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At a time when other countries are scaling back their nuclear energy programs, China has been plowing ahead.
But even as impressive as those numbers sound, nuclear power still accounts for less than 2% China’s electricity.
Engineering problems and delays are also a major culprit, and may prevent China from meeting its scaled-down nuclear power goals. Public resistance to nuclear is also a problem in China, which imposed a six-month hiatus on the construction of new nuclear plants after the partial meltdown of nuclear reactors in Fukushima in 2011. Thin Lines Icons Set Of Ecology Nature And Environment Conservation, Green Energy Efficiency, Electricity Power Consumption. Thin lines icons set of ecology nature and environment conservation, green energy efficiency, electricity power consumption.
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Illustration environmentally friendly planet.Energy saving eco lamp,from watercolor stains,isolated on a white background. All plans come as a Standard license, and can be upgraded to an Enhanced license at any time. Petroleum & Other LiquidsCrude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural GasExploration and reserves, storage, imports and exports, production, prices, sales. ElectricitySales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions. Consumption & EfficiencyEnergy use in homes, commercial buildings, manufacturing, and transportation. CoalReserves, production, prices, employ- ment and productivity, distribution, stocks, imports and exports. Renewable &Alternative FuelsIncludes hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and ethanol. Total EnergyComprehensive data summaries, comparisons, analysis, and projections integrated across all energy sources.
Analysis & ProjectionsMonthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, Congressional reports. Markets & FinanceFinancial market analysis and financial data for major energy companies. InternationalInternational energy information, including overviews, rankings, data, and analyses. Flood Vulnerability Assessment Map - Interactive map that includes flood hazard information from FEMA as well as energy infrastructure layers. To get best possible experience using our website we recommend that you upgrade to a newer version or other web browser. Because of tougher regulations adopted in early 2000s, the use of electricity in American homes has dropped for a third year in a row, to the levels of more than a decade ago. The Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers says power-hungry appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, dryers, water heaters and air-conditioners now use much less energy. The association says some LED TVs are as much as 80 percent more efficient than classic cathode ray tube sets. Majority of Americans believe they're living the dream, but is reality catching up with them? April 26 marks the 30th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster – when a reactor at a nuclear power plant in then Soviet-controlled Ukraine exploded, releasing huge amounts of radiation. As Nepal marks the one year anniversary of its devastating earthquake, Nepalis’ reflect on the government’s delayed recovery response. All today’s nuclear power plants make energy by thge splitting of uranium atoms -- which creates a lot of useful heat but also a lot of dangerous and deadly nuclear waste. America's high-tech center of Silicon Valley, near San Francisco, continues to grow, and much of the energy is coming from immigrant entrepreneurs.
The expulsion of Islamic State forces from historically significant sites in Syria has shed light on the overall damage they inflicted on the country’s priceless past. During the current presidential campaign, anti-immigrant sentiment seems to have grown in the U.S.
As Myanmar emerges from a half-century of stagnation under a military regime, all eyes are on the new government to protect its most vulnerable citizens - underage children who are made to work instead of going to school. A popular Kenyan cartoon series, Tinga Tinga Tales, has been adapted into a live musical performance. Many parts of Asia, Africa and the Americas are scorching in heat caused by a cyclical phenomenon known as El Nino.
El Salvador is one of the Latin American countries that showed a dramatic improvement in its economic freedom.
To analyze the Mexican economic history corresponding to the data in Figure 1, we follow a theoretical framework proposed by Kehoe and Ruhl (2010), who in turn follow Parente and Prescott (1994, 2002) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007). During this period, the growth of the agricultural sector was related to industrialization. The private sector pushed for a process of Mexicanization (mexicanización) of the economy.
One of the possible reasons behind the large contraction in Mexico is the synchronization between manufacturing activity in Mexico and in the United States. The calibration of the parameters of the model and the computation of its equilibrium follow Bergoeing et al. Identifying an inefficient financial system and lack of contract enforcement as the factors that retard Mexican growth generates a puzzle because China also suffers from these problems.
In the theory that we propose, it is easier to grow faster than the industrial leader when an economy is far behind. Its largest nuclear energy companies are considering initial public offerings to raise over $2 billion, and Chinese researchers are racing to build the world’s first nuclear plant that runs on thorium. For the past few years, others forms of low-carbon energy sources have widened their lead over nuclear. Because nuclear power plants take so long to build, and China’s energy demands are imminent, other forms of renewable energy like wind and hydropower have taken precedence. As Grist points out, even if all Chinese nuclear capacity currently under construction were to become operational in the next six years, China would have reached only 45 gigawatts by 2020, well shy of its 58 gigawatts goal. But China is spending over 1 trillion yuan ($162.8 billion) to upgrade and expand its grid. Last year, a nuclear fuel processing plant in the southern province of Guangdong was canceled because of local protests. Everyone who signs up gets full access to our entire library, including our curated collections. Our Standard license allows you to use images for anything, except large print runs over 500,000+ or for merchandising. Once you have downloaded your image, you have life-long rights to use it under the terms of the license purchased. Another factor is the drop in prices of insulated windows and other building materials that reduce energy loss. Electric Power Research Institute says the power for an iPad costs only $1.36 per year while powering a desktop computer may cost almost $30 annually. Department of Energy says it could help save as much energy as the output of 44 large power plants by 2027. The left-wing Paris movement that began to protest government labor reforms has spread to other French and European towns, taken on a hodgepodge of different grievances and sparked talk of social revolution.
But for one Virginia community outside the nation's capital, home to more than 130 ethnic groups, diversity is not an issue but an asset. The unusually warm waters that come up to the surface in the Pacific Ocean every three to six years cause extreme weather conditions. Between 1945 and 1952, the agricultural sector grew more because of the extensive margin than because of a higher yield by hectare. Starting in the 1950s, but especially at the beginning of the 1960s, businessmen pressured the government to provide them with additional protection from foreign competition beyond tariffs.
Chiquiar and Ramos-Francia (2005) find that the correlation between the Mexican and United States manufacturing sectors increased after NAFTA.
Fluctuations in factor utilization also show up as fluctuations in TFP, although this is probably more important in studying business cycle moments, like the 1994-1995 financial crisis in Mexico, than it is in studying growth over a decade or longer. MEXICO VERSUS CHINA China is another large, less-developed country that has opened itself to foreign trade and investment, and to which Mexico is often compared. Spectacular Chinese growth as it has opened provides evidence that Mexico would have grown even faster during 1950-1981 if it had opened itself then. China has been able to grow with a poorly functioning financial and legal system, despite the lack of significant reforms to these systems (Rawski 1994, Allen, Qian, and Qian 2005). Advanced plants that could bring higher efficiency, like a thorium reactor, will still require years of work to resolve engineering issues, researchers say.
As of last year, 84% of the country’s wind capacity was connected to the grid, from 72% in 2011, and the amount of wind-generated electricity wasted in transfer has fallen to 11% from 16% over the same period, according to Fitch Ratings.
If at any time you're unsatisfied with your experience with us, you can cancel your subscription. Henry Ridgwell reports from Chernobyl on the emotional heartbreak still felt three decades later – and the eerie ghost towns left behind.
Zlatica Hoke reports the resulting drought is especially hard on the poorest people of sub-Saharan Africa. This allowed the country to reduce its inflation rate from 23 percent in 1990 to 4.6 percent in 1997, one of the lowest rates in the Central America region. We hypothesize that, by 1995, Mexico had arrived at the balanced-growth path that its policies and institutions warranted. At the beginning of the Porfiriato, the economic geography of Mexico could be described as a collection of small economic units that functioned in an autarkic way, producing goods for self-consumption. Madero led an uprising against Porfirio Díaz, resulted in a large fall in the population and a large destruction of the capital stock. Here the urban population is defined as that living in agglomerations of more than 2,500 inhabitants. Looking at data on real value added by industry for the United States, we see that manufacturing fell approximately 9 percent between 2008 and 2009. During its import substitution period, Mexico paid for very expensive domestically produced intermediate goods and capital goods, while China imports these sorts of goods cheaply from abroad.
Studying the Chinese experience, Guariglia and Poncet (2008) go so far as to question whether an efficient financial system is necessary for growth.
As the country gets closer to the industrial leader, however, rapid growth stops and the country levels off at the trend growth rate of GDP per working-age person of 2 percent per year or a little less.
Scientists from 35 nations, including United States, Russia and China, are painstakingly trying to solve the problem. In addition, legalization of foreign-currency bank accounts, a reduction in government consumption expenditure, relaxation of exchange-rate controls, a stronger legal system and a lower exchange-rate premium in the black market have contributed to the improvement in El Salvador's economic freedom rating. This was due to a larger domestic and external demand, the growth of cities, and the process of industrialization. Similar graphs are obtained for other definitions of urban population, but there are more data for this definition.
Businessmen were also able to set barriers to entry in sectors that were considered strategic. The large fall in manufacturing in the United States can account for part of the contraction in manufacturing, and therefore for part of the overall fall in GDP in Mexico. Researchers like De Gregorio and Lee (2004) and Bosworth and Collins (2008), who use a growth accounting that looks at increases in output per worker as a function of variables that include capital per worker, typically find increases in TFP and increases in capital roughly equally important in accounting for growth. The growth of the productivity factor slows down over 1970-1981, even as in labor and capital factors increase.
Since we calibrate the parameters of the model to 1950-1960 data, we should not be surprised to see the model fit the data well for this period.
This seems to have occurred in Western Europe in the early 1970s, in Japan in the early 1990s, and in Chile in the late 1990s, to mention a few cases. Price controls in many markets have been eliminated and government participation in the economy has been reduced through an ambitious privatization process, especially in strategic sectors such as communications and electricity. Technology adoption gives rise to trend growth rates in the adopting countries close to 2 percent per year after capital and labor have had time to adjust.
Besides the reduction in population caused directly by the war, there was a large migration to the United States. The model now does much better in tracking the performance of the Mexican economy over 1982-2010. Notice that in Figure 13 China is still substantially behind Mexico in terms of urbanization and that in Figure 14 it is still substantially behind in terms of industrialization.5 It is only in the data on education in Figure 15 where China is ahead of Mexico. How far short of the industrial leader the country levels off depends on its institutions and economic policies.


Moreover, policies promoting trade liberalization and more freedom in financial and capital-market transactions have been adopted.
University of Minnesota, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and National Bureau of Economic Research. The absolute level of a particular country compared with the industrial leader depends on its institutions and economic policies. We identify the problems in the Mexican economy at which reforms could be targeted: (1) inefficiency of the financial system, (2) lack of contract enforcement, (3) inflexibility in the labor market, and (4) monopolies in nonmanufacturing sectors like electricity, telecommunications, transportation, and petroleum extraction.
As seen in Figure 6, the process of import substitution continued, now by producing domestically intermediate goods and capital goods, to make Mexico less dependent on foreign technology and on the need of having enough foreign currency to buy the goods that could not be produced domestically.
Our conclusion is that, if we take into account a major change in incentives to accumulate capital in the 1980s and if we can understand the evolution of TFP in Mexico, we understand most of the evolution of the Mexican macroeconomy over 1950-2010. Grobovsek (2011) presents evidence that inefficiencies among producers of intermediate goods is one of the principal determinants of low TFP in less-developed countries and that importing intermediate goods is a way to escape this problem. Studies of China's output growth, such as Brandt and Zhu (2009) and Hsieh and Klenow (2009), conclude that productivity growth arising from the reallocation of resources across firms is key.
Chile, for example, after spectacular growth following its great depression in the early 1980s, has had a level of real GDP per working-age person and a growth rate similar to those in Mexico since about 1998. Address: Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, 1925 Fourth Street South, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455. An economy that is far from the frontier can grow rapidly even with inefficient institutions and policies. The Mexican economy would also reap benefits from reducing violence related to drug trafficking. Migration from rural to urban areas was due to a lack of opportunities in the agricultural sector. Import substitution took place in the chemical and petrochemical industries, rubber, plastic, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, soap, detergents, and cosmetics. Connolly and Yi (2009) argue that a similar strategy of importing intermediate goods and exporting final manufactured goods played a major role in South Korea's growth miracle.
Unless China continues to reform, we can expect economic growth there to slow down sharply at some point. The migration to the United States and the flu epidemic must have disproportionately affected people with low education levels. The government also provided fiscal measures to foster the reinvestment of profits, and kept and expanded the policy of creation of new firms through subsidies, fiscal exemptions, and the support of Nacional Financiera, the largest of the government-operated development banks.
The capital-labor ratio grew 7 percent on average during this period, which increased real wages. In response to both the 1982 debt crisis and the 1994-1995 crisis, the government implemented fiscal austerity.
Mexico's import substitution policies prevented it from doing this and forced it to keep resources locked up producing goods where it did not have the comparative advantage. This suggests that the problem in Mexico is not a lack of productivity growth in manufacturing, but in the rest of the economy. From 2000 to 2008, the public sector deficit fell from 1 percent of GDP to approximately zero.3 In 2009 the deficit rose to slightly more than 2 percent of GDP. This modification, especially the modeling of the inflow of foreign investment in the early 1990s and its sudden stop in 1995-1996, can improve the performance of the model even further.
OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE Many open questions remain to be resolved for our theory to be useful in accounting for the economic development of countries like Mexico and China: In general, is openness to trade and foreign investment necessary for rapid growth when a country is very far behind the industrial leader? As did Mexico in the late 1980s and early 1990s, China opened itself to foreign trade and investment in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
As part of the policy of import substitution, the government set direct and indirect subsidies to the industrial sector. China's growth rate has been far higher than that of Mexico, however, even though China suffers from many of the same inefficiencies as Mexico. The policy of import substitution led to a reinforcement of the oligopolistic structure of the Mexican economy.
Some evidence for this hypothesis is the comparison of the data in Figures 13 and 14 with those in Figures 7 and 8.
Specific questions about the experience of Mexico remain to be resolved as well: Why was the period of rapid growth, 1995-2000, following the enactment of NAFTA so short?
In terms of our theory, the difference can be explained by the fact that China is still much poorer than Mexico and is reaping the benefits of its policies that promote urbanization, industrialization, and education, as did Mexico during 1950-1981.
If this investment by PEMEX is excluded from the deficit, the deficit-GDP ratio is approximately zero in 2009.
Of particular relevance for the theoretical framework that we sketch out in the next section are Lewis (2004) and Parente and Prescott (1994, 2002).
We see that China still has a far larger fraction of its population living in rural areas than does Mexico and that its economy still depends far more on agriculture.
Or, put another way, why was the recovery following the 1982-1995 great depression so modest? As China develops, problems like inefficiency in the financial system, lack of contract enforcement, and rigid labor markets will slow down growth there.
Cárdenas (1996) decomposes the sources of growth of industrial demand into domestic demand, external demand, import substitution, and structural change. Lewis (2004) uses case studies of different countries to show that productivity in other sectors, besides just manufacturing, is essential for determining relative income levels across countries.
It may be that Mexico's slower growth since 2000 is the product of the contraction of the U.S. The comparison with China is useful for thinking about the Mexican experience in that it provides evidence that, if liberalization of foreign trade and investment had accompanied the policies that promoted urbanization, industrialization, and education in 1950-1981, Mexico would have grown even more rapidly. As a result, Mexico had railways going from Mexico City to Veracruz, the main port in the Gulf of Mexico, and to the border with the United States.
For example, Obregón was not initially recognized as president by the United States. He also uses anecdotal evidence to argue that it is government policies that discourage the adoption of the best available technologies from the rest of the world that keeps countries relatively poor.
To compare China with Mexico in terms of absolute level of income, we use the purchasing power parity (PPP) real GDP data published by the World Bank (2008, 2011). Between 1954 and 1958 its contribution was 9 percent, a contribution smaller than in the 1930s.
Parente and Prescott (1994, 2002) develop a model in which it is government policies and institutions like monopolies that impede new technology adoption that keep productivity, and therefore income per capital, low.
Perhaps most importantly, what sorts of reforms does Mexico need to enact to resume rapid catch-up growth?
Growth stopped during the crises of 1982-1995, despite major reforms, including liberalization of foreign trade and investment. It is interesting to note that, between 1952 and 1958, 38 percent of private investment was destined to the purchase of imported machinery and equipment.
In 1961, a new mining law stated that fiscal incentives would be given only to firms in which the majority of capital was owned by Mexican nationals.
China has been growing more rapidly than Mexico, but it is still substantially poorer in 2010.
We hypothesize that these are reforms that eliminate the barriers to growth of an inefficient financial system, lack of contract enforcement, and rigidities in the labor market.
One direction would be to modify the one-sector growth model that we use in this paper to incorporate multiple sectors and to formalize Rostow's (1960) concept of stages of growth. Exporting firms (raw materials from mining being the principal Mexican export) saw their costs reduced.
In 1925, he created the Comisión Nacional de Caminos, which had the objective of expanding Mexico's road system. The government said that the increase from approximately zero in 2009 to 0.7 percent in 2010 was part of the countercyclical measures in response to the current international financial crisis.
Afterwards, the model produces a path for YtJNt that is substantially worse than that observed in the data.
In terms of more specific reforms, promoting competition in nonmanufacturing sectors like electricity, telecommunications, and transportation would spur productivity growth.
Another, related, direction would be to use an open economy model to quantify the costs and benefits of import substitution during Mexico's rapid growth of 1950-1981. The low production of iron, steel and sulfur led the government to invest in their production. Although this privatization policy maximized the revenues accrued from privatization, it resulted in inefficient monopolies in telecommunications and transportation. We conclude that the growth 1950-1981 was driven by urbanization, industrialization, and education and that Mexico would have grown even more rapidly if trade and investment had been liberalized sooner.
Over time, import substitution became difficult because it had to take place by producing intermediate and capital goods. In the case of the petrochemical industry, the maximum percentage of foreign capital was 40 percent. Given the observed values of At and Nt, the behavior of endogenous variables like Yt is very close to that in the data for 1950-1981. The behavior of other variables, like Ct, It, Lt, and Kt, is also very close, although we do not present all of the graphs.
In 1970 the government decided to Mexicanize the iron and steel industry, cement, glass, cellulose, fertilizers, and aluminum.
ECONOMIC HISTORY UP UNTIL 1950 Mexico's economic history from Independence in 1810 until the first inauguration of Porfirio Díaz as president in 1877 did not involve much economic growth.
In other words, given the performance of TFP, the evolution of the Mexican economy over 1950-1981 is very close to being what the model would predict. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK In this section, we use the theoretical framework developed by Kehoe and Ruhl (2010) to analyze Mexico's growth experience. We could expand the one-sector growth model discussed in Sections 4 and 5 to a model like those in Buera and Kaboski (forthcoming) and Echevarria (1997, 2008) with primary, manufacturing, and service sectors. One important change with respect to the Porfiriato is that the 1917 Constitution established the national interest in Mexico's natural resources. This measure was not retroactive, but existing foreign firms that planned to expand their plans or acquire new ones had to be authorized by the Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores (Department of Foreign Affairs).
The results also indicate that, had nothing else besides observed productivity and population changed after 1982, the Mexican economy would have done far worse than it actually did. In the next section, we use this framework to compare Mexico's experience with that of China.
The analysis in Xu (2011) indicates that it would also be useful to disaggregate manufacturing into intermediate goods and final goods.
Between 1833 and 1855, for example, Antonio López de Santa Anna was president during 11 nonconsecutive periods. The 1938 nationalization of the oil industry, in which there was an important amount of foreign investment, would reflect that interest in the coming decades. Additionally, the use of Mexican intermediate goods was required in many sectors, in particular in the production of cars, trucks and other durable goods. Kehoe and Ruhl (2010) follow Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007) in using the economic performance of the United States over the past century or more as the starting point for our theory. With such a model, we could quantify more precisely the costs and benefits of import substitution during the period of Mexico's fast growth 1950-1981.
Mexican entrepreneurs were protected not only from foreign products, but also from foreign capital. With such a model, we could also extend the theory of barriers to growth and transitions to higher balanced-growth paths sketched out in Section 5 to incorporate the stages of growth studied by Rostow (1960). INTRODUCTION In 1950 Mexico seemed posed for what Rostow (1960) later termed an economic takeoff: following the worldwide Great Depression of the late 1920s and early 1930s, Mexico had begun to grow steadily. A question of obvious importance is whether Mexico will grow at a higher rate than in the past after the crisis is over, or if it will continue to display stagnation, conditional on a possible new global recession. Workers were flowing into cities, manufacturing was increasing as a fraction of gross domestic product (GDP) as agriculture declined, and education was spreading throughout the country.
In 1934, GDP per working-age person reached its lowest value since the end of the 19th century. The goals of economic policy announced in 1970 were economic growth and an improvement of income distribution.
In this section, we examine economic events that took place during 1877-1950, which set the stage for the takeoff experienced by the Mexican economy starting in 1950.
Measured TFP depends on the stock of knowledge but also depends on the efficiency with which factors of production are allocated across firms and sectors in the economy. Given that a large fraction of tax revenues came from tariffs on foreign trade, tax revenue fell 25 percent.
We argue that to understand the evolution of real GDP, we need to understand the evolution of TFP. Mexico fared badly during the 2007-2009 Great Recession, but economic growth resumed in 2010.
The government incurred deficits that were financed via domestic credit from the Banco de México and borrowing from abroad. In the next section, we propose an extension of the model to analyze the evolution of TFP in Mexico during 1950-2010. It is difficult, for example, to reconcile them with the once-popular endogenous growth theories of researchers like Romer (1986). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System. The average yearly growth rate of the medios de pago (M1) was 25.8 percent between 1970 and 1982.
As we have mentioned, the United Kingdom was the industrial leader during the 19th century, and it is possible that the European Union or even China might assume that role later in the 21st century.
Lucas (2009), for example, develops a model of the development of new ideas that he parameterizes to yield a growth rate of 2 percent per year.


This model might be useful in thinking about how this long-run growth rate might change.
Industrial workers and farmers were incorporated to the political system, through the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), which governed Mexico until the end of the 20th century.
There are small business cycle fluctuations around the constant growth path, and there is the major deviation during the Great Depression of 1929-1939 and the subsequent World War II buildup.
Four important events took place in the interwar period: the nationalization of the oil industry, the development of the financial system, expenditure on public investment, and the agrarian reform.
While all of this is interesting, it is mostly relevant for countries at the technological frontier, countries like the United States, Canada, and Japan and countries in Western Europe where what Lewis (2004) calls "best practice" is developed.
The United States has been the industrial leader, the richest major country in the world, since the early 20th century, when it took over this role from the United Kingdom. There was an increase in regulation and bureaucracy that discouraged the formation of new firms. It is largely irrelevant to our question involving growth in Mexico, a country that is behind the industrial leader and simply needs to adapt best practice from elsewhere.
The use of the INEGI data set accounts for the minor differences in growth rates reported here and those in Kehoe and Ruhl (2010, 2011).
We argue that the United States was able to achieve its steady growth by adopting new technologies. The creation of firms managed by the government, and the purchase of firms by the government, increased the fiscal deficit. Kehoe and Ruhl (2010) hypothesize that the stock of knowledge, which has increased very smoothly over the past century or more, can be adopted, perhaps at some cost by countries that are behind the industrial leader. According to Solís (2000), in broader terms, the management of the oil industry was now aimed at contributing to the development of the economy. This would give rise to trend growth of close to 2 percent per year, at least after capital and labor have had time to adjust. The economy was also hit by external shocks, such as the fall in the price of oil in international markets, and the rise in international interest rates, before the 1982 debt crisis. The absolute level that a specific country is at compared to the industrial leader depends on its institutions and economic policies. Eventually, however, if institutions and policies stabilize, and after capital and labor have adjusted, the country returns to trend growth. During the Revolución there was an increase in currency in circulation and in inflation. It is important to note that one of the main characteristics of the Banco de México was that it was granted the monopoly over currency emission. The term "Public Sector" includes both the Federal Government and Institutions and Firms under Direct Budgetary Control (IFDBC).
The government implemented a program of public investment aimed at the expansion of the oil industry.
Policy mistakes made during the end of the import substitution period 1970-1981 led to the crises that followed. Inflation during the Revolución led to the use of the dollar in the northern part of the country, and in Veracruz and Tampico. There was also an expansion of public infrastructure and of provision of public health and education services.
After 1995, we interpret Mexico as being in the balanced-growth path that its policies and institutions warrant. The statistics related to the Public Sector exclude nonfinancial institutions and firms classified as under Indirect Budgetary Control (IFIBC). Coins with gold or silver content that had been hoarded started being used in transactions. Between 1978 and 1982, public investment and private investment grew in real terms at a yearly rate of 15.0 percent. These statistics also exclude financial institutions controlled by the government, categorized as financial IFIBC, which are principally the development banks. After the creation of the Banco de México there was an increase in checking accounts between 1925 and 1930.
For the first time in history, the demand for elementary school education was fully satisfied. The Great Depression brought a fall in the price level and in the money supply defined as medios de pago (M1). The fraction of the population with access to medical services reached 85 percent, having been 60 percent in 1976. A number of researchers have addressed this question and conclude that Mexico's slow growth, despite its reforms over 1985-1995, is a consequence of its inefficient financial system and lack of contract enforcement. This is an indication of where to look for barriers to growth in Chile to account for its slow growth since 1998.
They conclude that the crucial differences between policies in Mexico and Chile are those related to the banking system and to bankruptcy proceedings.
The public sector deficit relative to GDP had reached a level of 10 percent in 1976, although it fell to 7 percent in 1980. The data in Figure 4 show the very low levels of credit that the Mexican financial sector provides the private sector. In 1950-1981 the economy was able to grow in spite of the inefficient financial sector because the government did much of the investment. One indicator of the problems in contract enforcement in Mexico, besides anecdotal evidence, is precisely this low level of credit. Another indicator is the data from the World Bank's Doing Business on the costs of recovering damages from a broken contract presented in Table 2. Our theory suggests that it may be more fruitful to compare Mexico to economies at a similar level of economic development.
Finally, in 1982, the Mexican government announced that it could not face the scheduled debt payments, thus starting the 1982 debt crisis.
Kambourov (2009), for example, presents evidence for this rigidity and argues that it prevented Mexico from benefiting as much from opening to trade as Chile did. It is a country that has about 80 percent of the real GDP per working-age person of Mexico in 2010 but that has experienced higher rates of growth than Mexico since 2000. The Obregón and Calles administrations had started distributing land through institutional channels. We have already discussed the monopolies in electricity, telecommunications, transportation, and petroleum extraction. Despite high growth in 2009 and 2010, it has yet to be seen whether Brazil is performing significantly b etter than Mexico. In recent years, violence associated with drug trafficking has also been a barrier to growth. The objectives of the program included reducing the growth of public expenditure, carrying out public infrastructure projects, and honoring the payments of external debt.
The data in Figure 4 show that the recovery in Mexico was not as vigorous as that in the United States, however. According to Aspe (1993), a major source of resources was the encaje legal, which represented credit to the public sector at zero cost or at low interest rates. ECONOMIC HISTORY SINCE 1950 In terms of Rostow's (1960) stages of economic growth, we can think of Mexico as starting a takeoff during the Porfiriato, only to have it aborted by the events connected with the Revolución and the Great Depression. In 1986 Mexico signaled its intention to open its markets to foreign competition by joining the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The recovery following the Great Depression set the stage for the takeoff that occurred in the three decades after 1950. We view the takeoff as the product of urbanization and industrialization and the increase in education levels, as well as the adoption of advanced technologies from abroad, principally the United States.
The measures taken by the government included a reduction in the public sector deficit, trade openness, and consensus building (concertación). The government held meetings with labor union leaders (sector obrero), peasant leaders (sector campesino), and businessmen.
The government invested in public infrastructure: the oil industry, highways, health, and education. Workers reduced their demands for increases in wages, peasants agreed not to increase guaranteed prices (precios de garantía) in real terms, and businessmen agreed to reduce increases in prices and increase productivity. In terms of the loanable funds for investment emphasized by Rostow (1960), it is worth stressing that the private domestic financial system was a limited source for such funds.
In turn, the public sector agreed to reduce its expenditure and the number of firms owned by the government. The principal goal was to achieve an inflation rate of one digit by reaching a consensus with workers and businessmen.
The public sector balance was actually a surplus in 1991 and remained a surplus until the end of the Salinas government. Its assets, measured at current prices, were multiplied by three, in a period of low inflation. The process of regaining access to international financial markets, after the 1982 debt crisis, was also undertaken. An important firm privatized in this period was TELMEX, the monopoly providing telephone services.
In January 1994 NAFTA, the trade and foreign investment agreement with the United States and Canada, came into effect.
This agreement was the culmination of a major liberalization of foreign trade and investment by the Mexican government. In 1988 the encaje legal, previously mentioned, was substituted for an obligation for banks to keep an equivalent of 30 percent of certain liabilities allocated to government bonds.
This article also stated that no authority could force the Banco de México to provide financing. In 1994 the Banco de México Law was enacted, specifying the rules under which it would be related to the government.
Domestic interest rates fell 20 percentage points in August of that year, although they later rose, to levels below those before the negotiation. During 1994, several political and economic negative events took place, in the months before the devaluation of the peso in December. The peso-dollar exchange rate had been allowed to fluctuate within a predetermined band. By July 1994, the stock of Tesobonos was larger than the international reserves of the Banco de México. During the end of December, Mexico abandoned its exchange-rate regime and let the peso float.
At the end of December 1994, the stock of Tesobonos was much bigger than international reserves, and maturity had fallen to 205.7 days. During 1988-1994 there was a large increase in the ratio of bank credit to GDP, as seen in Figure 5. Initially, this rescue was carried out through the Fondo Bancario de Protección al Ahorro (FOBAPROA), a deposit insurance public institution created in the previous administration. Growth accounting indicates that most of this fall in GDP per working-age person was due to a large fall in total factor productivity (TFP). That TFP fell by a large amount is robust to measuring it assuming variable capital utilization. This is a reminder that theories that want to explain the economic performance of Mexico have to be able to account for large falls in TFP, as well as an overall lack of growth in TFP outside crisis periods. The administration of Ernesto Zedillo, in office between 1994 and 2000, responded to the crisis with measures of fiscal austerity.
To our knowledge, there is no study that analyzes the impact of these reforms on the amount of credit in the economy, but Figure 5 indicates that they cannot have been large.
The change was to avoid the bankruptcy courts by permitting banks and borrowers to write contracts that put collateralized assets outside of the borrower's bankruptcy estate. Liens on property were substituted by trusts in which the bank is at the same time the trustee and the beneficiary of the trust.
A third change aimed at fostering credit had to do with digitalizing property registers, in a pilot program in some northern states.
This reform was aimed at providing more information to creditors, given that in Mexico it is commonly uncertain whether a person who owns land actually has title to it.
Finally, the Fox government allowed the entry of more participants into the banking industry, granting a bank charter to six retailers. Once again, the data in Figure 5 indicate that these reforms did little to expand private credit. Yearly inflation, measured with the consumer price index (CPI), fell to a one-digit level in 2000. The fall in economic activity was much larger in Mexico than in other Latin American countries. One reason for the bigger contraction is that the Mexican manufacturing sector is highly synchronized with the economy of the United States. Other Latin American countries had smaller contractions, and one of them even shows positive growth.
For Mexico this fall in GDP was slightly smaller than the one registered between 1994 and 1995, which was 8.4 percent. Other Latin American countries had smaller falls below trend, and some of them were above trend. For Mexico this fall below was slightly smaller than the one registered in 1995, which was 6.0 percent.



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