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The growth in government debt occurs because of a mismatch between income and expenditures. If wages are low, the temptation is for governments to try to create more “spendable income” by increasing debt. Ultimately (which may not be very long from now), the debt system appears likely to collapse. One thing readers may have not thought about is that it is the increase in debt that adds to a person’s (or company’s) spendable income.
If we add the increase in household debt (mortgages, credit cards, student loans, car loans, etc.) to wages, this is the pattern we see historically. The pattern is very much what we would expect, given what we know about recent debt patterns. Strangely enough, wages excluding governmental wages have been falling as a percentage of GDP during the same period.
While there are too many variables to make this comparison exact, it does indicate that the increases in debt levels are of the right order of magnitude to explain what would otherwise be a very strange anomaly. I might mention, too, that part of the reason that Personal Consumption Expenditures can be rising as a percentage of GDP is the fact that investment has been falling, as businesses move their manufacturing offshore, and as other changes take place. Even if all debt limits were to do is erase the beneficial impact of debt increases, based on Figure 8, it appears that spendable income (or Personal Consumption Expenditures) would decrease by about 23%, to bring it back to might be expected based on wages.
In fact, reaching debt limits is likely be a messy affair, with some type of change (such as increasing rising interest rates as QE fails, or the US dollar losing its reserve currency status, or huge changes in the Eurozone) leading to changes that affect governments and currencies around the world.
In our current circumstances, we are reaching debt limits because of a specific resource limit — lack of inexpensive oil. The situation of reaching debt limits because of resource limits is a worrisome one, because it is hard to see a way to fix the situation.
The thing that is striking about Figure 4 is that a similar pattern occurs in the 1973 to 1983 period as the 2002 to 2012 period.
The effects outlined above can be mitigated to some extent by changes such as moving closer to work and more fuel efficient cars. The high price oil situation was mostly resolved in the early 1980s, because other relatively inexpensive oil was available to drill, bringing the price down again.
Gail TverbergGail Tverberg is a casualty actuary whose prior work involved forecasting and modeling in the insurance industry. Of course, you have omitted some issues that are connected to peak oil and promise to make any solution that might allow us to live and grow as usual IMPOSSIBLE, but I suspect that you already know that. Those East Asian economies have matured, but their highly-productive workers are paid less than in Europe, the US and Japan.
The Government Sector (all levels) gross domestic product has grown relative to the Private Sector GDP in the past few decades.
The Government Sector is less efficient (uses more resources to do a job) than the Private Sector which acts as a drag on Private Sector growth.
The US should maximize its low-cost, low-CO2-emitting, domestic, natural gas consumption, to offset expensive imported oil, and to gain a RELATIVE advantage over other economies. The US should maximize energy efficiency, such as net-zero-energy buildings, high-mileage light vehicles) to minimize expensive resource consumption. For the US, because of plentiful natural gas, expensive RE build-outs are several decades premature. I think our real problem is one of resources which are declining in availability, and which require more resources for extraction. Despite the United States’ long-standing love affair with the automobile, our country is outranked by a several nations in terms of cars per capita. However, The Atlantic points out that comparing the middle class across countries can be challenging. Council adopted on 6 April 2009 the climate-energy legislative package containing measures to fight climate change and promote renewable energy. Numerator: final energy consumption industry 101800 + final energy consumption transport 101900 + final energy consumption households 102010 + final energy consumption services 102035 + agriculture ao calculated as (final energy consumption agriculture 102030 + final energy consumption fisheries 102020 + final energy consumption other sectors 102040).
Any cross-country comparison of the distribution of final energy consumption between sectors will have to be accompanied by a relevant measure of the importance of the sector in the economy, as the sectoral shares also depends on the country's economic circumstances. Data have been traditionally compiled by Eurostat through the annual Joint Questionnaires (shared by Eurostat and the International Energy Agency) following a well established and harmonised methodology. The additional growth in future years provides money both to pay back the debt and to cover the additional interest. It is hard to find sufficient money for repaying the debt itself, not to mention the additional interest.
While there is theoretically enough money to repay the debt, interest costs are a drag on the economy. There is a cutback in government revenue because high oil prices make some goods using oil unaffordable, causing a cutback in production, and hence employment.
The Quantitative Easing (QE) which a number of governments are now using to hold down interest rates and make more funds available to lend cannot continue forever.

The amount of debt rose rapidly in the early 2000s,  when interest rates were lowered and lending standards relaxed.
In fact, the amount that was added through debt started decreasing in 2006 and 2007, after the Fed Reserve raised interest rates, in an attempt to choke back inflation caused by high oil prices.
Amounts shown in Figure 5, plus change in government debt added to the sum of (wages plus increase in household debt). The Bureau of Economic Analysis tells us that as well, as an item called Personal Consumption Expenditures. Wages (excluding government wages) as a percentage of GDP and personal consumption as a percentage of GDP, both based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, we are allowing bridges, roads, and dams to deteriorate, and not adequately maintaining electrical transmission infrastructure.
United States domestic investment compared to consumption of assets, as percentage of National Income.
Oil is used almost exclusively as a transportation fuel and  in many other applications as well (such as construction, farming, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and synthetic fabrics). People often say that our debt problem arises because we have a financial system in which money is loaned into existence, and as a result, requires growth to pay back debt with interest. Figure 4 above, showing “Per Capita Non-Government Wages,” provides a measure of how wages have changed.
Per capita non-government wages, calculated by dividing non-government wages from the Bureau of Economic Analysis by the US population, and then bringing to 2012$ using CPI-Urban price index, together with historical oil prices in 2012$, based on BP 2012 Statistical Review of World Energy data, updated with 2012 EIA Brent oil price data. Consumers find that the price of food (which uses oil in its production and transport) and of commuting is rising. Even outside discretionary sectors, employees may be laid off, if the cost of goods rises indirectly because of a rise in oil price. Eventually the government tax base is reduced, because of a smaller proportion of the population paying taxes. But experience seems to suggest that even more what happens is that the effects shift from sector to sector over time, as businesses “fix” their problems, leaving them to with wage-earners and governments. They also leave out various derivative amounts, such as expenditures by entrepreneurs, and expenditures of amounts that would be classified as rents and dividends.
Starting in 2005-2006, she decided to apply her skills to the question of how oil and other limits would affect the world.
That talk will probably have to be fairly toned down, given the different nature of the audience.
It gets spent by other people which boosts a national economy somewhere, hopefully the US economy.
Our financial system tends to send high priced oil to countries which use it more sparingly, such as China and India. It can perhaps help keep interest rates low for a while, but it can’t fix the resource depletion issue. The Carnegie paper states that the group looks at worldwide car usage as part of a bigger picture. In fact, our oil consumption is about twice as much as the Western European nations who outnumber us in cars per capita. Because the focus is on the reduction of final energy consumption and not on the sectoral redistribution of such consumption, the trends in the absolute values (in thousand tonnes of oil equivalent) should be preferred as a more meaningful indicator of progress.
Promotions are common and layoffs are few, so a debt such as a mortgage can easily be repaid. Interest payments tend to move money from debtors (who tend to be less wealthy) to creditors (who tend to be more wealthy). While there seems to be a large supply of oil available, it is at ever-higher cost of extraction, because of diminishing returns. The real issue is increasingly high oil prices, which adversely affect both government finances and wages. While there are claims that QE is a bridge to “when growth returns,” it is seriously doubtful that economic growth will ever return. Also, the sum of per capita wages and the increase in household debt, also on a per-capita basis, and also increased to 2012$ level using the CPI-Urban. I talk about this in Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, available here or here. Non-Government debt from Federal Reserve Z1 report, with changes adjusted to 2012 cost levels using CPI Urban.
We sometimes hear that in the United States, personal consumption of goods and services makes up more than 70% of GDP.
Some governments might be replaced, and the debt of prior governments repudiated by the new governments. This is calculated by taking wages for all US residents, subtracting wages of government workers, and dividing by the total US population (not just the number working). Often this will be because of higher transport cost, but it could because of another use of oil, such as by construction equipment, or as a raw material.

Governments also find a need to pay our more in direct costs–such as more for unemployment insurance, and more for asphalt (an oil product) for paving roads.
As such, it does not include debt owed to the Social Security system (because contributions that were collected by the Social Security system were spent on something else, and are not available to pay Social Security recipients) or to other pre-funded government agencies. The result is that we have changed our climate and that that is going to compound our other problems. Switching to another reasource can work if it is less expensive (like natural gas), but there is an issue of the time and cost required for the switch. The number is higher in almost every Western European nation, and even in places like Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. They associate the number of cars per capita to determine the strength of the middle class in a particular country.
These are disaggregated to cover industry, transport, households, services and agriculture. These are disaggregated to cover industry, transport, households, services and agriculture.The indicator can be presented in relative or absolute terms. However, even if the same sectors in two countries are equally important to the economy, the gross (primary) consumption of energy needed before it reaches the final user might draw from energy sources that pollute the environment in different ways. If the economy is growing, growth provides at least some additional funds offset to this loss of funds to debtors. Adding debt adds yet more interest payments, adding a further burden to wage earners, and creating a need for payback in the future, when wages are even lower.
If, in the aggregate, the amount of debt outstanding starts decreasing each year, spendable income is actually reduced below the level of wages, because in total, the balance is being reduced.
In fact, the time is coming when we will need to increase investment, or face loss of some of the infrastructure we take for granted.
In fact, the vast majority of wage growth has occurred when oil prices were $30 or less in 2012$. With higher costs of delivered products, companies find that demand falls, if they raise prices sufficiently to maintain profit margins. The big solution is one of lower population, but people will not want to cut way back on having children. Surprisingly enough, even countries that have been recently entrenched in financial crises like Iceland and Greece have a higher per-capita number.
When looking at the number of cars per capita versus household consumption per capita, the numbers are even lower.
The relative contribution of a specific sector is measured by the ratio between the final energy consumption of that sector and total final energy consumption calculated for a calendar year. Thus, from an environmental point of view, the final energy consumption of a sector should be analysed in that broader context.The sectoral breakdown of final energy consumption includes industry, transport, households, services, agriculture, fisheries and other sectors. Some loans will still “make sense,” but such loans will be a shrinking proportion of current loans, with long-term loans being especially vulnerable.
Adjustments, especially profound ones, are always difficult to incorporate and I see a much different world in the near future. It is a useful indicator which highlights a country's sectoral needs in terms of final energy demand. The projection data aggregates agriculture, fisheries and other sectors together with the services sector, and projections are based on such aggregation.
In the process, homeowners were able to “pull out” funds that they could use for any purpose they liked–fixing up the house, buying a new car, or going on a vacation.
In such a circumstance, neither prior land ownership nor prior debt would have much meaning. Fresh water can be obtained by desalination, but expensive water is not really a substitute for cheap water, for the same reason that expensive oil is not really a substitute for cheap oil. Money will either need to “expire,” or a high rate of inflation will need to be expected, making interest rates on loans very high. Alternatively, businesses can move operations to China or another low cost site of operation, to reduce costs, but this also leads to layoffs of US employees. In a shrinking economy, businesses will fail much more often, and workers will more often lose their (fossil fuel supported) jobs. The inclusion of agriculture and fisheries together with the services sector is however questionable given their divergent trends. It is worth noting that according to Eurostat final energy consumption in agriculture is not very reliable and it mainly means consumption from engines used for agricultural transportation.

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