteorite striking an inert planet, because social systems are always changing and are capable of anticipation. Assume that four sets of scenarios are developed for the futures of the natural environment, social and economic organization, values, and policies. Rather than trying to set a research agenda for that task, we undertake in this chapter a less demanding but still very difficult task: to focus on human responses to global change broadly conceived. We do not mean to downplay the importance of certain kinds of research that do not focus explicitly on responses.
We consider the following analytic distinctions useful for thinking about the range of responses available.
For instance, people can build dikes to keep out rising seas or reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate global warming.
For example, gasoline taxes, which were not initiated with the global environment as a consideration, could be increased to cut CO2 emissions.
Both types of response can be either anticipatory or post facto; both can affect global change either deliberately or incidentally. Mitigation includes all actions that prevent, limit, delay, or slow the rate of undesired impacts by acting directly or indirectly on environmental systems.
Such actions are sometimes generically called adaptation, but there are important distinctions among them. This debate arose within the committee, even though we were not charged with recommending strategies for response to global change. The nature and extent of global warming in the future is highly uncertain because of incomplete knowledge of the relevant properties of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and other relevant systems.
One pits Third World countries against the developed countries that are now becoming concerned with limiting use of fossil fuels and restricting the felling of tropical forests. True, some of the disagreements might fade with better knowledge about the global environment and the likely effects of different feasible responses.
This research would investigate the ways environmental changes may affect organized social groups and their resource bases and would hypothesize links between those effects and conflict. Relatively little is known about the structure of particular conflicts about global change at the local, national, and international levels or about which means will be most effective in dealing with them. Cameron cited the British public’s “all time high” disillusionment with the EU and the fact that they had not been consulted on Europe since 1975 as the reasons he was calling for the popular vote.
He expressed his determination to seek a mandate for renegotiation with Brussels and for the referendum in the next general election as part of the Tory manifesto.
The Swedish Foreign Minister, Carl Bildt, agreed with the need for flexibility in EU rules, but warned that “a 28-speed Europe…is just a mess.”[6] Only the Dutch backed Mr. George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, flew to Brussels in an attempt to win at least some concessions from his fellow finance ministers.
The opposition leader, Labour’s Ed Miliband, categorically rejected an in-out referendum on European membership and accused Mr.
Many of these executives privately chafe at what they consider to be excessive regulations and control from Brussels and most are against abandoning the pound or any closer integration; yet in public they are almost universal in their support for the common market. Cameron’s speech, State Department officials were warning of risks that a referendum could turn Britain inwards.[12] After the speech, Administration Press Secretary Jay Carney reiterated that America wants the UK to stay in Europe[13]. The challenge posed by the waspish MEP Nigel Farage and his openly Eurosceptic UKIP is a growing one. By finally providing his party with their long sought after referendum, he has become the hero of the hour for Tory MP’s as well as conservative voters, though he hopes the effects of his speech will last longer than that.
The UKIP can no longer bang on the drum of EU exit; at least they are not as likely to steal Tory voters anymore. By leaving the referendum in the distant future, and predicating it on a Tory victory in 2015, Mr. This could lead to the perverse dynamic of individual states with little to lose in British trade blocking any revisions to the current relationship even states with more to lose might be willing to make concessions. European pharmaceuticals have a critical research and manufacturing presence in the United Kingdom; the automotive sector in the UK is also pan-European.
British firms have made a sustained effort since the middle of the last decade to better position themselves in emerging markets.
That trend is likely to continue as emerging markets continue to enjoy higher sustained growth rates than the mature economies of Europe. Today, the European Union is relatively well-balanced, with four great economies dominating (Germany, France, United Kingdom and Italy – Spain could be included as a courtesy, but it is only 66% of Italian GDP). German power is already being reviled in markets where “Germanic” austerity has bitten the hardest, and the Franco-German relationship is straining.
It is probable that Berlin would be extremely sensitive to enhancing perceptions of “dominating Europe”; and they do not want the formation of a permanent “Club Med” working against their interests. The British economy would weather the storm eventually, though the cost might be more than the British public is willing to bear. Fabius was referring to Britain’s perhaps tactless comment during the 2012 French election that it would roll out the red carpet for French businesses fleeing Mr.
The poll was conducted online on a random sample of 2,204 adults between 23 and 24 January 2013. Unlike regular bears is everything else about tardigrades, particularly their lack of a totally crappy attitude all the time.
Also known as the water bear (because it looks like an adorable little many-legged bear), this exceedingly tiny critter has an incredible resistance to just about everything.
But just add water and the tardigrade roars back to life like Mike the Durable emerging from a bender and continues trudging along, puncturing algae and other organisms with a mouthpart called a stylet and sucking out the nutrients. That’s an astonishing -458 degrees Fahrenheit, where matter goes bizarro, with gases becoming liquids and liquids becoming solids. Just because they’re capable of surviving these harsh environments doesn’t mean they seek them out. Goldstein’s lab is researching this, and he reckons that water bears don’t just have one simple trick, but a range of strategies to be able to endure drying out and eventually reanimating. That probably helps prevent a lot of the damage that normally occurs when you dry something down or when you rehydrate it.” Not all of the 1,000 or so species of water bears produce this sugar though, he says, so there must be some other trick going on. Sources say that his severed trachea could not properly take in air and thus he choked to death in the motel. Until very recently, people have responded to global phenomena as if they were local, have not organized their responses as government policies, and have not been able to respond by deliberately altering the course of the global changes themselves.
We then offer a framework for thinking about human responses and discuss the pivotal role of conflict. This fact causes many concerned people to consider taking action now to protect the values of those who might be affected by global environmental change in years to come. So, for example, an estimate of the number of homes that would be inundated by a one-meter rise in sea level and the associated loss of life and property may be useful for alerting decision makers to potentially important issues, but it should not be taken as a prediction, because humans always react. Joining together all combinations of one scenario from each set, and adding assumptions about people's immediate responses, would generate an extensive set of grand scenarios.
We do not discuss ways to improve forecasts of the state of the natural environment; that topic is outside the range of human dimensions. Policy makers and others are now faced with a variety of options, some of which involve anticipatory action and some of which depend on awaiting the experience of global change. Human actions can also affect human responses to global change incidentally to their intended purposes. Studies of the incidental effects of such actions might inform decision makers about what could happen without deliberate intervention and about which present policies might make societies more robust in the face of global change. Moreover, coordinated and uncoordinated responses can be connected to each other, in that coordinated actions by governments and industries can create new options for uncoordinated actors, prohibit responses, or raise or lower their costs.
They can intervene in the proximate causes (type P), by regulating automobile use or engine design to cut carbon dioxide emissions or limiting the use of certain nitrogen fertilizers to reduce nitrous oxide emissions. One type of response, which can be called blocking, prevents undesired proximate effects of environmental systems on what humans value.
It can be distinguished, at least in theory, from type H mitigation in that it does not necessarily alter the driving forces of global change.
Although these complex sociotechnical systems contain great flexibility through the operation of global markets, they may have vulnerabilities that reveal themselves in the face of the changes that these systems have helped create. The far side of vulnerability is also little studied: When a system fails to resist environmental pressure, under what conditions does it return to its previous state? It is wasteful for society to expend resources to prevent changes that will not occur anyway. Human systems can adjust to global climate changes much faster than they are likely to occur.
It makes no sense to act like the generals who built the Maginot Line for the wrong war or to construct dikes for cities whose populations will have moved or dams to water crops that will be grown elsewhere.
Further research may identify more effective and less costly interventions than those now available. Actions that can be postponed will be less burdensome because of continuing economic progress. It is in the nature of exponential growth processes that the earlier the growth rate decreases, the greater the final effect. Mitigation in the face of possibly catastrophic outcomes is like taking out insurance against flood and fire. Humans are now conducting large-scale uncontrolled experiments on the global environment by changing the face of the earth and the flows of critical materials at unprecedented rates.
The discount-rate argument is specious in the general case because the costs and benefits of postponing action are not always commensurable.
A good example is investments in energy efficiency that provide an excellent return on investment even with narrow economic calculations. The Third World position, of course, is that other countries used fossil fuels and undeveloped frontiers for their economic development, and fairness dictates that the poorer nations now have their turn. As it became clear that expected global warming over the next 50 years could not cause the breakup of the West Antarctic icecap, the flood-prevention rationale for slowing greenhouse gas emissions became considerably weaker. And even when new knowledge reduces uncertainty, controversies persist because not only facts, but also important interests and values, are at stake. Defining an environmental conflict as either one of understanding or one of interests and values affects which groups and arguments are considered legitimate in policy debates (Dietz et al., 1989). A first step is to construct an analytical framework for identifying the possible routes from particular environmental changes to particular types of conflict. This work suggests that institutions responsible for decisions about global change will also have to manage conflict.
Therefore, we recommend increased empirical research, including both field studies and laboratory-simulation studies, to clarify the sources and structures of particular environmental conflicts and to test the efficacy of alternative techniques for their resolution and institutions for their management.
Germany’s Guido Westerwelle rejected “cherry picking” of EU rules and called for more, not less integration.
The Germans squirmed and talked about “technical implementation issues” and wishing to reach agreement with Britain, but otherwise the silence was deafening. Cameron of pandering to the extremists in his party rather than representing the national interest[9]. It is “sheer madness,” says one businessman, for a nation with half of its exports[11] going to Europe to talk of leaving it.
President Obama has consistently supported a strong EU and greater integration; the US continues to view the European Union as a fundamental element in European democracy and a key national security interest. Cameron has his hands full: rebellion among the backbenchers in his own party[14], a resurgent Labour party taking advantage of the continued doldrums of the UK economy[15], and the poaching of conservative voters from an increasingly popular UK Independence Party (UKIP)[16]. Although far from becoming a second party threat, the UKIP is nevertheless polling on a par with the Liberal Democrats at roughly 10% of voters. Labour and the Liberal Democrats also face a quandary: if they outright oppose a referendum which is popular with British voters [20], they will end up looking elitist and anti-democratic.
Cameron is hoping to reap the short-term domestic benefits without conceding much in the long-term.
Cameron clearly feels that in the long run-up to an actual referendum, pragmatism would win out… as long as he can secure an acceptable deal from his European partners. With the exception of Norway, exports to the UK represent only 6% to 7% of total exports for most European states. This strategy has borne fruit, with exports to the EU steadily declining as a percentage of total exports. The farther in the future the date of a referendum, the harder it will be to argue “catastrophic damage” to British voters. Germans value the British commitment to free and open markets, to trade liberalization and to the avoidance of undue regulations.
All factors point to a compromise solution: give the British some leeway on the social and immigration issues they keep banging on about, while leaving the most important economic and regulatory structures unchanged.
The EU has changed dramatically since the last time the British public voted on membership and they have the right to expect their voices to be heard.
This discrepancy is potentially do to exchange rate fluctuations and how they are accounted for within the year. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults.


Go ahead and boil it, freeze it, irradiate it, and toss it into the vacuum of space — it won’t die. One poor fellow at NASA accidentally depressurized his suit in a vacuum chamber in 1965 and lost consciousness after 15 seconds. And their descendants now crawl around Goldstein’s lab, totally unaware of how incredibly lucky they are to not be tortured by school children day in and day out. The next section examines three cases that illustrate many of the major factors influencing the human consequences of global change.
But because of uncertainty about how global environmental systems work, and because the people affected will probably live in circumstances very much different from those of today and may have different values, it is hard to know how present-day actions will affect them. Before the sea level rises, people may migrate, build dikes, or buy insurance, and the society and economy may have changed so that people's immediate responses--and therefore the costs of global change--may be different from what they would be in the present.
The human consequences of global change could then be defined as the difference between the state of humanity at the end of one grand scenario and the state of humanity at the end of a base case or reference scenario with a different natural-environment component. Neither do we devote much attention to improving forecasts of social and economic organization or of human values, even though these topics clearly belong to the social sciences and are critical to understanding the effects of global change. The impact-assessment tradition involves projecting the human consequences of a range of natural-environment scenarios under given assumptions about human response.
For example, European settlement of the Americas gave Europeans and, later, others access to a wider variety of food crops, making human survival less dependent, at least in principle, on a small number of staples that might be vulnerable to altered growing conditions caused by environmental change. It may involve direct interventions in the environment (type E in the figure) to counteract the effects of other human actions, direct interventions in the proximate human causes (type P), and interventions in the human systems (type H) that drive global change, intended to have an indirect or downstream effect on the proximate causes. They can intervene in human systems (type H) and indirectly control the proximate causes, by investing in research on renewable energy technologies to replace fossil fuel or providing tax incentives for more compact settlements to lower demand for transportation. Examples include evacuation from areas stricken with flood or drought, food shipments or financial assistance to those remaining in such areas, and development of synthetic substitutes for products previously obtained from extinct species.
For instance, modern societies have become highly dependent on fossil fuels and vulnerable to a serious disruption of supply or distribution systems. They may express a desire--or even claim a right--to influence the choices of people or governments continents away. The projected doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will take place about 80 years from now. Technological and social changes often eliminate problems without any specific mitigation efforts by changing the offending technology or making it obsolete. For example, it has recently been suggested that adding iron to the oceans to fertilize phytoplankton that would absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere may be a way to address the greenhouse effect (Martin et al., 1990). If people living in the 1890s had invested in preventing today's environmental problems, their expense on our behalf would probably have been made on the wrong problems, and it would have been an inequitable transfer of resources from a poorer generation to a richer one. Bringing down the birth rate in India to two children per couple in 1995 rather than in 2005 can make a difference of 300 million people by the time the Indian population stabilizes (Meadows, 19851. By the time it becomes clear that a response is needed, it may be too late to prevent catastrophe if the change is proceeding rapidly.
It is prudent to limit the pace and extent of such experiments because of the likelihood of unanticipated consequences. Some important and meaningful tradeoffs can be made on economic grounds, for instance, between investing in renewable energy development and in directly limiting the burning of fossil fuels. Such actions can achieve the benefits of mitigation at no extra cost, while providing other benefits.
Many analysts believe that if large-scale climate change results from human activities, the poorer countries are likely to suffer most because they lack resources they could use to adapt.
A response such as dike building seems much more appropriate when the sea threatens only a few areas. Informed people disagree because the remaining uncertainty leaves room for judgment, because they may assume different scenarios about the future of society, and because an outcome that harms what one person values may enhance what another values.
These institutions will need to provide accurate information, but should not expect information to resolve conflict.
Laurent Fabius of France warned Britain of the dangers of leaving the EU, and smugly noted that France would roll out the “red carpet” for British businesses[5]. The Liberal Democrats, while forming part of the coalition government, nevertheless expressed their disapproval. Led by the flamboyant Richard Branson  – at least in vociferousness – a group of British corporate bigwigs are preparing a pro-EU counteroffensive against Mr.
Progress on an Atlantic free trade agreement between the US and EU would significantly raise the costs to Britain from leaving. On the other hand, agreeing to the referendum benefits the Prime Minister and allows him to control the timing, pace and the initiative of the debate.
The City of London provides vital financial services to many European companies and is the only global financial center in Europe. The European Union is not a nation state and its institutions remain fragile – it is less clear to me that it could survive a British departure. For an institution that ostensibly supports democracy, the European Union has proven to be remarkably allergic to the democratic process.
Why evolve to survive the kind of cold that only scientists can create in a lab, and pressures that have never even existed on our planet? The following sections describe the human systems that are affected by or respond to global change, and how they interrelate. By this definition, a particular change in the natural environment has different consequences depending on the scenarios assumed for society, values, and responses.
We bypass these issues because the need for improved social, economic, and political forecasting is generic in the social sciences, and addressing this broad need would take us far beyond our charge to focus on human-environment interactions. The tradition of post hoc case analysis involves assessing the actual human outcomes after past environmental changes land given the responses that actually occurred), in the hope of drawing more general conclusions. World markets have subsequently reduced the number of major staple foods so that, in practice, people may eat no larger a variety of foods than before (Plotkin, 1988). If global climate change produces sufficient warming and drying (drought) on a regional scale, it may threaten the region's crops; development and adoption of drought-resistant crops or crop strains can break the connection between environmental change (drought) and famine by preventing crop failure.
Farmers, regions, and countries that rely on a range of crops with different requirements for growth may or may not produce less greenhouse or ozone-depleting gases than monoculturists.
They also support much larger and denser populations than ever before; such populations may be vulnerable to ecological changes affecting the viability of their food supplies. And the people or countries subjected to those claims may resist, especially when they feel that changing their behavior will mean suffering. By contrast, financial markets adjust in minutes, administered-market prices in weeks, labor markets in years, and the economic long run is usually reckoned at no more than two decades.
For example, boilers no longer explode on trains because they no longer use steam engines; horses are no longer the main polluters of urban streets. That proposal, whatever its ultimate feasibility or desirability (Lloyd, 1991), demonstrates that improved understanding of biogeochemical systems might generate promising new proposals for mitigating global change.
It probably makes no more sense for the current generation to sacrifice to benefit a future, even wealthier generation. To achieve the same effect by starting later would impose greater restrictions on the people living at that time. Even if catastrophe is unlikely, mitigation that slows the rate of change makes it more likely that adjustments can be made in time. If species are valued for themselves, their loss is irretrievable; even if they are valued only for what benefits they may have for humanity, species loss may be irretrievable.
Like natural mutations, most of these experiments are probably destined to fail, and there is only one global environment to experiment on. And if it became clear what each policy option--at the local, national, and international levels--would accomplish if enacted, some of them could easily be rejected. Case analyses of past social conflicts can be used to assess hypotheses drawn from such analytic frameworks. The institutions will need to make a place for the stakeholders to be represented from the earliest stages of the decision process, ensure openness in processes of policy decision, include mechanisms for the main actors to have access to relevant information from sources they trust, and use the conflicting perspectives and interpretations of current knowledge and uncertainty to inform the ongoing debate (National Research Council, 1989b; Stern, 1991). Party leader Nick Clegg said an “EU plebiscite is madness”[10], leading to years of uncertainty for UK businesses. The economic costs, though significant, are affordable: what is difficult to reconcile is the fundamental realignment of power within a Europe limited to the continent, a Europe even more obviously dominated by Germany. The fact that the United Kingdom is setting this example is very necessary to the long-term health of Europe. We conclude by offering some general principles for research and some research implications.
We offer only limited discussion of how future global change might proximally affect what humans value, because the variety of possible global changes and the uncertainty about the effects of each make it far too difficult to go into detail. Research in these traditions, combined with analysis of human response, can offer valuable insights into the human consequences of global change. High taxes on gasoline in Europe and Japan, enacted for reasons unrelated to the global environment, encouraged development and purchase of small, fuel-efficient automobiles that incidentally slow the pace of global warming. Similarly, loss of stratospheric ozone threatens light-skinned humans with skin cancer, through exposure to ultraviolet radiation; avoidance of extreme exposure to sun and application of sunscreens help prevent cancer, although they do not mitigate the destruction of the ozone layer. But polycultures are more robust in the face of drought, acid deposition, and ozone depletion. The further global change proceeds, the more likely it seems that it will be a source of conflict, including international conflict, over who has a right to influence the activities implicated as causes, who will pay the costs of responding, and how disputes will be settled. The implication for action is that what individuals and organizations do on their own in anticipating climate change may be sufficiently successful that organized, governmental responses will be superfluous. Concern about the greenhouse effects of fossil fuel burning will prove premature if development of fusion or solar energy technology can replace most fossil fuel use over the next 50 years.
Improved understanding of social systems has reasonable potential to discover other classes of effective response.
It is therefore easier to mitigate the effects of exponential growth the sooner the effort is made.
This is clearly the case for nonhuman organisms, such as tree species that can adjust to climatic change by migrating, as seedlings move to more favorable locations. Other environmental values, such as loss of the life-supporting capacity of wetlands or large bodies of water, may also be irretrievable; often we do not know until the values are lost. As the extent of human intervention in the global environment continues to increase, so does the strength of this argument.
If current economic activity destroys the life-support systems on which human life depends, what investment at compound interest could ever recoup this cost? After all, if Europe cannot convince its citizens that the benefits far outweigh the costs of membership, what future does it really have?
Instead, we review basic knowledge about how human systems respond to external stresses, in the context of discussing human responses. By bringing about technological change, these taxes also incidentally have helped make it easier for all countries--even those without high gasoline taxes or companies that produce fuel-efficient automobiles--to respond to the challenge of global warming with improved energy efficiency .
Tropical deforestation threatens species with extinction by eliminating their habitats; creation of forest preserves would provide many species sufficient habitat to survive, while doing little to slow net deforestation. The impact of climate change will reach people through slow price increases for the factors of production; in reasonably well-functioning markets, economic actors adapt readily to such changes.
It assumes that expenditures made now could otherwise be invested at compound interest in improvements in human well-being.
Such species have a maximum rate of migration, so can adjust to climatic change below that rate. The argument supports mitigation efforts that slow ongoing human interventions in the environment, but generally not those that would stop greenhouse warming by new interventions in the global environment.
Economic arguments also cannot deal with some things--including the balance of nature--on which people place intrinsic or spiritual value. In short, the debates are not only about the workings of human and environmental systems, but also about political and economic interests, conflicting values and faiths, differing assumptions about the future, and different judgments about resiliency in the face of the unexpected. Clegg was adamant that a referendum demand by the Tories would a “red line” during any future coalition talks. Similarly, families and communities that have both agricultural and nonagricultural income are harmed less by the same threats than purely agricultural groups. They invent industrial processes that economize on scarce inputs, find substitutes, purchase energy-efficient equipment when energy prices are rising, and so forth. If the growth rate for such investment exceeds the average rate at which environmental problems develop, people will be better off in the future if they do not spend on mitigation now.
To the extent people want to preserve such values, mitigation is the only acceptable approach. The conspirators finally succeeded when they boozed Mike up, ran a tube down his throat, and pumped him full of carbon monoxide.
In the past, such adjustments have contributed to human progress, and there is every reason to expect that pattern to continue.
Moreover, economic accountings systematically undervalue things--such as genetic resources--for which there are few property rights or for which economic value is only potential.




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