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Index score: (100 = National Average) for an area is compared to the national average of 100.
In my annual winter weather preview back in August, I wrote that thanks to a superstrong El Niño, this year is special.
In its winter outlook, issued last month, the Weather Channel said the odds are slightly tilted toward the former, thanks to a better-than-average chance of blocking patterns—semistable atmospheric anomalies that tend to send cold air toward the East Coast.
Bottom line: As it looks right now, the East Coast seems in line for a fairly harsh winter, with plenty of snow and ice, especially for interior parts of New York and New England. Eric Holthaus is a meteorologist who writes about weather and climate for Slatea€™s Future Tense. A score of 200 indicates twice the national average, while 50 indicates half the national average.

Behind all the anxiety (for most of us) and anticipation (for masochists and skiers), there’s really only one question: How much snow are we going to get?
In general, their outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions on the East Coast during the peak winter months but takes a pass on saying how much of this will fall as snow. Now, sure, basing a forecast for a tough East Coast winter on just two past examples is a risky thing to do, but the fact is, there aren’t too many years like 2015 in the historical weather databases. 16, 2015: A previous version of this post misidentified the North Atlantic oscillation as the North American oscillation. Neither of those winters featured especially strong blocking on the East Coast, so it wasn’t typically cold enough for the frequent storms to turn into snow.
Both were epic snowfall seasons on the East Coast—and averaged 20 inches above normal snowfall in New York City.

Right on cue, the weather in the East looks like it will be turning sharply colder this weekend, with a good chance of the season’s first freeze in many locations. Still, it’s not going to be nearly as cold as the near-record chill of last winter, especially in Boston and the rest of New England. A higher Hail, Hurricane or Tornado Index means the chance of that weather event is higher (higher number bad).

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