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Author: admin, 29.03.2014
The roads will get coated in sleet and snow with accumulations creating slick & hazardous driving conditions tonight and Sunday. There are many ingredients and factors that we are looking to make an accurate forecast for this storm system.
We will continue to update our snowfall forecast, or rather our accumulation forecast map as some areas will have sleet under the snow. As you can see, we have a pretty large 6 to 10 inch snowfall forecast for the KC metro area.
Wow my Frosty headed cousin which he was a poet, not just a post, and he doust now know it. Just my personal opinion… looking at the snowfall algorithm maps is not going to be very helpful. There are also a lot of good definitions of weather related terms to be found on the NOAA website.
This storm is not going to be the 1’+ storm, but heavy sleet is going to make roads and parking lots horrible. You can watch a loop of the water vapor imagery and see how the storm has come in towards the west coast and changed over the past 24hrs. I feel like Gary is just using the NAM and Canadian models and not even taking GFS into account, but he probably is. It appears both the GFS and NAM are for the most part finally agreeing with each other both with decent amounts of snow around 10″!! First, the mother glares angrily at her son as he stands a few feet away looking guilty and sheepish.Within seconds he is backed into a corner with a terrified expression as she roars her disapproval. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. The sleet will cut into snowfall totals and the trend is for this area to bne farther south.

There will likely be around a 50 mile wide area that is in this heavier band, and the highest snowfall accumulations will fall within this 50 mile wide area. A Temperatures will be in the single digits as we experience oneA of the coldest March days in our history.
This is one of the trickier ones of the season, perhaps the hardest forecast up to this point. It is not just intact this morning as it approaches Monterey, CA but it is still showing some nice strength. As the storm approaches there will be little waves of energy coming out and they will key on that tight frontal zone with enhanced lift in a small area. There will likely be a 50 mile wide band, or even tighter, perhaps a 25 mile wide band that ends up with the highest totals that could approach a foot or more.
Please be careful tonight as the roads will become slick & hazardous and it will be a risk to go out and travel. Truly off the rails with this one, may as well go for the record all be it a Stretch, could it not be to far Fetched?? With how unusual and complex the thermal profiles are supposed to be, in addition to an expected convective nature to the snow, etc…, there are simply too many variables for something like instant weather maps or wx caster to accurately depict. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems; barotropic systems, on the other hand, do not exhibit significant changes in intensity. On another channel, the other Gary, (Michelle Bachman’s bro), seemed to come up with the same forecast yesterday.
I didn’t see where either of them showed an impressive precipitation shield nor a strong negatively tilted low.
A It could be quite significant and it is something we will just have to wait and see where it lines up.
A To me, the most important factor is often the strength and track of the upper level storm that we can see on the 500 mb level the best.

A And, you can see tremendous amounts of subtropical moisture being pulled out of the Pacific Ocean. It is very rare for our area to have significant snow on radar and also have temperatures in the single digits. You will likely be able to get around, but the dangers are there even if you are a good driver. If a storm were to fully miss expectations or go way past them, this would have the potential to be one of them. Abc channel has been way off lately and I’m glad because their forecast would have been much worse than what we experienced.
Regardless, sleet is Kryptonite to snow removal for me, if it comes down first and accumulates. A The new data this morning is hanging on to just enough strength from this upper level storm to help hold the baroclinic zone near Kansas City. So, please, if you do travel, go slow and leave huge spacing between you and anyone else that is driving near you. It seems to me that if the storm was stronger maybe that could draw in colder air aloft into the system and push the warm nose south.
3″+ of just snow, hold the sleet, is what I am ordering for breakfast tomorrow morning.

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