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22.04.2016
Exporters also suggested they were more concerned about the negative impact of the strength of the pound against the euro than the US dollar.A Just over a third said the value of the pound against the euro was having a negative impact on their exports, compared to the one in five who said the same for the value of the pound against the dollar. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.
EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. The proactive release of open government data is helping to transform public services at the national and subnational levels. On average across OECD countries, just over half (54%) of citizens reported having confidence in their country’s judicial system and courts. A vast majority of people in most OECD countries are satisfied with the availability of quality health services in the area where they live. On average, across OECD countries, about 67% of citizens reported being satisfied with their education system and schools however with a 38-percentage-point difference between the top and bottom-ranked countries. Government at a Glance 2015 provides reliable, internationally comparative data on government activities and their results in OECD countries and beyond. The details of Nielsen’s report are outlined below to help guide your retail and marketing decisions. A score of 100 indicates a neutral level of confidence, while numbers above and below 100 reflect optimism and pessimism respectively.
47% of Canadians said they believed the country was in a recession, as opposed to 50% at the same time last year. The increase in positive perception reflects a positive reality: the most recent data from Statistics Canada indicates that August saw a 59,000 increase in employment numbers, and an average of 12,000 per month over the last six months. When asked whether now was a good time to purchase the things they want and need given their current financial situation, only 42% of Canadians said yes.
The number of Canadians who felt their finances were good dropped from 60% last year to 51% this quarter. 40% of Canadians are using their spare money to pay off debt, versus 25% of global respondents and 30% of US respondents. Retailers in one of the above five areas seeking to compete with giant retailers, as well as retailers in other areas seeking to tap into the online sales market, can do certain things to attract Canadian customers to their online stores.
32% of these ended up purchasing from US retailers, despite the higher shipping and duties costs. 65% of Canadian online shoppers said the ability to return in-store the products they purchased online was an important or critical factor in deciding whether or not to purchase.
Solution: If you want to push the envelope of your retail process, having a good digital strategy means more than having a stellar website.
Because we presently have a more constructive view of the market, we continue to run the fund a little more aggressively.  The cash weighting remains low and we have also been less aggressive in writing call options, with just over 12% covered as of mid-February. The January Effect is a market anomaly whereby stocks rise in January, presumably as investors re-purchase positions sold in December for tax purposes.  This is good news for investors as a strong January usually translates into a strong year, especially when returns are over 5%. In fact, the annual gain was over 19% every year, except for one, the market crash of 1987. Not surprisingly given these returns, investors were busy buying stocks in January, with TrimTabs Research estimating $78-billion flowed into to stock mutual funds and ETF’s, the largest monthly injection since at least 2000.
Investors have been busy pulling money out of stocks since 2008 and despite good returns last year, J.P.
Going forward, investors are likely to allocate more to equities, but we are not sure there will a mass exodus out of bonds. Another reason why the shift should be gradual is fundamentals for stock investing are actually not that great.  Don’t get us wrong, the economy is brightening, but perhaps not as much as would be indicated by stock market returns in January. While fourth quarter earnings have been coming in better than expected, corporate earnings estimates for 2013 have in fact been coming down and companies continue to scale back investment. There seems to be a disconnect between investor sentiment and fundamentals.  We like the prospects for equities, especially versus bonds, but perhaps the market is a little ahead of itself. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats believe the indiscriminant cuts are good policy, but the Republicans appear firm that any new deal must involve a reduction in spending. Republican concerns over unsustainable government deficits were partially confirmed by the updated projections from Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which indicate that even with the spending cuts, debt to GDP will hit 77% by 2023. The CBO estimates an additional $2-trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years are needed in order to get U.S. Even though the deficit is projected to decline over the next few years (assuming the economy continues to recover), higher healthcare spending will result in the budget deficit resuming its upward trajectory by 2016. It is estimated healthcare spending currently consumes nearly 25% of all federal spending and the CBO projects this will increase to nearly 33% in 10 years. Of course, there are also opportunities to cut costs.  It is estimated 20% of health care spending is associated with either over treatment, inefficient coordination among providers and fraud. This is pretty anemic – and Germany is the best of the lot.  Pretty hard to get your fiscal house in order with numbers like these. It’s not all doom and gloom for the Euro-zone, however.  Economic reforms are being implemented and countries, such as Greece, are becoming more competitive. Also, the promise by ECB President Mario Draghi to do “whatever it takes” to keep the Euro-zone together has helped stabilize confidence in the Euro and the bond market.


Other potential flash points include bailouts for Cyprus and Spain (finally applying for OMT [Outright Monetary Transactions] relief) and progress on previously announced plan for a Euro-zone banking union. Even house prices have started climb again, increasing for the second month in a row in January.  Of course, this is not good for inflation, which, in combination with the coldest winter in three decades, has peaked government officials’ concerns over rising prices. Inflation is not China’s only problem, however.  Income inequality is a growing concern and a priority for government officials. Despite considerably lower official estimates, if “hidden” income is included, it is estimated the richest 10% of Chinese households earn 65 times that of the poorest 10%. State planners have been trying to get a plan approved to narrow the gap between the rich and poor for the past eight years without success. New Communist Party Chief and incoming President Xi Jinping has a new plan that would increase taxes for state-owned firms in order to fund welfare programs with the goal of shifting 1-2% of China’s GDP to the household sector by 2015. Of course, rather than reduce income inequality, it could be the government’s priority to maintain the status quo.  We say this because government officials are a large part of the problem.
Of the 3,000 members of China’s National People’s Congress, 75 appear on the Hurun Report’s 2012 richest 1,024 list (don’t ask me why the list is 1,024 and not an even 1,000) with an average wealth of over $1-billion. What’s more, of the richest 1,024, those that are also members of the National People’s Congress have seen their incomes grow much faster than those with no national political position. If China wants to increase consumer spending, they need to narrow the income gap and drastically enhance the social safety net.  Long term, this is the only way the Chinese economy will be able to continue to grow.
Federal government spending fell 15% – the largest decline since 1973 – and included a 22% decrease in defense spending (also largest since 1973). While the decline in GDP was an unwelcome surprise, healthy contribution to growth from private economy sectors such as housing, business investment and consumer spending, was encouraging.
Most feel there is a greater chance GDP grows faster than expected and put the odds of “greater than 3% growth” at 24% versus odds of a recession at 17%.
January was an average month for job growth, but upward revisions to November and December encouraged investors. This is a good thing, because workers who have been jobless for a long period of time risk having their skills erode and becoming permanently unemployable.
Currently, there are an estimated 4.8 million Americans who have been out of work for six months or more. Inflation remains well under control, and more importantly, so are inflationary expectations. Consumer confidence indices gave contradictory signals in January as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose slightly while the Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since November 2011. The increase in the University of Michigan index was apparently due to increased optimism among higher wage earners, who are not impacted as much by the 2% increase in payroll tax. December retail sales were lackluster, but January same store sales were stronger than expected as a resolution to the fiscal cliff and enticing discounts put consumers in a buying mood.
That mood might not last, however, as the Tax Policy Center estimates the payroll tax increase could take $900 to $1,000 out of consumer pocket books this year. In addition, the last minute fiscal cliff deal will result in a delay to the tax filing season and result in tax refunds arriving later than normal.  This could result in even weaker retail sales earlier in the year. While existing home sales were down slightly in December, 2012 was a turnaround year for the housing market. Hedge funds have been very active with John Paulson, who literally made billions betting against the housing market in 2006-7, having bought enough land to build up to 25,000 homes in California, Arizona and Nevada. Deutsche Bank sees prices increasing another 5-10% in 2013 and believes the housing sector could add up to 2% to GDP growth this year.  While we believe the housing market has turned, we are perhaps a little more cautious than Deutsche Bank. The housing market still has a long way to go and the market is already discounting a strong rebound.  We think investors will have to be selective in where they allocate capital. The trade deficit widened slightly in November with imports up nearly 4%.  Apparently iPhone sales were the major reason for the increase and, unfortunately for Apple, this is unlikely to be sustainable. While oil and gas extraction was strong in November, low oil prices have been a drag on Canada’s economic growth, with the Bank of Canada estimating lower prices shaved 0.4% off GDP growth in the last 6 months of 2012. Depressed oil prices are also a major reason why the Bank of Canada lowered its 2013 growth rate 0.3% to 2% for 2013.
Ben Rabidoux of M Hanson Advisers recently pointed out that the housing related sector, (which includes construction, insurance and real estate services) is estimated to account for 27% of Canadian GDP and has accounted for 44% of GDP growth since 2005. Canada’s labour market got off to a poor start in 2013, losing 22,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate decreased to 7%, however, as 57,500 workers left the labour force. While the poor January job report is not good news, it is not surprising given the strong gains over the past couple of months. November retail sales came in slightly better than expected, but October was revised lower.  Low interest rates and a strong job market (this month excluded) should keep consumer spending healthy in Canada.
Expect moderation from previous months due to a slowing housing market, but retail sales should continue to expand. Pricing continues to hold up, but sales remain on a downward trajectory.  More worrisome, the construction industry looks to be slowing rapidly with housing starts and permits down sharply. Canada has averaged around 210,000 housing starts per year over the past decade while demographic demand has been about 180,000-185,000.  We over built for a long period of time, so it would not be unexpected to under build for a period of time.
So far, sellers don’t seem desperate to sell and are more inclined to take their homes off the market rather than lower prices.  If this changes, prices could fall rapidly.


The trade deficit widened in November as imports rose nearly 3% due to higher electronic and electrical equipment volumes (The iPhone 5 Effect?). Low oil & gas prices and a slowing housing market are major concerns for the Canadian economy.
Sign up to receive Nicola Wealth management’s insights on wealth planning and investing. Confidence in the manufacturing sector fell most significantlyThe number of businesses concerned about falling UK demand has risen by two per cent from 29 per cent in July.
However the net balance of companies that said that they were very concerned about a rise in interest rates dropped slightly from 16 to 14 per cent. Confidence is down 15 per cent compared with 18 months agoOther factors also suggested concern has increased among the business community.
Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. In addition to making data available to citizens, countries that rank the highest also report a higher level of data re-use and creation of applications. Significant differences exist across OECD countries with 80% satisfaction in the highest-ranked countries and less than 20% in the lowest ranked.
Below are some of the common problems and solutions you can apply to increase online sales. In waiting areas like public transit stops and airports, images of different products are displayed on a wall, each accompanied by a QR code. Morgan estimates a net $9-billion was redeemed in 2011 and 2012.  Could the tide be finally turning in equities favor?
Money was actually still moving into bond funds in January and the source of the equity buying was more likely from investors draining cash positions.
Medicare has 50 million enrollees presently and it is expected 80 million will be eligible by 2030.  Expensive new drugs and an increase in chronic diseases which are costly to treat, add to the cost.
2013 will be a challenging year, however, with Italian elections in February likely the first test. Workers unemployed for six months or more actually accounted for nearly the entire 843,000 person drop in total joblessness over the past year. Effective SEO means focusing on your customers, optimizing their experience, and making sure your website is designed for easy navigation. Customers can use their phones to scan the code for the products they wish to purchase, and the items are delivered to their home.
Hopefully, this indicates corporate America is finally starting to deploy some of the large cash reserve they have been hoarding. While this is not matched by investment intentions it could put upward pressure on inflation through 2016 as the extent of overall slack in the economy continues to diminish.'While expectations of higher interest rates have increased, firms seem relatively relaxed by the prospect, having had further time to prepare for the first rate rise.
Instead, you can focus on addressing the other major issues with your online store, the ones that drive Canadians to other websites even when it means paying more. The practice was initiated by Tesco in 2011 in South Korea and has since been adopted by retailers and manufacturers throughout the world, including giants like Walmart, Procter & Gamble, and Mattel. Burberry also happens to have designed clothing and accessories with tags that can be scanned in-store by a mirror or with a mobile device, triggering a video showing how a given item was manufactured. While the rate of increase has moderated, the continued upward trend indicates a sustained appetite for dealmaking. Their in-store representatives are armed with iPads and the company has a very active social media presence, not only on Facebook and Twitter but also on Chinese social media sites.
Executives are not pursuing deals without a strong strategic rationale, and they are prepared to walk away from those that do not have one.
We see further evidence of this discipline in the deal metrics, which, while high, are not yet at levels seen in previous market upturns.
This sentiment is driven by executives' positive outlook regarding the global economy and their resilience in the face of a persistently low-growth environment.
However, the trend since 2014 has been toward more upper-middle-market deals (between US$250 million and US$1 billion), which now make up more than a quarter of planned M&A.
This trend corresponds with the direction of the 2015 year-to-date M&A market: We have seen an increased number of deals across all value ranges, except those below US$50 million.
But while these megadeals are a vital component of total M&A transacted value, they make up a small proportion of the total population of deals. Executives do expect more of these megadeals over the next 12 months, even as only a small percentage of companies plan to pursue them.
China and India also remain attractive destinations for investors, notwithstanding recent concerns about the wider Asia-Pacific region's economic growth and stability. The ongoing program of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank may also help improve dealmaking in the eurozone.



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