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Author: admin, 29.09.2015. Category: Cure Ringing Ears

We have what may be an extremely difficult problem with an unknown time to solve it, on which quite possibly the entire future of humanity depends.
Part 1 started innocently enough, as we discussed Artificial Narrow Intelligence, or ANI (AI that specializes in one narrow task like coming up with driving routes or playing chess), and how it’s all around us in the world today.
Before we dive into things, let’s remind ourselves what it would mean for a machine to be superintelligent.
A key distinction is the difference between speed superintelligence and quality superintelligence.
That sounds impressive, and ASI would think much faster than any human could—but the true separator would be its advantage in intelligence quality, which is something completely different.
And in the scheme of the intelligence range we’re talking about today, or even the much smaller range among biological creatures, the chimp-to-human quality intelligence gap is tiny. To absorb how big a deal a superintelligent machine would be, imagine one on the dark green step two steps above humans on that staircase. But the kind of superintelligence we’re talking about today is something far beyond anything on this staircase.
Evolution has advanced the biological brain slowly and gradually over hundreds of millions of years, and in that sense, if humans birth an ASI machine, we’ll be dramatically stomping on evolution.
Well no one in the world, especially not I, can tell you what will happen when we hit the tripwire. 1) The advent of ASI will, for the first time, open up the possibility for a species to land on the immortality side of the balance beam. 2) The advent of ASI will make such an unimaginably dramatic impact that it’s likely to knock the human race off the beam, in one direction or the other.
It may very well be that when evolution hits the tripwire, it permanently ends humans’ relationship with the beam and creates a new world, with or without humans.
Kind of seems like the only question any human should currently be asking is: When are we going to hit the tripwire and which side of the beam will we land on when that happens? No one in the world knows the answer to either part of that question, but a lot of the very smartest people have put decades of thought into it. Let’s start with the first part of the question: When are we going to hit the tripwire?
Not shockingly, opinions vary wildly and this is a heated debate among scientists and thinkers. Those people subscribe to the belief that this is happening soon—that exponential growth is at work and machine learning, though only slowly creeping up on us now, will blow right past us within the next few decades. Others, like Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, research psychologist Gary Marcus, NYU computer scientist Ernest Davis, and tech entrepreneur Mitch Kapor, believe that thinkers like Kurzweil are vastly underestimating the magnitude of the challenge and believe that we’re not actually that close to the tripwire. The doubters might argue back that the progress needed to make advancements in intelligence also grows exponentially harder with each subsequent step, which will cancel out the typical exponential nature of technological progress. A separate study, conducted recently by author James Barrat at Ben Goertzel’s annual AGI Conference, did away with percentages and simply asked when participants thought AGI would be achieved—by 2030, by 2050, by 2100, after 2100, or never. The median answer put a rapid (2 year) AGI > ASI transition at only a 10% likelihood, but a longer transition of 30 years or less at a 75% likelihood. Of course, all of the above statistics are speculative, and they’re only representative of the center opinion of the AI expert community, but it tells us that a large portion of the people who know the most about this topic would agree that 2060 is a very reasonable estimate for the arrival of potentially world-altering ASI. Okay now how about the second part of the question above: When we hit the tripwire, which side of the beam will we fall to?
The answer to this will determine whether ASI is an unbelievably great development, an unfathomably terrible development, or something in between. Of course, the expert community is again all over the board and in a heated debate about the answer to this question. As mentioned in Part 1, movies have really confused things by presenting unrealistic AI scenarios that make us feel like AI isn’t something to be taken seriously in general. Due to something called cognitive biases, we have a hard time believing something is real until we see proof. Even if we did believe it—how many times today have you thought about the fact that you’ll spend most of the rest of eternity not existing?
One of the goals of these two posts is to get you out of the I Like to Think About Other Things Camp and into one of the expert camps, even if you’re just standing on the intersection of the two dotted lines in the square above, totally uncertain. As an oracle, which answers nearly any question posed to it with accuracy, including complex questions that humans cannot easily answer—i.e. As a genie, which executes any high-level command it’s given—Use a molecular assembler to build a new and more efficient kind of car engine—and then awaits its next command. As a sovereign, which is assigned a broad and open-ended pursuit and allowed to operate in the world freely, making its own decisions about how best to proceed—Invent a faster, cheaper, and safer way than cars for humans to privately transport themselves. There are no hard problems, only problems that are hard to a certain level of intelligence. There are a lot of eager scientists, inventors, and entrepreneurs in Confident Corner—but for a tour of brightest side of the AI horizon, there’s only one person we want as our tour guide. Kurzweil believes computers will reach AGI by 2029 and that by 2045, we’ll have not only ASI, but a full-blown new world—a time he calls the singularity. Kurzweil’s depiction of the 2045 singularity is brought about by three simultaneous revolutions in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and, most powerfully, AI.
Nanotechnology is our word for technology that deals with the manipulation of matter that’s between 1 and 100 nanometers in size. To understand the challenge of humans trying to manipulate matter in that range, let’s take the same thing on a larger scale. Nanotech was first discussed by Richard Feynman in a 1959 talk, when he explained: “The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do not speak against the possibility of maneuvering things atom by atom. Nanotech became a serious field for the first time in 1986, when engineer Eric Drexler provided its foundations in his seminal book Engines of Creation, but Drexler suggests that those looking to learn about the most modern ideas in nanotechnology would be best off reading his 2013 book, Radical Abundance. Anyway, I brought you here because there’s this really unfunny part of nanotechnology lore I need to tell you about.
An even worse scenario—if a terrorist somehow got his hands on nanobot technology and had the know-how to program them, he could make an initial few trillion of them and program them to quietly spend a few weeks spreading themselves evenly around the world undetected. Once we really get nanotech down, we can use it to make tech devices, clothing, food, a variety of bio-related products—artificial blood cells, tiny virus or cancer-cell destroyers, muscle tissue, etc.—anything really. Just considering the possibilities if a superintelligent computer had access to a robust nanoscale assembler is intense. Armed with superintelligence and all the technology superintelligence would know how to create, ASI would likely be able to solve every problem in humanity. A few months ago, I mentioned my envy of more advanced potential civilizations who had conquered their own mortality, never considering that I might later write a post that genuinely made me believe that this is something humans could do within my lifetime. It is one of the most remarkable things that in all of the biological sciences there is no clue as to the necessity of death. Kurzweil talks about intelligent wifi-connected nanobots in the bloodstream who could perform countless tasks for human health, including routinely repairing or replacing worn down cells in any part of the body.


You will not be surprised to learn that Kurzweil’s ideas have attracted significant criticism. It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. The most prominent criticism I heard of the thinkers on Confident Corner is that they may be dangerously wrong in their assessment of the downside when it comes to ASI. But if that’s the answer, why are so many of the world’s smartest people so worried right now? Meanwhile, Indiana Jones, who’s much more knowledgeable and prudent, understanding the dangers and how to navigate around them, makes it out of the cave safely. Well first, in a broad sense, when it comes to developing supersmart AI, we’re creating something that will probably change everything, but in totally uncharted territory, and we have no idea what will happen when we get there.
When you're a family member coping with the hearing loss of a loved one, you may encounter frustration, the feeling of being ignored, separation from the relationship and isolation from daily family life. When a family member has a hearing loss, treated or untreated, the loss impacts the entire family and communication skills are put to the test.
DiMarco uses the universal language of dance to change the hearing world’s perception of what it means to be Deaf – and he just might win the Mirrorball trophy in the process. Your ears transmit sound waves to the brain, and having an ear on each side of the head makes it easier for us to determine where the sound is coming from.
Two ears offer a bit of cushion because the sounds are divided between two ears, and this makes it possible to tolerate louder noises. The ability to clearly hear out of two ears is important for day-to-day functions and peace of mind.
In his world, anything that huge is part of nature, period, and not only is it beyond him to build a skyscraper, it’s beyond him to realize that anyone can build a skyscraper.
This machine would be only slightly superintelligent, but its increased cognitive ability over us would be as vast as the chimp-human gap we just described. But Oxford philosopher and lead AI thinker Nick Bostrom believes we can boil down all potential outcomes into two broad categories. Bostrom believes species immortality is just as much of an attractor state as species extinction, i.e.
The 90% median answer of 2075 means that if you’re a teenager right now, the median respondent, along with over half of the group of AI experts, is almost certain AGI will happen within your lifetime. In Barrat’s survey, over two thirds of participants believe AGI will be here by 2050 and a little less than half predict AGI within the next 15 years.
So the median opinion—the one right in the center of the world of AI experts—believes the most realistic guess for when we’ll hit the ASI tripwire is [the 2040 prediction for AGI + our estimated prediction of a 20-year transition from AGI to ASI] = 2060. Muller and Bostrom’s survey asked participants to assign a probability to the possible impacts AGI would have on humanity and found that the mean response was that there was a 52% chance that the outcome will be either good or extremely good and a 31% chance the outcome will be either bad or extremely bad.
Actually I know what your deal is, because it was my deal too before I started researching this topic.
Critics believe it comes from an excitement so blinding that they simply ignore or deny potential negative outcomes.
If you had shown a hunter-gatherer our world of indoor comfort, technology, and endless abundance, it would have seemed like fictional magic to him—we have to be humble enough to acknowledge that it’s possible that an equally inconceivable transformation could be in our future.
In my reading, I heard everything from godlike worship of him and his ideas to eye-rolling contempt for them. He began inventing things as a teenager and in the following decades, he came up with several breakthrough inventions, including the first flatbed scanner, the first scanner that converted text to speech (allowing the blind to read standard texts), the well-known Kurzweil music synthesizer (the first true electric piano), and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.
His AI-related timeline used to be seen as outrageously overzealous, and it still is by many,6 but in the last 15 years, the rapid advances of ANI systems have brought the larger world of AI experts much closer to Kurzweil’s timeline.
A nanometer is a billionth of a meter, or a millionth of a millimeter, and this 1-100 range encompasses viruses (100 nm across), DNA (10 nm wide), and things as small as large molecules like hemoglobin (5 nm) and medium molecules like glucose (1 nm).
It would be, in principle, possible … for a physicist to synthesize any chemical substance that the chemist writes down….
In older versions of nanotech theory, a proposed method of nanoassembly involved the creation of trillions of tiny nanobots that would work in conjunction to build something.
The issue is that the same power of exponential growth that makes it super convenient to quickly create a trillion nanobots makes self-replication a terrifying prospect. And in a world that uses nanotechnology, the cost of a material is no longer tied to its scarcity or the difficulty of its manufacturing process, but instead determined by how complicated its atomic structure is.
But nanotechnology is something we came up with, that we’re on the verge of conquering, and since anything that we can do is a joke to an ASI system, we have to assume ASI would come up with technologies much more powerful and far too advanced for human brains to understand.
But reading about AI will make you reconsider everything you thought you were sure about—including your notion of death.
We think of aging like time—both keep moving and there’s nothing you can do to stop them. If you say we want to make perpetual motion, we have discovered enough laws as we studied physics to see that it is either absolutely impossible or else the laws are wrong.
If perfected, this process (or a far smarter one ASI would come up with) wouldn’t just keep the body healthy, it could reverse aging. He believes that artificial materials will be integrated into the body more and more as time goes on. Humans have separated sex from its purpose, allowing people to have sex for fun, not just for reproduction. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Kurzweil’s famous book The Singularity is Near is over 700 pages long and he dedicates around 20 of those pages to potential dangers.
All the movies about evil robots seemed fully unrealistic, and I couldn’t really understand how there could be a real-life situation where AI was actually dangerous. The body is a finely tuned "machine," and our ears are designed to pick up sound waves from our surroundings. Sometimes referred to as localization, having two ears allows you to understand where someone is if he is talking to you in a social setting, where construction is, or who is honking his horn. If you have to struggle to hear people talking around you, chances are you will not be very relaxed in these environments.
In the event you're experiencing difficulty hearing clearly, visit a hearing healthcare professional in your area to address your concerns! And like the chimp’s incapacity to ever absorb that skyscrapers can be built, we will never be able to even comprehend the things a machine on the dark green step can do, even if the machine tried to explain it to us—let alone do it ourselves. Bostrom calls extinction an attractor state—a place species are all teetering on falling into and from which no species ever returns. Also striking is that only 2% of those surveyed don’t think AGI is part of our future. This is partially because computers just couldn’t do stuff like that in 1988, so people would look at their computer and think, “Really?


Even though it’s a far more intense fact than anything else you’re doing today?
But the believers say it’s naive to conjure up doomsday scenarios when on balance, technology has and will likely end up continuing to help us a lot more than it hurts us. His predictions are still a bit more ambitious than the median respondent on Muller and Bostrom’s survey (AGI by 2040, ASI by 2060), but not by that much.
If humans were giants so large their heads reached up to the ISS, they’d be about 250,000 times bigger than they are now.
One way to create trillions of nanobots would be to make one that could self-replicate and then let the reproduction process turn that one into two, those two then turn into four, four into eight, and in about a day, there’d be a few trillion of them ready to go.
Because what if the system glitches, and instead of stopping replication once the total hits a few trillion as expected, they just keep replicating?
ASI could first halt CO2 emissions by coming up with much better ways to generate energy that had nothing to do with fossil fuels. First, organs could be replaced by super-advanced machine versions that would run forever and never fail.
For every expert who fervently believes Kurzweil is right on, there are probably three who think he’s way off. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. I suggested earlier that our fate when this colossal new power is born rides on who will control that power and what their motivation will be.
Robots are made by us, so why would we design them in a way where something negative could ever happen?
If you've ever had hearing loss in one ear, you know that it can be challenging to decipher noise, or understand where it came from. Just for starters, hearing properly from only one side of the body limits the amount of sound that you could hear clearly from the other side. There are worlds of human cognitive function a chimp will simply never be capable of, no matter how much time he spends trying.
So even though all species so far have fallen off the balance beam and landed on extinction, Bostrom believes there are two sides to the beam and it’s just that nothing on Earth has been intelligent enough yet to figure out how to fall off on the other side. In other words, the people who know the most about this are pretty sure this will be a huge deal. This is because our brains are normally focused on the little things in day-to-day life, no matter how crazy a long-term situation we’re a part of. The nanobots would be designed to consume any carbon-based material in order to feed the replication process, and unpleasantly, all life is carbon-based.
Most likely, our brains aren’t even capable of predicting the things that would happen.
Then it could create some innovative way to begin to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere.
This suggests to me that it is not at all inevitable and that it is only a matter of time before the biologists discover what it is that is causing us the trouble and that this terrible universal disease or temporariness of the human’s body will be cured.
Then he believes we could begin to redesign the body—things like replacing red blood cells with perfected red blood cell nanobots who could power their own movement, eliminating the need for a heart at all. Nanobots will be in charge of delivering perfect nutrition to the cells of the body, intelligently directing anything unhealthy to pass through the body without affecting anything. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals. Kurzweil neatly answers both parts of this question with the sentence, “[ASI] is emerging from many diverse efforts and will be deeply integrated into our civilization’s infrastructure. Individuals with hearing aids may also notice a difference if they are only wearing one device.
A machine on the second-to-highest step on that staircase would be to us as we are to ants—it could try for years to teach us the simplest inkling of what it knows and the endeavor would be hopeless.
It’s also worth noting that those numbers refer to the advent of AGI—if the question were about ASI, I imagine that the neutral percentage would be even lower.
So nanotechnology is the equivalent of a human giant as tall as the ISS figuring out how to carefully build intricate objects using materials between the size of a grain of sand and an eyeball.
If you can figure out how to move individual molecules or atoms around, you can make literally anything. A 90-year-old suffering from dementia could head into the age refresher and come out sharp as a tack and ready to start a whole new career.
He even gets to the brain and believes we’ll enhance our brain activities to the point where humans will be able to think billions of times faster than they do now and access outside information because the artificial additions to the brain will be able to communicate with all the info in the cloud. Couldn’t we just cut off an AI system’s power supply at any time and shut it down? Monaural hearing, one ear, creates an unusual feeling because the brain is not stimulated equally.
A nanobot would consist of about 106 carbon atoms, so 1039 nanobots would consume all life on Earth, which would happen in 130 replications (2130 is about 1039), as oceans of nanobots (that’s the gray goo) rolled around the planet.
If you perfectly repaired or replaced a car’s parts whenever one of them began to wear down, the car would run forever. This seems absurd—but the body is just a bunch of atoms and ASI would presumably be able to easily manipulate all kinds of atomic structures—so it’s not absurd. And those biases are what experts are up against as they frantically try to get our attention through the noise of collective daily self-absorption. Scientists think a nanobot could replicate in about 100 seconds, meaning this simple mistake would inconveniently end all life on Earth in 3.5 hours. Freitas has already designed blood cell replacements that, if one day implemented in the body, would allow a human to sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath—so you can only imagine what ASI could do for our physical capabilities. ASI could use things like nanotech to build meat from scratch that would be molecularly identical to real meat—in other words, it would be real meat. Virtual reality would take on a new meaning—nanobots in the body could suppress the inputs coming from our senses and replace them with new signals that would put us entirely in a new environment, one that we’d see, hear, feel, and smell. Nanotech could turn a pile of garbage into a huge vat of fresh meat or other food (which wouldn’t have to have its normal shape—picture a giant cube of apple)—and distribute all this food around the world using ultra-advanced transportation.
Of course, this would also be great for animals, who wouldn’t have to get killed by humans much anymore, and ASI could do lots of other things to save endangered species or even bring back extinct species through work with preserved DNA. ASI could even solve our most complex macro issues—our debates over how economies should be run and how world trade is best facilitated, even our haziest grapplings in philosophy or ethics—would all be painfully obvious to ASI.



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