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Developed by Jackson Fambrough, PASR uses economic principles to predict where top college basketball recruits will attend college.
Utility, in an economic sense, means the satisfaction or happiness received from consuming a good or service.
The model’s main purpose is to show which school will provide a recruit with the highest possible expected utility.


Expected utility is divided into two different categories, short-term utility (the 1-4 years the recruit is in school) and long-term utility (the years after they leave the university).
The model, which can be found here, predicts where the Top 150 College Basketball players will attend school. So if you are a big fan of Carolina basketball recruiting, you should get a subscription to see which recruits are most likely to go to UNC. The PASR database also goes all the way back to 2006, so you can see what the model predicted for each player for the last 10 years or so.
That got me thinking — which recruits did the model expect to go to Carolina, and what would the team look like if those recruits ended up choosing Chapel Hill?


I looked at the PASR model, found recruits that were just misses for the Tar Heels and analysed how the team would look if they would have signed. I only did this exercise for three seasons, so if you want to do it for the rest of Carolina’s seasons, you will have to buy the subscription for yourself (again, I highly suggest it.) Let’s start with the 2006 UNC Basketball Fantasy Recruiting Class.




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