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Posted on 19 February 2012 by Rob PaintingIncreased concentrations of greenhouse gases, from the burning of fossil fuels, slows the loss of heat from Earth's atmosphere to space. Because this planetary heat imbalance is tiny compared to the energy coming in from the sun, and the heat being radiated back out to space, it is too small to be measured directly by satellites. Loeb (2012) takes an updated look at the issue and finds that, using observations rather than modeled estimates, the Earth's energy imbalance is consistent with heat building up with the Earth system. Figure 1 - typical dive cycle of the ARGO submersible float system - the most detailed set of ocean heat observations yet obtained. Earth's energy budget is determined by measuring how much energy comes into the Earth system from the sun, how much is lost to space as heat, and accounting for the remainder on Earth.
The oceans, however, cover over 70% of the Earth's surface, are dark-coloured (meaning they absorb sunlight readily) and, due to their enormous heat capacity compared to that of the atmosphere and land, store over 90% of the excess energy from global warming. The ARGO float network consists of 3000 autonomous devices, distributed around the world's oceans, that sink down to depths of up to 2000 metres taking measurements of ocean temperature as they ascend up through the water column.
These are ship-launched devices that unfurl a trailing a copper wire as they descend down into the depths.
From 1990 to 2002 these XBT's made up the bulk of ocean heat measurements, however because they were sparsely sampled in both time and space, numerous corrections and mapping strategies have had to be employed to remove errors and bias from the data set. The light green area I've highlighted (in figure 2[a]) is the time period where the XBT were the dominant source of ocean heat content data. Also notable is the substantial variation in ocean heating rates between the three different ocean heat content data sets. As mentioned in the introduction, the satellites which measure incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of Earth's atmosphere (TOA) cannot measure the small planetary energy imbalance brought about by global warming. In order to compare these satellite-based observations with ocean heat content it is necessary to anchor the data to an absolute scale. An obvious feature of the satellite TOA observations (figure 4) is that they do not show a sharp decline between 2002-2005 - the time of the transition from XBT to ARGO. Global warming is the result of a greenhouse gas-caused imbalance between incoming solar energy and heat that the Earth radiates away to space.
Previous attempts to estimate this planetary imbalance relied on climate models rather than observations because sufficiently detailed observations were not available then. Loeb (2012) combined ocean heat content data, top-of-the-atmosphere satellite observations, heat absorbed by the land and atmosphere, and the energy required to melt ice. The uncertainties are large due to the short length of robust observations, and because ARGO only samples down to 2000 metres - less than half the average depth of the global oceans.
Although the deep ocean will have absorbed far less heat the the surface ocean it cannot be neglected in order to adequately balance the Earth's energy budget.
The huge margin of uncertainty and the disparate heating rates between the three ocean heat data sets vindicate Kevin Trenberth's appeal that "we (the scientific community) must do better", but they will improve as the length of the observational record grows, and if proposed deep ocean observations, such as Deep Ninja, are put into place. Last night I was researching TOA measurements, and came to the conclusion that we do not have the ability to measure these with great confidence.
If there is no open source for this paper, I will aquire a copy of it to read and absorb for a better understanding of the conclusion.
To get a naive 'best estimate' of the imbalance would require something like the bayesian interval of Hansen, Trenberth and Loeb. In a previous discussion with Tom Curtis on SkS, about confidence level, I was said that 95% is a "conventional" level in statistical significance.
There is already a shortage in the known sources to account for the rise-rate, and absolute sea level, since 1950.
However some scientists, notably James Hansen, point out that observations of ocean warming are slower than the models predict.
If true this is very bad, there may be much more warming unmasked when atmospheric pollution declines.
Very interesting to see figures based on observations agree with the theory and the models in that there is an imbalance between incoming and outgoing energy, even if the magnitude may be less than models predicted. If the masking is due to aersols (which we would then have to keep generating at current rates to maintain the cooling) or anything cyclic (which can thus swing back again), then we're totally screwed.
Even if the coefft of thermal expansion changes with pressure & temperature, the rough amount of heat ending up below 2000m should be calculable to some extent, wouldn't it?
I'd like to point out that the last ten years have demonstrated an unusual number of strong La Nina events. So the imbalance measured for the last decade will be low (compared to a longer average) simply because of the way the winds have tended to blow in the Pacific for the past ten years. The imbalance of radiation found as lower in this paper is using measured states of radiation.
I posted Clement eta 2011 and now on reading my post it looks like I was discussing this paper, when in fact I am discussing the paper presented in the above article. Interestingly, Trenberth has given some critical comments of the paper as referred by science journalist David Appell. If you are talking about surface warming, there is a serious problem in the central argument presented here. If we were to stop emissions tomorrow, there will still be decades of warming before the TOA imbalance is addressed - simply due to thermal inertia. From the original post (just above first graphic): "It puts paid to wishful thinking-based claims that global warming has halted." - what does "It puts paid" mean? I presume that number will get revised up as the balance of evidence suggests a higher number. I own a swimming pool centre with 2 pools, a toddlers wading pool and an olympic size swiming pool. So if we have made a one off adjustment to the valve ( a step change in GH gas levels ) then eventually levels in both pools will stabilise and the valve will shut off - no more imbalance. However what we are actually doing is slowly but ointinually adjusting the valve higher and higher. So your example of stopping all emissions is the equivalent of stopping adjusting the valve higher. The real world situation would obviously be more complex enough but in essence the world must keep warming until surface temperatures rise high enough to cancel out the energy imbalance. Neil - If you are talking about surface warming, there is a serious problem in the central argument presented here. I hope you can follow the distinction here - not all forcing from historic greenhouse gases have been used up.
I can't find a copy of the paper, but it was discussed over at Real Climate by climate modeler Gavin Schmidt back in 2010.
The recent GRACE paper suggests a slightly lower contribution of land-based ice melt to sea level rise, which, if confirmed ,indicates greater thermal expansion than previously supposed.
The article is available at the link I provided above, with the title: Committed climate warming.
1) stop emissions [so as to consider an ideal case of 'committed warming from past emissions']. Please recognize that this is a key concept behind why the "cumulative carbon emissions" methodologies work.
Given the ~40-50% of emissions absorbed by the oceans per year (~2+ppm), there would be a half-life of ~40 years on the over equilibrium CO2 for just the simplest absorption case. Neil - As I stated earlier, I can't locate a full copy of the Matthews & Weaver paper, so have to rely on commentary at Real Climate. If a patient comes to you with prove that they are in pain then it is legit and you should prescribe the correct medication and dosage for that patient. I have seen my life in ruins from metal poisoning thanks to the FDA which allows medical device manufacturers to implant cheap neurotoxins into our bodies. The cowards that blame the victim (in the case the patient with pain)should get out of the practice of medicine. Health professionals, acknowledge that stoicism, reluctance to take drugs, cultural differences, feelings of resignation and other factors often inhibit patients from talking about their pain. Health professionals, the public, law enforcement agents, and even people in pain often believe that using pain-relieving drugs will lead to addiction. Doctors these days have their hands tied by the government , about the only way for people to get opiate pain killers is to either just call yourself an addict and go on Suboxone or methadone Dr , or go on the deep web and order heroin or strong opiates in countries that dont mind sending you Oxycodone ,or morphine or heroin by mail, beware these new opiate laws have swelled the street cost to unbelievable prices ,.
I think it is horrifying to see what are government is doing to people with uncontrollable chronic pain.
I couldn’t read past the 1st couple of sentences without wondering WHY you even bother to remain in healthcare . I was a WOMAN serving as 2nd Lieutenant in the US Army for 16 months, a normal tour of duty in Vietnam. It is called covering there own butts because the FDA and DEA have both said those of us with horrible diseases as painful as cancer and yes, they exist, should have access to opiate meds they have been taking and proven can be trusted. Our confusion is this…most of the expainations from the posts of doctors are continually commenting on the all time high level of people dying (still consuming another persons meds) Seeing, with their own eyes these drug dealers on corners and having addicted patients come in needing help with their addiction. Seems all that has changed is the ability of those who struggle in pain everyday with a diagnosed illness to get the help they need. Why don’t you just stop being a doctor if your not willing to help people, I had something similar happen for a broken shoulder. I think it is sad that we have health care professionals who can turn a blind eye and not care that someone is hurting. Nathan: Consider contacting your county health department for the detox resource in your community.

I have come to the conclusion that the doctors and government people responsible for these decisions are motivated purely by sadism.
I have come to the conclusion that, despite any risks, citizens must demand that all opiates be sold freely over the counter. Sir, I can only hope and pray that someday you get to watch the person who is most dear to you suffer for years on end in untreated chronic pain. Was forced into on coming traffic by these monsters, been in painmanagement for almost 10 years now,3 of these doctors have lost ther license,no fault of mine or there’s, just targeted for termination by DEA? Was on the largest dose of fentynyl a human can recieve legally,never asked to go that high thats just where they took me because of the pain scale score I gave when asked on each visit, to me no matter what they give you or I should say I pain is going to be present no matter what. In this video, the instructor shows how to identify the percentage change using proportions. Percent problems, also called as proportion problems, are simple problems where you deal with percentages. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp.
Earlier attempts to quantify this planetary heat imbalance were made in Hansen (2005) and Trenberth (2009) using earlier climate model-based estimates.
Quite obviously then, accurate measurements of ocean warming are crucial to balancing Earth's energy budget. The system began to be rolled out in 2000, and by 2003 made up the majority of ocean heat measurements. It's through this wire which temperature information is transmitted back to a data collection system onboard the ship.
From around 2002-2003, during the transition from XBT to ARGO, global ocean heating seems to decline.
In figure 2(b) are shown the ocean heating rates for the three data sets and their uncertainties. Again this suggests that the scale of the 'slowdown' over that period is simply an artefact of the changeover from one system to the other, and may not be real. But in the abstract (I've not found the paper for free), Loeb et al mention "uncertainties at the 90% confidence level". The energy imbalance shows that more heat will accumulate in the Earth system until radiative balance is restored.
As noted in the two part SkS series NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future, we are on the cusp of rapid warming, which is likely to take place over the next 3-5 years.
In other words, the models mix heat down into the ocean more efficiently than is revealed by real-world observations, yet they do a good job of modeling temperature in the past.
It is probably a dumb question, but I am not a statistician and I have seen discussions where the mid-point of a range is not always statistically the most likely. That would mean that even more GHG warming is being masked by other effects (given that the forcing due to GHG is confirmed by OLR satelite observations, and the CO2 forcing is accepted even by Spencer, Lindzen, Monckton and company). If we know how much more water there is in the 'ponds' courtesy of GRACE's gravity profiles, subtracting sea level rise due to the added water should leave sea level rise due to pure thermal expansion. Taking account of (nearly) all the heat content in the climate system is supposed to avoid the bias of short term surface temperatures. If you do a meta-analysis of more papers on the subject, you get different combined error bars. I think you are confused by the difference between a "constant composition" atmosphere (which has warming in the pipeline), and the case of warming based on past emissions (for which there is no warming in the pipeline). As long as there is an energy imbalance at the TOA, as long as the oceans in particular are in thermal disequilibrium, there is "warming in the pipeline", or as I prefer to term it, unrealized warming.
When the energy content of the climate stops moving, attains long term averaged equilibrium at the top of the atmosphere, then we can state that there is no longer "warming in the pipeline".
The toddlers pool is the surface - land, sea surface, air, ice, they components that contribute to determining radiative balance with space. But the filling of the pools still needs time catch up with the setting the valve is finally at before the water flow eventually stops. And that can't happen until the oceans stop drawing down heat and limiting the surface warming. Most of the greenhouse gas forcing has already been used up in raising sea levels, warming the oceans and atmosphere, and melting ice over the last two centuries. If there is a large committed warming from past emissions, it implies future warming is inevitable. If you can, I encourage you to read the peer-review papers which discuss these concepts at some length.
They are the results of performing these experiments with state-of-the-art earth system models, as you will find in the literature I referred to.
If you look at current literature (such as Archer et al 2009), which show that CO2 drawdown is a combination of several processes, some with geological extent, it's actually tens of thousands of years for the last 25-30% of CO2 to be absorbed.
Calling people with pain, drug seekers because they are asking for help, or knows what works for them is just malpractice! Because a diabetic knows what works for the neuropathy do you throw them in with the bunch? I have the right to have my pain believed by health professionals, family, friends and others around me. You need to work together with your patients to identify and remove these obstacles so that pain can be accurately assessed and treated. I have the right to have my pain controlled, no matter what its cause or how severe it may be. In recent years, major advances have been made in understanding pain and its effective treatment. Failure to aggressively treat pain on a timely basis is now thought to be the main cause of chronic pain. I have the right to have pain resulting from treatments and procedures prevented, or at least minimized. Tell your health care team about the pain associated with any treatments, procedures or tests you may have to undergo. It’s very obvious you no longer want to be bothered by patients or their healthcare needs. I went to forward areas every single day via helicopter to visit troops where entire mountains had just been exfoliated so the grunts could dig into the poisoned red clay to build bunkers to fight from.
I have over 4 years of records saying I never missed pills or had a problem with a drug screen and followed every letter of my contract and for that I get a 2 month notice my doctor is quitting and can’t tell me where to go because no prescribes anymore.
I have not needed chronic administration of opiates for sciatic neuralgia (confirmed by MRI), but on the several occasions that I have needed heavy doses of opiates, including 10 mg percocets, 7.5mg vicoprofen, and even, once, 20 mg oxycontin for several months, I was treated with respect and compassion. Because I had abused drugs 15 years ago and it was on my record, I was prescribed Promethazine, Dramamine, Ibuprofen, and a other slew of crap to help me sleep and for pain.
They don’t actually believe that people in horrific pain are faking it, they just don’t care. It’s the only way to stop demented sociopaths like this doctor and many others from sentencing people to a lifetime of agony. My diagnosis is such that all physicians I have seen do not dispute my complaints of high level pain.
I have 3 scars on my back over 6 inches long and 2 over 3 inches long and I am faking pain just for medications? 57 year old male with two many injuries to name, the final was a drunk inducide attempted vehicular homicide while I was on a touring MC death from heart failure and choking on shatered teeth,shattered back, skull, now all titanium.
I wasn’t drug seeking my history of injury is well documented there can be no dispute to this, never screwed up with a pill count or a toxscreen untill with my final Dr. When a given quantity increases or decreases by certain amount then we can calculate the percentage change in the quantity, which can be either increase or decrease based on the new value of the quantity. Given a percentage problem you may need to identify the percentage, the part or whole quantity from it.
Unlike the ARGO floats, XBT's don't have pressure sensors to measure depth, instead this is calculated by the rate at which the XBT falls. Uncertainties for all annual upper-ocean heating rates are given at one standard error and are derived from OHCA uncertainties.
The period where ARGO data makes up the bulk of data (2004-2008 in red) has a greater uncertainty only because their period of observation is much shorter (5 years), versus 11 years for the interval where XBT data predominates (1993-2003 in blue). But, despite lacking absolute precision, the measuring instruments aboard the satellites are very stable. Uncertainties for upper-ocean heating rates are given at one standard error derived from OHCA uncertainties. Is there in the full content of the paper a reason for this choice of 90% rather than 95% or 99% confidence?
Is it unimportant for the calculation of energy imbalance if we do not take account of 700-1800m for half of the period? This suggests the negative (cooling ) forcing by human-made aerosols (small particles of pollution that reflect sunlight), which have to be specified in the model runs because they cannot be modeled, may in fact be much larger than commonly thought.
The question precisely adressed here is the current energy imbalance in the system, not what it will be in the future nor what it was in the past. Skip the discussion of the meaninglessness of confidence intervals and interpret this interval in its Bayesian sense.
As a thought (or climate modelling) experiment, imagine emissions went to zero tomorrow - would the world keep on warming? Thus the Toddlers pool is able to keep rising somewhat even though it is being retarded by flow into the Olympic pool.

I don't know how useful it is to consider an imaginary scenario where CO2 emissions suddenly drop to zero, but man-made aerosols (reflective particles of pollution that cool the Earth) don't.
Greenhouse gas emissions will not drop to zero, and one has to include the effects of aerosols dropping out of the atmosphere if one wants to realize committed climate. They make pain medication for those who suffer from pain, just like we make penicillin for infections. Not forever I would not wish this kind of life on any one and besides they would no longer be able to function. It is your responsibility to help patients and families understand that fears about addiction, sedation and other side-effects are understandable, but often exaggerated. I cringed reading how little you care, the sad reality is, you just don’t care anymore.
During TET of 1968, I was living with Army nurses in Nah Trang, a beautiful tourist town on the South China Sea.
Mine never took opiates, but, our children are in danger of malnutrition neglect kidnapping etc because we aren’t getting enough medication to get to the bathroom let alone cook dinner. I have a genetic condition called cystinuria its a kidney disease that causes chronic kidney stones that are so hard they have to be pulled out no litho.
How can a so called doctor use not use pain medication when needed, So because a few junkies have tried to pull one over on you, that ruins it for the rest of us who are in legitimate pain!! To solve these kind of situations you should know that the ratio of amount of increase (or decrease) of an amount to its original amount is equal to the ratio of percentage increase (or decrease) to hundred. This calculation is carried out by software embedded in the XBT, and this timestamping of the temperature data is how depth is determined.
These uncertainties in ARGO will diminish as the length of the observational record grows, and indeed a decline in the scale of the annual fluctuation seems be occurring even within the 2004-2008 period.
As this happens the emerging difference in height between the two pools starts a flow into the olympic pool. The amount of heat uptake by the deep ocean almost exactly balances the warming due to the remaining (but disappearing) TOA imbalance. I am so fortunate to have a GP who has retained some humanity and respect for his fellow human beings.
Make sure patients know what to expect when undergoing any procedure, and do everything in your power to prevent or minimize procedure pain. The local army base deserted to the jungle to escape the Viet Cong leaving us hiding under our beds because the Viet Cong were going house to house looking for Americans to drag out into the streets and shoot in the head. It is downright wrong and I believe the suicide rate with far exceed the overdose deaths in the future. Now to compute the percentage increased or decreased substitute the old and new values in the above equation, which gives you the percentage, change in the quantity. Proportion equations says that the ratio of part to the whole is equal to the ratio of percentage to one hundred. TOA radiation anomalies are determined from monthly averages by removing the seasonal cycle then smoothing with a twelve-month running mean.
But IMO this kind of work is still too imprecise to draw conclusion, the 95-99% confidence interval for Loeb et al would be even more large. The ocean would absorb CO2 out the atmosphere, drawing down the radiative forcing over time. Eventually the flow into the toddlers pool will match the flow into large pool and the toddlers pools stops rising while it waits for the olympic pool to fill. Thus the surface does not warm any further; rather surface temperatures remain constant for hunders to thousands of years. That said, he is not comfortable providing me with an ever increasing dose of oxycodone, even though he admits it is far safer for me than the prednisone I take for some of the conditions caused by the poisoning. Finally some Special Forces friends of ours realized that we did not get out and rescued us.
I am up to four surgeries now and also have picked up a new complication reoccurring bladder spasms. For god sake if i’m in pain who the hell are you to tell me my level of pain and what i need. I am 62 years old and have absolutely no history of prescription drug abuse and no use of any drugs for years. It seems to me that there must be a Doctor that knows how to tell if the patient really needs the medication or has a problem.
This video shows how to compute the percentage increase or decrease of a value by using the proportions principle.
Percent equation says that the product of the percentage in the decimal form and the whole gives you the quantity of the part. So we're still in the "travesty" denounced by Trenberth, we know exactly what we would like to quantify very precisely, but we've not the instruments enough precise for this task. The heat from the radiative forcing of the 'excess' CO2 still in the atmosphere is also almost completely absorbed by the ocean. As I said before, of course as long as there is a TOA imbalance the climate system as a whole will warm, but this occurs in the deep ocean, not at the surface.
They took us to a Huah Mong indigenous peoples of Vietnam camp who fought in the jungles with the Special Forces, whom we already knew were going into Laos and Cambodia nightly even then.
My life has become a mess I spend 3 to 4 days a week on average just laying on the couch with my feet propped up unable to complete normal everyday activities.
But instead of serving they’re country for two years like they use to , now we have a bunch of old white people who need to keep making laws to keep there job.
I can only pray there is such a thing as Karma and you and your ilk will suffer the unspeakable terror you have reigned on the very people you took an oath to help.
We were fed and cared for by this Indigenous tribe for almost a month until our command took us back!
Because they have their hands full trying to figure out how they are going to get some damn relief while others are just bitching and moaning because they can’t get their high on! But me 59year old women in pain constant ,they give crap, take new meds weekly praying it will somehow work, but ever does. Even before I left the country I was already getting sick from all of the chemicals exposures including to depleted uranium, daily camp burnoffs of feces, body parts from the field hospital & depleted uranium & ordinance burned in the camp daily poisoning all of us with much more than just Dioxin! The DEA is basically saying we are useless we can not effectively do our jobs so for that reason you must suffer.
Care givers in this state do not allow themselves empathy, so they choose aggressive denial of helpful meds to suspected drug seekers even when their policies cause prolonged suffering. For the past 43 years, until now, I used a 2mg tab daily of Buprenorphine, a weak opioids antagonist that gave me just enough of an energy lift to get me out of bed everyday and brought me a life of value! I wish I could see you in real life face to face so I could share some of that pain with you DOCTOR. Then those same freaking idiots are confused when heroin, meth, crack and other forms of drugs are abused BECAUSE PEOPLE IN PAIN ARE GOING TO LOOK FOR REMEDIES and a DRUG ADDICT IS ALWAYS LOOKING FOR A HIGH!
Steven Simon who triturated the medication to 1 1200mcg every 6 hours, 1 800mcg Fentora every 8 hours and change the valium from 10 mg every 4 hours to 10 mg every 8 hours which very adequately controlled the pain to the point where I was able to tolerate the pain. My poor mother lives in constant pain during her last xray they found that she has 8 bone spurs on her right knee and 5 on her left. The doctor even said looking at this I know it hurts but since you are not a good candidate for surgery I can not give you any pain medications. Iff there is a demand there will be a supply you say it kills people what about alcohol an tabacco? I was a bit appalled at the way she said it, but I told her the roads are horrible, its a snow storm out there and it takes me 45 min on a good day to get home, so I refused to drive all the way home.
I have disk rubbing together and it is horrible that I would cancel my insurance so that I can go across the tracks and spend my money there. Two months after the last surgery they cut me off pain meds and I am hurting like hell right now. Not only that I have NEVER, after 3 attempts and hiring a lawyer received even one cent in compensation from the VA, just like all of the other women nurses and ARC recreation workers who were exposed daily to these poisons unlike the millions of officers with desk jobs in Saigon who have been sitting on their fat asses for years! Prescribe them one pill per day so that they can at least get out of bed and have a chance of some kind of normal life and quit judging. This one drug provided just enough of a lift for my chronic fatigue and aching legs and falling apart feet for over 43 years, now all I take is aspirin and believe me all I think about is SUCIDE! After the life I have had I am more than ready to meet my maker and if whatever that means, I have no qualms about committing suicide, which is probably my only choice out of a bedridden horrible existence that I will not tolerate!
For young people that go just for the pills offer them back surgery and see how fast they run out the door. I worked as a computer programmer, having taught myself when my husband died of cancer at age 50 leaving me with 3 children to educate, which I did all on my own.
I am now unable to find any pain mgment dr who will treat me once I mention that I went to him for 5 yrs., I did therapy, did injections, did all that. I had a severe reaction to the injections so the only way I can be treated is with pharmecuticals and no other dr wants to do that nor have anything to do with me because of this dr. Why do you think the Scandinavion countries & Europe have the highest & cheapest health care systems in the world?

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