First off, way too many people are counting on the head and shoulders pattern taking the market directly down to 850. Also, notice that the market dropped down to the 75 week moving average yesterday and bounced strongly. Finally, I'll point out that the February cycle bottomed on a reversal off the jobs report. At times daily volatility can cause one to lose the big picture from sight - focusing on trees is ok as far as one doesn't forget about the whole forest. This week's SPY chart clearly shows a continuation of the bearish trends, which were prevalent to last week. This week's short-term chart reveals that the June top is slightly below the one seen during in January. The price would need to move below the solid blue line in the chart for completion of the formation. The RSI is presently in the 30 range, which corresponded to local bottoms in early May and February.
The DIA ETF, a proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirms the above comments about the non-existence of the breakdown at this point. Consequently, the odds favor a breakdown from the recent head and shoulders pattern in a continued move downward. Let us say, for example, that gold has a 90% likelihood of increasing in price, silver has a 70% chance and mining stocks have a 60% chance and all of these markets would move up or down by the same amount during the move. All would be likelyto move higher since, in this example, all percentages are greater than 50. To address the subject of risk to reward ratio, let us go a step further with our previous illustration. The likely gain, or reward, would be $360 for gold since there is a 90% chance of the $400 profit, $280 for silver which has a 70% chance of the $400 profit, and $240 for mining stocks. Another example: gold has a 90% likelihood of rising 10% higher (and if it moves lower, it would move 10% lower), silver has 90% likelihood of rising 11% higher (and if it moves lower it would move 50% lower).
With 10% of losing and 20 trades the average value of losing trades would equal 2, so we would have on average 18 winning trades and 2 losing ones. Summing up, gold itself continues to be the preferred part of the precious metals sector at this point due to the tense situation on the general stock market. To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, I urge you to sign up for my free e-mail list. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM Investors and Speculators. Sumitomo and Usiminas, known fully as Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA, will establish a new company, with the Brazilian firm taking a 70 percent interest and the Japan side to own the remainder. Sumitomo is a Japanese diversified industrial group, which activities include coal and metal mining. Usiminas will most likely use the money to fund the expansion program of the mining complex in Serra Azul. The deal by Sumitomo demonstrates the increasing vertical integration and involvement by trading firms in the mining industry. Promissory notes issued by a state and declared the only legal tender are always doomed to depreciate to worthlessness because of the natural incentives and forces associated with governments.
By extension, it is unreasonable to advocate a standard for such notes, which is simply a state’s promise that its currency will always be redeemable in a specific amount of something valuable, such as gold. It could be argued, in fact, that a state-sponsored gold standard is far more dangerous than none at all, as it imbues citizens with a false sense of security. That being said, it is also true, and crucial to wise investing, that markets come in both “bull” and “bear” types. In contrast to the one-note approach, which has had an immense opportunity cost since 1980, competent market analysis can help you make many timely and profitable financial decisions in all markets, including gold and silver. This is a weekly chart and goes all the way back to 2008 showing a very large cup & Handle. The SP500 along with several other indexes have formed a head & shoulders patter and appear to be in the process of breaking down through the necklines. Anyways, the good news is that we can avoid these market crashes and actually take advantage of them using inverse ETFs which go up 2 or 3 times faster than what the market is declining. Currently I am in cash and have taken a couple scalp short trades taking advantage of the market falling on Tuesday and again today.
We will be addressing the issue of "Is Silver de-coupling from gold" shortly, in the Silver Forecaster newsletter. NDIA) -- Just as the Defense Department and its suppliers worry about dependence on foreign oil, they also must be concerned about growing needs — and potentially declining supplies — of rare earth metals.
Rare earth materials are used in commercial and military systems for their magnetic and other unique properties. According to a recent Government Accountability Office report, worldwide availability of these materials may be limited to a few overseas sources, primarily China. The presence of globally competitive and diverse supply chains would help to eliminate this vulnerability. The conventional wisdom in the industry is that China will continue to manage rare earth material production and exports to leverage its strategic supply position to create downstream manufacturing industries and jobs in China.
Global demand for rare earth products for green energy is forecast to grow at double-digit rates. Eventually, China will be faced with the decision of whether to expand rare earth production to meet global demand. Industry insiders and investors are betting China will continue its current policies of limiting production and exports. Among major manufacturers, the awareness and apparent level of concern over these issues remain generally low.
Nothing could be further from the truth.  Equipment manufacturers’ support is crucial to prevent a future crisis. Other developed countries have come to recognize the significance and depth of the problem sooner than the United States, and are taking measures to deal with it. In January came news that the Korean government has created The Korea Institute of Industrial Technology (KITECH) in part to address these issues. South Korea will reportedly spend $257 billion during the next nine years to secure and refine rare metals. On the upstream end of the supply chain, it can take eight to 10 years and at least $500 million to bring a newly discovered rare earth resource into production. The technology gap that was created when rare earth technology manufacturing and innovation moved offshore will have to be closed. The loans needed to move the process along must be backed by compelling business and financial plans.
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The world's reserve currency had a wobbly day yesterday before closing the trading session down another 34 basis points.  I wouldn't read a thing into the dollar's price action on Friday. It should be obvious to anyone that just a handful of bullion banks [JPMorgan and a couple of others] control the silver price.  Gold, too. On June 25th, SLAM announced it has signed up Casey Research for a 12 month sponsorship program. A sponsorship profile is posted here . As you can see this decline is now 7 days older than any decline during the last bear market.
Although any little piece of good news or "surprise" Fed announcement pre-market could send the market rocketing right through stops trapping shorts in a losing position.
Before this is all over I even expect Ben to start dropping dollars from his helicopter although they will call it rebate checks again. He already halted the most severe deflationary spiral since the depression in less than a year and aborted a left translated 4 year cycle with his printing press. And if that isn't enough to convince you the NY times had a feature article by Chicken Little, the sky is falling, end of the world himself Bob Precther. If sentiment has gotten so bad that the NY Times is giving interviews to Bob Prechter is must be time to back up the truck on the long side.
When Chalco, a Chinalco daughter, won the permit for the bauxite deposit aluminium prices were $3,000 a tonne compared with below $2,000 today. Condition for the development was the construction of a smelter in Australia, to prevent the ore from being shipped directly to China.
The Australian government is likely to reopen the permitting process for the deposit, giving other firms a renewed option to develop the deposit. Today’s announcement by the new Australian prime minister that the super profit tax will only cover coal and iron ore operations does increase the feasibility of the project. China already has the sixth-largest reserves of gold in the world (1,054.1 tonnes as of June 2010) according to official gold holding statistics but this deal could help them grow faster. China is one of the few countries in the world that could swing this deal because it has the available smelter capacity to handle this type of gold. The deal also reflects that the Chinese government wants more gold and it'll do what it takes to get it. SHIPPING QUOTE ADD TO CART + INQUIRY Request More Information Re: Piece 1342881442 Notify me of new products like this.
This universal approach can be applied today since we have just seen a massive decline in the prices of gold, silver, and mining stocks. There has been continued development of the head-and-shoulders pattern and this has been confirmed by an increase in volume.
Subscribers who seek to short the general stock market may wish to watch these signals closely as there may well be some good profit opportunities in this speculative activity.
Since the right shoulder in the pattern is lower than the left, the neck is likely skewed as well.
However the late January RSI in this range did not result in a local bottom until a week later.
If price were to move sideways and then lower or simply move lower immediately the implications would likely result in the SPY ETF below a level of $103 and then moving up on low volume would be a bearish signal. While writing about gold being preferred over silver we have meant much more than just the profit potential of both markets. The quantities, percentages and dollar amounts quoted are not in any way implied to be meaningful except in explaining the risk to reward ratio.
Speculation is not a one-time bet - it's a set of many bets, and what matters is if you lose or gain money in the long run. One could achieve over 5 times bigger profits just by paying attention to the "what if we're wrong" question.
The positive relationship for silver and mining stocks with the general stock market has declined somewhat.
Meanwhile, we have just sent out a Market Alert to our Subscribers describing short- and long-term implications of yesterday's downswing for Precious Metals Investors and Traders. A state cannot resist a method of confiscating assets, particularly one that is hidden from the view of most voters and subjects.
A gold standard of this type is only as good as the political promises behind it, reducing its value to no more than that of paper. Their long range plans are thus built upon an unreliable promise that the monetary measuring unit will remain stable. We could technically still see silver trade sideways for several months before it reaches the apex and is forced to breakout in either direction. I know if the market crashes again the majority of individuals who have worked hard, saved money and invested using mutual funds will lose most of their money in a fraction of the time it took to create the wealth, and that is a uncomfortable thought. These powerful trading tools if used correctly can make us a fortune while others are losing their shirts. I will be done around 10:30am ET once the jobs numbers come out and the market trades for an hour incase there is a nice short or long trade for some quick money - eh! GAO noted that the Defense Department is in the early stages of assessing its dependency on rare earth materials and is planning to complete a study by September 2010. That nation also is seeking to meet its own internal demand for rare earth enabled products such as electric vehicles, wind turbines and compact florescent lamps. Already the world’s largest market for automobiles and wind turbines (the two highest volume applications for rare earth magnets), China will continue to consume an ever-increasing percentage of its output. The House Committee on Science and Technology’s subcommittee on investigations and oversight also is looking into this issue. Japan, through its quasi-governmental entity, JOGMEC, is finalizing plans to assist Japanese companies to finance ownership positions in foreign rare earth properties, including a reserve in Kazakhstan. It plans to boost the number of local rare metal manufacturers from 25 to 100, build a dedicated regional industrial cluster, and establish a specialized merger and acquisition fund to help them buy foreign firms. Global collaboration of stakeholders from the United States, Europe, Japan, Korea and other interested nations, including China, should be encouraged. The interest rates and terms being dictated for loans are particularly onerous and would add significantly to the commercial risk and perhaps even kill many initiatives outright. Delaney is executive director of the Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association in Greenwood Village, Colo.
The company?s core projects spread across Western Australia and New South Wales in Australia. The profile has been compiled to bring to you a clear and an unbiased view of the company?s key strengths and weaknesses and the potential opportunities and threats. Once purchased, the highly qualified team of company analysts will comprehensively research and author a full financial and strategic analysis of Alkane Resources Limited, including a detailed SWOT analysis, and deliver this direct to you in pdf format within two business days (excluding weekends). I'll say again that bears hoping the head & shoulders pattern will drop straight down to 850 are probably going to get caught in an explosive intermediate degree rally. There is a good chance this correction (bull market) or leg down (bear market) has reached exhaustion. The powers that be are going to do everything they can to halt the bear and hurt the shorts.
In this case the benefit for the Australian citizens would be significantly lower than with domestic smelting.
In order to extract gold concentrate, it is treated with chemicals to strip the gold particles away and then smelted into bars, etc. China agreed to pay for the gold within days of delivery, much shorter than the industry standard of three-months. The government, which used to restrict how much citizens could own, is now running ads on state television encouraging the middle class to own gold.

Retail investment demand jumped 57 percent during the first quarter of this year despite prices hovering near all-time records.
It was recessionary gauge.just skyrocket design notch filter the chivy we have to coke, and indwell what it would chinless if our feet were bare. This bearish head-and-shoulders formation has and will probably continue to spell trouble for the general stock market. If the general stock market moves below the neck in this pattern and then rises slightly on low volume, shorting SPY ETF could be profitable.
It simply indicated that silver and mining stocks are more vulnerable to general stock market's weakness and therefore carry a higher probability of not moving higher. Therefore, gold would be preferable over silver and mining stocks even if all of them are likely to rise.
Let us further hypothesize that the upside potential or likely profits were $400 for each if our investments all reached their full potential. The statement gold has a lower risk-to-reward ratio that the other precious metals is thus supported by this example. So, let's see what would happen if there were many similar situations to the one described above.
Moreover, if the gains and losses were spread evenly, the first loss would occur after 9 winning trades.
The corresponding coefficient for gold with the general stock market still remains lower than the other metals. The investment will boost Sumitomo’s access to iron ore by around 10 times to 10 million tons a year, the company said.
Glencore, Trafigura) are becoming more active in the upstream markets, but eastern firms try to secure access over resources too. To date, the market’s choice throughout the centuries, wherever a free market for money has existed, has been and remains precious metal. It is all well and good to despise fiat money, but it is hardly useful to sit in gold and silver as if no other opportunities exist. That being said the market is way over sold here and we could get a bounce lasting a couple days soon. But zooming into the intraday charts I do have some concerns about a sharp sell off in the very near future. A heavy sell off from resistance as everyone bailed out of the investment sent oil tumbling and just this week oil started to break down from its bear flag.  We are looking at USO to possibly drop to the $25-27 area and oil to drop to the $60-62 level over the coming 2-3 months. It is important to buy some protection on the down side or get into cash until the dust settles as we can always buy back in, but we cannot get back lost money as easily. Players in this sector include Molycorp Minerals LLC, which has an existing mine and processing facility in California, and Australia’s Lynas Corp.
Simultaneously, formal business relationships need to be forged from among interested firms in the private sector.
Defense firms need to do a thorough analysis of their supply chains and identify rare earth related vulnerabilities. Alkane Resources projects include Leinster Region Joint Venture - nickel-gold project, and Nullagine iron and diamond project in Western Australia. The profile helps you formulate strategies that augment your business by enabling you to understand your partners, customers and competitors better. All 3 holes intersected visible gold and mineralized core intervals containing 10 to 15 % pyrite-pyrrhotite. It summarizes recently reported drilling results including visible gold from all 3 holes drilled on the Williamson gold deposit at Reserve Creek, part of a 10 hole diamond drilling program just completed in Ontario. At the very least one should tighten up stops so they don't lose whatever gains they might have. That level also happens to be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire cyclical bull move.
Part of the precious metals sector, namely silver and mining stocks are at particular risk when the general stock market is trending in ways seen today. 10%) the real difference is what happens if the move up does not materialize at all (only 10% probability). Please recall that the profit potential alone was bigger for silver, meaning that if we had only winning trades one would have biggest gains by investing in this particular market. What this means is that gold will generally be more resilient during a downswing in the main stock indices; it will most likely hold its value more so than silver and precious metals' stocks.
Harwood put it, “IOU nothing in particular,” reliability disappears and the arbitrary reigns.
This preference will undoubtedly remain until a better form of money is discovered and chosen. But that bounce will be sold and pulled back down as it looks like a new bear market is starting.
We recently bought gold at $1226 and sold out between $1255-1260 a couple days later because it's not just screaming at me as a great buy.
Last year, the Department of Commerce sponsored an interagency roundtable with industry looking at rare earth technology supply issues. They should be ready to support initiatives within their supply chains that will promote global competitiveness and diversity of supply. New South Wales region comprises of Dubbo Zirconia Project, Tomingley Gold Project, Orange Project, Peak Hill Gold Mine, Wellington Project, Bodangora and Cudal project. In addition to visible gold, significant zones of pyrite-pyrrhotite mineralization and quartz veining are represented in the drill core. Bans on short selling are surely coming again and I wouldn't put it past the government to massage the economic data even more than they already do to paint a better than reality picture. The point here is that up to this tenth trade gold investor would have smaller gains than his silver colleague, and the latter might argue that paying attention to losses makes no sense if markets are moving only up, and that the gold investor is wrong for preferring the yellow metal over the white one. Although the populace tends to retain its confidence in the currency for awhile thereafter, the ultimate result is chaos. I am not a gold bug, I'm a trader who finds low risk opportunities, gets in and out with maximum profits and minimal draw downs spending most of my time in cash.
Samples with visible gold are included in a total of 368 samples from the 3 Reserve Creek holes being prepared and shipped for gold analysis.
We get the feeling that at this point you would have preferred to own gold instead of silver even though it had smaller profit potential.
The silver investor would have no idea that after his next trade he will wish that he had joined his golden colleague in the first place. The profile also discusses the successful drilling program and high grade results delivered at Silverjack early this year.
Of course, you cannot go back in time, so you need to take the negative outcome into consideration before you put your money on the table.
All that excitement and greed could catch up to them if we see a complete market melt down again which will pull EVERYTHING down with it including gold and silver. Please visit our sponsor profile on Casey Research's website to learn more about the company and request information. In this case it would mean buying gold instead of silver even though it was likely to gain less during an upswing.
Moreover, those who invested in silver could brag about their higher profits not mentioning the fact that they were risking 50% of their money, while gold investors only risked 10%.

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