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According to ITF, the changes would dismantle a comprehensive reform package delivered by the previous government three years ago that created a level playing field in domestic shipping. The 2012 package included support for Australian shipping companies, including tax breaks and training subsidies, as well as a requirement that foreign-flagged vessels pay Australian level wages when working domestic trade sectors, says ITF.
Posted on May 21, 2015 with tags Australia, Cabotage, Coastal Trading Act, International Transport Workers' Federation, ITF. The conference aims to bring together key decision makers in the industry to discuss modern methods of port security and provide effective learning experiences for all delegates through the carefully selected expert speaker line up.
Interacting with delegates from across the globe and hearing from industry leading experts will ensure delegates are up-to-date with high priority information that enables you to best secure your seaports, civilians and means of trade. Topics to be discussed include terrorism, cyber terrorism, emergency intervention procedures, optimising technology use in security checks and case studies featuring some of the largest ports across the world. The statement has been issued to clarify claims on potential impact of the proceedings as the company leases ships to Japanese and European clients, such as NYK, MOL, K-LINE and others, including Toyko-listed Daiichi Chuo Kisen Kaish. Daiichi Chuo recorded losses for four consecutive years amid sluggish market driven by economic downturn in Europe and China along with high fees for charter rates that are expected to push the company’s earnings further into red this year as well. Japanese dry bulk shipping company Daiichi Chuo Kisen Kaisha and its wholly-owned subsidiary Star Bulk Carrier Co. In his work report to the NPC on March 5 2016, Premier Li Keqiang was expansive in his description of China’s civil sector maritime ambitions.
The strong articulation by Li of previously-known plans for civil sector maritime expansion follows China’s confirmation in November 2015 that it had agreed with Djibouti to build a military logistics base in the Indian Ocean. Statements from China about “peace” need not be taken at face value, especially since there is a campaign in some quarters of the country for it to build overseas naval bases for hard power projection as opposed to logistic support bases.
It should be no surprise and no threat that China, the biggest national economy in the world on the latest IMF PPP estimates for 2014 revised February 17 2016, would want logistic support bases in the Indian Ocean (to help look after the biggest national merchant fleet in the world, ten navy ships a year protecting its merchant ships and a planned peacekeeping force of 8,000). We could also take account of a likely slowdown in the rate of increase of China’s defense spending as its annual economic growth rate becomes smaller.
Meanwhile some arms of the United States government continue to contradict the DNI and ONI with the idea of a putative threat from China to commercial shipping in the South China Sea. Both of these statements are loosely-worded but clearly imply an imputed Chinese threat to commercial shipping (“sea lanes”). In January 2016, Reuters reported that commercial shipping companies and their insurers did not see any higher risk to their operations as a result of rising tension between China and its neighbors over the island disputes in the South China Sea. This document is a broad overview of the forces, events, and activities that may shape the maritime security environment of the next two decades. The study has been co-produced by the Coast Guard Intelligence Coordination Center and the Office of Naval Intelligence.
Please address any questions or comments regarding this study to the Coast Guard Intelligence Coordination Center.
The oceans are vital to the overall growth of the world economy and population, and to the continued economic integration of nations. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) conservatively estimates that world demand for fish for human consumption will increase from 80 million tons in 1995 to 110-120 million tons in 2010.3 Fish are an important source of protein for much of the world's population. This rise in world demand for fish will place increasing stress on fish stocks, many of which are already overexploited.
Despite current depletion of fisheries stocks, it is possible that stocks as a whole may recover and remain at sustainable levels by 2010 should effective fisheries management practices be enacted and enforced. International cooperation will be critical to the success of fisheries management endeavors. Despite efforts at cooperation, however, international fishing disputes will be inevitable. Fishing is such an important part of many coastal country economies that it often reaches into the social fabric of society.
For the United States, fisheries management and enforcement will be a major concern through 2020, both internationally and domestically. Given the high priority placed by the United States on protection of the marine environment, more marine preserves will likely be established through 2020. The rapidly growing and interdependent international community of 2020 increasingly will probe and exploit the oceans for minerals and energy to fuel its expanding economy. Diamond mining off the South African coast offers a clue to the future of marine mineral mining. In addition to sand and gravel, the oceans surrounding the United States contain a wide variety of mineral resources. Recovering methane gas from beneath the ocean floor presents several safety and environmental challenges. The greatest development in the oil and natural gas industries during the next 20 years will be the growth of deepwater activities in the Gulf of Mexico. A moratorium on oil and gas development on the outer continental shelf will remain in effect at least through 2012, thereby limiting activity mainly to Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) is one energy conversion process with several applications. According to the Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, the OTEC potential is enormous. OTEC is the process of converting solar radiation to electric power using the ocean's natural thermal gradient to drive a power-producing cycle. The other two types of energy conversion, tidal and wave power, involve the mechanical motion of the ocean. The growth in marine natural resource exploitation, particularly in the deepwater environment, will bring about new marine safety and security challenges in the years ahead.
The growth in deepwater oil and gas infrastructure and operations will have major implications for maritime safety and security. In general, the safety and security concerns brought on by deepwater oil and gas exploitation can be applied to other marine industries as well. New technologies and larger, more complex facilities associated with deepwater activities could also create conflict ashore. The international competition for Antarctica, for all practical purposes, ended in 1959 with the Antarctic Treaty.
The 1980s and 1990s have witnessed a commitment to the Treaty system with the adoption of several improvements. As one of the most pristine and underdeveloped regions of the world, Antarctica's natural resources may draw attention as resources are fully exploited in other areas.
Whether transporting dry cargo, petroleum products, or people, ships will continue to provide a cost-effective mode of transportation well into the next century. Significant trade growth is expected between the United States and Asia over the next 20 years. The container shipping industry will undergo enormous growth through 2020, highlighted by larger ships carrying more cargo. With the move toward huge container ships calling on a few major load centers, another possible development in the container industry will be the "Fast Ship" working between the load centers and feeder ports. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into the United States will continue through 2020, but not at significant levels. The need to move and secure shipments of spent nuclear fuel and waste from reprocessing will increase.
The ports that are able to expand and meet market demand will progress into load centers for the United States. Load centers will play an important maritime role as both mega-ships carrying large volumes of cargo and feeder ships conducting coastal trade travel the harbor waterways. Tremendous growth in the cruise line industry and the emergence of high-speed ferries will be the key developments in the maritime passenger transport business through 2020. The cruise line industry will respond to this increasing demand with new ships and new markets.
Another maritime transportation industry expected to grow significantly by 2020 is the high-speed ferry business. SeaConn is one emerging high-speed ferry company and is illustrative of the future high-speed ferry industry. Ferries, such as those employed in the SeaConn system, will pose significant safety challenges as they encounter other maritime traffic.
The undersea cable industry is expected to grow considerably through 2020 as the fiber-optic cables industry strives to compete against satellite communications.
A drawback of increasing maritime trade, and economic globalization in general, is that it will facilitate the expansion of transnational crime. Control of the processing and sale of illicit drugs worldwide is a continuous challenge that has no short-term solutions.95 The United States has wrestled with drug control since the 1930s when the Federal Bureau of Narcotics was first established. In the United States, teen perceptions concerning drug use are mixed, but it is clear there is a teen drug problem. While these facts do not lend themselves to any specific conclusions concerning the scope of the U.S. By 2020, there will be an illegal drug market comprised of adults who habitually used drugs as teens in the late nineties. While the popularity of certain drugs waxes and wanes, the United States, in general, has a large appetite for illegal substances. While technology may significantly improve raw production capabilities, organized crime will provide many producers the business acumen, political leverage, and funds with which to effectively expand their enterprise. For smugglers moving smaller loads, traditional speedboats or "go-fasts"115 will likely continue to improve beyond today's impressive standards. Notwithstanding future technological improvements in drug detection, the resolve of anti-drug forces and the varying levels of political will to combat drug trafficking, future smugglers likely will be able to engage in their trade using methods and equipment common today.
Absent a dynamic change in international cooperation and domestic resolve to substantially reduce illegal drug availability, the impediments to tomorrow's counterdrug forces will continue to be political, jurisdictional, and sovereignty issues which blunt effective drug control. Effective regional drug control plans hinge on international cooperation, and future plans will require extensive collaboration among regional partners. This level of resolve, while difficult to achieve, will be necessary if the world's nations are to deny illegal drug producers' and traffickers' exploitable niches. The removal of any piece of this critical infrastructure would cause a significant disruption in the production or transportation of illegal drugs. The simple removal of a drug production business node seems like an easy solution, but disruption even in one country is a difficult task. A large part of the illicit arms market will consist of small arms and light weapons ranging from handguns to shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, "there are more than thirty wars raging in countries around the world today. The demonstrated need for and effectiveness of small arms and light weapons will fuel a continued black market through and beyond 2020. The low cost of small arms and light weapons in comparison to heavy weaponry increasingly will attract new buyers. In South America, for example, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Spanish language abbreviation FARC) and the National Liberation Army (Spanish language abbreviation ELN) have been engaged in a bloody conflict with the Colombian government for decades. In addition to its importance to insurgents, the illicit small arms market is closely linked with drug dealers and other criminal groups and is growing as these elements work together to move illicit substances throughout the world. In 1998, Russian organized crime groups reportedly exchanged weapons from their vast arsenal for Colombian drugs. Small arms smuggled out of the United States will be among those available on the black market, and stopping that smuggling will a present a significant challenge to U.S. In addition to those newly manufactured in the United States and smuggled overseas, small arms and light weapons already in circulation will continue to sustain the black market.
Smugglers will continue to transport illicit small arms and light weapons by sea through and beyond 2020. Maritime arms smuggling will remain attractive because it allows smugglers to move large amounts of weaponry among legitimate cargo and within the legitimate transportation infrastructure.
Smugglers also will use the United States as a transshipment point for moving weapons hidden among legitimate cargo, as they have done in the past. Smugglers will attempt to transport weapons manufactured in the United States to Central and South America.
In summary, the demand for small arms and light weapons will not diminish through at least 2020, and will continue to drive the black market and associated smuggling activities that transport them.
With emigration pressure from less developed countries133 expected to rise over the next 20 years,134 thousands of potential immigrants will be unable to gain legal admission to the United States because of quota-controls, travel costs, or other obstacles.
As discussed previously, smuggling operations will continue to threaten the United States and other developed nations. Such legal appeals can stretch for years, and migrants released on their own recognizance often slip away into the general population before the case becomes fully adjudicated.
Degradation of the marine environment, unquestionably, will remain a substantial concern in 2020. Coastal population growth will play an important role in the degradation of the marine environment well through 2020. Carriers weathered a storm of low rates in the first quarter to deliver some of the best profits in recent times. The London-based consultants said in a report this week that carriers will add at least 100,000 containers, measured in 20-foot containers, of carrying capacity in June and more than that in each month through the end of the year even as shipping prices on major trade routes are declining. Carriers’ success in the first three months was achieved on the back of continued lower unit costs that have offset weakening freight rates. From June onwards there will be a minimum of 100,000 teu per month joining the world containership fleet with July seeing twice that amount. In total there are 35 ships of 10,000 teu or more that will need to find a home in the East-West trades by the year’s end.
Worryingly for carriers, as freight rates continue to fall, bunker costs are creeping upwards. The pressure to fill those new ships and maintain market share will continue to suppress freight rates through the remainder of the year. By focusing on costs, which are largely out of their control, carriers are subject to the whims of the energy market. The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, rose on Monday, supported by higher demand for capesize vessels. Statoil today enters the German offshore wind market, through a 50% acquisition of the Arkona offshore wind farm. The Port of Seattle presented Holland America Line with its sixth consecutive Green Gateway Award. Sun, sand and Caribbean ‘joi de vivre’ – Hapag-Lloyd Cruises’ Europa 2 will visit the island of Cuba in the Greater Antilles for the first time on two cruises in October and November 2016. The Port of Indiana-Burns Harbor opened the 2016 international shipping season today with the arrival of the M.V. This Adelphi unpicks the connections between organised piracy and wider criminal networks and corruption on land, which have a weakening effect on states and a destabilising one on the regions in which it is found, arguing that this is part of a broader disorder at sea. Do piracy and maritime terrorism, individually or together, present a threat to international security, and what relationship if any exists between them?
Piracy may be a marginal problem in itself, but the connections between organised piracy and wider criminal networks and corruption on land make it an element of a phenomenon that can have a weakening effect on states and a destabilising one on the regions in which it is found. As a largely unregulated space, the sea is potentially an environment that is especially vulnerable to terrorist attack, and since the 11 September attacks on New York and Washington, military and civilian analysts have been investigating the possibility of an event of a similar magnitude taking place at sea. Piracy occurs in several parts of the world and, though the phenomenon has a significant international dimension in some cases, it does not currently represent a problem on a global scale.
The number of terrorist attacks at sea has been minuscule as a proportion of terrorist attacks overall.
Viewed in isolation from other kinds of maritime disorder and corruption on land, pirate attacks are currently a localised problem. This map of global hot spots focuses this year on maritime disputes and piracy with charts, graphs and tables. Our diverse range of topics will allow delegates to learn best practices for port security and understand further how other ports are resolving core challenges. However, seven of them are chartered to the subsidiary of DCKK, Daiichi Chuo Kinkai, which is not part of this rehabilitation and maintains normal operation. The announced plan did not involve the seizing of new territory, or military threats to its neighbors, but rather a massive expansion of China’s civil sector maritime presence globally. But we might note that in the preceding seven years (since 2008), China has had on average just under ten ship visits per year visit the Indian Ocean region mostly for anti-piracy missions. On current indications, in ten years time, China will probably be building fewer warships, not more, than it is now. According to my assessment, including my 2014 book, Cyber Policy in China, it is that country’s clear intention to match or surpass U.S.
Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) assessed in 2015 that China assigns to its navy a high priority task of assisting in the protection of international commercial shipping. It is primarily intended as an information tool for use by policy makers, strategic planners, integrated systems analysts, and force structure planners. It draws upon extensive research and the expertise of the academic, scientific, and intelligence communities. The forces and changes described in Chapter II not only will affect the types of activity occurring on the seas, but also will tend to increase the amount of maritime activity. The oceans are a primary source of food, energy, and transportation, all key requirements of human activity in an interconnected world. First is the need to manage the growth in human use of the oceans with the need to protect the marine environment.
Worldwide demand for fish2 will increase through 2020, stressing already fully fished and overexploited stocks, reinforcing the need for sound fisheries management practices, and creating potential conflict among states competing for scarce fisheries resources.
All of the regions around the globe are expected to have an increased demand for fish in the future, especially Asia. Of the top 200 marine fish resources in the world, over 60 percent require urgent management of the fishery because they are overexploited or fully fished. Many states are already taking steps, and the international community as a whole has recognized the need for fisheries management, adopting measures such as the UN Agreement on Conservation and Management of Straddling Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish (Straddling Stocks Agreement). All of these components will have to be used to some extent over the next two decades throughout the world.


Reducing fleet size by at least 30 percent is a first step required in protecting the world's fish stocks. In order to protect fish stocks, the size of the New England fishing fleet was recently reduced.
These measures require the commitment of resources to compensate fishermen for their vessels and other capital removed from the business.
Disagreements among coastal states and coastal state enforcement measures will likely lead to conflict, and even violence, as countries grapple with balancing the need for food with the need to sustain the resource. The priority of the National Marine Sanctuaries will continue to be the long-term protection of U.S. Increasing world demand, improving technology, and decreasing availability of some resources on shore will stimulate greater seafloor exploration and development.
The South African offshore diamond mines operate in depths of 100 meters, and are continuously moving to deeper waters, according to Dr. These minerals are found on the continental shelf, in ocean basins, or dissolved in ocean waters. The expectations are so high that the Minerals Management Service recently published a report entitled Deepwater in the Gulf of Mexico: America's New Frontier. Oil production in Alaska is expected to decline at an average annual rate of 4.3 percent through 2020. Fears of large oil spills along fragile coastal areas, combined with increased imports by large tankers may raise pressure to force oil transfer operations offshore.
Harnessing ocean energy for commercial applications in the next 20 years likely will remain economically unfeasible for large-scale operations, but the potential for small-scale development does exist.
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion is possible where surface and deepwater temperature differences exceed 20 degrees Celsius. All of the systems developed to capture mechanical energy are designed to supply electricity.44 Engineers in many countries have developed devices for generating electricity from tidal and wave power. The year 2020 will likely see more oil and natural gas platforms in deeper waters, more pipelines offshore, increased ocean-based mining and dredging operations, and the possibility of ocean energy conversion facilities. New challenges will emerge over the next 20 years with the development of deepwater platforms. While the future for marine mineral mining, methane hydrate extraction, and ocean energy conversion is less certain, operations in any of these fields pose their own risks to the marine environment and place more lives at risk on the seas. Deepwater resource development will place increased demands on coastal ports and communities for support facilities and services.53 With an increasing number of entities seeking to exploit ocean resources, conflicts among users could arise.
Its associated procedures and measures have successfully governed the Antarctic activities of nations for nearly 39 years.54 The treaty froze existing territorial claims, forbade new ones, banned military operations, and outlawed placement of nuclear weapons and disposal of radioactive wastes in Antarctica. Amendments in 1980 limited the exploitation of living marine resources and, in 1991, imposed a 50-year ban on mining. The anticipated increase in commercial activity in Antarctica will be most notably in tourism and, because of ambiguities in the Treaty amendments and the lack of enforcement presence, harvesting of living marine resources. The vast majority of all commodities moving by sea throughout the world will continue to consist of legal goods in lawful transit. The Regina Maersk was the largest container ship to call at a North American port when it sailed into New York Harbor in July 1998. Container ships are already growing in size, with the newest versions too large to enter most U.S. In the "Fast Ship" scenario, smaller, 1200-TEU container ships traveling at speeds of up to 40 knots rapidly move containers to the feeder ports.66 The movement of these relatively large vessels at such high speeds could create safety concerns in the coastal shipping lanes.
This trade is now predominately between the Far East and reprocessing facilities in Europe.
Load centers will require efficient terminals and inland infrastructure in order to move large volumes of cargo.
Ports will attract more customers if they can service ships quickly and thereby reduce the associated labor costs. The of Long Beach is currently one of the busiest cargo container ports in the United States. Under pressure to develop into load centers, several ports are undertaking significant projects in order to meet future shipping needs. The average annual growth of the industry has been almost eight percent since 1980, and with the world fleet of 230 cruise ships operating at 90 percent capacity,82 there are no signs of this growth slowing. The number of cruise ships will likely double before 2020; the industry already is building or has plans to build 44 ships. In certain world markets, high-speed ferries are already competitive with other forms of transportation, particularly commuter airlines.
The Bay Ferries' Cat can reach speeds in excess of 50 knots making it the fastest car ferry in North America. SeaConn is creating a super high-speed passenger ferry system that connects Long Island, Connecticut, and New York City. Growth in undersea cable investments between 1997 and 1998 increased by 81 percent demonstrating a strong resurgence in the undersea cable market.91 Several companies are involved in building extensive fiber optic networks to support the future cyber world. More cable ships will be required to sustain the growing fiber optic cable industry over the next 20 years.
Trafficking in drugs, arms, and people is already big business, with maritime means a key method of transport. Given that there likely will be a future illicit drug market, there also will be sources of supply and transportation methods to deliver drugs to market; the maritime trafficking of illegal drugs is expected to remain a global threat.
While profit is the central motive in the decision to sell illegal drugs, motives for using drugs can vary greatly. These adults will have greater access to drugs primarily due to an increase in disposable income from full-time jobs. Given that chronic users account for three-quarters of the total cocaine market, the number of chronic users is unlikely to change significantly by 2020. Such changes could develop as a result of improved methods of drug ingestion, revived attempts to legalize controlled drugs, greater concern over personal freedoms, the lax enforcement of current drug laws, or a general global acceptance of drug abuse as an uncontrollable issue. This appetite sometimes manifests itself in attempts to legalize certain drugs, especially drugs not considered "dangerous." Therefore, attempts to legalize marijuana have occurred regularly during the last twenty years, but there has been little effort to legalize other controlled drugs such as cocaine and heroin. Illegal drug producers will be increasingly flexible in circumventing international enforcement efforts.
Tools such as portable computers, handheld satellite phones, and increasingly "miniaturized" equipment make highly mobile production facilities an easily attainable goal. High-profit potential will continue to attract crime syndicates to the drug production business in 2020.110 For producers, the diversification these partners bring could provide ready-made distribution networks, money laundering services, and even venture capital, which could be used to purchase and incorporate new technology. Future traffickers will increasingly rely on commercial transportation systems to move their products.113 The relatively low cost of maritime bulk transshipment and good product security, as well as limited personal risk, will entice a number of future drug transporters away from traditional non-commercial maritime methods. A global trend in trade deregulation is largely responsible for this jump in international cargo movement. Current fast boats used for smuggling can carry a metric ton of drugs at speeds of 35 knots or more and are very difficult to detect.116 Future boats may triple the speed and cargo capacity of current platforms, while virtually "disappearing" from law enforcement sensors through the use of a variety of low-observable technologies.
Despite current law enforcement's growing capability to counter smuggling, traffickers continue to reap enviable profits even with 25-30 percent load losses.
International commitment and governmental resolve will be critical to any plan which might require the softening of sovereignty claims, cooperation with historically hostile states, and the commitment of resources such as defense forces and national police.
These niches extend beyond sovereignty concerns and constitutional interpretations, and are more complex than simply stopping drug boats.
Even if this goal is achieved, the current global demand for illegal drugs is so massive that producers will remain intent on overcoming production obstacles with new methods or by moving production to another exploitable country.
Violence and open conflict resulting from ethnic or religious differences, nationalism, class struggle, criminal activity, or competition for resources will be constant threats, and may destabilize individual countries or entire regions. Such weapons are easier to conceal and therefore easier to smuggle, and forces and groups armed with such weapons can cause damage and casualties disproportionate to their numbers. These wars are being fought primarily with light weapons and small arms.Few combatants involved produce any, let alone the bulk of these munitions. Trafficked weapons will include both newly manufactured ones and older weapons drawn from arms caches maintained by stateless organizations or sold and transferred from the inventories of states.
In Colombia, paramilitary and insurgent forces use small arms and light weapons to conduct political assassinations and intimidation. The lucrative business of smuggling small arms and light weapons, often in close connection with drugs, will remain a significant driving force behind small arms smuggling in the years ahead. Since the Russian crime syndicates can provide sophisticated weapons and new drug markets, alliances between Russian and South and Central American crime groups will remain likely. Both new and old small arms and light weapons will emanate from a variety of sources, including the United States. Despite occasional seizures of illegal weapon shipments, the full extent of maritime arms smuggling is unknown; identifying illicit arms shipments will become increasingly difficult as the volume of commercial seaborne trade triples by 2020. In a complex 1989 case, the Colombian police seized 232 Israeli-made Galil assault rifles after conducting a raid on one of the top leaders of the Medellin drug cartel. In one case "two Lithuanian nationals were arrested after they allegedly tried to sell Russian shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles for $330,000 to US agents posing as [Colombian] drug dealers.
A majority of these weapons first move into Mexico, primarily carried overland by human "mules" or by commercial air.131 However, maritime smuggling represents another alternative for moving weapons from the United States to Central America. While some of the weapons will move across land or by air, many will be transported via maritime means. For a variety of reasons, many of these migrants will attempt to enter the United States illegally, and, with more than 12,000 miles of U.S. Unassisted illegal entries into the United States by maritime means will likely decrease by 2020. Unassisted individual attempts to depart via raft, sailboat, or stolen vessels will decrease over the next 20 years as better detection methods and high failure rates make these methods less desirable than assisted methods. With an expected increase in maritime trade, stowaways will continue to frustrate shipping companies and immigration officers well into 2020. While the total amount of future unassisted migrant movements is expected to decrease, assisted movements will likely increase. Alien smugglers, using common smuggling techniques adapted to their human cargo, are not likely to make significant changes to methods that have worked reliably for decades. Smugglers use small freighters because they remain the cheapest means of moving large numbers of people long distances. Go-fasts and motorboats will continue to be used to move illegal migrants shorter distances.
A Coast Guard boat crew moves in to look for bodies that might be trapped in a capsized boat.
Some migrants use multiple smugglers for differing legs of the total transit to the United States. However, there will be a great disparity in the actual health of the seas from region to region around the world. Human activity degrades the environment through nonpoint-source pollution and the physical alteration of habitats. Drewry calculates that average unit revenues were down by 6% year-on-year, but this was more than covered by an 11% fall in unit costs. The data in the below chart does not include 28,000 teu that as of yet we’re not certain of the delivery month.
After two months of the second quarter the World Container Index is averaging 28% lower than it was for the first quarter, whereas IFO 380 in Rotterdam has increased by 15%. With costs now rising the chances of carriers beating their first quarter performance seems remote. They will need the peak season to exceed expectations to achieve ship load factors that would support rate increases. Furthermore, it is also an aspect of a broader problem of disorder at sea that, exacerbated by the increasing pressure on littoral waters from growing numbers of people and organisations seeking to exploit maritime resources, encourages maritime criminality and gives insurgents and terrorists the freedom to operate.
While not politically motivated in itself, it has invariably been linked to prevailing political conditions and the expression of state power or, more commonly, state weakness. He has written on maritime security issues for journals including Armed Forces Journal, Contemporary Security Policy, Jane’s Intelligence Review and Maritime Studies.
The only vessel with DCKK has less than 6 months remaining charter period,” Wisdom Marine said in a statement. By March 2016, according to its Ministry of Defense, China had completed the deployment of 21 small naval task forces (3 ships) to escort merchant shipping in the Gulf of Aden region, with the latest returning force arriving home in Sanya in the South China Sea on March 9 this year.
There is also a strong body of opinion in China’s armed forces that is opposed to over-extension of the country’s military assets in politically unstable regions bordering the Indian Ocean when it is challenged to measure up to U.S.
Congress in February 2016, a global tour d’horizon of more than 30 different threats to U.S. It has been produced largely in support of the goals, objectives and responsibilities of the Department of Transportation and the United States Coast Guard.
It has been reviewed by the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Central Intelligence Agency.
The primary drivers of this increase in maritime activity will be the continued growth of the economic interdependence among states, the overall world population growth, the tremendous migration of people from developing states to developed states, and a projected significant increase in passenger carriers.
Development of the oceans' natural resources and use of the oceans' highways for transport must increase to accommodate an ever-growing world. Second is the substantial increase in illegal activity that will accompany the tremendous growth in legal maritime activity. Marine fisheries production (the amount of fish caught, measured in tons) may increase to help meet the rising demand, but only through effective fisheries management. Aquaculture, or fish farming, will help meet this rising demand, but marine fisheries will still be the primary source. The significance of the Straddling Stocks Agreement is its recognition that current fishing levels cannot be sustained at current harvesting rates.
Various plans to do this exist, such as retiring vessels, buying back permits, and limiting entry into a fishery as others' permits expire. One option, Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs), establish property rights to what had previously been a public asset. They also require plans (and more resources) to help these displaced fishermen to earn a living in other sectors of the economy. Nearly 40 percent of the world's oceans are claimed as exclusive economic zones, and coastal states control almost 90 percent of the oceans' fish.
Fish stocks in the United States will only be at sustainable levels in 2020 if adequate fisheries management tools are implemented and enforced. Collisions with ships and entanglement with fishing gear will loom as an ever-present hazard for large mammals such as the right whale, whose number has dropped to nearly 300. Furthermore, exploration, drilling, and mining operations will move farther offshore as new technology advances the ability to operate in deeper waters.
Through 2020, the demand for offshore sand and gravel likely will increase as land supplies begin to diminish and storms continue to erode beaches. This is a realistic possibility, since mineral prices fluctuate and often move cyclically, depending on demand.
Right: irregular pieces of gas hydrate recovered from sediments in the Sea of Okhotsk, east of Sakalin Island.
EEZ could provide a significant source of energy, commercial exploitation by 2020 is questionable for two reasons.
Ocean energy does offer a significant source of energy supply, but unless other, currently cheaper sources of energy rapidly diminish, there is little incentive for any significant growth in the industry. Specially designed turbines mounted in dams or on moorings can capture the energy manifested in elevated sea levels or strong currents.45 These systems are ineffective, however, where tidal amplitudes are not high, currents are not strong, or wave conditions are inconsistent. The operations may be technically more sophisticated and produce at much higher rates,49 increasing the scope of potential marine accidents, such as spills. Currently, some communities are opposed to offshore development because of environmental and land-use concerns. The number of cruise ships visiting the Antarctic region will increase profoundly through 2020.56 The sub-Antarctic seas have attracted the fishing industry as nations have closed off their EEZs. Large container ships and high-speed ferries likely will have the most significant impact on maritime transportation in the foreseeable future. Bulk cargo vessels carry large quantities of cargo, such as grain or iron ore, in large, uncompartmented cargo holds.
Future concerns about an environmental catastrophe and security of the nuclear waste will lead to increased demands for storage in or transit through U.S. The container industry, in particular, because of the increasing volume of cargo and the growing size of the ships themselves, will divide ports into two categories: load centers and feeder ports. Load centers will require superb railways, roadways, and inland waterways, and will need efficient, rapid means for moving high volumes of cargo from the dock to the secondary mode of transportation.
The reliability and productivity of the labor force in a port will influence how favorably a port is viewed by the shipping industry. The success of these developments will become important in determining which ports evolve into load centers.
North America is the largest market, and surveys indicate that 56 percent of Americans want to take cruises, while only 11 percent have done so.
These ferries will be the fastest in the world, significantly reducing the commute to and from New York and between Long Island and Connecticut. As a result of these vast cable networks, new infrastructure for cable repair and maintenance will be required for support. Societal and cultural mores provide a starting point from which a nation's children begin making decisions about the seemliness of drug use. Given that any program attempting to alter perceptions of drug use will require time to take effect, (reversing perceptions of tobacco use took 20 years) the number of chronic users will not be significantly altered by 2020.
Public perceptions of these drugs as "dangerous" will likely keep them confined to the U.S. They will be able to weather law enforcement attacks on specific drug production nodes and survive. Countries most vulnerable to being overwhelmed by drug producers are those that have weak central governments, access to regional or global drug markets, and remote areas where illegal drugs can be cultivated without detection.
Smugglers moving smaller loads by speedboat will have more capable platforms than vessels currently in use, and future amateur smugglers will be able to effectively use traditional smuggling techniques with some degree of success.


With the soaring of container shipping, regional transportation systems are increasingly becoming intermodal.114 International trading blocs are connecting their container moving systems (road, rail, and sea) together to allow for easy cargo passage through international boundaries. Innovations such as super efficient engines or jet drives may significantly increase their operating range, and new computers may allow for the remote operation of high-speed delivery vehicles from an airplane or remote site.
This "cost" of doing business is one example of the typical smuggler's flexibility using conventional methods. Although future drug control programs will need to develop and then emphasize demand reduction strategies, the interdiction of drugs at sea will remain a major tenet in reducing the available drug supply. The various groups involved in these conflicts will often desire arms to help obtain their goals by force, if necessary, ensuring a thriving illicit arms trafficking business in 2020. In some cases, profits from drug trafficking provide the funds that insurgents need to purchase weapons.
Arms caches from civil wars and military armories sold on the black market will contribute to the growing diffusion of small arms and light weapons in the years ahead.
An investigation revealed the weapons were originally part of a larger arms shipment from Israel to the Caribbean nation of Antigua and Barbuda.
These shipments will be difficult to detect, especially those shipped among legitimate cargo by the large smuggling operations that exploit the legitimate transportation infrastructure. In the past, migrants trying to enter the United States unassisted have attempted to do so en masse, individually, and by stowing away.
Currently, the greatest immigration threat from these methods comes from Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. In the future, stowaways will continue to engage in dangerous clandestine boardings and transits on commercial vessels. Alien smuggling in the future will grow increasingly complicated as organized crime expands its infrastructure to capture a share of the $10 billion dollar illicit human trafficking business.138 As a result, a majority of migrants bound for the United States over the next 20 years will likely do so via illegal methods. For transportation, smugglers will continue to rely on decrepit bulk freighters and converted fishing vessels for long distance movement and smaller motorboats for shorter distances. Although in limited use for alien smuggling in the Caribbean, bulk freighters are the primary transportation for Chinese organized crime syndicates moving illegal Chinese to the United States.
Bahamian-based smugglers use 20-30-foot vessels to move Cubans, Haitians, Indians, and Pakistanis, as well as migrants of other nationalities into the United States from Bimini (40 miles) or Grand Bahama (50 miles).
Fourteen people died in the December 1998 accident, which is one of the worst accidents involving suspected migrant smuggling.
Cuban migrants have been known to pay fishermen to take them from Cuba to remote uninhabited Bahamian islands such as Cay Sal. As mentioned earlier, third countries will continue to be major gateways for illegal migration to the United States.
Because of the high value developed countries will place on preserving as pristine a marine environment as possible, they will continue the trend toward more regulation and stricter standards in shipping and environmental protection, and will devote the resources necessary to obtain their goal.
In this context, maritime terrorism, though currently only a low-level threat, has the potential to spread and become more effective in the event of political change on land. This is because the conditions necessary for a successful terrorist attack can be fulfilled on water only with difficulty. In terms of China’s peacekeeping commitments, in December 2015, with just over 3,000 troops and police, China was the seventh highest contributor of uniformed personnel numbers to UN missions. This is its preferred domain of military competition and confrontation, not in naval platforms for interdiction of merchant shipping in the open ocean. However, we believe it may also be of value to the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, and other government organizations having responsibilities or interest in maritime affairs or transnational issues. The United States faces both international and domestic challenges to ensure its fisheries remain sustainable. Under the FAO's optimistic scenario, where fisheries management is improved, marine fisheries production will meet heavy worldwide demand for fish in 2010.
The United States has just completed such an effort to reduce the size of the New England fleet.
Furthermore, in the face of escalating demand for fish, limiting access will require significant commitment to enforcing any restrictions on fishing. One example of international cooperation is the ongoing multilateral conferences on establishing a mechanism for the conservation and management of highly migratory fish stocks in the Central and Western Pacific. More coastal areas (See Table III-1) are likely to be designated as National Marine Sanctuaries, largely due to increasing development of mineral, hydrocarbon, living marine and gravel resources. Production from the ocean waters themselves, rich in mineral deposits and holding tremendous energy potential, may become commercially viable, at least in some regions. In fact, the marine mines have actually become more profitable than diamond mining on land. This will spur serious research into the viability of methane hydrate as an energy source, and by 2020 may lead to solutions to the safety and environmental challenges posed by methane hydrate production at sea. This exploitation will be affected by two factors: continued government restriction and a push to deeper waters.
By 2020, offshore production will be characterized by wells located in deeper waters and, as it is today, will be focused in the Gulf of Mexico. President Clinton's directive also added a permanent ban on oil and gas development in fragile marine sanctuaries. Developments such as the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) have been only marginally successful. In the United States, OTEC technology is focused on the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and islands such as Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.42 OTEC facilities can be built on land, submerged on the continental shelf, or designed to float on the surface.
Most likely, any deepwater development will be opposed by some environmental activist groups, who may protest ashore or at sea. The fishing industry is practically non-regulated in this area, and overfishing has caused the near extinction of species such as the Patagonian toothfish (also known as Argentine Sea Bass). These developments along with several others will continue to pose maritime safety challenges for the United States. These large container ships, sometimes referred to as mega-ships or super ships, are usually 4,500 TEU63 or larger and require 43-47 feet of water. Increasing energy demand in the United States and decreasing domestic petroleum production will drive oil imports from 46 percent of U.S. The Caribbean will remain the top destination of cruise ships, with approximately 60 percent of such traffic,86 but more routes will open to remote areas such as South Pacific islands, the Amazon, and Antarctica.
The SeaConn system will operate seven vessels, each 214 feet long and capable of speeds in excess of 60 knots. The recent and projected growth of the cable industry represents a significant resurgence, which could grow considerably during the next twenty years if initial networks prove successful. The corrupting influence of the organized crime groups controlling these activities will threaten the safety of peoples and the security of governments. Since attitudes formed early tend to stay with one throughout life, teen opinions and attitudes about drug use are an important predictor of what a future market may look like. This flexibility will be largely due to an increased use of technology to support highly mobile operations and to improve both operational security and production methods. These conditions exist in many Eurasian countries of the former Soviet-bloc,105, 106 as well as some developing African nations.107 With the drug trade's significant profit potential, several of these countries will likely fall into the ranks of those where drug production is already endemic. Large-scale cannabis growers use computer-controlled, warehouse-sized hydroponics hot houses to grow thousands of plants in optimum growth conditions.109 With computers controlling water, plant food, light, and heat, fewer people are required, decreasing labor costs and improving operational security. In addition to offering future drug transporters simplicity and convenience for shipping their product, the sheer volume of cargo being shipped via this method ensures no one specific shipment will be scrutinized too carefully. Traffickers will continue to exploit gaps in law enforcement capability as well as legal and political impediments to international enforcement efforts. In the United States, the greatest maritime challenge with respect to small arms and light weapons is and will remain their illegal exportation; overseas, the illicit arms market will operate worldwide.
The enormous number of small arms that supported the civil wars in Central and South America in the 1980s remain in circulation on the black market. The smuggling scheme involved Israelis, Antiguans, Panamanians, and Colombians who attempted to use legitimate covers to divert weapons to the Medellin drug cartel.
Small arms will continue to be used by rogue states, insurgents, terrorists, and criminal organizations, any of which can threaten the ability of international organizations and national governments to maintain stability. While some migrants will make these attempts on their own or en masse, others will receive assistance from family, friends, or paid smugglers to avoid detection and capture by border control forces.
Each of these methods has met with varying degrees of success, but has been effective enough to ensure future migrants will continue its use.
In the Haitian cases, thousands of people crowded onto dilapidated wooden sailboats to leave Haiti for the United States. Migrants from these countries often use the islands of the Bahamas as a waypoint en route to the United States.
In some cases, these attempts will prove deadly as it did for the 31 Dominican migrants who died from asphyxiation after attempting to hide in a shipping container in August 1998.136 In this case the migrants only endangered themselves, but some attempts endanger the ship and crew as well.
These vessels are unable to earn money by legitimate means, making them exploitable targets for organized crime groups who will easily obtain the crew and vessel's services. Once there, relatives or another hired smuggler bring them to the United States or inhabited Bahamian Islands where they work or attempt to obtain false immigration documents. It is only by addressing the issue of generalised maritime disorder that the problems of piracy and maritime terrorism may be controlled in the long term. The number of incidents is insignificant, not even worth a separate mention in the US State Department’s Patterns of Global Terrorism reports. In September 2015, President Xi announced that China would establish a standby force of 8,000 peacekeepers.
In 2013 and 2014, China and the United States held joint anti-piracy exercises in the patrol area. In spite of China’s wealth, there is an upper limit to its naval ship-building unless it moves to war mobilization. These efforts are less effective if capacity is simply transferred from one fishery to another, such as in places like Italy, China, and Taiwan, where conversion programs have allowed former high seas driftnetters to enter other fisheries.
Enforcement will be required to ensure domestic fishermen are obeying restrictions and to protect fisheries from foreign exploitation. The ambitious aim of the 23 countries involved is to manage highly migratory stocks over a 20 million square mile area, using tools such as a comprehensive registry of fishing vessels, a vessel monitoring system, and at-sea boardings of vessels whose countries are signatories to the eventual agreement.
Diamond mining occurs off the Namibian coast as well, where it is a billion-dollar industry.14 Technology developed in sophisticated marine diamond mining operations may be applied to mining for other minerals as well, decreasing development costs.
There are immense sand and gravel reserves on the outer continental shelf, with estimates of over 2 trillion cubic meters on the Atlantic shelf alone.16 Already, six large sand-dredging projects are operating on the outer continental shelf along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
Second, there are still vast deposits of liquid land- and ocean-based methane (natural gas) available for extraction, much of it using existing technology. A 1998 presidential directive under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, which limits offshore oil and natural gas development to the Gulf Coast and parts of Alaska through 2012, will continue to stem industry growth in most of the U.S.
Bulk and break-bulk cargoes make up half of all cargo (by volume) entering or leaving the United States,67 and will continue to account for a large portion in 2020.
Feeder ports still will play an important role in maritime trade, even though they will not handle volumes of cargo nearly as large as those moved through the load centers.79 Unlike the load centers, feeder ports will be less affected by global developments in the shipping industry. The ability of these organized crime groups to form alliances and easily permeate international borders in 2020 will intensify their threat to the state. In the unlikely event that marijuana is eventually legalized, enforcement officers will still need to be vigilant against traffickers importing other dangerous drugs. Organized crime syndicates will provide effective business planning and will make use of their significant financial power to corrupt the authorities in a growing number of countries.
Other improvements in the technical process have increased plant yields in both coca leaves and marijuana. In the wake of the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, the 15 Soviet successor states, faced with severe economic challenges, will become increasingly willing to auction off ex-Soviet military hardware to the highest bidders.126 Ex-Soviet military equipment, therefore, will remain available, if not become more common, on the black market.
The operation began in March 1989 when 500 assault rifles and ammunition left Haifa, Israel, aboard the motor vessel ELSE THUESEN bound for Central and South America via Antigua. Interdiction and prevention of illicit small arms and light weapons will continue to present a significant challenge to both U.S. In July 1998, the crew of an Italian ship located five Tunisian stowaways and locked them in a cabin to secure them for the authorities. Although these vessels' poor condition and lack of life saving equipment make them hazardous to use, their relatively high availability, low cost, and nondescript characteristics will continue to be attractive to future smugglers.
Conversely, the developing states will not have the means, even if they have the will, to enact effective measures to protect the seas adjacent to their countries. In December 2015, China’s naval ships in the Arabian Sea held their first anti-piracy exercise with NATO.
Moreover, if it wanted to attack commercial shipping in the South China Sea, it would use land-based first assets first, those based along its 4,000 kilometers mainland coast on that sea or on its very large island of Hainan (coastline of 1.500km), both of which dominate the northern entry to the sea. The advantage of ITQs over programs like "days at sea" limitations is that ITQs give fishermen a vested interest in protecting their resource since they are only allowed to fish up to their quotas.
Even so, Japan has begun drilling an exploratory well for methane hydrate extraction, and the U.S.
Cargo freight rates for these vessels that operate in the Atlantic have remained relatively stable as demand for shipments between the United States and Europe has fluctuated.
These ports will strive to diversify into bulk and break-bulk trades to avoid dependence on the container industry.
The North American Free Trade Agreement further enhanced the competitiveness of Halifax and other non-U.S. In Colombia, chemical process improvements have yielded higher purity heroin than that of rival producers in Mexico. In the recent past, for example, the Chechens fought the Russian Army to a standstill, and Somali clans weathered an intervention by modern Western forces.
While in Antigua, the container, presumably filled with weapons, was transferred to the motor vessel SEAPOINT which was supposedly bound for Panama. The migrants then reportedly set a fire in an attempt to escape rather than face forced repatriation. Staging will allow smugglers the opportunity to observe law enforcement capabilities and judge weaknesses prior to the final landing. Waters abutting most developing states will, therefore, be more polluted in 2020 than today. Under a "days at sea" program, fishermen are limited in how many days they can fish, but there are no restrictions on the amount of fish they can catch during those days. Department of Energy is researching the feasibility of methane hydrate as an energy source. Oil and natural gas developments in water depths greater than 1,000 feet, otherwise referred to as "deepwater" activities, will become an increasingly important part of future production in the few areas where drilling is permitted. The push toward larger container ships is being driven by profit considerations; simply, more containers aboard a vessel decreases the cost per container. In the Pacific market, Asian economic difficulties and currency devaluations have greatly reduced the demand for cargo shipments from the United States to Asia, but the demand for shipments from Asia to the United States has actually increased. In the future, technology may allow producers to further increase plant yields, cheaply produce synthetic versions of organic drug components, or even mask indicators of drug use.
Customs while in the Port of Long Beach because they were not destined for the United States. Unable to break free, the five stowaways died in the cabin's bathroom.137 As these examples illustrate, some personal situations are so dire that migrants will assume great risk in order to escape their present circumstances. Smuggling into nearby countries such as Mexico and Canada will also likely increase as well as to U.S. Several factors will contribute in varying degrees to the degradation of the marine environment. Other programs for limiting access include closing specific areas to fishing (or to a particular fishery) and restricting access to an area to certain permitted vessels. Should these research and development efforts bring technological breakthroughs, deepwater methane hydrate extraction could become a burgeoning business by 2020. Mega-ships primarily will visit a few major load centers, which can handle the ship size and cargo volume.
Generally, when one market slows down, excess vessels can be moved quickly into other markets.
The policies and actions of the United States, such as routine Coast Guard patrols north of Haiti and within the Mona Passage, direct repatriation of migrants, and the May 1995 Immigration Accords with Cuba have helped deter mass migrations. With the global economy creating ever-widening rifts between socioeconomic classes, future efforts by the world's poor to escape will likely become more dramatic and entail increasing danger. These larger (35-40 foot) offshore sport fishing boats and racing boats can move small family groups (four to six persons) at speeds of 30 knots or more. That number will likely increase through the next 20 years because of overfishing in other areas of the world. While 98 percent by weight of all cargo leaving or entering the United States currently passes through U.S. With these measures in place, the likelihood of future mass migrations has been reduced, though certainly not eliminated. Although stowaway movements will continue to account for only a small fraction of global illegal migrant movement, the inherent danger of this practice to the migrants, the ship, and its crew will continue to make this issue a concern for the United States. The larger size of these vessels gives them improved sea-keeping ability on this longer trip (100-150 miles from the Cuban north coast to the Florida Keys). For example, many fisheries in Asian waters are overexploited, or even depleted, while demand there is expected to increase substantially.
Interdicting illegal migrants at sea (whether they are assisted or unassisted) will continue to remain a serious challenge for the United States.
Second, increased deepwater oil production in the Gulf likely will require tankers as well as pipelines to move oil ashore.
Since migrants interdicted at sea are afforded less legal recourse than those caught within the U.S.



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