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The analysis of the different types - as well as the different sources of energy is becoming increasingly important due to the aim to gain a perfect energy mix.
While analyzing the historical development of electricity supply and demand the increasing importance of electricity in our modern society will be pointed up.
During the 1820s and 1830s the basic principle of electricity generation was discovered by Michael Faraday. For the production of electricity different fuels such as Bio-, Hydro-, Nuclear- or Fossil fuels are used. A steady growth in electricity generation up to 2008 can be derived from figure 3 in Asia including China, OECD, Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Figure 4 illustrates the percentage share of electricity generation by region in the world.
The first table of figure 5 shows the producers top 10 producers of electricity in the world.
While comparing total net exports and total net imports it is found that net imports are slightly higher.
Comparing the first and third table of figure 5 it can be derived that the US and India are importing electricity although they are in the top 10 of the world’s producers of energy. Electricity out of oil is mostly produced by countries where lots of oil is found such as Saudi Arabia, The US and the Russian Federation.
The United States are clearly leading in the total electricity production out of natural gas followed by the Russian Federation and Japan.
Includes agriculture, commercial and public services, residential, and non-specified other. Figure 8 shows the relative percentage share of total final electricity consumption by sector in 1973 and 2009.
Figure 9 shows the share of different energy sources for final energy consumption and in particular the specific share of different renewable energies.
Figure 10 illustrates the share of global electricity production from different sources of energy.
The percentage share of nuclear energy consumption is lower than nuclear electricity production.
Furthermore from figures 9 and 10 it can be derived that renewable energies have nearly the same percentage share for electricity production and energy consumption. Figures 11 and 12 both show an upward trend with a similar slope for the relative contribution of electricity to total final energy consumption and per capita electricity consumption.
The electricity intensity of economic activity decreases in figure 13 between 1988 and 1992.
CO2 emissions per electricity and heat output decreased strongly in Germany between 1973 and 2009.
In conclusion the importance of electricity in the energy mix is increasing in the whole world. Furthermore also the mix of energy sources which are used for the production of electricity was changing a lot within the last 30 years. To sum up electricity used by humans changed a lot in the last years and will most probably still change in the future. World energy use continues to increase steadily in the Reference Scenario, but at a slower rate than projected in WEO-2007 report, mainly due to higher energy prices and slower economic growth. Required information is not filled in: Information about the starting date of the publishing schedule is missing. Total energy consumption disaggregated by fuel type is a driving force indicator describing the development of energy sources and the corresponding levels of consumption. Total primary energy consumption (supply) or gross inland energy consumption is calculated as the sum of the gross inland consumption of energy from solid fuels, oil, gas, nuclear and renewable sources. The development and running of the WEM requires access to huge quantities of historical data on economic and energy variables.
In common with all attempts to describe future market trends, the energy projections presented in the Outlook are subject to a wide range of uncertainties energy markets could evolve in ways that are much different from either the Reference Scenario or the Alternative Policy Scenario. Different types of energy exist such as gravitational, chemical, electrical and mechanical energy.
Overall the electricity generation increased from 1971 until 2008 from about 4500TWh to about 20000TWh. By comparing the data in 1973 with the data in 2009 in can be found that the importance of oil decreased sharply contrary to the other fuels for the generation of electricity.
In 2009 developing countries were not that much affected by the economic downturn and thus did not have a declining rate in electricity generation such as the OECD and Non-OECD Europe. The US is producing the highest percentage of electricity (20,8%) directly followed by China (18,4%) in the world. However total net exports should equal total net imports within the whole world it the statistics were exact. Overall total final consumption in the different sectors has increased from less than 400 million tons to more than 1400 million tons. It shows that the percentage share in electricity consumption by industry has decreased from more than 50% to about 40% although total final consumption of the industry sector doubled as seen in figure 7. Fossil fuels had the highest percentage share in global electricity production in 2008 with 69%.
However figure 9 refers to the consumption of energy and figure 10 refers to the actual production of electricity. The author thinks that this is mostly due to the importance of nuclear energy for electricity.
However hydropower is far more important for electricity production than for energy consumption. In the following different electricity indicators will be evaluated and compared for specific regions (world and OECD Europe) and countries (Greece and Germany). This implies that electricity has become more important in the energy mix and that consumption of electricity per person went up in the world as well as in OECD Europe. Germany and Greece have both an upward trend in per capita electricity consumption and relative contribution of electricity to total final energy consumption.
The author thinks that this is mainly because of the smaller size of the economies analyzed. The production and consumption is dependent on many other factors such as GDP, population and total energy consumption. Other contributing factors are policy changes such as for example the US Energy Independence and Security Act, which mandates vehicle fuel economy improvements.
Due to strong economic growth, China and India account for 51% of incremental world primary energy demand in 2006-2030.
It is also called Total primary energy supply or Gross inland energy consumption and represents the quantity of all energy necessary to satisfy inland consumption.
Therefore, the share of each fuel in total energy consumption is measured in absolute value, but presented in the form of a percentage.
WSSD, 2002 aims to achieve a sustainable energy future, including diversified energy sources using cleaner technologies. The relative contribution of a specific fuel is the ratio between the energy consumption originating from that specific fuel and the total gross inland energy consumption.
Most of the data are obtained from the IEA's own databases of energy and economics statistics. The reliability or WEM projections depends both on how well the model represents reality and on the validity of the assumptions it works under.


The statistics of IEA which provide a major input to the WEO, cover 130 countries worldwide. Those types of energy indirectly relate to the actual production of energy with the help of different sources of energy such as wind energy, solar energy and hydrogen energy. Furthermore it shows that OECD-Europe’s percentage share in the total world electricity generation decreases sharply from about 75% to about 50%.
The strongest total growth of total final electricity consumption occurred in agriculture, commercial and public services, residential and non-specified others which are summarized by “other” in the graph.
The percentage share of renewables in the world’s energy consumption amounts to 19% including mostly traditional biomass (13%) and Hydropower (3.2%). However nuclear energy had relatively high energy losses in 2008 amounting to 67%.[19] This leads to a higher difference between supply and consumption as well. The percentage share of hydropower for electricity production is nearly five times higher than the percentage share of hydropower for energy consumption. The author thinks that this is due to the strong government incentives in OECD Europe to lower CO2 emissions. However Greece has a much steeper upward trend in per capita electricity consumption than Germany. In Greece the electricity supply self-sufficiency rate decreased slightly between 1982 and 1986 as well as between 2001 and 2009.
Contrary in Greece the electricity intensity of economic activity ratio increased between 1973 and 2001 and stayed constant thereafter till 2009. Developing countries increased their percentage share of electricity production massively in the world. Of the global increase in oil demand 43% comes from China, 20% from the Middle East and 19% from India. The consumption of fossil fuels (such as crude oil, oil products, hard coal, lignite and natural and derived gas) provides a proxy indicator of resource depletion, CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution levels (e.g. Moreover, there is a number of sub-negotiations and declarations concerning more sustainable ratio in balance between a global energy supply and consumption of different energy types.
A significant amount of additional data from a wide range of external sources is also used.
Furthermore electricity indicators of different regions and countries will be analyzed and compared.
The trend of the electricity generation is related to the trend of overall energy supply.[8] In total fossil thermal fuels were the most important source for electricity generation from 1971 to 2009. Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia percentage share in 2009 was only half of its initial share in 1973.
Germany and France are the only European courtiers ranked in the top 10 of electricity production. Therefore coal and peat are still the most important fossil fuels when it comes to the total production of electricity in the world.
Hydropower (15%) and other renewables (non-hydro) (3%) are crucial for the world’s electricity production as well. Firstly the percentage share of production does not equal the percentage share of consumption as the spread between production and consumption for different energy sources differs.
The percentage share of fossil fuels for electricity production is 8% lower than the percentage share for energy consumption. This is caused by an increase in total electricity consumed.[25] Also per capita electricity consumption and relative contribution of electricity to total final energy consumption both have different upward slopes. This implies that the Greece electricity consumption increased more than the GDP of Greece.
The author thinks that this trend will still last at least for the next 30 years as electricity is crucial for the development of countries. The parameters of the demand-side modules' equations are estimated econometrically, usually using data fro the period 19971-2002. Recently, however, maintaining the very high caliber of IEA statistics has become increasingly difficult, in many cases because national administrations have faced growing problems in maintaining the quality of their own statistics. Contrary Latin Americas percentage in electricity generated has doubled and China’s percentage share has even increased my more than 6 times since 1973. Energy production is distributed unequally between countries in 2009 as two third of the total electricity production is achieved by only 10 countries. Total final electricity consumption of the transport sector increased slightly from 1971 till 2009 but is still a lot smaller than total consumption by “others*” or the industry. Secondly the percentage share in energy sources used for electricity and energy overall differ. As a result, their share in primary energy demand rises from 51% to 62%.In 2030, disparities in per capita energy consumption among regions remain stark. The degree of the environmental impact depends on the relative share of different fossil fuels and the extent to which pollution abatement measures are used. Kiev Declaration " Environment for Europe" (2003) aims at supporting further efforts to promote renewable energy supply to meet environmental objectives.
The share of each fuel in total energy consumption is presented in the form of a percentage.
Shorter periods are sometimes used where data are unavailable or significant structural breaks are identified.
Middle East countries see a rapid increase in per-capita energy demand over the Outlook period, Russia still has the highest per-capita energy consumption, at 7.0 toe, in 2030. Natural gas, for instance, has approximately 40 % less carbon content than coal and 25 % less carbon content than oil and contains only marginal quantities of sulphur. EU policy context Total energy consumption disaggregated by fuel type provides an indication of the extent of environmental pressure caused (or at risk of being caused) by energy production and consumption. To tae into account expected changes in structure, policy or technology, adjustments to these parameters are sometimes made over the Outlook period, using econometric and other modeling techniques.
The level of nuclear energy consumption provides an indication of the trends in the amount of nuclear waste generated and of the risks associated with radioactive leaks and accidents.
The relative shares of fossil fuels, nuclear power and renewable energies together with the total amount of energy consumption are valuable in determining the overall environmental burden of energy consumption in the EU. The projections are made with the use of the World Energy Model 2004 developed by Internation Energy Agency.
In regions such as transition economies, where most data are available only from 1992, it has not been possible to use econometric estimations. Increasing consumption of nuclear energy at the expense of fossil fuels would on the other hand contribute to reductions in CO2 emissions. In such cases, IEA results have been prepared using assumptions based on cross-country analyses or expert judgment.
Renewable energy consumption is a measure of the contribution from technologies that are more environmentally benign, as they produce no (or very little) net CO2 and usually significantly lower levels of other pollutants. The incineration of municipal waste is generally made up of both renewable and non-renewable material and may also generate local air pollution.
The main exogenous assumptions concern economic growth, demographics, international fossil fuel prices and technological developments. This is particularly useful in the adjustment process and in sensitivity analyses of specific factors.
However, emissions from the incineration of waste are subject to stringent regulations including tight controls on quantities of cadmium, mercury and other such substances. With these goals in mind, each Member State will by June 30th 2010 submit a National Renewable Energy Action Plan to the Commission.


The WEM makes use of wide range of software, including specific database management tools, econometric software and simulation programmes. Similarly, the inclusion of both large and small-scale hydropower provides only a broad indicator of environmentally benign energy supply.
Also electricity consumption and electricity prices dynamically link the final energy demand and power generation modules. While small-scale hydro schemes generally have little environmental impact, large-scale hydro can have major adverse impacts (flooding, impact on ecosystems, water levels, requirements for population resettlement).
Then regional energy balance which includes the total primary energy consumption was calculated. Description of the Modules Final Energy Demand The OECD and non-OECD regions have been modelled in the following sectoral and end-use detail: Industry which is separated into six sub-sectors. It is possible that hydrogen-based energy systems and carbon-sequestration technologies, which are now under development, could dramatically reduce carbon emissions associated with energy use.
More detail description of the module can be found in the methodology of the Final Energy consumption by sectors. But these technologies are still a long way from ready to be commercialized on a large scale, and it is always difficult to predict when a technological breakthrough might occur. Electricity generation is calculated using the demand for electricity and taking into account electricity used by power plants themselves and system losses. New generating capacity is the difference between total capacity requirements and plant retirements using assumed plant lives. Fossil fuel prices and efficiencies are used to rank plants in ascending order of their short-run marginal operating costs, allowing for assumed plant availability. The marginal generation cost of the system is calculated, and this cost is then fed back to the demand model to determine the final electricity price.
Renewable module The projections of renewable electricity generation were derived in a separate model.
It has been assessed the future deployment of renewable energies for electricity generation and the investment needed for such deployment.
For a detail description of this model - developed by Energy Economics Group (EEG) at Vienna University of Technology in co-operation with Wiener Zentrum fur Energie, Umwelt und Klima - see Resch et al. The development of renewables is based on an assessment of potentials and costs for each source (biomass, hydro, photovoltaics, solar thermal electricity, geothermal electricity, on- and offshore wind, tidal and wave). OPEC conventional oil production is assumed to fill the gap between non-OPEC production and non-conventional and total world oil demand. The derivation of non-OPEC production of conventional oil uses a combination of two different approaches.
Along-term approach involves the determination of production according to the level of ultimately recoverable resources and a depletion rate estimated by using historical data. In particular, Europe gas market, whereas oil is modelled as a single international market. Once gas production from each net-importing region is estimated, taking into account ultimately recoverable resources and depletion rates, the remaining regional demand is derived and then allocated to the net-exporting regions, again according to recoverable resources and depletion rates.
Production in the net-exporting regions is consequently calculated from their owm demand projections and export needs.
Coal module The coal module is a combination of a resources approach and an assessment of the development of domestic and international markets, based on the international coal price. Production, imports and exports are based on coal demand projections, and historical data on a country basis.
Investment on the demand side WEM energy consumption, end-use prices and income are used as an input to the calculations for the investments on the demand side.
These estimates are mostly based on a co-operative effort between the Argonne Laboratory in the United States and the IEA. Projections of investment needs in the fuel supply chain are based on the methodology reported in the World Energy Investment Outlook 2003.
Key model assumptions for the reference case The central projections derived from a Reference Scenario.
Major new energy policy initiatives will inevitably be implemented during the projection period, but it is difficult to predict which measures will eventually be adopted and how they will be implemented, especially towards the end of the projection period. Although the Reference Scenario assumes that there will be no change in energy and environmental policies through the projection period, the pace of implementation those policies and the way they are implemented in practice are nonetheless assumed to vary by the fuel and region. For example electricity and gas market reforms are assumed to move ahead, but at varying speeds among countries and regions. In all cases, the share of taxes in energy process is assumed to remain unchanged, so that retail process are assumed to change directly in proportion to international prices.
Similarly, it is assumed that there will be no changes in national policies on nuclear power. As a result, nuclear energy will remain an option for power generation only in those countries that have not officially banned it or decided to phase it out. The WEO population growth rate assumptions are drawn from the most recent UN populations' projections contained in World population Prospects: the 2002 Revision. The assumed price paths assumed in the table presented below should not be interpreted as forecasts. Rater, they reflect IEA judgment of the prices that will be needed to encourage sufficient investment in supply to meet projected demand over the Outlook period. In general, it is assumed that available end-use technologies become steadily in use and the overall intensity of energy consumption will depend heavily on the rate of retirement and replacement of the stock of capital. Since the energy-using capital stock in use today will be replaced only gradually, most of the impact of technological developments that improve energy efficiency will not be felt until near the end of the projection period.
Most cars and trucks, heating and cooling systems and industrial boilers will be replaced by 2030.
The very long life of this type of energy-capital stock will limit the extent to which technological progress can alter the amount of energy needed to provide a particular energy service.
Retiring these assets before the end of their normal lives is usually costly and would, in most cases, require major new governmental initiatives - beyond those assumed in the Reference Scenario.
Refurbishment can, however, achieve worthwhile improvements in energy efficiency in some cases. Technological developments will also affect the costs of energy supply and the availability of new ways of producing and delivering energy services. Power generation efficiencies are assumed to improve over the projection period, but at different rates for different technologies. Towards the end of the projection period, fuel cells based on hydrogen are expected o become economically attractive in some power generation applications ad, to a much smaller extent, also expected to improve, lowering the unit production costs and opening up new opportunities for developing resources. But the Reference Scenario assumes that no new breakthrough technologies beyond those known today will be used before 2030. The World Alternative Scenario WEO also considers Alternative policy Scenario to analyze how the global energy market could evolve were countries around the world to adopt a set of policies and measures that they are either currently considering or might reasonably be expected to implement over the projection period.
The purpose of this scenario is to provide insights into how effective those policies might be in addressing environmental and energy-security concerns.



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