Deschutes County in Oregon has updated its plan for dealing with natural disasters, including the potential Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake that recently received national attention. The updated Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan contains nearly 20 new suggestions for emergency preparedness, including new risk-reduction measures in the event of a large offshore earthquake.
The last quake from the Cascadia Subduction Zone was a 9.0 magnitude and created a tsunami that hit the Oregon coast in 1700. I wonder who had instruments in 1700 or if there were anyone but Indians living there in 1700.
Quote of NoteMassachusetts independent insurance agencies remain the distribution channel of choice for consumers in the Commonwealth for both personal and commercial lines. While each of the coverages below can be important, which coverage do you find most necessary for your "emerging affluent" (e.g. Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. The Homeland Security and Defense Center conducts analysis to prepare and protect communities and critical infrastructure from natural disasters and terrorism. Center clients include the Department of Homeland Security, Department of Defense, the Department of Justice, and other organizations charged with security and disaster preparedness, response and recovery.
The Homeland Security and Defense Center is a joint center of the RAND National Security Research Division and RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment. When defending an organization, cybersecurity professionals must choose from a large set of defensive measures while operating with a limited set of resources.
The best chance for peace in Syria is for external parties to persuade stakeholders to accept a ceasefire, with further negotiations on a political settlement to follow later. Layered security is key to modern aviation security, but the pieces of a multi-layered defense system may not combine as straightforwardly as expected.
As inmates near the end of their sentences for terrorism-related offenses, and with some individuals already freed, it's time to explore what considerations may be necessary. RAND Benchmark is an online, subscription-based application that enables police departments, sheriffs' offices, and other law enforcement agencies to measure officer performance, identify outliers in particular dimensions of performance, and mitigate legal risk. Part of the RAND Center on Quality Policing, the Police Recruitment and Retention Clearinghouse is a web-based resource that serves as a "one-stop-shop" for information about recruitment and retention specifically designed for the law enforcement community in order to promote evidence-based personnel planning. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous.
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The plan details how the county and cities of La Pine, Redmond, Bend and Sisters can reduce the destruction caused by disasters like wildfires and winter storms. Seismologists say there’s a 1 in 10 chance for a similar earthquake in the next 50 years. Center projects examine a wide range of risk management problems including coastal and border security, emergency preparedness and response, defense support to civil authorities, transportation security, domestic intelligence programs, technology acquisition, and related topics. When considering the behavior of an adaptive attacker, assessing the effectiveness of layered security becomes even more complex. Willis is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, director of the RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center, and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.
An application from a study area affected by mass movements is used as an example to portray the desirable relations between hazard prediction and disaster management. In Brebbia CA, ed., Risk Analysis IV, Southampton, Boston, WIT Press, pp 196–206Chung CF (2005) Using likelihood ratio functions for modeling the conditional probability of occurrence of future landslides for risk assessment. A cost-benefit framework identifies the economic and fiscal impacts of state-level immigration policies and how different stakeholders would be affected. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability.
However participants shared analytical and operational concerns on the implications of its use, especially in terms of integration of DRM cycle into long-term rural development (details in the following sections). Proceedings of the International Association for Mathematical Geology Annual Meeting IAMG 1998, Ischia, Italy, October 1998, pp 204–211Chung CF, Fabbri AG (1999) Probabilistic prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. The International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) definitions have been used for key disaster related terms[10]. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, vol 65, no 12, pp 1389–1399Chung CF, Fabbri AG (2001) Prediction models for landslide hazard using a fuzzy set approach.
Hazard: A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. A software approach provides the analytical structure and modeling power as a fundamental tool for decision making. Vulnerability: The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards. Risk: The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. Rivas, eds., Geomorphology and Environmental Impact Assessment, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 31–47Chung CF, Fabbri AG (2003) Validation of spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping.
Some disciplines also include the concept of exposure to refer particularly to the physical aspects of vulnerability. Resilience: The capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure.
New York, John Wiley & Sons, in pressFabbri AG, Chung CF, Jang DH (2004) A software approach to spatial predictions of natural hazards and consequent risks.
This is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase its capacity for learning from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures. Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
Southampton, Boston, WIT Press, pp 289–305Fabbri AG, Chung CF, Napolitano P, Remondo J, Zezere JL (2002) Prediction rate functions of landslide susceptibility applied in the Iberian Peninsula. Disaster Risk Management: The systematic process of using administrative decisions, organization, operational skills and capacities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters. This comprises all forms of activities, including structural and non-structural measures to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse effects of hazards. Southampton, Boston, WIT Press, pp 703–718.Hansson K (2004) The importance of pre mitigation strategies in development planning. Social Capital Social capital can be defined as the set of norms, social relations, and organisations that enable people in a society to coordinate action to achieve their objectives. The concept of social capital has been the subject of theoretical discussion for a long time. Recent research focuses on three aspects: the grass-root (communitarian) perspective, which emphasises the internal relationships between members of communities and common interest groups and encourages voluntarism, the network perspective, which emphasises the association of different communities, groups, and other forms of organisations (trade unions, professional organisations, information spreading enterprises, NGOs, political parties), and the institutional perspective, which emphasises the relationships between private organisations and their networks (the civil society) on the one hand, and the state on the other (role of the rule of law, of governance, of the rights of citizens, participation, transparency and accountability of the public sector, coordination of private and public sector initiatives). In Brebbia CA, ed., Risk Analysis IV, Southampton, Boston, WIT Press, pp 163–175Plattner T (2004) An integrative model of natural hazard risk evaluation. Proponents of decentralisation and devolution have argued that the empowerment of local authorities and strengthening of capacities of local institutions through building of horizontal relations of partnerships and alliances between local government authorities and civil society organisations have constituted a viable strategy for the creation of social capital at the community level.
The process of decentralisation In order to gain a clearer understanding of the link between decentralisation as a process of social capital formation and the participatory design of disaster preparedness strategies it is essential first to discuss and define the basic concepts of decentralisation.
Field staff in this case merely implements central government directives and have no initiating or decision-making powers.
In this case, all sub-national levels of government (provincial and district) are agents of the central government’s executive branch. Thus, the sub-national or local units of government are headed by appointees of central government directly responsible to a central government agency such as the ministry of local government or of internal affairs.
Such parastatal bodies are semi-independent and are frequently located outside the normal structures of government.
They are free to set up their own salary structures, which are often higher than those of the civil service in order to attract professional and technical personnel.
Where international aid agencies have sponsored well-defined large-scale projects, they have sometimes insisted on the creation of such parastatal or public corporation bodies in order to by-pass government bureaucratic procedures and to avoid the spread into other sectors of funds earmarked for specific projects. The five fundamental characteristics of devolution identified by Cheema and Rondinelli are: 1. It involves the transfer of responsibilities, authority, assets, and financial resources to lower levels of government, such as provincial or district councils.

Local governments to which authority and resources are devolved acquire the power and autonomy with respect to setting their own rules, goals and objectives, and implementing their own policies and strategies, and to allocating resources to different activities, within the domain assigned to them. In addition, they often are given authority to raise financial resources, through taxes, and in some cases, borrow on the capital markets. The devolution of planning, implementation, and resource management responsibilities to civil society organisations is the most effective means of facilitating people’s empowerment and participation. Hazard Profile: Severe flooding occurs yearly with damage to infrastructure, agriculture and farming (average number of farmers affected per event is 1500). Households along rivers are at high risk, vulnerable households are forced to live there (Table 10 pg 14).
Financial losses may range from 75-100% of the capital invested on farming on fishing activities. Recent Disaster covered by Case Study: Several Typhoons between 1990 and 2003 (detail on 2000 and 2003 Typhoons) Land tenure, land use patterns and livelihood strategies Economy predominantly based on agriculture and aquaculture. Most farmers do not own farming land, in 2 of the selected sites 50% of agricultural land owned by one person. At slack times of the farming cycle some work in sugarcane field some in construction jobs.
The livelihood pattern of most of the rural households is fragile; the periodic weather related shocks keep the livelihood systems from crisis to recovery on a continuous basis. In non-disaster times, DREAM is involved in activities aimed at reducing risks for floods, such as river and coastal clean-up, and reforestation.
Civic and Religious Organizations The municipal government also entered into agreements with some civic and religious organizations to assist, in the spirit of volunteerism, in relief and rescue during emergencies, as well as to participate in the formulation of the Municipal Disaster Preparedness Plan. The Catholic Church also shares its financial resources to the BDCC through its parish pastoral council to augment resources for relief operations The Municipal Economic Council (a private sector business consortium) The Municipal Economic Council was created by the Municipal Executive Order No. It is chaired by the municipal mayor and co-chaired by representatives of business proprietors engaged in rice retailing, groceries, pharmacies, dry goods (clothing, utensils, etc.), fuel stations and construction supplies. All accredited business proprietors in the Dumangas Public Market are members of the council. The council advocates related programs, projects and activities to foster municipal economic growth and development, as well as recommends to the Municipal Mayor and the Sangguniang Bayan policies that would enhance the operations of the business sector as well as benefit its clientele. Its key role in times of disaster is to provide on loan basis goods and items required for disaster response. Being a member of the Local Special Bodies, financial support for its operation is provided by the Municipality of Dumangas. It performs the function of advising the President on the status of the national disaster preparedness programme, disaster operations and rehabilitation.
The NDCC is chaired by the Secretary of National Defence and has for its members almost all the cabinet members and the Secretary-General of the Philippines National Red Cross. The Office of Civil Defence (OCD) provides the operations centre and secretariat functions as well executive-director functions through its Administrator. The NDCC has taken on an All-Hazards Approach in Disaster Risk Management which features the following strategies and approaches: 1. The NDCC is replicated at the regional and local levels and they function substantially like the NDCC, except that they operate and utilize their own resources at their respective levels. The RDCCs and the local DCCs constitute the core of the disaster management system and it is at this level that emergency is most felt and protection, rescue, evacuation, relief and rehabilitation operations are launched and carried out. The DCCs are expected to embark on proactive activities such as dissemination of information on natural disasters and disaster preparedness, identification of evacuation centers, upgrading of facilities of identified evacuation centers and assignment of responsibilities per member agency during times of emergency. The Dumangas MDCC was re-organized in 16 October 2001 through Municipal Executive Order No. It is composed by the Municipal Mayor as Chairman, the Station Commander of the Philippine National Police as Vice-Chairman and Action Officer, with representatives from the private sector, municipal officials tasked with specific emergency functions, and National officials assigned in the municipality as members.
Submits reports and recommends for allocation of needed resources The Disaster Operations Center is the facility where field activities are monitored and controlled. Resources Management Unit – which identifies and secures possible sources of funds for disaster victims, and gathers the necessary statistics on resources such as food, clothing, construction materials, medical supplies, transportation and other relief and rehabilitation items.
Implements tasks at community level: preparedness and evacuation alerts, preliminary needs assessments, implementing evacuation plans, rescue, delivery of relief goods.
Aid, relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction and other works or services in connection with calamities which may occur during the budget year or previous years’ past two plans b. Capital expenditures such as purchase of equipment for pre-disaster operations and rehabilitation 2.
Priority I - For urgent and emergency relief operations and emergency repair and rehabilitation of vital public infrastructures and lifelines damaged by calamities occurring within the budget year e.g. Priority II - For repair, rehabilitation and reconstruction of other damaged public infrastructures, which are not emergency in nature but are necessary for disaster mitigation c.
Priority III - For pre-disaster activities outside the regular budgets of line agencies and proposed capital expenditures for pre-disaster operation 3. The entire disaster management system is built on local resources with trust and motivation of participating communities with a strong level of social capital. The establishment of specialized task forces to carry out warning, communication, transport, rescue, evacuation, supply, relief, medical, fire damage assistance, security and over all damage control at the barangays level revealed that almost each household participated in at least one of the specialized functions and thus the system could involve the entire community C1- Recognizing weakness in preparedness activities local governments initiates partnerships with civil society and private sector organizations.- Training for volunteers and BDCC in rescue and search. LGUs are also responsible for enforcing environmental protection laws and for preparing extensive land-use plans C2 3. Safety nets (informal) A3Informal traditional relationships between customers and suppliers (suki) and tenants-landlords may result in support, and protection. Bayanihan is the spirit of volunteerism in the community, where people put together their strengths or resources to help out a person or a family in need, whether in times of harvest in the fields, or when a house damaged by typhoon needs to be repaired, or in times of crisis.
Financial Services and Insurance systems (formal) A4Local Government Code requires establishment of local calamity funds through local revenues.
A Memorandum Circular issued by the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) and the Department of Budget and management (DBM) on 20 March 2003, however, provides for the use of the LCF for preparedness activities for human-induced threats, including terrorism.
If unused during the budget year, this fund could only be used for disaster preparedness activities, and is added to the municipality’s general fund for the subsequent year.
A Memorandum Circular had been issued by the DILG and DBM in March 2003 clarifying that the LCF can be used for preparedness activities natural and human-induced threats, including terrorism (pending in PHI congress).
Barangays have their own calamity fund (5% of the barangay income) for disaster relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction.
Municipal Development Fund: The municipal development fund comes from the 20 percent of the internal revenue allotment from the National government. The IRA is appropriated to local government units proportionate with the population and land area.
This development fund supports the municipality’s programs in the agriculture, health, social welfare, infrastructure, environmental management, disaster preparedness, and tourism and youth sectors. Recognizing that disaster management is a key component of development, the municipal mayor utilizes the development funds to support disaster management in the relevant sectors (e.g.
Even if credit facilities are available, the poor households could not avail it due to lack of collateral arrangements. The subsequent disasters compel them to borrow from informal credit markets with high interest rate of 20 to 30 % per month.Other sources of funds include special budgetary allocations from the National Government, donations from businesses and the private sector, and assistance from other government and non-government agencies. Municipal Economic Council: As agreed with members of the Economic Council, the municipality acquires goods and materials for disaster relief and rehabilitation on loan.
Awareness raising A5Awareness in the two flood-prone barangays (Balud and Maquina) is high. Most would initiate preparatory actions based on the river conditions observed, even when an official warning has not been issued. Local institutions could be entrusted with restoration of this infrastructure with participation of communities. Our discussions with affected household revealed that they were willing to contribute labour and local materials and the local government could provide some resources and supervision and the National Government could have financial and technical resources. VulnerabilitAssessments (pre-disaster) A10 B10 C10 RESPONSE and REHABILITATION 11.
To re-orient the approach to disaster management in a systems mode the MDCC was re-organized in October 2001. Key agencies with resources and functions relevant to the MDCC functions were involved to lead the different MDCC units (e.g.
PNP for Assistant Chairman, the Disaster Operations Center and the Intelligence and Disaster Analysis unit, Sangguniang Bayan for resources unit as their resolution is needed for mobilization of the local calamity fund, DECS for evacuation since school buildings are used as evacuation centers, etc.).

The number of task units was reduced from ten to five, merging units whose functions are inherent in the lead agencies (e.g. Prepares evacuation center and supports transfers to it.- Damage and needs assessment- Delivery of primary goods to community MDCC - On the basis of the preliminary needs assessment, declaration of state of calamity (necessary to mobilize calamity funds). The Mountain Tigers received professional training in search and rescue operations through a provincial level NGO.
The organizational arrangements at the municipal and barangay levels were systematically reorganized by learning lessons by periodic natural hazard events. Every natural hazard event triggered institutional changes for managing subsequent disasters better. Prior to November 1998, the institutional arrangements were weak to monitor hazard and the emergency situation. The local government relied on PAGASA weather updates and typhoon advisories broadcasted from commercial radio stations, police reports on any flood-related incident, and motorists’ information on impassable roads (47).
The local governments being closer to the communities were able to tailor national norms and plans to match the needs of the communities.
Arrangements were made with various agencies and training provided (system following 1999 is the one described in the case study) The improvements resulted in reduced lead-time of more than 48 hours of impending events and enhanced the community and household level preparedness to withstand the impact of natural hazards. The establishment of specialized task forces linked to municipal level local government and NGO and private sector systems with well orchestrated coordination arrangements resulted in efficient delivery of disaster management services. For example, the relief assistance reached the communities at the evacuation centres within 3 to 6 hours. The households were able to preserve not only the lives of their members but also their livestock assets and ensure safety and security of household assets. The interview with the community members revealed that preserving livestock assets could greatly help earlier recovery when compared to previous hazards (48).- Learning and restructuring. The municipal officials mentioned that expenditure on relief has come down significantly on a household basis in recent years.
Key agencies with resources and functions relevant to the MDCC functions lead the different MDCC units.
The number of task units was reduced from ten to five, merging units whose functions are inherent in the lead agencies and to make coordination more effective (48). Many respondents said that now they feel less threatened although they know that their lives and physical properties may be endangered. Their confidence comes from the knowledge that they will somehow recover from a natural disaster.
The forecasts respondents get from the radio, television and the municipal government have also made them more confident that, in the wake of a natural hazard, they will have ample time to secure their animals, families, homes, movable properties, if not their crops.
The DREAM volunteers received specialized training search and rescue from 505th Search and Rescue Group of the 502nd Search and Rescue Squadron of the Philippine Air Force. As these community members are available within the community, their services are available continuously without any additional costs to the local government and are hence sustainable Key Gaps And Recommendations - Household vulnerability: Relief Assistance is distributed equally among all the households. While formal political institutions do not address differential vulnerability of communities, the informal social networks act as a conduit to redistribute relief assistance to the most vulnerable households. While community help could partially address most vulnerable households during crisis periods, it seldom addresses their recovery needs.
Relief assistance for rehabilitation of agriculture is given in the form of seeds to the affected farmers who own the land. As most of the farmers are tenants, they do not have access to this kind of relief assistance which would enable them to recover fast from disaster impacts. The rehabilitation assistance is calculated and provided with reference to absolute and not relative loss due to disasters.
The poor households incur disproportionately greater losses when compared to the total value of losses suffered by wealthier households.
Hence, there is a need to develop a mechanism to provide rehabilitation assistance considering the capacity to recover rather than total loss incurred by households. The local institutions (in particular social networks) could articulate this requirement of the poor and vulnerable (51).
The reconstruction of these infrastructure facilities are not under the control of local institutions but sectoral institutions of the national government agencies.
Allocation of resources to local government does not include criteria to benefit disaster prone areas (details pg 54).
Resource constraints proved to be a major barrier for local government to integrate disaster prevention to development planning (54). National policy requires that calamity funds may only be used for relief and rehabilitation.
A request has been made to the Department of the Interior to allow for savings to be allocated for preparedness. The local governments have already developed an integrated disaster management and development plan covering all cases of disasters. The National policies are yet to recognize and factoring this approach of integrity disaster management into development planning. Most loans, from the organized institutions like banks go to the better off and middle-income groups in rural communities. This is due to collateral requirements and poor people are forced to borrow money, from relatives without interest or local money lenders with very high interest rates, especially during lean seasons. They may use this money mostly for unanticipated expenditures like medicines for sick family members.
While everyday risk is a constant threat to livelihoods, the periodic weather-related shocks keep the livelihood systems from crisis to recovery on a continuous basis (19 and 60).- Flood event in May 2003 showed that the system is not able to anticipate extreme events. The most important crops are maize, sorghum, rice, beans, sweet potatoes, groundnuts and vegetables.
Money from these transactions is used to access health assistance, to buy food in time of hunger and to pay children’s school fees Main actors in DRM at community level INGC (National institute for Disaster Management) Permanent state institution acting as a coordinating body under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation recently being restructured under the 2001 Law of Disaster Management (see next section).
During the 2000 floods the INGC and the CVM were responsible for coordination and distribution of emergency assistance nationwide.
However, in Sofala province, due to problems related to high corruption and lack of effective coordination the INGC failed to reach its beneficiaries. Due to the same reasons some donor organisations ignored the legitimacy and the role of the INGC, deciding to distribute emergency assistance directly to the affected people. It is not completely true that the INGC was not there, but compared with the actions and impact of the presence of NGOs it was not visible. Various NGOs have been working collaboratively or assisting the INGC to develop activities targeting the improvement of professional and administrative and technical skills. The Búzi district commission reports to the provincial commission and these reports in turn to the national headquarters. The Red Cross is developing projects in Búzi in areas such as early warning, health, water treatment and sanitation. Through the use local volunteers, the Red Cross works in coordination with the local administration and health authorities to combat water-borne diseases such as malaria and cholera. The Red Cross convenes meetings with the local communities to discuss matters such as natural hazards and mechanisms of prevention of water-borne disease, and assists in mobilising communities to abandon high-risk zones.
After the floods, through its Proder project (Rural Development Project in Sofala), the GTZ participated in school and health centre rehabilitation, and assisted the government in implementing local disaster risk management. The GTZ was the first organisation to implement a disaster management strategy based at community level, by establishing local committees for risk management in Búzi. In each community a nucleon or committee, consisting of seven volunteer members, represents the GRC. This committee works in coordination with local traditional authorities, mobilising people living in low-lying areas to move to safer places. The Catholic Church commissions within the church have developed a range of different assistance procedures. The Charity Commission is the most important of these, and is responsible for collecting goods for distribution to affected people. The church also works as an important instrument for disaster early warning, and for encouraging people to adopt preventive measures.

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