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Sunday the Governor of South Carolina explained that the state has not seen the current level of flooding in 1000 years.
A thousand-year-flood or a hundred-year-flood are shorthand descriptions for the annual exceedance probability for such a flood-event.
In the 1960’s, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program.
I have done some modest work with the Charleston, South Carolina region on community resilience. The biblical flooding in South Carolina is at least the sixth so-called 1-in-1,000 year rain event in the U.S.
Catastrophic rainstorms like this one happen only every thousand years, climate and weather experts explained as unprecedented flooding forced people out of their homes, closed roads and submerged stalled vehicles. Former Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen is fond of using that description of what Hurricane Katrina did to New Orleans. Thanks to the Alaska Dispatch News, here’s a transcript of the speech President Obama gave Monday evening (9PM Eastern) in Alaska. On Saturday, August 27 ten years ago, Hurricane Katrina was a CAT-3 still in the Gulf, but projected to hit along the Mississippi delta.
That weekend I was conducting counter-terrorism training in a windowless, Strangelovian room far from the Gulf. I perceive that over the next week Homeland Security morphed from being mostly threat-oriented toward much more engagement with vulnerability. Media and scholarly attention to the Tenth Anniversary of Katrina started in early August and has been surprisingly substantive.
Resilience in Survivors of Katrina (RISK) – This is an ongoing longitudinal study of several angles on several sub-populations. Recovery Diva – Claire Rubin has posted at least twenty thoughtful updates with multiple links.
REVERB – An exhibition (through November 1) at the Contemporary Art Center of New Orleans. It has been five years since an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon killed eleven and initiated several weeks of an uncontrolled release of oil from the well-head. What can and should be done, and sometimes not done, when dealing with big footprint, multi-consequence disasters that unfold over an extended period of time? Thad Allen, the former Coast Guard Commandant who was pulled out of retirement to serve as the National Incident Commander for the Gulf oil spill has tried to help us learn these lessons.
When I was designated as the national incident commander, I sat down with a small group of folks who became my cadre and senior staff. The Incident Command System that was established in New Orleans was the basis for… the coordination of command. If we look at what transpired, we need to know what the basic doctrine says against the reality of what we found on the ground… We did not have a large, monolithic oil spill. We have worked on smaller spills with state and local governments with smaller responsible parties. First, I think we need greater clarity moving forward on what the responsible parties, who they are, what they do, and how they interact with the contingency plan. The second notion was difficult for the people of this country to understand and our political leaders was ultimately, there is a fiduciary link between the responsible party and shareholders which would bring into question whether or not a decision should have been made based on the environment and the response itself.
There is a discussion about what constitutes an authority to take action, the day-to-day supervision of workers. Admiral Allen is one of those rare people who somehow speak more clearly than the transcript can sometimes capture. As time and space expand, typically so does the number and diversity of those involved in engagement. The evacuation of Richmond commenced in earnest Sunday night, closed at daylight on Monday morning with a terrific conflagration, which, was kindled by the Confederate authorities wantonly and recklessly applying the torch to Shockoe warehouse and other buildings in which was stored a large quantity of tobacco. At present we cannot do more than enumerate some of the most prominent buildings destroyed. At sunrise on Monday morning Richmond presented a spectacle that we hope never to witness again.
The streets were crowded with furniture and every description of wares, dashed down to be trampled in the mud or burned up where it lay. We regret to learn that a serious loss of life resulted from the blowing up of the powder magazine on the suburbs early on Monday morning. There has been a tendency to dismiss Haiti as Haiti, too forsaken to have any lessons for anyplace else. Several colleagues at the White House, DOD, and with various voluntary agencies have commented on important lessons that each of them learned. Recently I was in discussion with a long-time peace officer, together we were trying to make sense of a treacherous situation. God is a metaphor for a mystery that absolutely transcends all human categories of thought, even the categories of being and non-being.
What Campbell perceives as metaphorical many have encountered as palpably physical, emerging from the encounter transformed.
From this source some are motivated to frenetic external action, others to placid mindfulness. In all the great spiritual traditions we are also warned of our shared tendency toward error and corruption. Within this intricate system of metaphor, allegory and parable there are plenty of contradictions, but also intriguing coherence. In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God… And the Word became flesh and lived among us.
Resilience of building stock — It is interesting that this is treated as a matter of economic resilience as well as public safety. Resilience of the water system — This is what worries me most regarding the vulnerability of the Los Angeles basin.
Resilience of the telecommunications systems — This is a key interdependency that can divide or multiply every other response and recovery capability. These are three strategic elements within the ability of city government to seriously engage. For those not directly involved in humanitarian relief, the aftermath became a valuable case study in supply chain resilience… and too often suppression of such resilience. The Ebola outbreak is, almost certainly, a precursor for a future pandemic that will be much worse. The intention of Australian terrorists to undertake random attacks is, almost certainly, a precursor for such attacks there and elsewhere. In each case a current threat-vector is amplified by human behavior, especially increased population density and mobility.
We don’t know precisely when or how the virus was transferred to humans in this epidemic, but consumption of bushmeat infected with the virus is a good guess. At least 35 cases have been recorded by local health officials, said Sakoba Keita, the doctor in charge of the prevention of epidemics in Guinea’s Health Ministry.
Well into summer I assumed this Ebola outbreak would be contained as others have been contained. Black Swans are better ignored until their arrival – cynically, it reduces expectations for preparedness, responsibility and accountability if you do not acknowledge the possible threat. Given the context of this individual’s commentary over the years I do not take this as cynical. Bill, Claire, others: Are there longitudinal studies of the personality types attracted to Emergency Management? This personality type is especially well-suited for many aspects of public safety and disaster response. When was the last time you participated in a table-top or exercise that you would describe as rigorous random near-traumatic?
John Schwartz and the New York Times gave us an unusually thoughtful piece of journalism last Saturday: No Easy Way To Restrict Construction In Risky Areas. On December 16, 1994, a grain of sand landed at the site with coordinates [14, 17] on the pile.
During a long transient period, the pile evolved to a critical state with avalanches of all sizes. Historical narrative is inclined toward an understanding of reality where human intention, rationality and will can assert control. The Japanese architect’s practice is comprehensive, but he has given particular attention to innovative design, materials, and construction techniques for post-disaster settings.
As you might imagine this has stirred a bit of an uproar regarding the connection between climate change and natural disasters.
We can start to estimate how countries may weather crises differently thanks to a 2005 analysis of historical data on global disasters. When you next hear someone tell you that worthy and useful efforts to mitigate climate change will lead to fewer natural disasters, remember these numbers and instead focus on what we can control. There is some good news to be found in the ever-mounting toll of disaster losses. September 4, 2015 by Purves & Associates Blogging Team Protect the precious cargo on the road this school year with these driving safety tips. Obey The Law: This might seem like a no-brainer, but it can actually be a big complicated near school zones.


Call Ahead: Driving near school can get pretty hectic at the start of the day and when class lets out. Stop: When you see a bus out on the road, it’s always a good idea to drive carefully near it.
So you can focus on protecting the kids who are out on the road, let the experts protect you and your vehicle. Purves and Associates Insurance Agency is an independent insurance agency located in Davis, CA. Whether you’re seeking a comprehensive gas station insurance policy for your service station franchise or a California medical insurance plan while you’re in between jobs, we have you covered here at Purves and Associates Insurance Agency. We are committed to helping individuals, families, and businesses with risk management solutions and insurance services throughout California by offering a wide range of California business insurance and personal insurance policies. More than 18,000 people are believed to have been killed by the earthquake and tsunami tidal wave that swept through the country leaving a trail of destruction in its path.Details of the fuel storage at the power plant emerged in the records a presentation by Tokyo Electric Power Co to a conference organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The cascade of safety-related failures at the Fukushima plant is already strengthening the hand of reformers who argue that Japan's nuclear power industry will have to see sweeping changes from the top.Between 2005 to 2009 Fukushima had the highest accident rate of any big Japanese nuclear plant, according to data collected by the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization.
Nuclear industry analysts say an even more pressing question concerns the storage of fuel rods. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.
As of noon on May 25, a total of 266 aftershocks have been recorded, including four M 4s and 25 M 3s. The earthquake was felt over a wide area, from Klamath Falls, to Fallon, to Yosemite and to the SF Bay Area.
The hardest hit areas were located on the Lake Almanor Peninsula, Prattville, and the West Shore community where pantries emptied, items were tossed from tables and shelves and pictures were shaken from the walls.
There were numerous reports of light items toppling, chandeliers swinging and security alarms being set off. Holiday Market in Chester and Evergreen Market in Greenville reported their isles were littered with commercial items, including broken wine and liquor bottles, cereal boxes and other odds and ends. Considering the quake occurred on the cusp of the Memorial Day Holiday, numerous tourists were in the area or on route the following day.
There have been a plethora of rockfalls, including a truck-size rock topping from its cliff above Highway 89 between Pratteville and Rocky Point Campground. Surface pebbles along the southeast shore of Lake Almanor showed a vertical acceleration whereby they left the ground during the earthquake and came down in aside of their original location, leaving an exposed depression. The Canyondam M 5.7 earthquake occurred on the Mohawk Valley a€“ Lake Almanor fault zone, a prominent zone of faults that occur on the northern margin of the Sierra Nevada and extend from southern Sierra Valley to the Lassen Volcanic Center. Quality seismological monitoring of the region did not happen till the early 1970s and location of moderate to large earthquakes prior to that was relatively crude.
It is likely numerous earthquakes were associated with the Lassen Peak eruption of 1914 a€“ 1917, but there are no records of any measuring larger than M 5.0. If you are in the Lake Almanor a€“ Greenville area, please be advised to take your earthquake preparedness seriously. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation.
One can only hope that assessment holds true… We must work to prepare for the next disaster, even if it doesn’t happen for a thousand years. The state of Louisiana requested and received a Stafford Act declaration of a major disaster in anticipation of the hurricane’s impact. But we had the storm track and continuous news coverage displayed on several giant monitors.
Here at HLSWatch, Bill Cumming has offered several notes and links on the anniversary, see recent Friday Free Forums. I wanted to focus on what needed to be done about the universe — above the unified level that had been established.
We had hundreds of thousands of patches of oil that moved in different directions over time that moved beyond the geographical area that was contemplated in any response plan, putting the entire coast at risk. We have worked with the responsible parties for over 20 years, very effectively managing oil spills…There were two basic issues that were not well understood by most of the people of the US and political leaders: There would be a constructive role for the entity that was attributed to causing the event. The fire spread rapidly, and it was some time before the Fire Brigade could be gotten to work. The last of the Confederate officials had gone; the air was lurid with the smoke and flame of hundreds of houses weltering in a sea of fire. All the government storehouses were thrown open, and what could not be gotten off by the government was left to the people, who, everywhere ahead of the flames, rushed in, and secured immense amounts of bacon, clothing, boots, &c. The Danville and Petersburgh Railroad depots, and the buildings and shedding attached thereto, for the distance of half a mile from the north side of Main-street to the river, and between Eighth and Fifteenth streets, embracing upward of twenty blocks, presents one waste of smoking ruins, blackened walls and smoking chimnies. WEITZEL, about 10 o’clock, vigorous efforts were set on foot to stop the progress of the flames. Also friendship, feasting, forgiveness, extravagant gifts and considerable drinking of wine. Adding to the grains of sand already accumulated at this site, this addition caused a toppling of that site, spilling over to the neighboring sites. We were able to make a rough identification of the toppling rule and to construct a computer model of the phenomenon.
Last year in a poor region of the Philippines, a single storm, Typhoon Hayain, killed twice as many people. As countries become richer, they are better able to deal with disasters — meaning more people are protected and fewer lose their lives. While we may still have some weeks of warm weather ahead, the season is definitely coming to a close for school-aged kids as they’re all getting ready to head back to school. By calling the school in advance to ask about pick-up and drop-off protocol, you can easily fit in with the existing flow of traffic, ensuring you never create a problem. When it is stopped and has its red, flashing overhead lights on, you need to come to a complete stop and wait until those lights turn off. For all of your Sacramento, CA auto insurance needs, contact Purves & Associates Insurance Services.
Our independence is our strength – and our job is to provide the right coverage at a competitive price. The plant's workers were also exposed to more radiation than their peers at most other plants, the data shows. It is said that Japan's safety regulations may have given the power company too much room to manoeuvre as it sought to contain costs.When the quake hit, almost 4,000 uranium fuel assemblies were stored in deep pools of circulating water built into the highest floor of the Fukushima reactor buildings, according to company records.
The focal depth was about 6.8 miles and the type of fault movement was strike-slip with a slight oblique component. Items were tossed from tables and shelves, pictures were knocked from walls and many, many people became excited and were genuinely frightened. Some large pieces of furniture and appliances moved several inches from their original positions. The largest loss was reported from The Pines restaurant and bar where over $4,000 of glass and liquor damage was reported.
Some of the faults have been studied and evaluated to be capable of maximum earthquakes in the upper M 6s to low M 7s, but most have not or lack quality exposures and opportunities for technical evaluation. Most of them occurred on the eastern side of the Sierra in the Reno a€“ Carson City corridor, but there were a few in the northern Sierra. In 1975, the Lake Oroville M 5.7 earthquake caused some minor surface fault ruptures that nearly extended into the Oroville Dam. There are unconfirmed reports of springs around the mountain showing increased turbidity (cloudy sediment) from the Canyondam earthquake, including those at Domingo Springs. Aftershocks are likely to continue for a while and some may be as strong or stronger than the main shock.
Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the “100-year flood”. Late Saturday afternoon the mayor of New Orleans (finally) encouraged voluntary evacuation of the city. We would leave tactical control as close to the problem as we could… I would like to characterize the national incident command as a thin client. From a homeland security perspective our current situation is much less dire than the context reported below, even as the Union was successfully reclaimed. A fresh breeze was blowing from the south, and the fire swept over great space in an incredible short space of time. The master-metaphor is reinforced with a crowded collection of metaphorical set-pieces, most of which suggest tension and conflict as furrows from which love may flower. There is unrelenting delight in words that surprise, shattering settled understanding, and seducing any having ears to radically re-imagine human possibility. Until the last four decades its natural range was isolated from humans and, especially, human networks. Unfortunately, one of these sites [14, 18] happened to be near an instability so that the toppling caused this site to topple also. The first bell of the school year should bring some changes for you, too, at least on the road.
Carefully read all the signage and, when unsure, drive slowly and carefully through a school zone.


They mean that the bus is loading or unloading passengers, and you are legally required to wait until the passengers are safely at their destination before driving again. We have years of experience protecting drivers in Davis, Sacramento, and the neighboring California cities. As a leading California insurance agency we’re proud to be family owned and operated for two generations. Fukushima Daiichi had over time been pushing the limits of the plant's capacity to store uranium fuel on site, according to a Tokyo Electric presentation from November 2010 and now circulating among safety experts and environmental critics.The Tokyo Electric researcher who prepared that presentation on the safety of spent fuel at the complex, Yumiko Kumano, could not be reached for comment. The orientation of the slip is likely to be west-northwest and the directivity is likely up and to the west from the hypocenter (the point of rupture origin at depth). Based upon the reports of damage from thousands of sources, the US Geological Survey has assigned a Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale of VII, which indicates a moderately strong earthquake. Drink glasses from three overhead racks emptied, liquor and wine bottles from bar shelves spilled out and other commercial items were dumped to the floor.
Others are very wary about staying, fearing more aftershocks or another moderate or large shock.
PG&E has checked on the Lake Almanor and Butt Reservoir Dams at lease twice and has not observed any signs of damage or compromise. Some are obviously Holocene in age (<13,000 years old) and some of these have moved with large earthquakes at least two or three times. Advanced Geologic will be leading a team of experts to observe and sample both cold and hot water springs there and in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Be advised to have extra food and medical supplies, take care of children and the elderly, and be alert when driving in the mountains, as rocks could tumble off the roadside cliffs at anytime. Scientists and engineers frequently use statistical probability (chance) to put a context to floods and their occurrence. What can the lessons-learned from five years ago tell us regarding drought, sea-level rise, pandemics, and other disasters that are as much cumulative as acute? By noon the flames had transformed into a desert waste that portion of the city bounded between Seventh and Fifteenth streets, from Main-street to the river, comprising the main business portion. The flames east on Main-street, were checked by the blowing up of the Traders’ Bank about noon. I underestimated the power-amplifiers of human need and social interaction and fear… multiplied exponentially as the vector penetrates more deeply into the matrix. But assiduously working through strategic scenarios with tactical details can be helpful to expose preparedness issues. They are not very comfortable winging it or blazing new trails; working steadily within the system is the Guardian way, for in the long run loyalty, discipline, and teamwork get the job done right. This toppling destabilized sites [14, 19] and [15, 18] and eventually led to the collapse of a large part of the pile. In any case, we do not have sufficient information about the details of the system to be able to make long-term predictions. What the professor sees as a string of freak events appearing accidentally and mysteriously by an apparent act of God and leading to a catastrophe is simply a manifestation of the criticality of the system. We're going to have a real debate on this.'On Sunday, Japan continued its battle to avoid large-scale nuclear disaster.
A spokesman for TEPCO declined to comment on its fuel storage decisions and whether they contributed to the crisis.'Our focus now is on responding to the situation at Fukushima,' he said. Moderate damage was also reported in Greenville and Crescent Mills, and other parts of Indian Valley. Fortunately, the restaurant and bar were not open on Thursday night, else injuries would likely have occurred. Some of the Holocene displacements are on the order of 5-10 meters (15-30 feet), which clearly suggests large earthquakes have occurred on those faults more than once.
The most recent prior to the Canyondam quake happened on October 27, 2011 and was center two miles north of Quincy at Quincy Junction.
It should be noted that the Canyondam earthquake was caused by tectonic forces unrelated to magma under the Lassen Volcanic Center, however, the shaking could have had some influence on the groundwater reservoir and its conduits.
If the probability of a particular flood magnitude being equaled or exceeded is known, then risk can be assessed. Necessary to integrate but no more than what is necessary and without adding layers of bureaucracy. The second is the fiduciary link between the representative of the responsible party and unified command and their shareholders. We can form no estimate at this moment of the number of houses destroyed, but public and private they will certainly number six or eight hundred. This is especially the case if tactical planning is consistently framed and facilitated to achieve strategic purposes. History has prepared the sandpile in a state that is far from equilibrium, and the matrix through which the avalanche propagates is predisposed to accommodate events of large sizes.
Workers restored electrical power to parts of the plant and brought down radiation levels with a marathon water-spraying operation that, among other things, finally flooded Reactor 4's waste-fuel pool. Many residents living close to sites proposed for storage facilities strongly object to the buildings amid fears of the radiation.A medium-term storage facility for waste from Fukushima Daiichi being built in the small village of Mutsu in northern Japan is not scheduled to open until 2012.
The Fukushima Daiichi plant is Tokyo Electric's oldest nuclear facility, and it has been the site of a series of high-profile safety lapses going back a decade.In 2002, TEPCO admitted to safety regulators that it had falsified safety records at the No. No broken picture windows have been reported and there were no reports of serious injuries besides some minor cuts and scratches and many frayed nerves. Also noteworthy and located within the Mohawk Valley fault zone was a M 5.1 on November 26, 1998 just north of Graeagle at Mt. To determine these probabilities all the annual peak streamflow values measured at a streamgage are examined.
There are legal requirements for documenting costs which you have to carry on a balance sheet that they cannot sever.
Never before has so much monetary value been so concentrated and (at least virtually) proximate. They are cautious about change, even though they know that change can be healthy for an institution.
As a child of civil war, I disbelieve in structured learning… Provided we have the right type of rigor, we need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all those things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock. First, had the initial grain of sand fallen elsewhere, nothing dramatic would have happened. We monitored how many avalanches of each size occurred, after the addition of a single grain to the pile. But the latest incidents add to a record of safety sanctions and misses at Tokyo Electric - more commonly known as TEPCO - that date back a decade and continued into the weeks before the quake.Under two weeks before Fukushima Daichi was sent into partial meltdown, the power company had told safety regulators it had failed to inspect 33 pieces of equipment at the plant, including a backup power generator, according to a filing. A streamgage is a location on a river where the height of the water and the quantity of flow (streamflow) are recorded.
Violence is naturally occurring in human populations, its mimetic mutations now facilitated by many more of us in communication, contact, and perceived competition. Also, if the configuration at position [14, 19] had been slightly different, the sandslide would have stopped sooner, without devastating consequences. While we can give an accurate and complete account of what actually happened, we are at a loss to explain how these many accidental features could possibly have conspired to produce an event of such magnitude. 2), and found that the distribution of events where a total of s sites topple obeys a power law, P(s)- s-T. Geological Survey (USGS) operates more than 7,500 streamgages nationwide (see map) that allow for assessment of the probability of floods. The event was contingent upon many separate, freak occurrences and could clearly have been prevented.
Thus, if one waits long enough, one is bound to see events that are as large as one has the patience to wait for.
Energy Department determined that workers at Japan's Tokaimura fuel plant had been given insufficient training before they accidentally touched off an uncontrolled nuclear chain reaction.
Examining all the annual peak streamflow values that occurred at a streamgage with time allows us to estimate the AEP for various flood magnitudes. Furthermore, we are baffled by the fact that even though sand had been added to the system for a longtime, only minor events had occurred before the devastating collapse, and we had every right to expect the system to be stable. Three workers were severely injured in the incident, which forced tens of thousands to evacuate.Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency was established in 2001 in part because of that criticism.
For example, we can say there is a 1 in 100 chance that next year’s flood will equal or exceed the 1-percent AEP flood.
Clearly, the event was a freak one caused by very unusual and unfortunate circumstances in an otherwise stable system that appeared to be in balance. Eliminating the particular grain of sand that caused a particular avalanche only made the system produce large avalanches somewhere else at different times. But critics have questioned whether it has enough distance from the industry it regulates or the resources it needs. More recently, people talk about larger floods, such as the “500- year flood,” as tolerance for risk is reduced and increased protection from flooding is desired.



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