A report in the LA Times has said that over 1,000 older concrete buildings in Los Angeles would collapse if a major earthquake occurs.
Frequent calls have been made to list the buildings, but this has been rejected by officials. Scientists, although concerned for public safety, have decided not to make the information public. University scientists are more than happy to provide the City with a copy of their report but so far no officials have requested a copy. We encourage you to share and republish our reports, analyses, breaking news and videos (Click for details). The evolution of the California earthquake forecast model has happened as we learn more and more about the complex fault system under our feet. While the implications for building codes depends largely on where exactly structures are located, there are some important general conclusions we can draw. If driving, pull over to the side of the road and stop, avoid areas around power lines and stay in the car until the shaking has stopped.
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APPLE ENCRYPTION: DOES THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WANT TO DESTROY APPLE OR ENABLE MORE POLITICAL CORRUPTION? Second, one of my good friends, a certified welder and pyrotechnics special effects expert, kept telling me about these buildings in Los Angeles which were put together with a particular welding product and were unsafe.
This is not some haphazard guess at what may happen by politically-motivated hacks, it is solid research and the extrapolation by knowledgeable scientists and others; based on the work of some of today's smartest earthquake specialists, engineers and disaster coordinators. Because this result comes from the long period ground motions, the area where this type of damage is possible is relatively large and includes much of the urbanized areas of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino Counties.
For those wishing to read the report, it can be found at by clicking on the Reference Links section at the end of the blog entry. Prepare yourself and your family to deal with the aftermath of an earthquake such as the one described in The ShakeOut Scenario 2008 where you can rely on little or no public services.
If you work in a high-rise, you may wish to question your building's management to determine the type of building and if any earthquake retrofitting was preformed. And, of course, question your elected officials who control the information flow at the Los Angeles Department of Building and Safety to see if all of the steel moment frame buildings (especially those downtown and on the Wilshire Corridor) have been inspected and necessary repairs made.


The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. Although they have known about the danger for more than four decades, officials have failed to ensure that the owners make the buildings safe. A 2011 quake in Christchurch, New Zealand, more than two years ago toppled two concrete office towers, killing 133 people.
Geological survey has introduced a new earthquake forecast model that changes the forecasts for magnitude, location, and likelihood as compared to the 2007 forecast model. In the 1988 forecast, only 16 faults were considered while in 2015 350 faults were considered to create the model. Tall buildings and bridges are more at risk than previously thought whereas small single family houses are less likely to experience catastrophic damage. Get under sturdy desks and tables, stay away from windows, fireplaces, and hanging objects. I remember standing with my friend on the floor of a West Los Angeles high-rise and looking at a crack between the wall and the floor -- looking three stories straight down where the building's supports had separated from the frame. Jones, Richard Bernknopf, Dale Cox, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Suzanne Perry, Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein.
Jones, she is better known as Lucy Jones who, with her compatriot Kate Hutton are the most prominent fixtures on any serious report on earthquakes in California. It is impossible to determine how many and which buildings are the most susceptible without detailed structural analysis which is beyond the scope of this study. Being able to protect yourself, your loved ones and your neighbors in times of civil unrest, at least for a period of 7-days is of tantamount importance. Many of the 6,000 people killed in a 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, were in concrete buildings. Much of these recent fault finding efforts (pun certainly intended) were driven by the fact that the 1994 Northridge earthquake occurred on a previously unknown fault. And here's another no-no from Earthquake Lucy."I would not live in an unretrofitted concrete building. We never returned to that residence (it was red-tagged as unsafe) except to retrieve our belongings. There are two other important things that contributed to this revised forecast, the use of space based geology and the observation that earthquakes jump from fault to fault instead of being constrained to the fault that spawned them. Those are the worst killers around the world."But of course, thousands of people in greater Los Angeles live and work in such buildings.


Instead of several major fault-lines, the picture that emerges is of a vast interconnected fault system.
And despite warnings that go back decades, we are nowhere near coming up with a plan to make them safe.Jones, a Caltech seismologist, is about a month into a new job. Instead of conducting research and urging us to prepare for the Big One, she's now charged with getting us prepared.
After the Northridge quake killed 57 people in 1994, then-Councilman Hal Bernson, who led the way on bricks, wanted to require similar retrofitting of concrete buildings, but he ran into opposition from building owners and a lack of interest from city officials."I don't know how I got it through the first time, the way things work," Bernson said last week about the brick retrofitting.
The series also exposed how major developments had been approved without adequate study of nearby faults, including a large project in population-dense Hollywood.But there's been no consensus on what to do. Even among engineers, "There's a lot of uncertainty in the field about what makes a building bad" and what has to be done to make it safe.
Part of her work so far, she said, has been to study what other cities have done, and Jones thinks San Francisco has a lot to teach us.While Los Angeles spent years doing nothing, San Francisco spent years crafting the Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety, pulling together all interested parties and producing a 30-year readiness and retrofitting plan that's already being implemented. Billions of dollars will be spent, the costs shared by various parties, with the city offering financing incentives."When the ground shakes and buildings fall," then-Mayor Gavin Newsom wrote in a 2010 directive, "the damage and displacement of residents impacts the whole city.
Such structures might be the first to fall in a big San Andreas quake, and they would certainly be toppled in a Big One on the Hollywood fault. But their collapse would also damage nearby retrofitted buildings, not to mention pedestrians and people in vehicles.
Aside from multiple deaths and injuries, Jones predicts that power and water lines could be knocked out for months, threatening communication and firefighting capabilities.These are scenarios that we understandably don't care to dwell on. I'm fourth generation, and my great-grandparents are literally buried in the San Andreas fault. I want my sixth- and seventh- and eighth-generation descendants to go on living here, and we are here because of earthquakes," Jones said."We wouldn't have the mountains, we wouldn't have the moisture from the mountains holding back the ocean air. Without faults, we would not have oil, and the beginning of California was all about oil."I told Jones a story Hal Bernson told me about the big 1952 Bakersfield earthquake. He looked out the window of his clothing store at the time and saw his Ford truck several feet off the ground.He was not imagining things, Jones said.



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