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Author: admin, 18.09.2015. Category: Cure Ringing Ears

How The World Is Being Fooled About Chinese Gold DemandKindly note the patternThere is a story being told to the masses about Chinese gold demand that is grossly incorrect. I don't know a lot specifically about the CGA, but I do know that Chinese figures on certain economic issues are as good as fiction.
The amount of fine ounces of gold actually in the jewellery and other articles is hard to determine because you have to subtract manufacturer profit, value of other components (eq diamonds) etc. I wouldn't put too much faith in the domestic production figures in particular since they buy all domestic production the only people who know exactly how much gold they have been producing are the auditers and the people they report to.
Koos is not interested in China's gold exports?He mentions NET imported, that takes into consideration any exports. China launched a crackdown on falsified invoicing in 2013, and in September the currency regulator said it had stamped out the practice after uncovering $10 billion worth of fake trades.
Central banks, as a global over all countries of the world, were and still are (2014 statement) net buyers, and a clear net seller were Gold Exchange Traded Funds.
In the China Gold Association (CGA) Gold Yearbook 2013 it was disclosed China had net imported 1,524 tonnes and domestically mined 428 tonnes. We know China isn't releasing accurate figures on how much gold they have and how much they are buying. Without counting scrap supply this adds up to 1,952 tonnes; adding scrap total supply has been well over 2,000 tonnes. How so no gold leaving China?It's all a matter of choosing terminology and interpretation.
Here is another conspiracy theory - China is deliberately trying to give the Western world the view they as a country (individuals and Govt) are accumulating heaps of gold, more than they actually have. The reason I speculate is because the official story that is presented doesn't make sense to me (just look at export from ROW to China and add mining plus scrap).
I know they see it as insulation but that only works if the world knows you have it to back up whatever moves your making. Before its formation, the official value of diamond imports was about US$1 million annually.
Note however that a large percentage of the Chinese jewellery exports are classified as gold jewellery.
Perhaps they are saving it for the day they really float the yuan.My personal theory is that they will use it to better control over risky deliberate money printing.

The objective is that it allows them to announce a big central bank figure that the market will accept, when in reality they will have less - its a bluff. By 2011, diamond import value had reached over US$5 billion annually, of which around $2 billion was imported solely into mainland China (figure 22). If they feel they need to inflate the yuan to stay competitive  (after a float) and things get a little too crazy they they can just add 500 tons of gold to official reserves and pull things back a bit. They aren't going to let anyone audit it, and you can bet no China cheerleading goldbugs will demand one. The trick is to report a figure as large as possible that is believable, as it gives them a bigger seat at the table.
Two-thirds of Chinese women regard gold jewellery as more of an investment than an adornment. For a few years, I brought all data together, even average futures market positions, and also taking into account an average error correction measured over all years I have data for, and I didn't find mismatches.
There are probably a couple guys trying to talk about it and convince their coworkers that it's important information that should be acted on and that they should be briefing relevant treasury and fed officials but getting nowhere.
Yet in 2013, some 6.6 million Chinese brides were expected to receive gold as part of their wedding ceremony (World Gold Council, 2013).
As you are aware there a huge number of sites, analysts and articles claiming this is true and that it has geopolitical significance and is a reason to buy gold.
Then one day in a few years time that report and those guys are going to be suddenly very important. For silver, I found some quite serious mismatches (ie unexplained gaps, based on the fact, or should-be fact, that every sold ounce requires a bought ounce and vice versa. But as turned out (see another topic here), it was nothing but a blind assumption of what gaps explain. Jensens courtesy in replying and will examine closely what he says in reply in another post as I cannot yet reconcile his reply with what I have so far  read and observed.
Even governments apparently don't report in time if they buy or sell gold, as a recent proof-case of 2013Q1 showed, where a 386 tonnes government purchases was revised to 409 later on (Q2). I don't personally believe there is any deliberate deceit going on with supply and demand figures.
This is one of these unfortunate myths that has become associated with gold buying conspiracy and doom mythology.The Chinese state has for some time being trying to create Chinese consumers who will provide domestic demand.

In the case of jewellery it is exactly the kind of industry targeted under the 5 year plan focusing on moving from low skill mass production to high skill high quality. That is logical, why should the Chinese effect their trade balance by importing EU jewellery to full fill domestic demand when they can have their own luxury goods jewellery industry and also export apparently.The gemstone trade appears to indicate huge Chinese purchasing and investment.
It is quite interesting that Chinese gold production (supposed to be 500-500 tons?) may be overstated. It is hardly surprising that measuring demand in an extremely  fast growing market has inaccuracies.
No mystery, no conspiracy and no radical epic economic event on the horizon that will send gold to the moon either. Although Hong Kong is part of China, it is also a free trade area and in an excellent position to serve as China's export center. Right: Precious metal jewelry and findings is the largest category of jewelry exported from China.
In fact China is a major jewellery exporter into the global market and of precious metal based items.I would like to invite Mr.
Jansen to respond to my post if he is reading as I fully accept I may be making some base error and my contribution is in the spirit of peer review. I would like to know if the figures are based on gold import figures to China ignoring jewellery exports from China?"Plus, China has imported a lot of gold, so it could make references to the gold anchor in ways that are helpful to its aims.
Jansen I find this personally implausible - but perhaps I am merely of limited understanding and need to be corrected. This seems to deliberately confuse the US Governmental holdings and compare it with *all* gold private and state held in China based on possibly spurious figures. It is not a like for like comparison and seems to me misleading.In the instance of the article originally linked to by the first poster, the hypothesis is invalid.
After all some people believe without cause that the US national gold reserve no longer exists because they have not been invited to view it.Further if Chinese domestic gold production is utilised in the Chinese jewellery manufacturing industry a percentage of it may actually be exported yearly.

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