From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. That’s the question Greg Heffley is asking as his town voluntarily unplugs and goes electronics-free. Now this beloved author digs deep into her own generative process to share her wisdom and unique perspective about creativity. But Reagan was grievously injured, forcing him to encounter a challenge that few men ever face.

With profound empathy and radiant generosity, she offers potent insights into the mysterious nature of inspiration.
As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. With tension building inside and outside the Heffley home, will Greg find a way to survive?
Could he silently overcome his traumatic experience while at the same time carrying out the duties of the most powerful man in the world?

However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why.

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