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Obama has committed triple mortal sins in the face of the godly chosen ones, first he did not strike Iran, then he negotiated an Iran nuclear agreement that Bibi mightily opposed, now he has really done it, like a goof he let Russia take over Syria.  Russia is in Syria to stay and the great Jew dream of an Israel superstate is now dead as a doornail. These insane comments from those seeking the highest office proves not only the whore vassal state of America, but that the political players are complete idiots and seriously dangerous.
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A recent poll targeting over 3,000 people in France, Germany and the UK has recently revealed that as little as 13 percent of Europeans think the Soviet Army played the leading role in liberating Europe from Nazism during WW2.
The head of the presidential administration, Sergey Ivanov, stated earlier this month that attempts to diminish the role played by Russia in defeating Nazi Germany through rewriting history by some Western countries are part of the ongoing campaign to isolate and alienate Russia.
You know, I go away for a week to attend to some family business, and things just get silly. In theory, a strike against the United States would have to eliminate 450 or so land-based missiles.
If ICBMs were to be eliminated, the number of aim points for the Russian or Chinese missiles would be reduced from about 460 to six.
This led Eli Jacobs, the program coordinator and research assistant for the Defense and National Security Group at CSIS, to examine this claim in a lot more detail (and with some very cool, Strangelove-like maps).
Now, I expect this kind of stop-reductions-at-all-costs sort of number-juggling from Heritage. In fact, I once admired Heritage: I was in college when the conservative think-tank burst on the scene in the first Reagan administration, and I can remember thinking what a refreshing voice they were after the defeatism and gloom of the 1970s. It might be hard to remember now, but in the late 1970s, there was a pretty pessimistic feeling out there in the U.S.
But at some point, Heritage needs to set a forwarding address and move to the 21st century. Worse, Heritage is wasting some important opportunities here, because they’re right, but for the wrong reasons. I’ll explain in a moment why we need those land-based ICBMs, but first, I just want to return to this point about missed opportunities. The problem for American liberals is that they were in favor of nuclear reductions even when nuclear reductions weren’t a good idea.
In other words, both the right and the left burned a lot of credibility on this issue a long time ago.
But there’s no way to take any of this seriously, because this is just not the way normal human beings think about nuclear arms.
Arguably, possessing a nuclear arsenal that can withstand a first strike is of diminishing importance post-Cold War.
So how many aim points we really need in the continental United States (CONUS, for us security experts) in order to deter a nuclear strike? No matter how few strategic nuclear weapons the United States will ever possess, there is no way, no sensible plan, in which the United States nuclear force is attacked without attacking the U.S. Personally, I’d add that any possible enemy who contemplates a nuclear strike against the United States but has no plan to obliterate the Pentagon and everything around it is dumber than a bag of hammers, and just asking for the world of hurt that will eventually come down.
This means killing hundreds of thousands of Americans instantly, and many more over time from the effects of fallout and contamination. Retaining a land-based retaliatory capability should be organized around reinforcing a much simpler model of deterrence than the intricate plans and strikes and follow-on strikes and all that malarkey that used to occupy nuclear thinkers all day.
It should send one clear message: that the United States, for the near future, will maintain a very small nuclear force whose only purpose is to guarantee the continued existence of the United States by deterring any notion of using similar weapons against us. Second, I think the tension created by my decision to “take a dive” and argue that numbers still matter is easily resolved with a little bit of context.
Third, your argument that ICBMs are valuable because they force an attacker to deal significant damage to the continental US (making the threat of retaliation more credible) is interesting, but I don’t think it’s correct. I’m not sure the triad still needs to exist, but I do take your point that people talk about it as if it would still function in the same way today as it did in 1970 if it had 1 bomber, 1 sub, and 1 land-based ICBM. And as always, my challenge to this kind is scenario planning (and this more for your colleague at Heritage than you) is to ask Michael Howard’s question: This war, what is is about?
As to the submarines, there was a collision between two boomer subs, not of course Ohio, but not antiquated either, that some wondered as to total invulneability being the case, if of course to take out subs, one would for sure be using tactical nuclear weapons, to make sure. As to targeting points, it all depends of C4RSI, as to redundancy, although I can generate a scenario that has a real-world event some wondered about as to a missile field com-links failing. The Famous Greek Lamb RecipeAs promised, this is the recipe for my Greek grandmother's lamb.
DisclaimerThe War Room is a non-partisan blog on politics, foreign policy, and anything else that catches Tom’s attention. The AAUP’s 1940 Statement of Principles:“College and university teachers are citizens, members of a learned profession, and officers of an educational institution. Report by one of Israel's largest brokerage houses, Clal Finance, says military action against Iran nuclear sites will be deterred by forecast of rising oil prices and damage to global trade; UN's Ban Ki-moon urges against military strike.
A leading Israeli investment firm said on Thursday any military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would exact an economic price too high for the world to accept, and as a result, it would likely acquiesce to a nuclear Iran. A sharp rise in the price of oil, the costs of war and the damage to global trade would be too great and deter world powers from taking any serious action, said Amir Kahanovich, chief economist at Clal Finance, one of Israel's largest brokerage houses.
Even for Israel the economic cost of a military confrontation that could include retaliatory missile attacks by Tehran and proxies in Gaza and Lebanon would be too high, Kahanovich wrote. Meanwhile, on Thursday UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff with Tehran in an apparent reaction to media speculation that Israel might attack Iran's atomic facilities.
For people who are into metrics, here are the daily, weekly, and monthly pageview graphs of the NUKEMAP from Google Analytics. OK, so Jon Stewart posted something that was originally from ABC News, so technically ABC News was into it, but it’s still Jon Stewart! I grew up about 15 miles away from Cheltenham, and we always assumed that it would be one of the first places to get bombed.
As we were over a few hills our village would probably survive the initial detonation, only to be covered with fallout. I assume there’s still a warhead in a silo somewhere with the co-ordinates of my home town programmed into it.
My mum used to keep enough paracetamol in the bathroom cabinet to kill the whole family, which is horribly messed up when you think about it.

I think you might be right, but I wouldn’t say it was purely a result of American development patterns. The HYDESim tool shows the 0.25 psi overpressure contour, which covers the area in which glass is broken. Actually, I did want to say: if you have math skills and would like to be of assistance, let me know. They are there, but they are not nearly as numerous as the dots in the US, Europe, and East Asia, so they get dimmed out quite a bit by the Google Maps heatmap API. Also, when I did my analysis on the first million, there were about 13,800 in India and 8,500 in Pakistan. Restricted Data is a blog about nuclear secrecy, past and present, run by Alex Wellerstein, a historian of science at the Stevens Institute of Technology. Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.
A professor of cognitive science argues that the world is nothing like the one we experience through our senses. Every week, for the sixth season of Game of Thrones, Christopher Orr, Spencer Kornhaber, and Lenika Cruz will be discussing new episodes of the HBO drama. Why a high school senior feels alienated from activist groups that share causes in which he believes.
In January of 1944, in the midst of the terrifying days of World War II, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt unveiled a huge idea in his State of the Union address. A new report demonstrates a stubborn chasm between rich and poor students earning bachelor’s degrees.
The nation’s colleges continue to graduate far fewer students who grew up in poor households. This presidential contest has been marked by unusually consistent cultural loyalties since it began, which could say a lot about the final result. An examination of the 22 state exit polls conducted so far by a consortium of media organizations indicates that the patterns of voter allegiance that emerged during the very first contests in February have largely persisted since. On both sides, the leading candidates have established clear patterns of support—and have faced largely intractable pockets of resistance. Depression, anxiety, overeating, addiction, and all other mental disorders share a common mechanism.
The Jews have used her up, having milked her dry they will not tolerate the whore who no longer does her bidding. Israel will now manuever the USA into war with Russia, disposing of the American ally that no longer does her bidding.  Israel attacks America over and over (USS Liberty, WTC in 1993 and 2001) and Americans do nothing except lapping the feet of their Jewish masters. The huge CUFI organization is fanning the flames of nuclear war, it is a Jewish psyop on the American mind, Americans are afraid to take on Israel! The majority of respondents – 43 percent – said the US Army played the main role in liberating Europe.
Those who are against the agreement (Republicans, Arab principalities, the American Jewish Committee, the Israeli Likud Party) do not believe that the agreement has real value because, in their minds, given the fundamental and outspoken aims of the Ayatollahs, war with Iran is inevitable. American domestic politics, the contests of the 2016 general election, will be dominated by foreign policy questions. Because of their large Arab populations and anti-Israeli left wing parties, European politicians would immediately become embroiled in questions of their allegiance to NATO and support for Israel. By rejecting the agreement, America decisively loses the diplomatic high ground and suffers the consequences of  diminished esteem on many diplomatic fronts. If they’re gone, all that would be left would be a handful of bomber bases and submarine pens.
This is insanity, given that both countries continue to expand and modernize their strategic arsenals.
The nuclear triad – composed of silo-based ballistic missiles, bombers, and ballistic missile submarines – currently consists of around 460 aim points, an amount that could be reduced to 8 or 9 were we to eliminate the ICBMs. That’s how things felt right about 1979, and the only oddity in the movie is that the winners of the global competition were the Chinese, not the Soviets. Getting rid of the land-based ICBM force is a terrible, even criminally stupid idea, but not for the weird, WarGames reasons that Heritage wants to defend. If the United States really is going to lead the way toward a world whose nuclear security is defined by very low numbers of nuclear arms, those initiatives are going to have to come from political conservatives, not liberals.
They allowed their cause to be championed by eccentrics like my personal favorite, Australian pediatrician and professional hysteric Helen Caldicott. But it’s hard to be supportive of that cause if places like Heritage are going to depict deterrence as a big game of nuclear aim-point Whack-a-Mole.
It would be difficult to persuasively argue that the United States continues to face a legitimate threat of a disarming first strike.
No plan for a disarming strike on the United States should ever have a plausible component to it in which CONUS escapes major damage. At this point, I’m basically fated never to think about nuclear arms like a normal human being, which makes it all the more refreshing to have someone engage my work so thoughtfully. My point is that the raw number of aim points is not decisive in our ability to avoid a nuclear bolt-from-the-blue, but the raw number of ICBMs is important when discussing the qualitative benefits provided by each leg of the triad. First of all, an attack on US ICBMs wouldn’t kill very many civilians—Minot, Warren, and Malmstrom AFBs are pretty much in the middle of nowhere.
Could be just one of those things, could have been a test of a reverse engineering of a failure mode (they ping the missiles to say hello, which can become dynamically unstable for the links to 50 missiles, has happened twice, once in 1994, once in about 2009). The posts on this site are personal opinions and do not reflect the position of any governmental, educational, or public interest organization.
When they speak or write as citizens, they should be free from institutional censorship or discipline, but their special position in the community imposes special obligations.
The assessment differed sharply from Israel's official position that Tehran's nuclear aspirations are unacceptable and that all options are on the table in preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, which it views as a threat to its existence.
After an initial big burst, it died down a bit (to 2,000 hits or so a day, mind you), punctuated by occasional new big bursts as it occasionally landed on the Reddit front page every once in awhile. The infographic shown by Jon Stewart derives  from a setting that was sent around on Reddit and elsewhere showing the effects of a 6 kiloton bomb on lower Manhattan, with 6 kilotons being one of the yield estimates of the 2009 North Korean test. An awful lot of people are amazed at how small the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were compared to thermonuclear weapons. So it would not be worth your time trying to influence how it looks at this point by bombing all over the place.

Unsurprisingly, this results in significant overkill against the housing and population of the targeted cities. When I had a look at this map it was pretty horrifying to see that even a 7 Kilo-tonne bomb would kill me instantly. Our minds aren’t wired to cope with that difference in scale, and discussion of the 1950s-1980s tended to centre around the bigger weapons.
Unsurprisingly given the use I’ve got out of the original version (I reckon at least 500 initiations all told) I have a few thoughts where you might go. My eighty year old first generation suburb was comfortably outside the thermal radiation ring. And people at the current edge of suburbia, like those in McKinney, would be 30 miles away. This is quite useful, as the average person has no problem appreciating that kind of damage as being quite severe. There are a few instances in which I have models for things like fallout dispersal where I could really use some assistance in simplifying the equations and turning them into something I could use in my scripting. From what I can tell, a lot of them are not only overly complicated (like that one, which is really much more first-principles than I want for something like NUKEMAP — particle size estimations and all that) but don’t perform very well. There stands the Red Woman, Melisandre, the goddess behind so much of the show’s deus ex machina, in her bedroom. Because no screeners are being made available to critics in advance this year, we'll be posting our thoughts in installments. The nation had fought its enemies to ensure its residents remained free, he said, but American citizens could not be truly free if they were constantly worrying about where their next meal was coming from or if they could afford a roof over their heads.
With well-paying jobs in manufacturing and the trades largely a relic of the nation’s industrial past, the middle-class pathways for workers with just a high-school education are few and far between. With rejection of the agreement, a "pre-emptive war" is much more likely to come sooner rather than later – before the Persians have an atom bomb. Americans will be asked to decide whether they favor belligerence over diplomacy, whether Obama’s way is the American way or not. In effect, If Congress vetoes the treaty, America suffers a major diplomatic defeat and leaves our government with few options other than war against a major power in a volatile region.
Further, even if these threats could manifest at some point in the future, the submarine leg of the triad is by far the most secure.
But if it does, whoever launched that attack is going to be eradicated as a political entity.
Tim McDonnell made a similar point in a comment on the original post, and it’s definitely true.
This latter fact is interesting because folks tend to talk about legs of the triad without reference to their numbers—as if survivability is an inherent characteristic of the subs, signaling an inherent characteristic of the bombers, etc. Minot, ND has about 45,000 people, and Cheyenne, WY and Great Falls, MT each have about 60,000.
As scholars and educational officers, they should remember that the public may judge their profession and their institution by their utterances. This is especially the case, of course, for the bomber-carried devices, as these can more readily be retargeted.
In any case, some 140 devices directed against 70 targets (bunkers, dockyards and airfields) ought to be ground bursts. That we forget how much larger those are than their predecessors isn’t surprising, really. Actually, my house would be about the same distance from ground zero as Oppenheimer and others were to the Trinity gadget and while that blast made an overwhelming impression on them, it didn’t seem to put them in any great danger.
I live in a Victorian era low-rise block close to the centre of a major city, and 20 kilotons over my head would leave the suburbs, and half of the city centre proper, outside the rings. It is doubtful that the majority would oppose the use of the American military to defeat a perceived enemy. The State Department would be diminished and the Defense Department’s dominant role in foreign affairs will, once again, be affirmed. The technological capabilities of our adversaries will continue to improve, to be sure, but there is no foreseeable route to rendering the seas transparent. The idea that numbers influence the qualitative characteristics of the ICBM leg of the triad is wholly consistent with the idea that numbers may not be the whole story in discussing aim points. I attribute a lot of the success I’ve had with this blog to the NUKEMAP, as a driver of traffic.
I’ve similarly eyeballed the attack on London, assuming here that the eight one-megaton warheads would be dual-targeted on four DGZs. 3 hurricane or F2 tornado exerts – I’d imagine these are more familiar measures in Texas than in Britain! There are a lot more that are not in the presets but it is hard to get an aggregate of them. The answer: 47 percent of respondents said that either they would cover the expense by borrowing or selling something, or they would not be able to come up with the $400 at all. Although deployed SSBNs only constitute a handful of aim points, this handful may be sufficient to deter. There are other modes of pre-delegation that might exist, if that of course has its risks too, as there is a definite tension between centralized command and control, i.e. A few percent of the visitors look at the blog; a few percent of them become regular readers. For military sites, Barksdale AFB is directly east of Shreveport (pop 220,000) and Seattle (610,000) is less than 20 miles downwind of Bangor.
That’s not my goal — my goal is to help people get a sense of scale, something that I think is even more important in a post-Cold War age.
For command and control installations, STRATCOM is just southeast of Omaha (410,000), and the Pentagon is (obviously) right near DC (5.6 million). An attack that attempted to eliminate US nuclear warfighting capabilities would cause tons of civilian casualties, but relatively few of them would result from attacks of US ICBMs. All that remains is her necklace—a choker made of metal, completed with a red stone.

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