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In Brazil (2013), 29% of all energy consumed and 69% of electricity consumed came from hydroelectric power. Network with others, build your profile, and receive the latest oil and gas news in your inbox.
OilVoice, established in 2002, is your leading source of upstream news, jobs and industry information. If the price of oil is any indicator, it is clear that we are at the begining of an energy crisis. All of our modern development has been fueled by cheap fossil energy from oil, gas and coal (and to a lesser extend from uranium through nuclear power). For long, it had been thought that reserves were so great, there was little reason to start thinking about alternatives. Industrialized countries, such as European ones, have started to stabilize their demand on fossil energy because of their slow growth, by rationalizing their use of energy and by increasing their use of renewable energy. This especially unfair because in developing countries, the use of oil is completely different. In Asia, still lagging far behind North America and Europe in term of individual transportation, their use of oil is much less than coal, which provides half of their energy (mainly for the industry and the production of electricity). Extraction of oil is not quite like pumping out water from a tank at a constant flow until there is no more. The year after the country name indicates the year at which this country reached its own oil production peak. This is a very well understood process as it has been experienced already by many countries which passed their own national oil peak. As more and more countries are reaching their own national peak, the obvious question is when the world oil production is going to peak, what is called peak oil. Oil discoveries have peaked in the sixties which means that the bulk of oil extracted today is coming from aging fields discovered decades ago. According to the Energy Watch Group study, peak oil occurred in 2006 and a steady decline in production is to follow. At the individual level, we should get prepared by freeing ourselves as much as possible from fossil energy. Using more natural gas is possible but it can only cover a small portion of what we use the oil for. At the end, we will likely end up using more natural gas, more coal, more nuclear power, more biofuels but it wont be enough.
The 2 most effective measures we could take are energy conservation and massive shift toward the use of renewable energy.
The scale of the problem is such that we would need dramatic actions from smart politicians to completely change our energy spending and supply policy.
What we didn't mentioned so far is that peak oil is only one symptom of a graver disease: unsustainable development that led to global warming, mass extinction, population overshoot, water crisis, desertification, deforestation and pollution. So as we are looking to address peak oil, it seems that the right answer is probably to pave the way for responsible and sustainable development.
There is a lot of information on the web, many books and documentaries talking about the upcoming oil crisis. There is a very good interview of David Fridley on Global Public Media: “Scientist David Fridley on energy, China and globalization”. According to a 2008 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study the most reliable state electrical power supply in the US is interrupted only 92 minutes a year, the worst is 214 minutes - these figures don't include power outages blamed on natural disasters. Outages due to aging wires, pole transformers and other 1960s and 1970s infrastructure pose the greatest threat. The United States has the world’s most advanced economy, is the world's largest electricity consumer and rarely has sustained electricity shortages covering large areas. Unfortunately that might soon not be the case - the United States is suffering through an extended heat wave and when combined with the worst drought since 1956 energy production across most of the nation is threatened. Power plants are completely dependent on water for cooling, they are overheating and utilities are shutting them down or running their plants at lower capacity.
The lack of rain, and the incessant heat, has also increased the need for irrigation water for farming, meaning increasing competition between the agricultural and power generation sectors for the same water.
The average nuclear plant requires 2725 liters of water per megawatt hour for cooling, coal 1890 liters of water and natural gas plants 719 liters per megawatt hour. At the end of 2010 the total installed electricity generation capacity in the United States was 1,137.3 Gigawatts. We’ve used so much on the water in some of our river systems that nothing reaches the river's destination - no water reaches the mouth of the Colorado River, the Ococee River in the Southeastern United States has a large stretch of the river dry on certain days, Nebraska's Platte River is drying up and so is the not so mighty anymore Mississippi to name just a few of the many. Rivers are the main source for inland electrical power plant cooling and many river levels are dangerously low, but what about water levels behind dams?
Are more frequent droughts, long heat waves and an increasing population going to continue to strain power generation in the future?
This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified; Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness.
Furthermore, I, Richard Mills, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.
Mientras que America Central y el Caribe basan su produccion de electricidad en el carbono fundamentalmente, aun mas que en America del Norte y Europa, Sudamerica  tiene la menor de las producciones de electricidad basada en el carbono. Reducing the carbon footprint from your home’s power use is a theme we will post a lot on in the future. Using data from the World Energy Council we can compare how much electricity the average electrified household uses in different countries. There are numerous things that drive these differences, including wealth, physical house size, appliance standards, electricity prices and access to alternative cooking, heating and cooling fuels. By taking residential electricity use and dividing it by population we can look at how much electricity the average person uses at home in each country. Our household electricity use has been 2,000 kWh each of the last few years, which means it is about 700 kWh per person. The heated surface area of the house is 185 m2 and includes a couple of rooms in the cellar. We hope to reduce electric use by 50% in the coming years with a new heat pump (COP for heat of 3.8), solar thermal hot water and radiators, heat pump clothes dryer, more LED lights, and maybe a wood burning insert for non used fireplace.
We heat our home with natural gas…but people forget about the power consumption of the fan to distribute the heat throughout the house.
I don’t believe in global warming, If it was true then South India is on the brink of maximum heat, We would have fled to the mountains when the volcano in iceland puked next 100 years of man made green house gasses. When developed countries have everything that they need their politicians talk about non existing problems and act as if they are resolving it. Though we Indians are amongst the minimum users of electricity, Government still insists on saving electricity. In the UK we might not use as much electricity as say America, but we do seem to use alot of gas for heating during the winter months.
So I don’t think Brits can really pat them self on the back, its just fortunate our climate is more mild.


Carbon foot print as it pertains to global warming is a tax scam to squeeze every bit of life out of its people. We are 2 living in a 2400 sq ft bungalo (includes exposed basement in sq footage) in northern Ontario, Canada. My home is less than 100 square meters and I ALWAYS turn off what I don’t use at the moment. Biofuel and other renewables contributed a further 10% to renewable energy consumption bringing the renewables total to 39% making Brazil one of the world leaders in renewable energy. But this one, unlike any other we had in the past, is profound, structural and will last for as long as our dependance on fossil energy lasts. There was strong faith in the progress of technology and future discoveries to suppose that solutions would be found in time when the problem of fossil fuel supply would occur.
Excluded are fuels such as wood, peat and animal waste (important in many countries but unreliably documented).
But developing countries, particularly China and India, are growing at such great speed that their demand on fossil energy is exploding. If industrialized countries have mostly stabilized their demography, population in Asia is still on the rise. In all regions of the world, oil is the most important or the second most important source of energy. Excluded are fuels such as wood, peat and animal waste (important in many countries) but unreliably documented. The red dotted line denotes the projection from the World Energy Outlook (WEO) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) which is completely off the reality.
What is important to understand is that we are witnessing the end of the era of cheap and abundant energy.
For instance, in the residential sector we are concerned about in Belgrade, it is just plain irresponsible to continue building energy inefficient dwellings using electricity or natural gas for heating.
All industrialized countries are bound to reduce their CO2 emissions and coal is just not an option. For instance by increasing the efficiency of transportation, by rethinking urban development to reduce the use of cars or by increasing the energy efficiency in the residential sector. Oil is used for the production and the transportation of food, natural gas for the production of fertilizers, biofuel makes fuel production compete with food, transportation is essential for most of our economy to function. They might be hard to find in Serbia, but they can all be obtained using an Internet connection. Since 1990 US power demand has risen 25 percent, yet spending on related infrastructure has climbed only seven percent.
An assessment projected total 2011 summer electricity demand would be roughly 64,964 megawatts (MW). North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) estimates that over the next decade 135 gigawatts of new capacity will be needed to meet the growth in consumption. Light green dots are flows classified in the 25th to 75th percentile, dark red are 10th to 24th percentile and bright red dots are classified as low. The plummeting water levels have reduced the Hoover Dam’s power generation by 23 percent.
Researchers at the University of California in San Diego predict that the lake has a 50 percent chance of decreasing to a point too low for power generation by 2017.
Climate change, dropping surface water levels, an aging power transmission grid and power shortages should be on everyone’s radar screen. Expressions of opinion are those of Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Emisiones de CO2 en el mundo y en America Latina y el Caribe2.Emisiones de CO2 por persona en America Latina y el Caribe comparado con el promedio de emisiones en el mundo y en la OCED3. Entre 1990 y 1999, en el Caribe y America Central, las emisiones a partir de la produccion de electricidad y el calor se incrementaron en mas del 50%.
But I guess we used ~1000KWh more than normal due to moving in January, having the doors open for workmen on frequent occasions and a few small teething problems with the heat pumps – both for warm air heating and for the warm water boiler.
But there may be little room to do this, short of either installing a wood burning stove (which never pays itself back, even with heat recovery from the heating system) or installing solar thermal water heating (which again, will never pay itself back). That also means we only have about 8 hours of daylight in the winter (it doesn’t balance out in the summer by having longer evenings).
We use Air conditioner only for Bed room 2 to 3 hours at night on Summer months followed by a fan. If children can be trained to live without Air-conditioners and Washing machines (I never saw them till I got a job at age 24), they will be healthier and pay less for energy throughout their life.
It’s just me, so I did an experiment to see how much money I could save on electricity. Since 1965, energy consumption has always run slightly ahead of energy production making Brazil a net importer of energy – oil, gas and coal.
There is a limited amount of it in the ground and as we take it out, that amount is diminishing.
Yet, it's hard to blame them as they are still using only a fraction of what the industrialized countries are using per person. In Asia, the combination of population growth, massive industrialization, rise of weathly classes is pushing the very strong and increasing demand on energy.
Globally, oil is first and constitutes 36% of all the primary energy used in the world (see graph below). Over the past 30 years, only Europe and Eurasia reduced the amount of oil they use by switching to natural gas whenever possible after the oil crisis of the seventies. The question is therefore: can we extract enough of those fossil fuels to cover that demand? That is the initial period where extraction quantities increases as wells are sunk one after another. What's more is that, after a few years plateau, they forecast a steep decline in production. And if it is irresponsible to build such dwellings, it certainly doesn't make any sense for individuals to buy them. Biofuels are not the answer neither as it is very well exposed by David Fridley in “The Myths of Biofuels” (downloadable freely). The above graph gives a measure of how much energy we get from fossil fuels and just how little we get from renewable ones. At Kuce Beodom level, we will do what we can, which is to continue working on energy efficiency and to move strongly toward the use of renewable energy. This decrease in power generation at the Hoover Dam could cause electricity prices to increase five-fold for those in the Southwestern United States.
Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission.
IE: In Canada our power has to travel further and there is some loss as it travels, so more power needs to be produced to counteract this problem.
We do not use Airconditioners or heaters as weather is moderate in our region and use natural gas geysers and gas stoves.
With smart meters I can see hourly consumption and note that the basal level of energy useage at my house is 500 watts continuously.


I live in Republic of Panama and last month they claim I used 971kWh I find it hard to believe. There is a large refrigerator in my apartment, but I don’t buy enough food at one time to fill it. The aspiration to become an oil exporting nation suffered a set back in 2012 and 2013 with oil production falling and consumption rising. Over the past decades, the use of the exploited reserves has been offset by the discovery of new ones and the production was able to ramp up tremendously. In fact, growth has become the only path forward for the world economy, and that growth is tightly dependent on the availability of affordable abundant energy. As more and more fields reach their production peak, the production of the country, which result in the aggregated production of the individual fields, will also eventually peak and decline (see above). A blackout was avoided but operators used nearly all of their reserve generating capacity. Other countries might have poor infrastructure, or use poor conductors for their powerlines. On summers months March to October (its hot most of the time) temperature can range from 28 to 42 (max).
There are new fridges which use a motor fan to remove frost, they consume 1 Kwh per day more. These Provincial governments have historically encouraged home heating and cooling with electricity. It is winter, so I put the perishables on a ledge outside my window and didn’t run the frig for an entire month. Finally, once most of the recoverable oil has been taken out, it becomes impossible to maintain the same production rate. He based his model on oil discoveries, predicting rightly that oil production follows oil discoveries in the same bell shape curve.
As early as 2014 Texas is expected to have a 2,500 megawatt shortfall in generating capacity – that shortfall is equivalent to the output of five new, large power plants.
Emisiones de CO2 por concepto de transporte en 2000: algunos paises de America Latina y el Caribe6. Brazil’s energy consumption has proceeded in lock step with indigenous energyproduction which together have provided the engine for economic and population growth. We have gas burners here and gas heating, so I ended up just paying for the electricity used by my computer, lights, and cell phone. Depending on the type of reservoir, recovery of oil varies from 10% to a little more than 50%. Should Brazil fail to grow energy production in future the economy may either stagnate or the country will have to import more energy placing trade balance and currency at risk.[The post is written in a style where the Figure captions are an integral part of the text. Lifetime of an oil field can go from 5 to 10 years to more than 50 years for the biggest fields in the Middle-East. It is one of the few countries in the world where liquid biofuel production is significant and stood at 317,000 bpd in 2013.
In 2006, the discovery of vast oil resources in the sub-salt strata of the Santos Basin generated huge excitement. But ultra deep water and sub-salt setting has created enormous technical challenges that translate to high costs and the new play has yet to deliver to expectations.Gas production in Brazil is low compared with oil, which is unusual since the two normally go hand in hand. Brazil has very little indigenous coal production.Brazil has two nuclear reactors at a site called Angra with a third under construction. At present, nuclear provides an insignificant 1% of primary energy.Hydroelectric power is massive in Brazil and capacity has grown steadily since 1965.
However, in 2012 and 2013, hydro production was also down owing to late and light rains that caused a national emergency. No doubt some may wish to attribute this to climate change but there seems little reason to not attribute this to natural cyclical variability in climatic patterns. Image from Rasheeds World.Figure 3 The energy consumption profile in Brazil looks similar to the production profile (Figure 1). But sharp eyes will spot that the consumption is running slightly ahead of production resulting in energy imports as shown in Figure 4.As we will see in this post and have seen in a number of earlier posts (link list at the end of this article), economic growth is dependent upon energy consumption, especially in developing nations. In maintaining a dynamic equilibrium between indigenous energy production and consumption, Brazil has allowed indigenous energy production to control the pace of economic development. This is a prudent course to follow but is radically less ambitious than the courses followed by Japan, S Korea and Germany that have forced economic expansion with imported energy paid for by exporting manufactured goods.Figure 4 Brazil imports oil, gas and coal. For the time being, ambitions to become an oil exporter have been dashed by declining production and rising consumption.
Petrobras are a world class semi-national oil company, but they may have met a major challenge to produce the ultra deep water, sub-salt fields though sub-salt production passed 500,000 bpd in June this year. Transportation is dominated by oil significantly supplemented by biofuel (sugar cane ethanol).
Unlike North European and North American countries, Brazil probably has little need for space heating where natural gas plays a major role in cold climates.
The other renewable category is the residual left after deducting solar and wind from the renewable generation reported by BP.
If Brazil’s economic growth is to continue based on indigenous energy production then they are either going to have to expand hydroelectric power, discover more gas or build more nuclear power stations. Or perhaps do all three.Figure 7 79% of electricity generation in Brazil comes from renewable sources. Population growth is one factor underpinning GDP growth.Figure 9 Brazil has enjoyed strong growth in bilateral trade that has over time fluctuated between surplus and deficit. Since economic growth is based upon growth in indigenous energy supplies, should the country fail to continue to grow its energy base then the only alternative will be to import increasing amounts of energy to the detriment of trade balance and currency. Brazil either needs to work vigorously to expand energy production or devise a means of converting more energy consumption to exports. I dare say that hosting the World Cup may in the short term distort the trade figures.Figure 11 Developing countries need energy to produce GDP and growth in energy to provide GDP growth. Note how per capita energy consumption has grown more rapidly than per capita GDP (Figure 12).Figure 12 Cross plotting the data from Figure 11 shows the clear connection between GDP and energy consumption. Somewhat worryingly for Brazil, cheap energy in 1970 produced over $6000 per capita in GDP per toe consumed while in 2012 with expensive energy the figure had fallen to below $4000. I suspect the underlying cause is larger numbers of people having access to energy for comfort, security and leisure purposes that does not gear into producing wealth.
GNI PPP data shown in Figure 13 provide a somewhat modified picture.Figure 13 Summary plot of the 14 countries I have looked at in this series so far plotting similar data as in Figure 12 but this time using GNI PPP data from the World Bank in international $, money of the day. The data for Brazil lies on a very similar trend to Egypt, Algeria and Turkey which are all developing nations that should be viewed as succeeding. A major problem faced by Brazil, and all of these countries, is the unequal participation of the population in creating and enjoying the fruits of economic activity. Note the total failure of Nigeria.On a per capita basis, Brazil is not yet wealthy and, like China, economic strength comes from the large population.



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